PART II SPATIAL CONDITIONS IN THE DANUBE SPACE

PART II SPATIAL CONDITIONS IN THE DANUBE SPACE 47

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CONTENT PART II: SPATIAL CONDITIONS IN THE DANUBE SPACE 47 4. DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURES AND DYNAMICS WITHIN THE DANUBE SPACE 53 4.1 Demographic Structure 53 (1) Population numbers cover a wide range 53 (2) Age structures tell different stories 54 (3) Ethnic homogeneity 59 4.2 Demographic Dynamics 60 (4) Divergent trends in East and West 60 (5) Substantial changes taking place with demographic determinants 61 (6) Population forecasts show no surprising results 65 (7) Significant changes in the patterns of international migration in the past decades 65 (8) Divergent patterns of international migration among the core countries 66 (9) Rural-urban flows dominate internal migration 68 (10) Cross-border migration is driven by economic reasons 69 (11) Brain drain and crowding out effects as major threats 70 5. SETTLEMENT STRUCTURES 73 5.1 Population Density 73 (12) Danube Space's periphery is more densely populated than the core area 73 5.2 Settlement Structure 74 (13) Major agglomerations 79 (14) Urban industrialisation in most of the CEECs 79 (15) Suburbanisation as a new trend in the CEECs 80 (16) Rural regions under stress 80 6. THE REGIONAL DYNAMICS OF TRANSITION 83 6.1 The Driving Forces of Regional Development 83 (17) Elements of economic transformation 83 (18) Three stages of transformation 86 (19) Adaptability on the regional scale 86 (20) Decisive determinants for the performance of "regions in transition" 87 (21) Recent trends in Foreign Direct Investment 88 (22) Where to the money goes 90 49

(23) Research and development determines future perspectives 90 (24) Regional R&D policies require networking 92 6.2 Structural Change in the Transition Process 93 (25) Trends in agriculture point out two groups of countries 94 (26) Land use patterns hint at divergent issues 97 (27) Land restitution, privatisation and investment 97 (28) Specific developments of the industrial sector 102 (29) Transformation of industry in the Core Countries 103 (30) High spatial concentration of heavy industry and mining 105 (31) Regional survey of main industries 107 (32) Services, the main driver of transformation 108 (33) Banking and insurance of utmost importance for further investment 109 (34) Tourism: considerable change with respect to markets and tourist flows 110 (35) Regional survey of tourism 112 7. REGIONAL DISPARITIES AND THEIR EVOLUTION 115 7.1 The Level of Economic Activity 115 (36) GDP differences between the Danube Space core countries still large 115 (37) Welfare gap is smaller than indicated by exchange rate based GDP 115 7.2 Regional Development Patterns 121 (38) Regional disparities expected to grow in transition countries 121 (39) Capital regions dominate economic development 125 7.3 Regional Disparities in the Core Countries 126 (40) Regional GDP data still not fully reliable 126 (41) Comparatively large but decreasing disparities in Austria 127 (42) Bulgaria: capital with the lowest growth potential of all Danube Space capitals 128 (43) A unique position for Prague 129 (44) Western Regions of Hungary most favoured 130 (45) Romania's large regions show little variation of growth 131 (46) Very strong west-east gradient in the Slovak Republic 133 (47) Quite small disparities on regional level III in Slovenia 133 8. LABOUR MARKETS AND UNEMPLOYMENT 135 (48) A number of data-related problems 135 (49) Major improvements concerning comparability: the Labour Force Survey 136 50

8.1 Employment 136 (50) Employment by sectors shows increasing shares of services 138 8.2 Unemployment 140 (51) Basic features of regional unemployment 143 (52) Youth unemployment... 144 (53)... as well as long term unemployment on the rise 144 9. THE ACCESSIBILITY OF THE REGIONS 149 9.1 Accessibility on the European Scale 149 (54) Potential impacts of the TINA-networks on accessibility 150 9.2 Road Networks 155 9.3 Railway Networks 156 10. ENVIRONMENTAL ENDOWMENTS OF THE REGIONS 159 10.1 Diversity of Environments 159 10.2 Natural Heritage Highlights - Biodiversity and Habitats 160 10.3 Water Resources 165 (55) Divergent patterns of sources, availability and dependencies 165 10.4 Legacies of the Socialist Era and the Risks During the Period of Economic Transition 170 (56) Air pollution 170 (57) Contaminated land 170 (58) Water pollution 171 (59) No adequate waste disposal infrastructure 171 (60) Nuclear reactor safety still doubtful 171 10.5 Risks during Economic Transition 172 (61) The transition increases pressure on certain natural endowments 172 (62) Regional survey on environmental risks 173 11. ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE NETWORKS 175 11.1 Towards Sustainability 175 (63) Danube Space major trends (1985 to 1996) 175 (64) Energy supply 176 (65) Contribution of Nuclear Power 178 11.2 Main Characteristics of the Grids 183 (66) Electricity grid - network connections 183 (67) Gas grid - network connections 183 (68) The Transgas pipeline system 184 51

