Acute Food Insecurity Situation Overview

TAJIKISTAN Acute Food Insecurity Situation Overview Created on 31/05/2016 Aggregate Numbers Key Findings and Issues Overall, an estimated 12% of the population (about 715,000 people) in rural areas are food insecure and classified in Crisis situation (Phase 3). 38% of the rural population (2,297,000 people) is estimated to be Stressed (Phase 2) and 51% (over 3 million people) are classified as Minimal food insecure (Phase 1). The Eastern Pamir Plateau Livestock Zone, the Western Pamir Valley Migratory Work zone and Rasht Valley Irrigated Potato Zone have the highest proportion of food insecure population. Key Issues Depreciation of the Tajik Somoni and the Russian Ruble contributed to increased prices of imported food and also increased the overall prevalence of acute food insecurity in Tajikistan by reducing access to food and purchasing power of the population. The value of remittances received decreased in 2015 and in early 2016. Tajikistan will count up to 30% fewer remittances this year compared to same season last year. Lack of drinking and irrigation water remains a challenge for households living in food insecure areas. Acute food insecurity situation for the period of December 2015 to March 2016 has worsened and results show that overall food security situation has deteriorated with more areas shifting to Phase 3. The IPC provides global standards and protocols for food security analysis and classification using a food security severity scale. Based on technical consensus among a wide range of food security stakeholders, the IPC is an efficient and transparent tool for decision-makers, including donors, assistance agencies and governments, to identify priorities for intervention. WFP has been conducting the IPC in Tajikistan since September 2009. IPC Global Partners

Part 2: Summary of Findings, Methods, and Next Steps Key Findings and Issues Overall, the food security situation was analyzed in 13 livelihood zones for December-March 2015-2016 and 12 percent of rural population is classified in Phase 3- Crisis, with food consumption gaps resulting in very high acute malnutrition, in other words, this segment of the population is marginally able to meet minimum food needs. 38 percent of people are classified in Phase 2- Stressed, with minimally adequate food consumption, but unable to afford essential non-food expenditures without engaging in irreversible coping strategies. 50 percent of the population is classified in Phase 1- Minimal, where majority of households meet essential food and non-food needs without engaging in unsustainable strategies to access food and generate income. In general, the food security status of analyzed zones has deteriorated in the reporting months compared to the previous year. Remittances played a major role in determining livelihood of the households and became the main source of income to meet their daily basic needs. Lack of employment opportunities and reduced remittances are also negatively affecting the livelihood of the population in the country. Remittances continued to decline due to depreciation of the Russian Ruble against the US dollar and labour migration restrictions in the Russian Federation. The weakening labour market in Russia and introduction of strict regulations on labor migrants from foreign countries, significantly impacted the value of remittances in all analyzed livelihood zones, remittances decreased by more than 30% in average in comparison with the same season in the previous year. In addition, according to the Migration Service of the Ministry of Labor, Migration, and Employment of the Republic of Tajikistan from January to April 2016, around 210,000 Tajik labour migrants have reportedly left to work in the Russian Federation. Simultaneously, 270,000 labour migrants have returned during the same period contributing to lowering income of families, of which a significant portion is dependent on transfer of migrant remittances. The FSMS results show that 86 percent of the remittances received are used by households to purchase food. Rural households with depleted food reserves and inadequate food consumption (quantity and quality) are extremely vulnerable. This situation is exacerbated when other sources of income, apart from remittances, are nonexistent. Furthermore, those residing in remote areas, 100s of kilometers away from the centers, with difficult access to markets are particularly vulnerable during the lean season. The indicator of the wellbeing has been deteriorating as a result of a decrease in expenditure on food and healthcare in order to pay for other basic needs in December 2015. Subjective wellbeing around December 2015 was also negatively affected by a change in the amount and frequency of remittances. According to World Bank report Listening to Tajikistan wellbeing of the households surveyed in May 2016 has improved, of which 67 percent of respondents said that they are able to buy