Critical Insights on Maine TM Tracking Survey ~ ing 15 ~ Residents Views on Politics, the Economy, & Issues Facing the State of Maine Full Service Market Research and Public Opinion Polling Portland, Maine 411 October April May 1 15 1
Introduction October May 1 2
Background & Methodology Each ing and, Critical Insights conducts the Critical Insights on Maine TM Tracking Survey, a comprehensive, statewide public opinion survey of registered voters which covers a variety of topics of interest to business, government, and the general public. Critical Insights on Maine TM has been documenting the attitudes, perceptions, and preferences of Maine s residents for over 19 years, making it the longest running, consistently administered Tracking Survey in the Northeast. In addition to general interest items (the results of which are released to the media as a public service) the survey also includes a number of proprietary items included in the poll on behalf of sponsoring entities, with results of those items released only to those sponsors. For the current wave of the study, Critical Insights completed a total of 1 telephone interviews (including cell phones) with randomly selected voters across the state between March 24 th and March 29 th, 15. With a sample of 1 interviews, results presented here have an associated sampling error of +/- 4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All interviews were conducted with self-reported registered voters; final data were statistically weighted according to relevant demographics to reflect the voter base in Maine. On average, the entire survey instrument including both general interest items and all proprietary subscriber items was 17 minutes in administrative length. This document presents findings from general interest items included in the current round of measurement, with comparisons made as appropriate to results from past iterations of the Critical Insights on Maine TM Tracking Survey. 3
Research Highlights October May 1 4
The Economy October May 1 5
Percent Economic concerns persist as the most pressing issues among Mainers, with the economy in general and unemployment worries, respectively, topping the list of perceived issues facing Maine. Consistent with findings over the last two years, roughly half of Maine voters are concerned with one of these economic-focused issues. In your opinion, what is the most important issue facing Maine today? * 1 8 '4 '5 '5 '6 '6 '7 '7 '8 '8 '9 Economy 14 17 16 12 16 13 16 36 59 35 31 33 33 31 35 36 44 26 3 22 31 25 Unemployment 25 23 17 17 14 17 17 6 12 27 11 27 3 3 44 27 24 18 23 21 Taxes 25 21 21 34 24 18 1 8 7 1 9 8 5 4 4 3 7 5 7 4 8 Education 4 4 4 5 5 7 9 2 1 3 3 7 6 3 4 3 4 8 5 5 7 7 Health care 13 7 12 9 12 14 15 5 7 7 17 7 5 7 3 7 4 5 14 6 3 5 Welfare programs 1 1 1 3 1 2 2 8 4 4 '9 '1 '1 '11 '11 '12 '12 '13 '13 '14 '14 '15 * Top trended responses shown. 6
Percent Though job loss remains the leading near-term financial concern for Mainers, it has dropped 9 percentage points since last to be more consistent with prior measurements. Concerns about taxes have nearly doubled since six months ago, while remaining responses are highly fragmented, suggesting that a fairly diverse set of financial worries are also weighing on the minds of Mainers. As you think about the next 6 months what economic or financial situations concern you the MOST? * 5 3 1 '1 '11 '11 '12 '12 '13 '13 '14 '14 '15 Job loss 32 17 25 18 16 16 14 27 18 Taxes 15 4 5 6 7 12 7 9 8 14 Health care 11 1 9 11 15 15 25 11 6 1 Gov't spending/debt 5 5 8 6 7 9 6 8 6 1 Economy 12 7 13 9 1 7 8 9 1 9 Cost of living 19 18 21 19 16 15 12 6 8 Price of gas/utilities 12 32 16 21 22 11 9 8 4 8 Education 7 5 6 7 5 11 6 5 4 7 * Top tracked responses shown. Multiple responses accepted. 7
Percent In results identical to one year ago, and a significant decline from 14, one-quarter of Maine voters feel we will see economic improvement over the coming year. More than half of voters believe things will remain roughly the same into 16, an uptick from six months ago. Now think about the future of the economy. In the next 12 months, do you think the economy will be... 1 8 '4 '5 '5 '6 '6 '7 '7 '8 '8 '9 Better 3 14 12 17 18 16 12 15 35 46 43 43 35 34 3 41 41 34 3 25 33 25 About the same 41 33 33 35 44 46 35 26 26 27 34 33 38 36 41 37 27 45 51 5 55 Worse 25 51 53 44 31 37 49 55 33 24 19 24 25 17 1 22 22 21 14 19 '9 '1 '1 '11 '11 '12 '12 '13 '13 '14 '14 '15 8
National Politics October May 1 9