11.3 Improving a Location's Economic Advantage 184 (69) Electricity: high level of connections, further investment in supply quality 184 (70) Gas infrastructure: certain adverse primary effects, overall favourable secondary effects 185 (71) Closure of mines and oil fields: a significant social issue 185 11.4 Regional Impacts of Short and Mid-term Investments 186 (72) Electricity interconnections and regional impacts 186 (73) New gas infrastructure 188 52

TABLES Table 10 Population in the Danube Space 1996 53 Table 11 Urban and Rural Population in the Core Countries of the Danube Space 74 Table 12 Total Foreign Direct Investment in the Core Countries 1994-1997 89 Table 13 Foreign Direct Investment Stock 1994, 1997 89 Table 14 Structure of Production - Share of Sectoral Gross Value Added 1990, 1995 93 Table 15 Main Agricultural Issues by Countries 100 Table 16 Examples of Concentrations of Heavy Industry and Mining 106 Table 17 Main Tourist Indicators for the Core Countries 111 Table 18 Indicators of Standard of Living 116 Table 19 Typology of Regions under Transformation 122 Table 20 Economic Position of the Capitals 126 Table 21 Austria: Regional GDP per Capita in PPPs on NUTS II Level 128 Table 22 Bulgaria: Regional GDP per Capita (1993-1995) on the Level II - PPPs 128 Table 23 Czech Republic: Regional GDP per Capita on the Level II (1993, 1996) - in PPPs 129 Table 24 Czech Republic: Regional GDP for the new Regions 2000 on the Level III (1993, 1995) - in PPPs 130 Table 25 Hungary: Regional GDP per Capita on the Level II (1994, 1996) - in PPPs 131 Table 26 Romania: Regional GDPs on the Level II (1993-1996) - in PPPs 132 Table 27 Slovak Republic: Regional GDP on Level II (1996,1997) - in PPPs 133 Table 28 Slovenia: Regional GDP on Level III (1996) - in PPPs 134 Table 29 State and Development of the Private Sector in 1994 137 Table 30 Shares of the Main Economic Sectors 1990-1996 139 Table 31 Labour Force and Economic Activity Rates in '000's 139 Table 32 Labour Market Issues in the Core Countries 145 Table 33 Railway Transport in the Core Countries - Main Issues by Countries 157 Table 34 International Designated Areas and National Parks in Danube Space Core Countries 161 53

FIGURES Map 12 Age Structure 1995: 0-14 years 55 Map 13 Age Structure 1995: older than 60 years 57 Map 14 Population Change 1990-1996 63 Map 15 Population: Structure and Density 1996 75 Map 16 Spatial Distribution of Population 77 Map 17 Land Use by NUTS II Regions in the Core Countries 95 Map 18 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 1996 117 Figure 1 GDP per Capita in PPPs in the Danube Space Core Countries 119 Figure 2 Development of Real GDP in the Danube Space (1989 = 100) 120 Map 19 Typology of Regions under Transition 123 Map 20 Unemployment Rate 141 Map 21 Accessibility of Agglomerations 151 Map 22 Accessibility of Population 153 Map 23 Protected Areas in the Danube Space 163 Map 24 The Main Rivers of the Danube Basin 167 Figure 3 Energy Production and Consumption in the Core Countries 1994 177 Map 25 Electricity Production in the Core Countries 179 Map 26 Nuclear Power Plants in the Danube Space 181 54

4. DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURES AND DYNAMICS WITHIN THE DANUBE SPACE 4.1 Demographic Structure (1) Population numbers cover a wide range The population of the Danube Space consists of 153.1 million inhabitants who make up 41% of the total population of the European Union. The core countries of the study area contain 66.8 million inhabitants who make up 44% of the Danube Space population and 18% of the total EU population, while the peripheral regions contain 86.3 million inhabitants who make up 56% of the Danube Space population and 23% of the EU's population (see Table 10). With Austria's 7.8 million inhabitants, only a small part of the Danube Space core's population lives in an EU member state. The remaining 59 million people live in the CEEC. The most populous country of the core area by far is Romania with 22.6 million inhabitants. It is followed by the Czech Republic (10.3 mn.), Hungary (10.2 mn.), Bulgaria (8.4 mn.), Austria (7.8 mn.) and the Slovak Republic (5.4 mn.). The smallest country in the study area is Slovenia with 1.99 million inhabitants. Table 10 Population in the Danube Space 1996 Total population Share in percent Core Countries 66,801,109 43.5 Western periphery 35,929,400 23.5 Northern periphery 29,817,457 19.5 South-western periphery 20,601,376 13.5 Periphery 86,348,233 56.5 Danube Space 153,149,342 100.0 Source: Statistical Yearbooks When comparing the regions (NUTS II) by population, Romania contains the most populous regions within the core area of the Danube Space. Among the ten most populous regions in the study area, eight are located in Romania, which contains regions with population figures from 2 million (West) to 3.8 million (North-east). The ninth largest region (by population, not by area) is Central Hungary (2.9 mn.), where the country's capital is located. Ranking number ten is South Moravia with 2 million inhabitants. The smaller regions of the study area include the Austrian 53

