Critical Insights on Maine TM Tracking Survey ~ Spring 2018 ~ Voters Views on the Economy, Ballot Initiatives, and Other Issues Facing the State of Maine 2 Commercial Street Portland, Maine 041 Telephone: 207-772-40 www.criticalinsights.com
Introduction
Background & Methodology Each spring and fall, Critical Insights, a division of the Digital Research Group, conducts the Critical Insights on Maine TM tracking survey, a comprehensive, statewide public opinion survey of registered voters that covers a variety of topics of interest to businesses, government, and the general public. Critical Insights on Maine TM has been documenting the attitudes, perceptions, and preferences of Maine s residents for more than 20 years, making it the longest-running consistently-administered tracking survey in the Northeast. In addition to general-interest items (the results of which are released to the media as a public service), the survey also includes a number of proprietary items for sponsoring entities, with results of those items released only to those sponsors. This document presents the results of questions that are provided for public release by Critical Insights. The survey included a total of 61 respondents across the state who were surveyed online or by phone in April and May of 2018. With a total sample of 61 respondents, results presented here have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3. percentage points at the 5% confidence level. All surveys were conducted with registered voters who live in Maine; final data were statistically weighted to reflect the demographics of the state s population and to give equal weight to phone and online data. On average, the entire survey instrument was 20 minutes in administrative length including both general-interest items and all proprietary subscriber items. 3
Research Highlights
Views Toward the Economy & Direction of the Nation and State
Voters in Maine are most likely to volunteer the opioid crisis, health care, unemployment, and the overall condition of the economy as the most pressing issues now facing the state. Over just the past few months, opioids and other drugs have become a much more common concern. Most Important Issues Facing Maine % naming each issue Obama/McCain Economy Unemployment 5 Obama/Romney 8 7 22 14 15 13 12 4 Health care Drugs/Opioid Crisis 1 1 16 13 24 26 27 23 21 15 14 16 16 16 14 12 13 12 12 13 13 14 15 12 12 7 36 65 35 27 12 7 7 31 33 33 30 31 30 27 7 7 5 44 35 36 27 7 3 44 26 24 20 4 5 30 18 14 Clinton/Trump 31 32 22 23 22 20 21 21 15 18 14 16 1 16 12 15 15 8 6 5 6 6 5 3 7 6 In your opinion, what is the most important issue facing Maine today? Top trended responses shown. 6
Voters remain split in their perceptions of the state s direction, with equal shares feeling it is headed in the right direction (30%) or believing it is on the wrong track (34%). Direction of Maine Right Direction Wrong track 62 45 40 42 40 44 47 34 42 47 44 41 38 31 34 23 23 40 37 42 30 35 18 37 40 28 24 33 30 Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to say the state is on the right track. All in all, do you think things in Maine are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? 7
Mainers are more than twice as likely to believe the nation is on the wrong track (53%) as headed in the right direction (22%). Direction of the Nation 35% Right Direction Wrong track 42% 47% 60% 45% 66% 55% 53% 54% 64% 42% 5% 53% 46% 52% 56% 48% 52% 53% 5% 47% 37% % 30% 1% 30% 38% 28% 26% 18% 26% 33% 1% 21% 15% 28% % 22% Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to say the nation is on the right track. All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? 8
Seven out of ten voters in Maine believe the economy will be about the same (46%) or better (24%) in the next twelve months. Optimism about the economy has fallen slightly since the fall, though more Mainers now believe that the economy will be about the same in the next year. Optimism About the Economy % predicting the economy will be: Series1 Series3 Series4 Better About the Same Worse 44 31 18 46 37 16 4 35 12 55 46 35 26 33 26 27 24 15 43 43 41 38 34 35 36 33 34 30 24 20 1 20 41 41 37 27 51 50 45 40 34 33 30 22 22 21 14 55 56 22 1 54 20 1 47 28 18 46 41 41 31 30 26 26 24 Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to expect the economy to be better in the next twelve months. Now think about the future of the economy. In the next 12 months, do you think the economy will be?
Looking ahead to the next six months, health care, job loss, the cost of living, taxes, and the economy overall remain the most common financial concerns for Mainers. Compared to last fall, health care and job loss are less pressing financial concerns for Mainers. Top Economic/Financial Concerns % naming each concern Cost of living Health care Economy Taxes Job loss 42 32 20 15 12 1 7 4 18 13 5 21 20 6 1 16 15 15 12 7 7 15 8 7 14 12 27 8 6 18 14 8 30 24 24 22 20 1 22 14 21 20 21 13 13 12 7 8 As you think about the next 6 months what economic or financial situations concern you the MOST? Top tracked responses shown. Multiple responses accepted.
Ranked Choice Voting
A total of 8% of voters in Maine incorrectly filled out a simulated ranked choice ballot in the gubernatorial primary. Ability to Correctly Complete Ranked Choice Primary Ballot Voted Incorrectly* 8% Voted Correctly 2% Respondents to the online survey were presented a mock ballot that included their party s candidates for governor. This ballot looked and functioned like the ranked choice ballot used in the primary, with registered Democrats shown a ballot with their party s candidates, and registered Republicans shown a ballot with their party s candidates. *Those who selected more than one candidate as the same rank or who voted for a candidate more than once were considered to have voted incorrectly and would have had their ballot discarded.
For More Information To learn more about this survey or its findings, contact: Bob Domine President, Digital Research Group 207.772.40 Bob.Domine@DigitalResearch.com 13