Percent In results consistent with the nation as a whole, and an increase of seven percentage points compared to six months ago, one-third of Mainers claim to have a positive sense of where the country is headed. A majority still see things headed in the wrong direction. All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? Right Direction Wrong track Mixed/Don't know 1 8 8 3 9 16 15 52 59 47 59 33 37 45 32 25 9 25 15 45 74 66 3 17 19 8 9 9 7 8 3 1 6 8 14 19 15 14 5 59 53 59 62 69 65 55 64 54 59 62 53 42 41 33 38 3 34 28 3 26 28 29 26 18 3 33 Optimism about the country s direction is most acute among higher SES Mainers as well as self-reported Democrats. Among the Mainers who are pessimistic on the country s direction, feelings about heading in the wrong direction are strongest among lower SES Mainers and Republican voters. ***Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, March 11, 13-14, 1 **Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Oct. 14-18, 1 *Source: AP-GfK poll. May 5-9, 11 ^ Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Oct. 6-1, 11 ^^ Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, April 13-17, 12 ^^^ Source: AP-GfK poll, Oct. 19-23, 12 # Source: CBS News/New York Times poll, April 24-28, 13 ## Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Sept. 5-8, 13 ### Source: ABC News/Washington Post poll, April 24-27, 14 ~ Source: CBS News Poll. Oct. 3-6, 14 ~~ Source: CBS News Poll. March 21-24, 15 1
Percent Percent Support for both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination for President among Maine voters is merely half of that reported for the nation as a whole. I m going to mention a number of people who might seek the Democratic nomination for President in 16. For each one, please tell me, yes or no, whether you could see yourself supporting that person for the Democratic nomination for President in 16. If you don t know the name, please just say so. Support for Clinton is predominant among women and more highly-educated and higher-income Mainers. HILLARY CLINTON Not surprisingly, views on all potential candidates tend to split according to party lines. JOE BIDEN Yes, could support No, could not support Don't know the name Unsure 1 1 5 13 2 8 47 Yes, could support No, could not support Don't know the name Unsure 1 3 2 7 4 8 64 86 46 54 25 US * Maine Residents US * Maine Residents * Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, March 1-5, 15 11
Percent Percent Elizabeth Warren garners one-quarter of Maine voter support for the Democratic nomination for President, compared to fully half of US residents. Large blocs of both Maine and US residents are unfamiliar with either Warren or Bernie Sanders. I m going to mention a number of people who might seek the Democratic nomination for President in 16. For each one, please tell me, yes or no, whether you could see yourself supporting that person for the Democratic nomination for President in 16. If you don t know the name, please just say so. The likeliest supporters of Warren include the 65 and older age band, higher SES Mainers, and the 1 st Congressional District. ELIZABETH WARREN Yes, could support No, could not support Don't know the name Unsure 1 3 6 BERNIE SANDERS Yes, could support No, could not support Don't know the name Unsure 1 4 5 8 29 17 31 8 54 46 35 21 35 51 US * 27 Maine Residents 21 US * 14 Maine Residents * Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, March 1-5, 15 12
Percent Percent There is a significant lack of awareness among both Maine and US residents for either Jim Webb or Martin O Malley. I m going to mention a number of people who might seek the Democratic nomination for President in 16. For each one, please tell me, yes or no, whether you could see yourself supporting that person for the Democratic nomination for President in 16. If you don t know the name, please just say so. JIM WEBB MARTIN O MALLEY 1 Yes, could support No, could not support Don't know the name Unsure 4 4 1 Yes, could support No, could not support Don't know the name Unsure 2 3 8 8 57 67 67 72 24 15 US * 24 6 Maine Residents 11 US * 21 4 Maine Residents * Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, March 1-5, 15 13
Percent Opinions are evenly split among Maine voters in terms of whether they would be proud to have Hillary Clinton as President, while US residents are a bit more enthusiastic. Thinking of the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think it applies or doesn t apply to Hillary Clinton: Someone you would be proud to have as President. Applies Doesn't apply Unsure 1 8 1 42 7 48 Again, women and more highly-educated Mainers tend to be more supportive of Clinton than others, as do Democratic voters. 57 45 US * Maine Residents * Source: CNN/ORC Poll, March 13-15, 15 14
Percent Again, Maine voters are divided in their views on Hillary Clinton using personal email while she served as Secretary of State, though a sizable bloc do not offer an opinion. Do you think that Hillary Clinton did or did not do anything wrong by using a personal email address and home-based server to send and receive emails while she served as Secretary of State? Did something wrong Did not do anything wrong Unsure 1 8 2 47 16 44 Men, lower SES Mainers, and GOP voters have a greater likelihood of saying Clinton was wrong to use personal email. 51 Conversely, subgroups more likely to feel she did nothing wrong include women, higher SES Mainers, and selfreported Democrats. US * Maine Residents 15