regions of Burgenland, Vorarlberg, Salzburg, and Tyrol, as well as the Bulgarian regions of Montana, Rousse and Bourgas, the Czech region of South Bohemia and the Slovak capital region of Bratislava. Their population accounts for 0.3 to 0.8 million. The most populous regions of the periphery are Bavaria (12 mn.) and Baden-Württemberg (10.3 mn.) followed by the Polish regions Katowice-Opole (5.8 mn.), Kraków (4.7 mn.) Wroclaw (3.6 mn.) and the Italian Veneto (4.4 mn.). Areas such as Serbia-Montenegro, Bosnia- Herzegovina, FYROM, Croatia, Moldova and Switzerland are only taken into account at the national level. The smallest regions of the periphery are Trentino-Alto Adige (0.9 mn.) and Friuli- Venezia Giulia (1.2 mn.) in Italy and Chernivtsi (0.9 mn.), Zacarpatska (1.3 mn.) and Ivano- Frankivsk (1.5 mn.) in the Ukraine. (2) Age structures tell different stories One could observe by comparing the age pattern between the Danube Space substantial differences. In all European countries there is a tendency for societies to age due to low fertility rates and rising life expectancy. Nevertheless, there still are remarkable disparities between the regions of the study area concerning the shares of the aged population (post-working age) and the child population (pre-working age). The proportion for the child population in the Danube Space range between 11% to 31% while the elderly population in these regions range from 9% to 31%. (see Maps 12 and 13). In most of the Romanian regions and in Slovenia, the percentage of the elderly is relatively low (below 15%). Very high percentages of post-working age population were found in the North Eastern Bulgarian regions of Montana (29%) and Lovech (27%). High percentages of elderly populations that ranged between 20% to 25% were also observed in the remaining Bulgarian regions, as well as in the eastern and southern Regions of Austria (especially Vienna), in Prague, and in the South Great Plain region in Hungary. The lowest percentages of preworking age population were found in larger cities such as Vienna (13.9%), Prague (14.7%), and Sofia city. Low percentages of pre-working age population were also found in Central Hungary, Central and Western Bohemia and Slovenia (all below 17.5%). High percentages of child population (more than 20%) were found in most regions of the Slovak Republic outside of Bratislava as well as in the northern Romanian regions, followed by Austria's Vorarlberg, in Hungary's North-Great Plain and in Bulgaria's Bourgas region. The share held by the workingage population were low (below 60%) in the Bulgarian regions (with the exception of Sofia city) and in the Central Slovak Republic. Working-age populations of more than 65% were found in the Romanian regions, in Slovenia, and in the Czech regions of North Bohemia, North Moravia, and Western Bohemia. 54

Most of the regions of the Danube Space periphery, especially in the North and the Southeast have significantly "younger" societies than the majority of the core regions. Especially high numbers of the pre-working population (23% to 30.5%) have been found in the regions of Poland and the Ukraine, Moldova and in Serbia-Montenegro. On the other hand, the percentages of young people are very low (from 11% to 17.5%) in the regions of the EU Member States of the Danube Space periphery: Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Veneto, Trentino-Alto Adige in Italy as well as in Bavaria and Baden Württemberg in Germany. The highest shares of post-working age population of the Danube Space periphery (20% to 26%) are held by the EU Member State regions in Italy, Germany and the Ukrainian regions. The percentages of ageing populations were especially low (9% to 15%) in the Moldovan, FYROM's, Bosnia- Herzegovinan and the Polish regions. The lowest shares of working age population (below 60%) were found in the Ukrainian and Polish regions, while the highest percentages (56% and more) were recorded in Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, FYROM, Moldova and Switzerland. (3) Ethnic homogeneity At the national level, the core countries of the Danube Space appear to be ethnically homogenous. All of them show shares of ethnic minorities lower than 13%. Among the largest minority groups are the Turks in Bulgaria (11%), and the Hungarians in the Slovak Republic (10%) and in Romania (7%). Other minorities such as the Germans in Romania, the Slovak Republic and in Poland, and the Roma population in the CEECs of the Danube Space (1.3% to 1.8%) account for much smaller percentages. In some cases those minorities are distributed across countries and do not seem to build a homogenous group. This is especially true for the Roma population. On the other hand, there are several regions (often border regions) with relatively high concentrations of ethnic minorities. This is true of the Turks in Bulgaria and the Hungarians in Romania and the Slovak Republic, forming the majority of the population in individual districts. Concentrations of Hungarians can be found in southern and south-eastern parts of the Slovak Republic and in Central Romania. Relatively high numbers of Turks live in the eastern and south-eastern parts of Bulgaria. Concentrations of Germans can be seen in southern Hungary, central parts of Romania and in southern Poland. Substantial migration movements in the first years of the transition period have significantly influenced the present ethnic structure of the CEECs of the Danube Space. These movements have often been stimulated by the new political freedom of mobility and growing nationalistic pressures. Sometimes the respective states encouraged their co-nationals to repatriate. In some cases these substantial movements of immigration and emigration hide behind relatively low net migration figures. The most important of those emigration flows were those of Turks emigrating from Bulgaria and Germans emigrating from Romania. 59

