Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director (203) 535-6203 FOR RELEASE: OCTOBER 23, 2018 Rubenstein Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 GILLUM LEADS IN TIGHT FLORIDA GOVERNOR S RACE, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; DEM BOOSTED BY INDEPENDENTS, WOMEN, NON-WHITE VOTERS With big leads among women, black, Hispanic and independent voters, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, the Democratic candidate for Florida governor, has 52 percent of likely voters to 46 percent for former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, the Republican contender, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today. This compares to a 54 45 percent likely voter lead for Mayor Gillum in a September 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll. Today, there are wide racial, gender and partisan gaps: White voters back DeSantis 54 44 percent. The Democrat leads 99 1 percent among black voters and 59 36 percent among Hispanic voters; Women back Gillum 59 38 percent, as men back DeSantis 54 44 percent; Gillum leads 96 4 percent among Democrats and 57 39 percent among independent voters. Republicans back DeSantis 89 8 percent. Only 2 percent of Florida likely voters remain undecided and 4 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind in the next 14 days. Looking inside the numbers of the governor's race between Mayor Andrew Gillum and former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, we see shining examples of the problems Republicans face this year, not just in Florida, but around the country, said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. The GOP has faced strong opposition from women and other anti-trump voters. These defections have hurt GOP candidates around the country and made it difficult to attract the numbers of independent voters that are often major players in successful campaigns. voters. Here in Florida that has translated into an 18-point Gillum lead among independent -more-
Quinnipiac University Poll/October 23, 2018 page 2 Even more problematic for the GOP and telling about Mayor Gillum's candidacy, is that a liberal Democrat is on the plus side of a 50 47 percent split among white women, Brown added. Gillum has a 50 38 percent favorability rating among Florida likely voters, compared to 55 31 percent September 26. DeSantis gets a split 43 43 percent favorability rating, compared to a slightly negative 42 47 percent favorability rating September 26. From October 17 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,161 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues. Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll. 2
1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Gillum the Democrat and Ron DeSantis the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Andrew Gillum the Democrat or more toward Ron DeSantis the Republican? Gillum 52% 8% 96% 57% 44% 59% 46% 41% DeSantis 46 89 4 39 54 38 50 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1-1 - 1 - - DK/NA 2 1-4 2 3 3 2 Gillum 37% 50% 44% 99% 59% DeSantis 62 47 54 1 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - 1 DK/NA 2 3 2-3... NO COLLEGE Gillum 37% 54% 36% 45% DeSantis 61 42 63 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1-1 DK/NA 2 3 1 2 Gillum 7% 9% 94% 98% 51% 62% DeSantis 91 87 6 2 45 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - - 1 DK/NA - 2 - - 4 4 Gillum 39% 55% 51% 44% 61% DeSantis 57 43 46 54 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - DK/NA 3 1 3 2 2 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Gillum DeSantis Mind made up 95% 95% 95% Might change 4 4 4 DK/NA - - 1 3
2. Is your opinion of Andrew Gillum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 50% 11% 90% 56% 42% 58% 47% 40% Unfavorable 38 75 3 33 47 31 42 48 Hvn't hrd enough 10 13 5 9 10 10 8 11 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 Favorable 36% 50% 44% 93% 58% Unfavorable 53 38 45 1 28 Hvn't hrd enough 9 10 9 6 12 REFUSED 2 2 2-1... NO COLLEGE Favorable 37% 55% 35% 45% Unfavorable 52 35 53 43 Hvn't hrd enough 8 8 10 12 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 Favorable 10% 12% 84% 94% 50% 61% Unfavorable 78 71 5 2 41 26 Hvn't hrd enough 11 15 9 3 7 11 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 2 2 Favorable 39% 53% 49% 42% 60% Unfavorable 44 36 42 47 29 Hvn't hrd enough 15 9 8 11 8 REFUSED 2 2 1-3 4
3. Is your opinion of Ron DeSantis favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 43% 83% 5% 37% 50% 37% 47% 53% Unfavorable 43 9 77 46 36 48 43 36 Hvn't hrd enough 13 7 17 15 11 14 8 8 REFUSED 2 2-2 3 1 2 2 Favorable 57% 44% 50% 3% 37% Unfavorable 32 47 40 63 45 Hvn't hrd enough 8 9 8 32 18 REFUSED 3 1 2 2 -... NO COLLEGE Favorable 57% 38% 57% 50% Unfavorable 33 51 31 42 Hvn't hrd enough 7 9 9 8 REFUSED 2 2 3 - Favorable 85% 79% 5% 5% 42% 32% Unfavorable 8 9 76 78 40 52 Hvn't hrd enough 4 10 17 17 15 14 REFUSED 2 1 1-3 1 Favorable 52% 42% 42% 54% 35% Unfavorable 31 44 46 41 46 Hvn't hrd enough 15 12 11 3 17 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 2 5