Obama Builds Real Lead in Presidential Contest Report on post-convention survey September 14, 2012
2 Methodology and Overview This presentation is based on a survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps. The survey of 1000 likely 2012 voters (1000 weighted) nationwide was conducted from September 8 to 12, 2012. Unless otherwise noted, margin of error= +/-3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence.
3 Key Findings Obama leads by 5 points on the ballot, to percent against Mitt Romney. All of the President s gains came with what we have called the Rising American Electorate young people, minorities, and unmarried women the new broad base for progressives. This was a base convention for Democrats whose base forms nearly half of the electorate. Obama is now winning 68 percent of unmarried women matching his 2008 level with this group. Romney s running mate, Paul Ryan, is not helping the ticket. His personal rating has not improved in the three weeks since the Republican convention stuck in slightly negative territory. The engagement gap: Nearly an equal number of Democrats and Republicans now say they are following the election very closely. But minorities, unmarried women, and particularly women, trail the electorate overall on this key measure. Both candidates improved their personal images in the conventions, but Mitt Romney remains in negative territory and he is running out of opportunities to change voters gut feelings about him. In our monthly tracking dating back to January 2011, Mitt Romney has yet to receive a net positive personal rating. Obama makes gains, but the weak economy still helps Romney. Obama has narrowed Romney s advantage on the economy to a 2-point deficit, but that still creates downward pressure in the race. There is no improvement in the country s economic mood, even if there is greater confidence in its leadership.
Political climate 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 4
5 Direction of the country: strongest in 3 years Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold The state of the economy. Right Direction Wrong Track 2009 2010 2011 2012 78 76 72 61 56 54 55 51 53 39 48 38 28 8 37 39 22 1617 58 58 62 62 57 5961 66 63 6264 66 65 58 59 56 58 61 35 36 31 28 33 34 31 33 36 33 29 3029 29 26 26 26 28 75 76 69 65 59 59 60 58 62 55 16 15 19 29 34 33 32 36 39 32 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12
6 Tough economy, with no improvement in 2012 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold The state of the economy. Warm Cool 2009 2010 2011 2012 777979 7978 71 67 6566 66 65 61 64 64 72 70 63 63 60 70 71 68 69 66 6362 67 68 66 68 74 79 74 66 60 59 57 56 61 57 21 12 1315 15 16 16 17 19 19 9 8 9 8 23 20 21 19 16 16 18 18 13 13 13 18 22 16 16 19 17 19 22 24 24 22 23 25 12 9 11 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12
Image bump for everyone Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and meaning not particularly warm or cold. Barack Obama Democratic Party Democrats in Congress Republican Party Republican Congress 2010 Election 56 53 53 51 51 51 51 54 51 52 52 51 51 51 51 51 49 49 48 48 49 48 48 48 48 49 48 39 39 39 39 1/12/2010 4/20/2010 7/29/2010 10/16/2010 2/9/2011 5/25/2011 10/18/2011 2/14/2012 7/25/2012 9/12/2012 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted in the past two years. Data represents MEAN ratings, likely voters.