4.2 Demographic Dynamics (4) Divergent trends in East and West Demographic trends in the nineties in the Danube Space were divergent. While large parts of the eastern core countries posted decreasing population figures, in some of the western and northern parts, growth rates were relatively high. The population is growing in the majority of the peripheral regions (especially in the western and northern parts), but there are also some regions where the figures are declining (see Map 14: "Population Change 1990-1996"). The highest growth rates (over 5%) were found in the Austrian regions of Salzburg, Vienna, Lower Austria, Tyrol and Vorarlberg. Upper Austria, Carinthia, Burgenland, as well as in the Slovak Republic regions of East Slovak Republic. Slovenia has shown growth rates between 2% and 5%. Demographic growth in the Austrian state of Styria, Northeast Romania, Central Slovak Republic, West Slovak Republic, Bratislava and the Czech region of South Bohemia was relatively low (below 1.7%). With the exception of Friuli-Venezia Giulia, the population in all of the regions at the western periphery of the Danube Space has been growing since the beginning of the nineties. Especially high growth rates have been recorded for Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg and Switzerland (over 5%). In the Italian regions of Trentino-Alto Adige and Veneto, the population has grown by 3%. In the south-eastern periphery, demographic trends are dispersing. Growing population figures were recorded for FYROM (2.3%) and to a lesser extent Serbia Montenegro (0.4%). Relatively high growth rates were also found in some of the regions of the northern periphery: in the Ukrainian regions of Ivano-Frankivsk (2.4%) and Zacarpatska (2.3%) and Chernivtsi (0.9%), in the Polish regions Rzeszów (1.8%), Kraków (1.7%), Wroclaw (0.8%), and in Moldova (0.3%). With the exception of the Slovak Republic, most of the CEECs of the core area suffer from shrinking populations. In certain countries, the majority of regions experienced a decline in population, in Hungary or Bulgaria all regions experienced a decline in population. The highest losses were found in Central-Romania (-6.4%) followed by the Romanian regions of North West Romania, West Romania, South West Romania and South Romania; in the Bulgarian regions of Lovech, Montana, Plovdiv and Sofia; and in North Hungary, where demographic shrinkage amounted to 2% to 4%. A decline lower than 2% was found in the other five regions of Bulgaria (including the capital); in South East Romania, as well as in all of the other Hungarian regions outside of North Hungary (including the central region with the capital) and 60

