NEW JERSEY: CD03 STILL KNOTTED UP

Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Thursday, October 25, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769 (cell); 732-263-5858 (office) pdmurray@monmouth.edu Follow on Twitter: @PollsterPatrick NEW JERSEY: CD03 STILL KNOTTED UP But has had success with attacks on incumbent West Long Branch, NJ ublican. Tom continues to face a tough challenge from former national security adviser Andy in the race for New Jersey s 3 rd Congressional District. There hasn t been a lot of change in the state of the race since August according to the Monmouth University Poll, with the ocrat holding a statistically insignificant lead among likely voters. The poll finds that views of the incumbent have become more negative since the summer, as attacks on as being beholden to special interests seem to have had an impact. While the partisan gap in voter enthusiasm has narrowed, Pres. Donald Trump remains more of a motivating force among ocrats than among ublicans in this district. currently holds a statistically insignificant 4 to 4 edge over among likely voters using Monmouth s standard midterm turnout model. Another support a third party candidate and are undecided. The race stands at 5 for and 4 for using a model that incorporates a turnout surge in ocratic precincts. A model projecting lower overall turnout shows with a 4 to 4 lead over. These results are basically unchanged from Monmouth s August poll. At that time, had 4 support and had 4 support in the standard model. led 4 to 4 in the ocratic surge model and 4 to 4 the low turnout model. All leads in the current likely voter models are within the poll s margin of error. NJ-03 encompasses two very distinct geographic areas. The eastern Ocean County section, which is located mainly in the New York media market, is s base. He leads in this segment of the district by 6 to 3, which is up from his 5 to 3 Ocean County lead in August. The western, Burlington County section located in the Philadelphia media market is more ocratic. leads in this segment of the district by 5 to 3, which is up from his 5 to 3 Burlington County lead in August. In s prior two elections, he won Ocean County by 25 points in 2014 and 38 points in 1

Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/25/18 2016, similar to his 26 point advantage in the current poll. However, the ublican was also competitive in the Burlington County part of the district, drawing nearly even in 2014 and actually winning by 7 points in 2016. These past results are a far cry from the 23 point deficit he currently has there in Monmouth s poll. This race continues to be a tale of two districts. Right now the ocratic half of the district is running well ahead of past performance. The question is whether enough Trump supporters in the ublican portion will come out to offset it, said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. Currently, 7 of likely voters have a lot of interest in the race. This is up from 7 in August, but the ocratic advantage on this measure has narrowed. Two months ago, 8 of ocrats and 7 of ublicans had a lot of interest in the race. Today 7 of ocrats and 7 of ublicans express a high level of interest. Donald Trump s current job rating in the district is 4 approve and 4 disapprove. This is a slight uptick from his 4 approve and 5 disapprove rating two months ago. Overall, 7 say that the president is a very important factor in their House vote. However, Trump opponents (8) continue to be more likely than Trump supporters (7) to feel this way, which is slightly wider than the opponent (8) versus supporter (7) gap in August. Currently, 3 of voters say has been too supportive of the president, which is up from 3 who felt that way in August. The partisan enthusiasm gap has leveled off and the president maintains an evenly divided job rating. But Trump remains more of a motivating factor for his opponents than for his supporters in this particular race, said Murray. The Monmouth University Poll also finds that opinion of has grown more negative while opinion of has remained stable as more voters have formed an opinion of the challenger. Currently, 3 of NJ-03 likely voters have a favorable view of the incumbent and a similar 3 have an unfavorable view, with 3 having no opinion. In August, had a net +10 positive rating of 3 favorable and 2 unfavorable, with 4 offering no opinion. currently gets a 3 favorable and 2 unfavorable rating, with 3 having no opinion. Both his positive and negative ratings have grown, but the net +10 rating gets now is identical to the +10 rating he had in August when he stood at 2 favorable and unfavorable, with 5 having no opinion. The challenger has been attacking the incumbent as being beholden to special interests. The poll suggests these attacks might be having an impact. Nearly half (4) of NJ-03 voters say does more to represent special interests while only 2 say he does more to represent average residents in his district. The opposite perception holds for the challenger. Nearly half (4) think will do more to 2

Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/25/18 represent average residents if he is elected, compared with 3 who feel he will do more to represent special interests. The top voter concern, among six asked about in the poll, is health care (3). This is followed by immigration (2), taxes (1), gun control (1), jobs (), and abortion (). now has a clear advantage as the candidate who voters trust more to keep health care affordable 4 choose compared with 2 who trust more on this issue. In August voters were split on their preference for handling health care, with 3 choosing and 3 choosing. Voters are divided on who they trust more to handle tax policy 3 choose and 3 choose. was the only member of New Jersey s delegation to vote in favor of the tax reform bill passed by Congress last year. The legislation is unpopular in his home district, registering 4 approval and 5 disapproval among likely NJ-03 voters. NJ-03 likely voters preference for party control of Congress has swung slightly toward the ocrats. Currently, 4 prefer to see ocratic control and 4 prefer to see ublican control. In August, 4 preferred ublican control and 3 preferred ocratic control. New Jersey s 3 rd is considered a pivot district, having voted for Barack Obama for president in 2012 (by 5 points) and for Trump in 2016 (by 6 points). won an open seat here by 10 points in 2014 and then won re-election by 20 points in 2016. The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from October 18 to 22, with 363 likely voters in New Jersey s 3 rd Congressional District. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percentage points. The error of the difference between the two candidates vote share (i.e. the lead ) is +/-7.3 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. QUESTIONS AND RESULTS (* Some columns may not add to 10 due to rounding.) 1/2. If the election for U.S. House of resentatives in your district was today, would you vote for Tom the ublican or Andy the ocrat, or some other candidate? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following at this moment, do you lean more toward Tom or more toward Andy?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED] Likely Voters with leaners Standard Midterm ocratic Surge Low Turnout Standard Midterm ocratic Surge Low Turnout Tom 4 4 4 4 4 4 Andy 4 5 4 4 4 4 Other (VOL) Undecided (n) (363) (363) (363) (300) (300) (300) 3

Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/25/18 [QUESTIONS 3 & 4 WERE ROTATED] 3. Is your general impression of Tom favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 3 3 Unfavorable 3 2 No opinion 3 4 4. Is your general impression of Andy favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 3 2 Unfavorable 2 No opinion 3 5 5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot 7 7 A little 2 Not much at all (VOL) Don't Know 6. Have you been following the campaign in your congressional district very closely, somewhat closely, or not too closely? Very closely 3 2 Somewhat closely 4 4 Not too closely 2 3 (VOL) Don't Know 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve 3 3 Somewhat approve 1 1 Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove 4 4 (VOL) Don t know 4

Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/25/18 8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support 4 4 Oppose 4 4 (VOL) Depends/both (VOL) Don t know 9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your [support of/opposition to] President Trump very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important 7 7 Somewhat important 1 1 Not too important Not at all important (VOL) Don t know 10. Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesn t this matter to you? ublicans 4 4 ocrats 4 3 Does not matter 1 (VOL) Don t know [QUESTIONS 11 & 12 WERE ROTATED] 11. Do you think Tom does more to represent special interests or does more to represent average residents in the district? [CHOICES WERE ROTATED] resent special interests 4 resent average residents 2 (VOL) Both equally (VOL) Don t know 2 (n) (363) 12. If he is elected, do you think Andy will do more to represent special interests or will do more to represent average residents in the district? [CHOICES WERE ROTATED] resent special interests 3 resent average residents 4 (VOL) Both equally (VOL) Don t know 1 (n) (363) 5

Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/25/18 13. Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress? [ITEMS WERE ROTATED] Immigration policy 2 Health care policy 3 Gun control policy 1 Abortion policy Tax policy 1 Job creation policy (VOL) Other (VOL) Don t know (n) (363) [QUESTIONS 14A & 14B WERE ROTATED] 14A. Who do you trust more to work to keep health care affordable Tom or Andy, or do you trust both equally? [NAMES WERE ROTATED] Tom 2 3 Andy 4 3 Both equally 1 (VOL) Neither one (VOL) Don t know 1 14B. Who do you trust more to handle tax policy Tom or Andy, or do you trust both equally? [NAMES WERE ROTATED] Tom 3 Andy 3 Both equally 1 (VOL) Neither one (VOL) Don t know (n) (363) 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the tax reform plan passed by Congress last year? [Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve 2 2 Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove 1 1 Strongly disapprove 3 3 (VOL) Don t know 1 16. Has Tom been too supportive of Donald Trump, not supportive enough, or has he given the right amount of support to Trump? Too supportive 3 3 Not supportive enough 1 Right amount of support 3 3 (VOL) Don t know 1 2 6

Monmouth University Polling Institute 10/25/18 METHODOLOGY The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from October 18 to 22, with a random sample of 363 likely voters in New Jersey s 3 rd Congressional District, drawn from a list of registered voters who voted in at least one of the last four general or primary elections or have registered to vote since January 2016. This includes 223 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 140 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone in English. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for region, party registration, age, gender, education and race based on state voter registration list and U.S. Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and L2 (voter sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 9 confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Party Registration 3 ublican 3 ocrat 2 Neither Self-orted Party ID 3 ublican 3 ependent 3 ocrat 4 Male 5 Female 1 18-34 1 35-49 3 50-64 3 65+ 8 White, non-hispanic Other 6 No college degree 3 4-year college degree 5 Burlington County 4 Ocean County MARGIN OF ERROR unweighted sample moe (+/-) ALL LIKELY VOTERS 363 5. SELF-REPORTED ublican 120 9. ependent 133 8. ocrat 107 9. IDEOLOGY Conservative 118 9. Moderate 142 8. Liberal 93 10. Male 166 7. Female 197 7. AGE 18-49 114 9. 50-64 119 9. 65+ 122 8. COLLEGE by RACE White, No degree 128 8. White, 4 year degree 159 7. Other race, Latino 63 12. Burlington 199 7. Ocean 164 7. VOTE CHOICE 158 7. 163 7. Other, undecided 42 15. ### 7

Monmouth University Poll -- LIKELY VOTERS: STANDARD MODEL -- 10/25/18 Q1-2. VOTE WITH Tom Andy Other Undecided 4 4 9 4 5 9 8 3 1 5 8 5 3 3 5 3 5 Q1-2. VOTE WITH Tom Andy Other Undecided 5 4 5 4 2 4 5 3 5 6 3 6 5 3 Con Mod Lib Q3. Is your general impression of Favorable 3 7 2 6 2 4 2 3 Tom favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 3 3 6 3 6 2 4 3 opinion of him? No opinion 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 Burlington Ocean Q3. Is your general impression of Favorable 3 3 3 3 2 2 4 7 Tom favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 3 3 3 4 3 4 2 opinion of him? No opinion 2 3 3 2 4 3 2 2 Q3. Is your general impression of Favorable 2 Tom favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 7 opinion of him? No opinion 2 6 Con Mod Lib Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable 3 4 7 4 7 3 4 4 Andy favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 2 5 2 4 2 1 3 2 2 opinion of him? No opinion 3 3 3 2 4 3 1 3 3 3 Page 1

Monmouth University Poll -- LIKELY VOTERS: STANDARD MODEL -- 10/25/18 Burlington Ocean Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable 3 4 3 4 4 4 2 Andy favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 3 2 3 2 1 2 3 6 opinion of him? No opinion 3 3 3 2 4 2 4 3 Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable 7 Andy favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 1 opinion of him? No opinion 2 7 Q5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives - a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot A little Not much at all 7 7 7 1 7 1 7 7 7 1 1 1 7 7 1 7 2 Q5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives - a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot A little Not much at all 7 7 7 8 8 1 1 2 1 1 7 8 1 7 2 Q5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives - a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot A little Not much at all 8 1 7 1 Page 2