enough food. Several shocks, particularly high food prices, lack of drinking and irrigation water in many areas, unavailability or high cost of fertilizers, and animal diseases, have contributed to acute food insecurity (stressed or crisis) for thousands of people. Higher wheat flour prices further exacerbated the challenging situation, making food accessibility difficult for the poorest of the households who rely on local markets to fulfill the larger proportion of their food needs during the lean period. Food accessed by population in some areas is inadequately utilized due to limited access of households to clean water, combined with poor cooking practices and substandard household health environment. In these areas, households use traditional means for sanitation (open pit) and cooking fuel (firewood), drink and prepare food collected from unprotected water sources. Physical utilization of food is also inadequate in parts of the analyzed areas as evidence shows low access to drinking water, precarious household health environment, and poor feeding practices. Limited power supply and high costs of coal and firewood are greatly contributing to food insecurity of the households. The food insecure groups with low food consumption, poor dietary diversity and high food expenditure frequently use coping strategies. They are mainly located in remote areas with inaccessible markets. These are areas with high

proportion of migrant workers and where the population is mainly engaged in agricultural production but have limited access to irrigation water, fertile land, quality seeds and fertilizers. Food security outlook for the next 6 months (March - Sep 2015) The overall food security situation in most parts of the country is expected to stay stressed during the lean season. Food availability and access to food is expected to improve slightly after the lean season, leading to good prospects for agricultural crops, cereals, fruits and vegetables. Many households, particularly those dependent on remittances, will have to use additional coping strategies, and seek other opportunities or sources of income to make ends meet. Households expenditures have already shown some changes mainly due to the on-going economic crisis, reflected through increased food and health care expenditures of the total nonfood expenditures. In the coming months, expenditure on food is expected to remain high. The projected decline in GDP growth is expected to slow poverty reduction through 2016. Purchasing power of households is expected to slightly improve during the harvesting season, as a result of increased food production and reduced prices of locally produced foods. The value of remittances from Tajik migrant workers in the Russian Federation will likely remain below the average throughout the outlook period. A possible decrease in number of labor migrants is imminent given the re-entry bans and stricter regulation. Despite difficulties, labour migrants will continue traveling to Russia and many of them will sell their productive assets or undertake loans to be able to cover the expenses associated with fulfilling requirements to legally work in Russia. As a result, initial earnings of many labour migrants are expected to be used to repay the debts. During summer and fall seasons, alternative sources of food and income might be available for households, including construction work, casual labor, particularly in regional and district centers. Prices for imported food commodities, including imported wheat flour from Kazakhstan are expected to increase in the coming months due to decline of the value of the TJS and seasonal high prices for wheat flour until September- November. The prices for staple food products may also rise, until early harvesting in some areas, which is expected in June-July. Starting from July, prices for the domestic food products might probably reduce due to the summer season and availability of the fodder for the animals. The prices for other staple food may also rise, until the harvesting season. There is a possibility of natural disasters occurring in some villages including landslides, hailstorms, mudflows and locust infestation in May-July. Increased water level in the rivers might lead to erosion of riverbanks and salinization of soil in arable areas. This may result in poor agricultural productivity and further contribute to rising food prices. The areas that are the most vulnerable in terms of geographical location, are also unpredictable in terms of risk of natural hazards. The probability of natural disasters is very high, which might lead to road closures and impede transportation, further decreasing access and availability of food. Fewer sowing of cereals and vegetables is planned in the public sector and dekhkan farms in 2016 compared to 2015, in some Livelihood zones. Generally, the production of cereals and vegetables in 2016, is expected to be less in some districts. Methods, Process & Key Issues