THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco, CA 94108-2814 (415) 392-5763 FAX: (415) 434-2541 EMAIL: fieldpoll@field.com www.field.com/fieldpollonline Release #2527 Release Date: Thursday, January 14, 2016 VOTERS APPROVE OF BROWN'S JOB PERFORMANCE NEARLY TWO TO ONE. MORE THINK CALIFORNIA IS MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN 0195-4520) The state's registered voters continue to view the job that Governor Jerry Brown is doing in a very positive light. Nearly twice as many Californians now approve (56%) as disapprove (30%) of his performance overall. Since he won reelection to what is now his fourth term as governor in November 2014, The Field Poll has shown Brown to be highly regarded by voters, consistently receiving approval ratings in the mid to high fifty percent range, while fewer than one in three disapprove. When asked about their reasons for their views, most voters say they believe Brown has the right experience to deal with the problems facing California and that he has the vision to lead the state forward into the future. Voters also credit him with making California a world leader in reducing its dependence on fossil fuels. However, voters also think the Governor favors too many big government projects that the state cannot afford and have mixed views about whether he is doing enough to help the average resident. Voters are also upbeat about the direction of the state. The current survey finds more voters saying California is moving in the right direction (50%) as believing it is seriously off on the wrong track (42%). Democrats and coastal county voters hold a much more optimistic view of the state than Republicans and those living in the state's inland counties. These are the findings from the latest statewide Field Poll completed among 1,003 registered voters in early January. Field Research Corporation is an Equal Opportunity Employer
Thursday, January 14, 2016 Page 2 Voters approve of Governor Brown's job performance nearly two to one By a 56% to 30% margin more California voters say they approve than disapprove of the job Brown is doing as governor. Brown has consistently received very positive job performance appraisals from the state's electorate since winning reelection to what his now his fourth term as the state's chief executive in 2014. Similar to past measures, opinions about Brown are highly partisan, with greater than three in four Democrats (77%) approving, while nearly two in three Republicans (62%) disapprove. Table 1 Trend of Brown's job performance ratings during his current tenure as Governor (among California registered voters) Approve Disapprove No opinion January 2016 56% 30 14 October 2015 56% 32 12 May 2015 58% 26 16 February 2015 56% 32 12 September 2014 58% 36 6 June 2014 54% 29 17 April 2014 59% 32 9 December 2013 58% 33 9 July 2013 51% 33 16 February 2013 57% 31 12 October 2012 46% 37 17 September 2012 46% 37 17 July 2012 44% 42 14 Late May 2012 43% 40 17 February 2012 45% 38 17 November 2011 47% 36 17 September 2011 49% 32 19 June 2011 46% 31 23 March 2011 48% 21 31 Party registration (January 2016) Democrats 77% 14 9 Republicans 23% 62 15 No party preference/others 57% 23 20
Thursday, January 14, 2016 Page 3 Most voters credit Brown's experience, vision, and reducing the state's dependence on fossil fuels When asked to appraise Brown across different dimensions, two in three voters (65%) credit him as having the right experience to deal with the problems facing California and 55% believe the Governor has the vision to lead California into the future. A similar 55% majority also credits Brown for making California a world leader in reducing its dependence on fossil fuels. Democrats and no party preference voters are much more likely than Republicans offer favorable assessments of Brown in each of these areas. Table 2 Voter reaction to three positive statements made about Governor Brown (among California registered voters) Has the right experience to deal with the problems facing California Applies to Governor Brown A lot/some Not at all No opinion Total registered voters 65% 28 7 Democrats 76% 17 7 Republicans 42% 49 9 No party preference/others 71% 25 4 Has the vision to lead California into the future Total registered voters 55% 38 7 Democrats 74% 18 8 Republicans 24% 69 7 No party preference/others 58% 36 6 Is making California a world leader in reducing the State's dependence on fossil fuels Total registered voters 55% 31 14 Democrats 65% 23 12 Republicans 37% 46 17 No party preference/others 57% 31 12
Thursday, January 14, 2016 Page 4 A majority also criticizes Brown for favoring too many big government projects While voters' overall assessments of the Governor are positive, a 56% majority criticize him for favoring too many big government projects that voters feel the state cannot afford. Greater than three in four Republicans (78%) hold this view, as do 52% of the state's non-partisans. Even a plurality of Democrats (45%) believes this applies to Brown either a lot or some. Voters are more divided when asked whether Brown is doing enough to help the average Californian. Statewide, nearly as many (45%) maintain that he is not as feel he is (46%). Republicans are more likely than other voters to voice this criticism. Table 3 Voter reaction to two negative statements made about Governor Brown (among California registered voters) Favors too many big government projects that the State cannot afford right now Applies to Governor Brown A lot/some Not at all No opinion Total registered voters 56% 32 12 Democrats 45% 39 16 Republicans 78% 12 10 No party preference/others 52% 40 8 Is not doing enough to help the average Californian Total registered voters 45% 46 9 Democrats 42% 47 11 Republicans 55% 35 10 No party preference/others 41% 53 7 More Californians now believe the state is moving in the right direction By a 50% to 42% margin more voters believe the state is moving in the right direction than feel it is seriously off on the wrong track. This is a more optimistic assessment than The Field Poll observed last May when as many felt California was on the wrong track (40%) as was moving in the right direction (40%). Assessments of the overall direction of the state are highly partisan and also relate to the region where a voter lives. Majorities of Democrats (72%) and voters living in the state's twenty coastal counties (54%) believe the state is generally moving in the right direction. However, Republicans and voters who reside in the state's forty-eight inland counties offer a more negative assessment.