in all of the Czech regions with the exception of South Moravia which showed slight growth rates. Looking at the western periphery, there is only one region with a decreasing population: Friuli- Venezia Giulia (-1.2%). Of the regions of the southern periphery Bosnia-Herzegovina (-5%) and to a lesser extent Croatia (-0.4%) had shrinking population figures in the nineties. At the northern periphery, the population has decreased in three regions: in L'viv (-0.2%), Odesa (-2.8%) in the Ukraine and Polish region of Katowice-Opole (-0.4%). (5) Substantial changes taking place with demographic determinants The disperse demographic developments in the Danube Space are due to different migration trends (discussed in the following chapter), differences in fertility, mortality and age structure. Generally, within the Danube Space, there is an obvious difference between the EU Member States and Switzerland, that have more or less high growth rates, and the transition countries of the East, where the population has declined within the core countries (with the exception of Slovak Republic, Slovenia and three regions in the Czech Republic and Romania). This is a relatively new situation, since, in the previous decades, demographic growth in Central and Eastern Europe had exceeded the growth rates of the European Community. During the 1980's, the difference has narrowed due to a slowing down in the natural increase in the CEECs. Birth rates have fallen rapidly, while death rates that had fallen until around 1980, were rising again in most of the East European countries. "According to the studies of the UN Population Fund and the Council of Europe, after a short, but substantial increase during the post-war period, fertility decline started in Eastern Europe in the '50's, reached Northern and Western Europe in the '60s and Southern Europe in the '70s. Since the '90's, stagnation and even a certain rise can be observed in some northern and western countries, whereas stagnation and decline seem to continue in Eastern Europe although at different speeds among the CEECs" (BIEHL, HOFFMAN et al., 1998). For the CEECs, this means that the major change in population trends is linked to the transition process. A general survey of demographic data shows low birth rates and particularly high death rates in the central and southern European transition countries, and a much shorter life expectancy than in the western, more prosperous countries. Birth rates are falling, and mortality rates (declining in Western Europe for decades) stagnated in Eastern Europe in the past two decades and recently have reversed their trend in some countries (Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Ukraine and former Yugoslavia). The available statistics show (a detailed table is contained in the annex) that life expectancy is generally lower in the CEECs than in West European countries. In the core, only Austria and the Czech Republic have a life expectancy of 70 or more years. The lowest life expectancy figures were found in Hungary (64.8) and Romania (65.9). The periphery shows a similar picture: figures are higher than 70 in Germany, Switzerland and Italy, as well as in FYROM. In most of 61

the CEECs, life expectancy is between 65 and 70 years. Especially low figures were found in the Ukraine (62.8) and Moldova (62.3). Child mortality is low in Austria and the more developed CEEC's, such as Slovenia and the Czech Republic (between 5 and 6 per thousand). The other countries of the core area show much higher figures (between 10.2 and 22.3 per thousand). Child mortality is low in the countries of the western periphery (4.7 to 6 per thousand), while Croatia shows a figure of 8.9 per thousand. All the other countries of the periphery show figures of more than 12 per thousand. The highest child mortality was found in FYROM (22.7 per thousand) and Moldova (20.4). The reasons for lower life expectancy and rising death rates in the CEECs are attributed at least partly to the consequences of the transition process such as unemployment, decreasing incomes, malnutrition, rising consumption of alcohol and drugs, and the reduction of public health services. Rising death rates also reflect the changing age structure of the population. Sinking birth rates and "ageing" leads to an increase in relative terms. The highest birth rates of the core were found in Austria (11.0 per thousand) and Slovak Republic (11.2 per thousand), Romania and Hungary all of which have a birth rate of 10.4 per thousand, while the other countries have rates lower than 10.0. Generally birth rates are much higher in the countries of the periphery. This is especially true for the southern periphery that has figures between 11 and 15 per thousand. Birth rates higher than 10 per thousand were also found in Switzerland, Poland and Moldova. Germany, Italy and Ukraine have birth rates below 10 per thousand. Birth rates are declining in all of the Danube Space countries (with the exception of Croatia) in the nineties, although this trend is much stronger in the CEECs. This is due not only to the economic uncertainties of the transition process, but also policy changes in many of the CEECs. In the 1970's and 1980's the official policy was aimed at increasing birth rates and the size of the workforce by supporting families with children financially, and controlling abortion. The total fertility rate is the overall number of children born to a woman during her reproductive life. All of the core countries show figures lower than 1.5, with extremely low rates in Slovenia (1.28), Bulgaria (1.24) and the Czech Republic (1.18). Most of the countries of the periphery also have total fertility rates of below 1.5, however, higher rates were found in parts of the northern and southern periphery: Poland (1.61), Moldova (1.95), Bosnia-Herzegovina (1.7) and FYROM (2.18). A net reproduction rate of 1.0 indicates, that the given fertility is sufficient to keep the population on a constant level. A net reproduction rate of below 1.0 means that processes of demographic shrinking can be expected in the long term. With the exception of Poland, all of the Danube Space countries have a net reproduction rate of below 1.0. While net reproduction rates are stagnating in the West European parts of the Danube Space, the CEECs have declining rates (again with the exception of Poland). 62