In Tajikistan the IPC is conducted in a participatory manner since 2009, involving a wide range of food security stakeholders, including partners from the Ministry of Agriculture and the country s Statistics Agency. Its goal is to produce an accurate picture of the food security situation in the rural areas in the country. Five consultations were held during this round bringing together specialists from all four regions to examine data and research on health and nutrition, water and food access/availability, income and employment, crop yields, food consumption, coping strategies and other essential indicators for food security. Plenary sessions were held to discuss issues arising and to standardize and harmonize the different data and information sources during the analyses. During this round the participants reviewed information from various secondary sources, which was then organized according to IPC outcome indicators and contributing factors. Major sources of information included various reports and data from the State Statistical Agency under the President of RT, the Ministry of Agriculture, Regional and District Departments of Health and Social Protection, Economic Development and Trade, Irrigation and Water Resources, the

Committee of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense, WFP Food Security Monitoring System (FSMS), FEWS Net livelihood zone classification and monthly reports, FAO/GEWS reports, the World Bank poverty analysis reports, Reports and materials from ADB and IMF, the IFPRI, the DHS report, and periodic reports, etc. Food Security Seasonal Calendar and Monitoring Implications Food security levels frequently fluctuate throughout the year, analyzing these fluctuations against seasonal hazards and livelihood calendars can help identify when and how interventions are planned to mitigate the impact of seasonal factors on food security. The calendars show that Tajikistan experiences a lean season from around January through mid-april or May, while the harvest season spans from May to the end of December. IPC Technical Working Groups (TWGs) in regions concluded that consistent and regular monitoring of the food security situation in the country should be maintained and strengthened. Particular attention should be given to indicators that measure economic access to food and malnutrition at regional and district levels. Increased efforts in monitoring nutrition in rural areas, along with agriculture, water and health programs with a nutrition focus are required to be designed and implemented by local authorities and partners. Recommendations for Next Steps for Analysis and Decision-Making Based on discussions leading to consensus among the IPC Technical Working Groups (TWG) in Kurgan-Tyube, Kulob, Gharm, Khujand and Khorog, experts recommended the following activities and interventions for improving food security situation: Improve the environment in which migrants operate. This will involve efforts to ensure better treatment of Tajik migrants in host countries and improving information support services for migrants and their families as well as potential migrants. Provide better financial services to migrants and their families. This would help capture a larger share of remittance inflows through banks and create the basis for broadening the deposit base and better financing for private investments. Invest in building human capital (including basic education, specialized skills, and language skills). Efforts in job creation should be enhanced. Migrants who returned home from Russia and have required skills in specific fields should be given a priority in obtaining alternative job opportunities. With a highly uncertain external environment and growing domestic pressures, Tajikistan must put in place a comprehensive structural reform program to bolster growth, job creation, and poverty reduction. The current difficult situation should be seen as an opportunity to direct the economy to a private-sector-led growth model to generate more and better-paying jobs. There are threats of natural disasters in the region due to climate change, which is likely to lead to road closures and decrease access to the food commodities, apart from damaging crops and food stocks. People