Monmouth University Poll -- LIKELY VOTERS: STANDARD MODEL -- 10/25/18 Con Mod Lib Q6. Have you been following the Very closely 3 2 3 4 2 3 4 3 3 3 campaign in your Congressional district very closely, somewhat Somewhat closely 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 4 4 5 closely, or not too closely? Not too closely 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 Burlington Ocean Q6. Have you been following the Very closely 3 3 2 4 3 3 2 2 campaign in your Congressional district very closely, somewhat Somewhat closely 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 closely, or not too closely? Not too closely 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 Q6. Have you been following the Very closely 4 1 campaign in your Congressional district very closely, somewhat Somewhat closely 4 3 closely, or not too closely? Not too closely 1 4 Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [PROBE: Do you (approve\disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove 3 1 4 7 1 2 1 4 8 7 2 1 1 4 7 4 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 1 4 Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [PROBE: Do you (approve\disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove 3 3 4 3 1 1 1 1 3 4 2 5 6 2 4 1 1 5 3 7 1 Page 3

Monmouth University Poll -- LIKELY VOTERS: STANDARD MODEL -- 10/25/18 Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [PROBE: Do you (approve\disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove 2 2 1 8 2 Q8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support Oppose [VOL] Both 4 4 8 4 5 8 8 4 5 8 1 5 3 3 5 4 5 Q8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support Oppose [VOL] Both 5 4 5 4 2 4 5 3 5 7 3 6 5 3 8 Q8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support Oppose [VOL] Both 8 5 4 Q9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your [support of\opposition to] President Trump very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important 7 1 7 1 6 2 8 7 6 8 2 1 7 1 7 1 6 2 Page 4

Monmouth University Poll -- LIKELY VOTERS: STANDARD MODEL -- 10/25/18 Q9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your [support of\opposition to] President Trump very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important 7 8 6 8 7 1 1 1 7 7 1 1 7 1 Q9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your [support of\opposition to] President Trump very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important 8 1 4 3 Q10. Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesnt this matter to you? ublicans ocrats Does not matter 4 4 1 8 3 4 2 8 7 3 4 8 1 2 1 4 3 1 3 4 1 2 5 1 Q10. Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesnt this matter to you? ublicans ocrats Does not matter 4 4 4 4 1 3 4 3 5 5 1 1 1 2 3 5 5 3 1 1 8 1 Q10. Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesnt this matter to you? ublicans ocrats Does not matter 9 3 1 5 Page 5

Monmouth University Poll -- LIKELY VOTERS: STANDARD MODEL -- 10/25/18 Male Female Q11. Do you think Tom does more to represent special interests or does more to represent average residents in the district? Does more to represent special interests Does more to represent average residents (VOL) Both equally 4 2 1 5 5 2 6 4 1 5 2 7 1 4 3 4 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 18-49 Q11. Do you think Tom does more to represent special interests or does more to represent average residents in the district? Does more to represent special interests Does more to represent average residents (VOL) Both equally 5 2 4 3 4 2 3 3 4 3 6 1 5 2 3 3 1 2 2 1 1 2 Q11. Do you think Tom does more to represent special interests or does more to represent average residents in the district? Does more to represent special interests Does more to represent average residents (VOL) Both equally 1 5 7 4 1 1 1 3 Male Female Q12. If he is elected, do you think Andy will do more to represent special interests or will do more to represent average residents in the district? Will do more to represent special interests Will do more to represent average residents (VOL) Both equally 3 4 5 1 3 5 8 4 1 2 5 1 8 3 4 2 5 1 3 1 3 1 2 1 18-49 Q12. If he is elected, do you think Andy will do more to represent special interests or will do more to represent average residents in the district? Will do more to represent special interests Will do more to represent average residents (VOL) Both equally 3 4 3 4 2 5 3 4 2 5 6 2 5 3 3 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 Page 6