While the natural components of population change show signs of regional convergence in the West European countries, there are regional imbalances in most of the CEECs. On one hand, there is a large group of rural regions suffering from a combination of lower life expectancy (compared to the agglomerations) and an unfavourable age structure (due to emigration) resulting in low birth rates. Among these demographically threatened regions are large parts of Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Croatia. On the other hand, there are a few - sometimes lesser developed - regions with a younger population and higher fertility rates and a growing population. This is true for the eastern parts of Slovak Republic, the North-East of Romania, Moldova, most of the Polish and Ukrainian regions of the study area and FYROM. (6) Population forecasts show no surprising results For some of the Danube Space countries there are population forecasts, that consists mainly of trend extrapolations. Of course, such figures have to be treated with caution. They can show possible developments under certain circumstances. In the Danube Space divergent demographic development is expected (Statistical Yearbooks; ANDRLE, DUPAL, 1997; OECD, 1996; FASSMANN, 1997; RIW, 1997). Concerning the core area, further population growth is expected in three countries. Projections for Austria predict a 5.1% increase between 1991 and 2021. The Slovenian population will grow by 2.6% from 1993 to 2020. The projection for the Slovak Republic assumes two alternatives for 2015, both of which forecast further growth (0.6% and 2.8%). A demographic decline is expected in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic (1996-2020: -1.2%), Hungary (1991-2020: -9.6%) and Romania (1993-2020: -9.6%). High growth rates are expected in some countries of the Danube Space periphery: Germany (1993-2020: 4.6%), Switzerland (1994-2020: 7.6%), Serbia Montenegro (1991-2011: 7.7%) and Poland (1994-2010: 6.2%). 4.3 Spatial and Social Patterns of Migration (7) Significant changes in the patterns of international migration in the past decades South to north migration was characteristic for European migration patterns during the period between the 1950's-1980's and has recently been replaced by east-west migration as the dominating trend. This is due to the fall of the Iron Curtain and the abolishment of the former extremely restrictive practices, and the drastic welfare disparities between the West European countries and the CEEC. The disparities along the EU border are well known, but inside the Danube Space there are even more significant imbalances to be found. The dramatic rise in East-West migration at the beginning of the 1990's has significantly slowed down recently mainly due to more restrictive conditions for immigration to the EU. 65

Before 1990, international migration played a minor role in the CEECs of the Danube Space due to restrictions on migration movements. In most cases, migration had been internal within the countries. Nevertheless, there were a few exceptions. The most important of them was the movement of Yugoslav labour force to Germany and Austria, that started already in the 1950's and early 1960's and was part of the then dominant south-north migration trend. Other exceptions were the temporary increases of migration flows from Hungary in 1956, from Czechoslovakia in 1968 and from Poland in 1980 and 1981 resulting from political instabilities. To a limited extent there has been an organised exchange of the labour force between more developed and less developed CEECs (mainly from Poland to the former GDR, from Poland and Bulgaria to Czechoslovakia, and from Poland to Hungary). The labour force flows from the Slovak Republic to Bohemia and Moravia and from the southern less developed parts of the former Yugoslavia to Slovenia were, of course, internal cases of migration at the time. In the West European countries of the Danube Space there has been an ongoing immigration of the labour force from southern European countries. In the nineties, the Danube Space countries showed different patterns concerning international migration: the West European countries and regions are benefiting positively from international migration flows, while some of the more developed CEEC countries have balanced evenly, and others have experienced dramatic losses. (8) Divergent patterns of international migration among the core countries Bulgaria and Romania had enormous migration losses in the transition period. More than 500,000 Romanian citizens left their country in the early 1990's due to the unfavourable economic situation. Two thirds of them migrated to Germany, the main destination, followed by Hungary and Austria (OECD, 1998). After the peak of 1990 (97 000 emigrants) the number went down in the following years. In 1995 a total of 26 000 Romanian citizens left their country. According to a survey done in 1993, a total of 1.5 million Romanian citizens had thought about leaving Romania - most of them young and with above average education. Moreover, since political changes, the number of applications for asylum in the EU has risen drastically. In 1992, the number of applications for Germany amounted to approx. 104,000, which was 156% more than 1991. Romania has also become a gateway for migrants from the Third World whose destination is Western Europe. Between 30,000 to 40,000 of these illegal migrants came to Romania in 1994 (OECD, 1998). The influence of emigration on Bulgaria's demographic development became especially strong in the transition period. Between the 1985 and 1992 censuses, a total of 476,000 people left Bulgaria while another count made between 1989 and 1996 showed that 650,000 emigrants have left. The years 1989 and 1990 marked the peak of the emigration from Bulgaria. During the 1990's, between 45,000 and 65,000 people left the country each year. In 1989, 330,000 Bulgarian Turks emigrated mainly from the rural parts of Haskovo, Rousse and Varna to Turkey. About 150,000 Turks later returned to Bulgaria due to lacking opportunities in Turkey. 66