whose houses and lands might be affected by floods and earthquakes will be busy with reconstruction or rehabilitation, requiring food assistance from the government; FFA projects can be implemented to assist these particularly vulnerable families in need. Special emphasis should be given to programs that aim to improve irrigation systems and provide better access of water to households and farmers. Coordination in identifying vulnerable zones and geographical priorities for water resource management projects should be improved between partners. Farmers and households engaged in production of agricultural crops should be better supported in combating pests in fruit and potato cultivation, advice and expertise on using quality seeds and pesticides should also be provided. Investment in construction of greenhouses should be increased for a longer growing season of vegetables. This will improve the availability of and access to vegetables and fruits in the markets. Explanatory and educational activities on nutrition and food dietary diversity issues amongst population should be enhanced. Households residing in remote areas would particularly benefit from this activity. Next Steps The next IPC consultations will take place in the fourth quarter of 2016 in Kurgan-Tyube (for Eastern part of Khatlon and Central part of DRD districts), Kulob, Khujand, Gharm and Khorog. The following are recommendations made IPC Technical Working Groups (TWG) on the next steps: Increase awareness at national and regional level capacity building of existing TWG, and creation of TWG at central level. Institutionalization of IPC within relevant governmental organizations and creating IPC Steering Committee. Encourage data sharing culture within government and non-governmental organizations. Inclusion of IPC acute and chronic indicators in government and non-governmental organization s routine data collection system. In consultation with all food security and nutrition focal points, find appropriate time for IPC classifications and turns. Reduce reliance on FSMS as a standalone survey for IPC and increase FSMS sample size for increased representation. Aggregate vulnerable Jamoats and collect IPC relevant information. Follow up on the use of IPC in decision making. Keep IPC global standards for comparability; sustain and encourage leading role of the Ministry of Agriculture and the country s State Statistics Agency on implementation of the process. Use online Information Support System in the next analysis. Maintain consistent and regular monitoring of the food security situation in the country, particularly in Jamoat and District levels, with the particular attention to indicators that measure economic access to food and malnutrition. Provide support in development of analytical capacities of TWGs to enable analysts with the necessary skills and knowledge to produce relevant, credible and accessible information products that support decisionmaking. Based on technical consensus among a wide range of food security stakeholders, the IPC is an efficient and transparent tool for decision-makers, including donors, assistance agencies and governments, to identify priorities for intervention. WFP would like to thank IPC consultative Forums participants from the Ministry of Agriculture, the Committee of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense, Regional and District Hukumats, the State Statistics Agency, Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources, Ministry of Health and Social Protection, Banks, Oxfam, Save the Children, Mercy Corps, UNDP, UNICEF, OSCE, MSDSP, AKDN, Red Crescent Society of Tajikistan for their valuable contribution. Contact for Further Information IPC Technical Working Group: Tajikistan.FoodSecurityCluster@wfp.org IPC Global Support Unit: www.ipcinfo.org

Part 3: Population Tables Livelihood Zone Livelihood Zone 1: Eastern Pamir Plateau Livestock Zone Livelihood Zone 2: Western Pamir Valley Migratory Work Zone Livelihood Zone 3: Western Pamir Irrigated Agriculture Zone Livelihood Zone 4: Rasht Valley Irrigated Potato Zone Livelihood Zone 5: Khatlon Mountain Agro-Pastoral Zone Livelihood Zone 6: Southern Khatlon Cotton, Vegetable and Wheat Zone Livelihood Zone 7: Khatlon Rain fed Wheat and Livestock Zone Livelihood Zone 8: Central and Eastern Tajikistan Agro-Industrial Zone Livelihood Zone 9: Eastern and Central Zeravshan Valley Agro-pastoral Zone Livelihood Zone 10: Panjakent Rice, Fruit, and Vegetable Zone % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. 35,926 9 3,233 58 20,837 27 9,603 6.69 2404-0 33 12,007 149,986 12 17,998 57 85,492 26 38,771 4.95 7428-0 31 46,199 40,490 16 6,478 66 26,723 18 7,462-0 - 0 18 7,462 458,489 20 91,698 46 210,905 34 155,886-0 - 0 34 155,886 221,632 42 93,085 45 99,734 13 28,812-0 - 0 13 28,812 1,281,159 32 409,971 53 679,014 15 192,174-0 - 0 15 192,174 577,779 37 213,778 48 277,334 15 86,667-0 - 0 15 86,667 1,023,266 75 767,450 19 194,421 6 61,396-0 - 0 6 61,396 337,256 59 198,981 33 111,294 8 26,980-0 - 0 8 26,980 104,497 60 62,698 34 35,529 6 6,270-0 - 0 6 6,270 Livelihood Zone 11: Ghonchi and Istaravshan Rainfed Cereal, Fruit, and Vegetable Zone 248,812 68 169,192 27 67,179 5 12,441-0 - 0 5 12,441 Livelihood Zone 12: North Sughd Agro- 1,113,929 Industrial Zone 75 835,447 21 233,925 4 44,557-0 - 0 4 44,557 Livelihood Zone 13: Khatlon Agroindustrial Peri-urban Zone Total rural population* Source : The State Statistics Agency of the Republic of Tajikistan Population Table Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 3 or higher 447,074 33 147,534 57 254,832 10 44,707-0 - 0 10 44,707 Total: 6,040,295 50 3,017,544 38 2,297,221 12 715,727 0.16 9832 0 12 725,559