Monmouth University Poll -- LIKELY VOTERS: STANDARD MODEL -- 10/25/18 Q12. If he is elected, do you think Andy will do more to represent special interests or will do more to represent average residents in the district? Will do more to represent special interests Will do more to represent average residents (VOL) Both equally 5 1 1 8 3 2 4 Q13. Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress - [READ LIST]? Immigration policy Health care policy Gun control policy Abortion policy 2 3 1 3 1 1 3 1 4 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 4 1 2 2 3 1 1 1 3 1 Tax policy 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 Job creation policy 1 1 1 1 1 [VOL] Other Q13. Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress - [READ LIST]? Immigration policy Health care policy Gun control policy Abortion policy 1 3 1 2 3 2 2 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 3 1 2 2 1 3 1 1 Tax policy 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 Job creation policy 1 1 [VOL] Other Q13. Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress - [READ LIST]? Immigration policy Health care policy Gun control policy Abortion policy 4 1 2 2 1 Tax policy 1 2 Job creation policy 1 [VOL] Other Page 7

Monmouth University Poll -- LIKELY VOTERS: STANDARD MODEL -- 10/25/18 Q14A. Who do you trust more to work to keep health care affordable Tom or Andy, or do you trust both equally? Tom Andy Both equally (VOL) Neither one 2 4 6 1 4 2 8 1 5 1 5 8 2 2 3 3 1 2 4 1 2 5 Q14A. Who do you trust more to work to keep health care affordable Tom or Andy, or do you trust both equally? Tom Andy Both equally (VOL) Neither one 3 2 3 3 1 3 4 3 4 6 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 3 5 2 1 1 6 2 Q14A. Who do you trust more to work to keep health care affordable Tom or Andy, or do you trust both equally? Tom Andy Both equally (VOL) Neither one 8 1 3 2 1 1 Q14B. Who do you trust more to handle tax policy Tom or Andy, or do you trust both equally? Tom Andy Both equally (VOL) Neither one 3 3 1 6 1 2 3 2 7 1 1 5 2 1 4 7 1 2 1 1 1 3 2 2 2 4 1 1 2 3 2 Q14B. Who do you trust more to handle tax policy Tom or Andy, or do you trust both equally? Tom Andy Both equally (VOL) Neither one 3 3 3 3 1 3 4 3 4 3 1 2 1 3 1 1 2 3 4 2 1 1 6 Page 8

Monmouth University Poll -- LIKELY VOTERS: STANDARD MODEL -- 10/25/18 Q14B. Who do you trust more to handle tax policy Tom or Andy, or do you trust both equally? Tom Andy Both equally (VOL) Neither one 1 7 1 4 1 2 Q15. Do you approve or disapprove of the tax reform plan passed by Congress last year? [PROBE: Do you (approve\disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove 2 1 3 4 2 1 1 1 2 1 4 1 5 1 4 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 6 1 3 2 3 1 2 3 1 1 2 2 3 1 Q15. Do you approve or disapprove of the tax reform plan passed by Congress last year? [PROBE: Do you (approve\disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 3 3 4 4 1 3 1 1 4 3 4 2 1 1 Q15. Do you approve or disapprove of the tax reform plan passed by Congress last year? [PROBE: Do you (approve\disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove 6 3 2 2 2 Q16. Has Tom been too supportive of Donald Trump, not supportive enough, or has he given the right amount of support to Trump? Too supportive Not supportive enough Right amount of support 3 1 3 1 1 6 4 1 2 6 1 2 4 7 5 3 1 2 1 1 Male Female 3 4 1 4 2 1 2 Page 9

Monmouth University Poll -- LIKELY VOTERS: STANDARD MODEL -- 10/25/18 Q16. Has Tom been too supportive of Donald Trump, not supportive enough, or has he given the right amount of support to Trump? Too supportive Not supportive enough Right amount of support 18-49 3 3 3 2 4 4 1 1 3 3 2 3 3 4 1 1 2 2 1 1 4 2 1 3 4 1 1 Q16. Has Tom been too supportive of Donald Trump, not supportive enough, or has he given the right amount of support to Trump? Too supportive Not supportive enough Right amount of support 1 6 1 7 1 2 3 3 Page 10