Recently the situation has become stable with the flows being reduced to about one quarter of the annual averages in the period from 1992 to 1997. In Slovenia, migration rates were positive (roughly 1:2/emigration:immigration) until 1990, when the so-called Ten Days War for Slovenian independence changed migration patterns. In 1991-1992 Slovenia for the first time experienced negative migration rates, due to a sharp increase in emigration, especially in 1991. Since then, the situation has stabilised. The international migration balance of the Czech Republic was slightly negative throughout most of the post-world War II era. In the 1980's, there were officially about 1,000 immigrants and 2,000-3,000 emigrants annually (including estimates of illegal emigration to the West, the number is 5,000-6,000 emigrants, mainly young people). In 1991-1994 there were 69,000 immigrants to the Czech Republic, including 42,000 from Slovak Republic. The information on emigration from the Czech Republic (especially to Western countries) is incomplete. Official figures count only 42,000 emigrants including 32,000 to Slovak Republic. Other estimates show a higher count by at least 10,000 emigrants and higher, though still leaving an active migration balance in total. By the end of 1994, 33,000 five-year permits were granted to foreigners (mainly Poles and Bulgarians) and 71,000 one-year permits mainly including Ukrainians, Vietnamese, Poles and others. Since 1990, 9,373 asylum seekers have applied for refugee status, of which 1,378 have been accepted. The Czech Republic is still mainly a transit country for migrants from south-eastern Europe planning to go to West European countries. From the 1950's to the 1980's, the Slovak Republic had been the demographic "hinterland" for the Bohemian and Moravian parts of Czechoslovakia. Slovakian net migration accounting for -5,000 p.a. during the 1970's and 1980's (in former decades there were higher figures). Growing emigration of the transition period was overcompensated by immigration. In 1996 net migration amounted to approx. 2,000 persons. The most important immigrant group comes from the Czech Republic (approx. 1,000 persons). Other important groups are immigrants from Ukraine (270), Romania (160), Germany (110) and Canada (102). Thus the most important factors concerning immigration are supposed to be family ties of the former CSFR (Czech and Slovak Republic), followed by economic reasons (Ukraine, Romania) and re-immigration from countries where refuge was once sought (Germany, Canada). In 1996 a total of 192 persons emigrated, half of them to the Czech Republic. In Hungary, the natural decrease in population has lead to a lower level of emigration. Furthermore, there is only limited immigration into the country. Therefore, the importance of international migration flows is not significant for demographic developments in the country. Emigration from Hungary accounted for 11,000 in 1987, 19,000 in 1989 and 17,000 in 1990. Most of the emigrants from Hungary have gone to Germany and Austria (75%). For demographic reasons, Hungary is not supposed to be a major source of emigration in the future. On the other hand, Hungary is also the destination of some immigration from the CIS 67

(Commonwealth of Independent States), mainly from the Ukraine. These persons tend to enter Hungary in the hope of moving on to the EU or on to the United States of America, but immigration barriers often lead to their settling down in Hungary, mainly in Budapest. The most important international migration towards Hungary has been from ethnic Hungarians coming from Romania and the Slovak Republic of whom at least 30% have settled in Budapest. Ethnic Hungarians represent the most important immigration flow in nearly all counties. In Poland, compared to the 1980's, emigration rates during the 1990's have declined. During the 1980's, an estimated 1 million people emigrated from Poland. In the 1990's there has also been some immigration to Poland from the former Soviet Union and south-east Asia (20,000-30,000) for economic and demographic reasons. Moldova continues to exhibit modest net migration losses with a total outflow of 90,000 persons for the period between 1990-1995. In contrast, the Ukraine has experienced net immigration. Although a considerable number of people from the Ukraine have been moving to Western Europe, Israel and the United States, even larger numbers of immigrants are returning from other successor states of the former Soviet Union. The situation of those countries that were formed after the dissolution of the former Yugoslavia is especially complicated and unstable. War, ethnic strife and territorial disputes, have inflicted causalities and created involuntary population movements on a large scale. Due to such rapid wartime movements, it is extremely difficult to give a proper account of these movements in the war-ridden area. Movement of population to other countries, including other republics of former Yugoslavia, accounts for much of the population loss for Bosnia-Herzegovina. Net outmigration from Bosnia-Herzegovina between 1990-1995 period is estimated at 975,000 persons. That is, approximately one out of every five people in 1990 has left for another country. This figure does not consider the most recent events, including the more dramatic movements accompanying the war in Kosovo. (9) Rural-urban flows dominated internal migration The most important trend concerning internal migration in all of the Danube Space countries from the 1950's to the 1980's has been the rural-urban movement of large parts of the population. The process of urbanisation and industrialisation of the post-war decades caused significant changes in social, sectoral and settlement structures. There has been a massive decline in the rural and agricultural population and a significant rise in the urban industrial population. Despite these similarities, there are important differences between the West European parts and the CEECs of the Danube Space. In Western Europe, the process of urbanisation/industrialisation has changed to suburbanisation/tertiarisation. The growth of cities has been replaced by the dynamic growth of their surrounding areas with the highest growth rates of employment are found in the service sector. In the CEECs no such development took place. While the share of the rural/agricultural population is still larger than in 68