8 Obama, Democrats continue to enjoy favorability gap with Romney, Republicans Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. President Congress Parties Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 51.9 Mean:.0 Mean:.6 Mean:.7 Mean: 48.0 Mean:.0 Net: +7 Net: -4 Net: -8 Net: -17 Net: -2 Net: -7 38 38 32 39 26 21 14 26 19 38 35 35 37 34 34 49 Barack Obama Mitt Romney Democrats in Congress Republican Congress Democratic Party Republican Party
9 Obama a net 11 points more favorable than Romney Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Barack Obama Mitt Romney Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 51.9 Net: +7 Mean:.0 Net: -4 39 26 38 35
Opinion of Ryan hasn t moved; not helping the ticket Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Paul Ryan Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean:.3 Net: -1 Mean:.6 Net: -1 37 37 24 26 31 32 38 38 Percent identifying: 83% August Percent identifying: 85% September 10
11 Negative ratings of Romney down after Republican convention Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Mitt Romney. Warm Cool Mitt Romney Cool 35 36 36 38 38 30 33 Warm 25 24 25 25 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12
12 Among white non-college Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Mitt Romney. Warm Cool Mitt Romney Among white non-college Cool 36 33 38 35 39 38 39 30 Warm 24 23 27 25 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12
13 The vote matchup: After his convention, Obama s lead up to 5 points I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? September 48 48 48 48 48 48 49 49 49 1/11/2011 5/25/2011 10/18/2011 2/14/2012 7/25/2012 9/12/2012 Obama Romney
In battleground states, Obama gains I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? Presidential Battleground States September 49 48 49 51 51 1/11/2011 5/25/2011 11/20/2011 5/1/2012 8/27/2012 Obama Romney *Note: The presidential battleground is composed of PA, WI, MI, NC, NV, CO, NM, VA, FL, IA, OH, and NH. 14
15 Race tightening among white non-college voters I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? White non-college-educated September 57 56 59 54 59 56 56 56 55 57 59 57 60 59 55 55 36 39 34 36 33 37 33 34 39 37 37 37 36 37 1/11/2011 5/25/2011 10/18/2011 2/14/2012 7/25/2012 9/12/2012 Obama Romney
16 Obama trending upwards among suburban voters I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? Suburban 63 September 56 37 52 55 55 56 52 38 37 39 51 53 52 52 54 54 34 1/11/2011 5/25/2011 10/18/2011 2/14/2012 7/25/2012 9/12/2012 Obama Romney
17 Makes big gains among unmarried women I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? Unmarried women 56 57 68 60 61 61 62 54 60 65 60 63 60 61 68 68 September 36 34 26 29 32 33 26 37 34 30 37 32 33 36 28 28 1/11/2011 5/25/2011 10/18/2011 2/14/2012 7/25/2012 9/12/2012 Obama Romney
18 Strong among youth last two months I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? Youth 63 62 September 53 53 55 54 54 55 49 55 55 57 51 62 38 36 39 38 34 34 35 32 1/11/2011 5/25/2011 10/18/2011 2/14/2012 7/25/2012 9/12/2012 Obama Romney
Obama ahead on potential voters, loyalist support Potential: 53% 39 Obama Not Obama 9 1 1 1 1 3 Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable Potential: 49% 35 Romney Not Romney 8 2 1 4 3 2 Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable 19
20 No enthusiasm gap: Democrats are following nearly as closely as Republicans How closely have you been following news about candidates for this year's presidential election -- very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Following the race very closely 53 All voters Democrats Independents Republicans
21 But engagement among important Obama voters still lagging How closely have you been following news about candidates for this year's presidential election -- very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very closely 48 31 All voters Minorities Rising American Electorate Unmarried women Youth
22 Obama gains, but Romney with lead on the economy Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Barack Obama or the Mitt Romney would do a better job with this issue The economy. The economy September Total Romney better +2 Total Obama better 32 37 39 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Obama Romney
Voters trust Obama more on Medicare Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would do a better job with this issue Medicare. Medicare Obama much better Romney much better +6 49 37 26 Obama Romney
Obama approval at 49 percent Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Total Approve Total Disapprove Barack Obama Inauguration 2010 Election 57 58 55 55 57 58 58 57 55 53 53 54 51 51 48 48 48 49 48 49 51 52 51 52 53 49 49 49 49 49 48 48 48 48 27 34 35 32 33 3536 19 19 20 11/23/2008 3/8/2009 6/2/2009 9/17/2009 3/18/2010 7/29/2010 1/11/2011 5/25/2011 11/20/2011 6/28/2012 9/12/2012 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys since the 2008 election. Before inauguration, question read: Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Barack Obama as president-elect? 24
Congressional race still dead even I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections for Congress in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE or REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE*? Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate 2008 Election Health care reform 2010 Election 53 48 51 48 48 49 49 48 48 11/6/2008 7/26/2009 2/23/2010 7/29/2010 10/18/2010 6/21/2011 2/14/2012 9/12/2012 * In the landline sample, the incumbent names were inserted preceded by party identification. Generic the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate were inserted for the opposition. For the cell phone sample and open seat districts, both candidates were given as generic
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