Thursday, January 14, 2016 Page 5 Table 4 Trend in voter views about the direction that California is heading (among registered voters) Right direction Wrong track No opinion January 2016 50% 42 8 May 2015 40% 40 20 February 2015 50% 41 9 September 2014 43% 41 16 June 2014 41% 46 13 2013 (average) 44% 44 12 2012 (average) 30% 59 11 2011 (average) 24% 66 10 2010 (average) 13% 80 7 2009 (average) 17% 75 8 2008 (average) 22% 69 9 2007 (average) 45% 43 12 2006 (average) 37% 49 14 2005 (average) 31% 58 11 2004 (average) 39% 48 13 2003 (average) 20% 72 8 2002 (average) 37% 52 11 2001 (average) 43% 50 7 2000 (average) 58% 35 7 1999 (average) 52% 34 14 1998 (average) 48% 42 10 1997 (average) 36% 54 10 1996 (average) 39% 49 12 1995 (average) 32% 57 11 1994 (average) 21% 70 9 1993 (average) 11% 83 6 1992 (average) 7% 90 3 1989 (average) 50% 42 8 1988 (average) 52% 43 5 Party registration (January 2016) Democrats 72% 22 6 Republicans 17% 77 6 No party preference/others 49% 38 13 Area (January 2016) Coastal counties 54% 38 8 Inland counties 40% 52 8 Note: Surveys prior to 1996 conducted among all California adults, not just registered adults. 30
Thursday, January 14, 2016 Page 6 Methodological Details Information About The Survey The findings in this report come from a Field Poll completed December 15, 2015-January 3, 2016 among 1,003 registered voters in California. Interviews were administered by telephone using live interviewers in English and Spanish. In order to cover a broad range of issues and minimize voter fatigue, some of the questions in this report are based on a random subsamples of either 417 or 533 registered voters statewide. Individual voters were sampled at random from listings derived from the statewide voter registration rolls. Once a voter's name and telephone number had been selected, interviews were attempted with voters on their landline or cell phone depending on the source of the listing from the voter file and the preference of the voter. Up to four attempts were made to reach, screen and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. After the completion of interviewing, the sample was weighted to align it to the proper distribution of voters by race/ethnicity and other demographic, geographic and party registration characteristics of the state's registered voter population. Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size and the percentage distributions being examined. The maximum sampling error for results from the overall registered voter sample is +/- 3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The maximum sampling error for findings from the random subsamples is +/- 4.5 percentage points. These estimates are based on survey findings in the middle of the sampling distribution (i.e., results at or near 50%). Percentages at or near either end of the tail of the distributions (i.e., results closer to 10% or 90%) have somewhat smaller margins of error. There are other potential sources of error in surveys of public opinion besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of this survey sought to minimize these other possible errors. The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field. The Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public opinion. The Field Poll receives financial support from leading California newspapers and television stations, who purchase the rights of first release to Field Poll reports in their primary viewer or readership markets. The Poll also receives funding from the University of California and California State University systems, who receive the data files from each Field Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondary research purposes, as well as from foundations, non-profit organizations, and others as part of the Poll's policy research sponsor program. Questions Asked Thinking about this state, do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things are seriously off on the wrong track?* Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jerry Brown is handling his job as Governor of California? I am going to read some things that have been said about Governor Jerry Brown. For each please tell me whether you think this applies a lot, some, a little or not at all. (ITEMS READ IN RANDOM ORDER) Does this apply to Governor Brown a lot, some, a little or not at all? (SEE RELEASE FOR ITEMS READ)** * Asked of a random subsample of 533 registered voters statewide. ** Asked of a random subsample of 417 registered voters statewide.