the West, up to now there have been comparably weak signs of urban sprawl. Only Slovenia and Hungary show a tendency toward suburbanisation and the spatial problems resulting from urban sprawl that concern mainly Budapest and Ljubljana, as well as a few other urban areas within these two countries. Further significant new differences between the CEECs and West European countries of the study area have arisen in the 1990's. In most of the CEECs of the Danube Space, internal migration has been declining significantly since 1990 due to the economic crisis of many labour market centres and severe housing problems. After the forced urbanisation and centralisation that was characteristic for the 1950's - 1980's, now the main trends in the Danube Space of the CEEC concerning internal migration may be defined as decentralisation and suburbanisation. The trend toward urban growth has stopped in many countries and urban-rural migration is taking place (e.g. Bulgaria, Romania, and Czech Republic). People are returning to the villages, sometimes a phenomenon coinciding with the ongoing restitution of land. Other countries, such as Slovenia and the Slovak Republic, still suffer from depopulation in certain rural areas. A lack of mobility of the population is contributed to spatial problems in some countries. An exception is Hungary, where people move from demographically growing regions that, however, lack income opportunities to demographically weak, but economically stronger regions. In the Czech and Slovak Republics, a weak housing market and diminishing dwelling construction has been a severe limiting factor for internal migration. Sometimes there exist serious imbalances between housing and the labour market on the regional level. There are structurally disadvantaged regions with a sufficient supply of dwellings, but lacking job opportunities and, on the other hand, economic growth poles with serious shortages in housing. Traditionally strong immigration regions that were abundant with industry have now declined during the transition period into regions with significant out-migration. On the other hand, e.g. the former border regions along the Iron Curtain in the CEECs have changed from typical outmigration regions into immigration areas. (10) Cross-border migration is driven by economic reasons Cross-border migration refers mainly to commuting for work purposes between two regions of different countries. With the high differences in income at most of the national borders, cross border migrants are supposed to be mainly motivated by economic reasons. These differences that do not occur only along the EU border, but also along most of the borders of the Danube Space, making it attractive to combine low levels of the cost-of-living standards with high income from neighbouring wealthier regions. For concerned countries, this poses some problems although it does offer some advantages too. 69

Before 1990, cross-border commuting was a well-known phenomenon in the European Community, especially between regions within Austria, Germany and Switzerland. About 2.2% of the population of Austria's western regions are daily or non-daily commuters working in western neighbouring countries. Among the CEECs as well as between CEECs and Western European countries, job-related cross-border migration played a minor role due to the restrictions applying to the movement of people. During the transition period, commuting between the EU countries and the CEECs of the Danube Space became an important factor, especially in the border regions. In some of the border districts of the Czech Republic, more than 10% of the regional labour force are registered as commuters to Austria and Germany. The most important destinations for Slovak Republic cross-border migrants are Austria and the Czech Republic. In Hungary, 10,000 people commute to their jobs in Austria. The benefits for the western border regions of the Danube Space CEECs are obvious. While they had been among the less developed regions of their countries before 1990, their employment situation is usually better than most of the other regions now. The migration pattern of most of the border regions has changed from emigration to immigration. Additionally, the higher income of the commuters can be spent for consumptive, but also productive investments. Considering that those regions are also an important location for new enterprises, there are good chances for dynamic demographic and economic development. (11) Brain drain and crowding out effects as major threats On the other hand, there are also some risks and dangers. Brain drain is not only important for international migration, as cross-border commuting can also cause this effect too. A shortage of skilled labour is already being reported as a problem for enterprises in the border regions in some of the Danube Space countries, e.g. the Czech Republic. Sometimes replacement processes take place in these regions. For example, in Czech regions at the Austrian border, Ukrainian migrant workers fill the gap left by Czech workers. This new migration trend of a cheap labour force narrows the opportunities for traditional migrant workers, such as the Slovaks in the Czech labour market. In the Slovak Republic, commuters and migrants from the Eastern Slovak Republic have replaced the skilled workforce from the western border regions commuting to Austria. As an additional trend the numbers of Ukrainian workforce, especially in the construction sector has increased significantly, thus provoking the claim for more restrictive regulations. Commuters from Danube Space CEECs are still only a small part of Austria's foreign workforce. The majority still comes from the country's traditional source regions of migrant workers - Turkey and the territory of former Yugoslavia. The main destinations of commuters from CEECs are the eastern regions of Austria that (with the exception of Vienna) had relatively low shares of foreigners employed before the 1990's. Because of cross-border accessibility, most Hungarian migrants work in Burgenland, while most of the Czech and Slovak Republic 70

migrants have their jobs in Lower Austria. Most of them are occupied in the traditional migrant branches of the economy: construction, retailing and tourism. The effects on employment and wages in Austria are supposed to be limited, however, there has been some pressure put on weaker groups on the regional labour markets, especially migrants already living and working in Austria. 71

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