Resolving Civil Wars: the Role of the International Community
Ending Civil v. International War: International Wars: WWII, 6 years Korean War, 3 years Iran-Iraq war, 8 years Civil wars: Sudan (vs South), 22 years Colombia, 40+ years Sri Lanka, 30+/- years Some Empirics i 55% of international wars resolved through a treaty. Less than 30% of civil wars resolved through treaty. Can differences in the bargaining process explain these differences?
Conflict Resolution as a Bargaining Problem Theories built upon International Relations models of state-to-state conflict. Conflict is costly!! If actors can anticipate i t the outcome of a conflict, should be able to negotiate a solution.
Bargaining Failure I: Information Lack of information about one another s capabilities. Private information and incentives to misrepresent. Rebels and governments have different expectations about the outcome of a war, so cannot settle. See Lake and Rothchild reading. Overestimate chances of success.
War reveals information State-to-state to conflict: information is revealed quickly. Peace agreements can be struck once likely outcome is known. Rebel-government conflict: takes longer to mobilize rebel forces. Information is revealed more slowly. If lack of information is at the core of the conflict, then once information i is revealed actors should be able to reach a settlement.
Mutually Hurting Stalemate Zartman: When parties find themselves locked in a conflict from which h they cannot escalate to unilateral victory, and this deadlock is painful to both of them, they seek a way out. Role of information: actors do not believe they will get any stronger. No end in sight. Role of costs: it is costly to keep fighting.
But Can Stalemate explain everything? Conflicts seem to persist for years, even after it becomes clear that neither side can win. (Colombia 40+ years!) Even stalemated conflicts seem to persist for a very long time, despite the willingness to negotiate. Nicaragua example: Contras versus Sandinistas conflict begins in 1979. Contadora Peace Process begins in 1983. Several proposals fail. Esquipulas Peace Process begins in 1986. Final accord not reached until 1990.
Bargaining Failure II: Credible Commitments Situations where one or both parties to a conflict cannot credibly promise to abide by the terms of a peace deal. B. Walter: Key difference between civil and international wars: International war: you get to keep your army after a peace treaty. Civil war: must lay down arms and re-integrate into society.
REBELS Disarm Not Disarm GOV T. Implement treaty Share power Share power Suckered Treachery Renege/attack Total victory War Victimization War Govt: Total victory > share power > war > weakened/suckered Rebels: Treachery > share power > war > victimization
Third-Party Enforcement One of the key functions of peacekeepers is to provide security yguarantees to demobilized fighters. Peacekeepers also: verify disarmament, monitor elections, secure borders, provide reintegration assistance. Notable successes: Nicaragua, Mozambique. Yet also horrible failures: Rwanda.
Third-Party enforcement and Negotiated Settlements t (1940-1992) 1992) No Settlement Negotiated Settlement No third-party Enforcement 45 0 Third-party 2 10 Enforcement Source: Barbara Walter s Committing to Peace Dataset
Transitional Justice Truth & Reconciliation Commissions South Africa model Encourage people p to speak about abuses, but grant pardon. Non-retribution. War Crimes tribunals Rwanda model Punish perpetrators of war crimes.
Truth commissions. Pros: Non-confrontational Allows parties to reconcile People more willing to come forward Cons: Allows people to get away with murder War crimes tribunals. Pros: Deters future abuses Real penalties promote sense of justice Cons: May make peace settlements more difficult Confrontational approach
International War Crimes Tribunals Rwanda: Rwandan Genocide in 1994 left 800,000+ Tutsis and Moderate Hutus dead. November, 1998, UN Establishes the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda to Prosecute Crimes. 28 Convictions have been issued. Yugoslavia: Investigation of war crimes in Yugoslavia (e.g. Srebrenica massacre). Tried President Slobodan Milosevic. 48 Convictions.
The International Criminal Court War crimes tribunals were typically ad hoc (e.g. Rwanda, Yugoslavia, Sierra Leone). During the 1990 s there was an effort to create a permanent International Criminal Court (ICC) to prosecute genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, etc. ICC came into existence in 2002. Currently has 104 member states. United States currently not a member. Immunity agreements with 98 states. Current indictments in Uganda, DRC, Darfur.