Maine Politics October May 1 16
Percent In results consistent with the 14 iteration of Critical Insights on Maine TM, fully 4-in-1 Mainers currently have a positive sense of where Maine is headed, though 47% do not (+5 percentage points since six months ago). All in all, do you think things in Maine are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? Right Direction Wrong track Mixed/Don't know 1 8 7 59 34 ing '9 17 21 52 49 62 3 3 '9 ing '1 15 45 23 23 '1 31 ing '11 19 21 18 42 37 '11 ing '12 42 '12 26 44 3 ing '13 16 47 35 '13 48 34 18 ing '14 21 42 13 47 37 '14 ing '15 Views on the direction Maine is headed tend to split according to party lines and gender. Indeed, 59% of Democrats claim the state is off on the wrong track (vs. 3% of Republicans who feel similarly) and 53% of Republicans believe Maine is headed in the right direction (vs. 31% of Democrats). Additionally, 45% of men believe the state is headed in the right direction (vs. 36% of women), while 51% of women feel Maine is off on the wrong track (vs. 41% of men). 17
For the % of Maine voters who feel the state is headed in the right direction, one-third attribute this belief to Gov. LePage and his policies, and another one-third to economic improvement. All in all, do you think things in Maine are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? Mixed/Don't know 21% Why do you say that? * Right Direction (n=2) Wrong track 47% Right direction % Good Governor/Governor doing good job 31% Gradual improvement in economy 3% Balancing budget 16% General optimism 11% * Top responses shown. Multiple responses accepted. 18
However, among the 47% of voters who feel Maine is off on the wrong track, Gov. LePage and his policies play a contrasting role, with 36% blaming the governor for this sense that Maine is on a downward trajectory as a state. All in all, do you think things in Maine are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? Right direction % Why do you say that? * Wrong Track (n=28) Mixed/Don't know 21% Wrong track 47% Bad Governor/Disapprove of Governor 36% Partisan politics 16% Bad economy 9% No jobs/job outlook bleak 7% Program cuts/mainecare cuts 4% Over taxing/over spending/debt 4% * Top responses shown. Multiple responses accepted. 19
Governor LePage s job performance is currently at a 41% approval rating, consistent with results observed previously. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor LePage is handling his job as governor of Maine? ing '15 41 48 11 '14 ing '14 '13 ing '13 '12 ing '12 '11 45 39 39 37 42 43 47 49 49 53 53 47 48 6 12 8 1 12 9 12 Support for Gov. LePage continues to be strongest among men (49%), residents of Northern Maine (5%), and Republican voters (75%). Disapproval tends to be most acute among women (55%), Southern (54%) and Downeast Mainers (53%), and self-reported Democrats (75%). '11 31 54 15 % % % % 8% 1% Approve Disapprove Don't know/refused
Other Issues October May 1 21
More than half of Maine voters polled disagree with Governor LePage s proposal to pay higher reimbursements to communities spending less on General Assistance, versus one-third who agree. General Assistance, administered by towns and cities and partly reimbursed by the State, provides shortterm help for basic needs such as food, shelter, and medicine for people who do not qualify for other public assistance. Do you agree or disagree with Governor LePage s two-year state budget proposal which would pay higher reimbursement rates to cities and towns that spend less on General Assistance? Under this proposal, Portland, Bangor, and Lewiston are projected to lose funding. Disagree 54% There are significant differences for this issue across party lines: Agree 35% 56% of GOP voters agree with LePage s proposal (vs. only 18% of Democratic voters who feel similarly), and 73% of Democrats disagree (vs. only 29% of Republicans). Don't know 11% 22
Views on whether the City of Portland mismanaged General Assistance funds are split, and 37% of Maine voters declined to offer an opinion. Do you think that Portland has mismanaged the money from the General Assistance program to help the City s homeless population? No 34% Residents of Maine s 1 st Congressional District are significantly more likely than those in CD 2 to state that Portland mismanaged the money (35% vs. 22%, respectively). Yes 29% Don't know 37% Additionally, Republican voters have a greater tendency to say the City mismanaged funds (36%), while Democrats are more likely to state they did not (48%). 23
Sample Profile October May 1 24 24
Stated Voter Political Affiliation Republican 27% Democrat 34% Unenrolled/Other 32% DK/Ref. 7% 25
Percent Socio-Demographic Profile 1 8 47 53 12 29 18 23 17 24 35 18 Gender Age Education 26
Percent Residential Profile 1 8 36 14 19 7 22 14 18 None One Two Three or more < $35K $35K to < $5K $5K to < $75K $75K+ Children in household Household income 27