Do Russians Want Change? Results From Polling and Focus Groups Conducted by the Carnegie Moscow Center and Levada Center Andrei Kolesnikov February 8, 2018
Does Russia need change? Most Russians understand that the country cannot move forward or stay in place without change. Decisive, comprehensive changes 42% Only minor changes 41% No 11% Not sure Note: The Levada Center polled 1,602 Russians over the age of 18 throughout Russia in August 2017. Four focus groups were held in Moscow in July 2017 and were comprised of young liberals, older liberals, young conservatives, and older conservatives.
Youth least desire radical change Support for the government is higher among youth than the national average. Decisive, comprehensive changes Only minor changes No Not sure 18-24 3 46% 15% 6% 25-39 42% 41% 10% 40-54 42% 41% 11% 6% 55+ 4 40% 10%
The vulnerable want more change Those who have least benefitted from the system are a perfect target for populist politicians. Decisive, comprehensive changes Only minor changes No Not sure Barely afford food 4 3 11% Enough for clothes 43% 41% 10% Afford all basic needs 36% 4 13%
Russians name material well-being as the goal of reforms What should be the main objectives of change in Russia? Improved living standards Social protection Agricultural development 9% 1 25% [Russian leaders] don t love their people and are trying to fleece them. Economic development Industrial development Anti-corruption Higher quality of life Job creation 5% Better healthcare Better education Great-power status 3%
And want the state to shift from foreign policy to domestic policy What should be the main objectives of change in Russia? Improved living standards 25% Social protection 1 Agricultural development Economic development Industrial development Anti-corruption Higher quality of life Job creation Better healthcare Better education Great-power status 9% 5% 3% It is time to work on Russia s domestic policy, because foreign policy seems to achieve its goals.
Many Russians desire a strong, paternalistic state Which situation would be better? Not sure 1 No state intervention in the economy, completely free market 1 69% Active state intervention in the economy, reallocation of resources, price regulation, etc. People in [remote towns] want change too... They want the government to get stronger, they want all rich people to be shot, they want kind Comrade Stalin to come back and save everyone.
Though many Muscovites and liberals prioritize political reforms Which of the following aspects of public policy do you consider a priority? Outside Moscow Moscow 0% 20% 40% 60% Improving medical services Reducing inflation Improving education Businessmen simply can t operate in the current conditions. Developing agriculture Improving housing and utilities Improving state accountability Supporting small and medium businesses Upholding independence of the courts We just need the existing constitution to be obeyed. Ensuring free and fair elections Expanding democratic rights and freedoms
Most Russians cannot name an appealing reformer Name a politician who can offer a plan of reforms that you find appealing: No one Not sure 31% 30% Vladimir Putin 25% Vladimir Zhirinovsky Gennady Zyuganov Sergei Shoigu Sergei Lavrov Dmitry Medvedev Alexei Navalny 6% 5% 3% 2%
They recall reformers of the past Name a politician who can offer a plan of reforms that you find appealing: No one Not sure Vladimir Putin Vladimir Zhirinovsky 25% 31% 30% Reformers of the Past: Peter the Great Pyotr Stolypin Catherine the Great Alexander II Gennady Zyuganov 6% Sergei Shoigu 5% Sergei Lavrov Dmitry Medvedev 3% Alexei Navalny 2%
But they have little faith in the success of reforms Name a politician who can offer a plan of reforms that you find appealing: No one Not sure Vladimir Putin Vladimir Zhirinovsky 25% 31% 30% Reformers of the Past: Peter the Great Pyotr Stolypin Catherine the Great Alexander II Gennady Zyuganov 6% Sergei Shoigu Sergei Lavrov Dmitry Medvedev 5% 3% No one has conducted reforms successfully in contemporary Russia: Even Putin can t fix these problems. Alexei Navalny 2%
Russians are reluctant to bear the costs of reforms Are you willing to accept the following costs to improve future quality of life? Higher retirement age Loss of social benefits Partial payment of medical expenses 1 16% 6% 2 Willing Not Willing 75% 7 66% Difficult to Answer
Russians are reluctant to bear the costs of reforms Are you willing to accept the following costs to improve future quality of life? Higher retirement age Loss of social benefits Partial payment of medical expenses 1 16% 6% 2 Willing Not Willing 75% 7 66% Difficult to Answer Most people want changes, but they don t want to do anything to make them happen. People say that the common folk should pay the price for reforms. Why can t the oligarchs pay this price?
Many Russians still see voting as a means of change Which of the following would you personally do to change the situation in the country? Vote for parties/candidates proposing reforms 43% Sign open letters/petitions Submit complaints/suggestions to the government Work for public/political organizations Volunteer for public/political organizations or causes 21% 20% 16% 12% Join protest rallies, marches, strikes Run for public office Donate to public and political organizations or projects 5% Not sure 30%