LEVERAGING DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ACROSS COUNTRIES: POLICY PRIORITIES GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2015/2016 - WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR OPERATIONS? OCTOBER 29, 2015 WASHINGTON DC MARYLA MALISZEWSKA DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS GROUP
Key messages Differences in demographic dynamics across countries change comparative advantages that underpin trade and returns to labor and capital To increase benefits from diverging demographic patterns, countries need to implement policies to enhance trade in goods and services, and promote greater factor mobility 1 GMR 2015/2016
Leveraging greater globalization Many policy priorities focused on harnessing or addressing demographic change within countries Scope for leveraging demographic differences between countries Trade Migration Capital flows Channels are complementary Generally, migration more constrained than trade and capital flows 2 GMR 2015/2016
Labor-intensive imports can compensate the declining labor force in aging countries Export shares, percent (2015) Changes in export shares, percent point (2015-2030) 100 20 80 60 40 20 0 15 10 5 0-5 -10 Pre- Early- Late- Post- Pre- Pre- Early- Late- Post- Agriculture Natural resources Low-skilled labor-intensive manufacturing High-skilled labor-intensive manufacturing Low-skilled labor-intensive services High-skilled labor-intensive services Note: Pre-, Early-, Late-, and Post- refer to the four stages of demographic transition of countries, Linkage simulations. 3 GMR 2015/2016
Lowering trade costs can boost incomes and contribute to poverty reduction Net impact of trade facilitation on GDP in 2030 (%) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5 Pre- Early- Late- Post- World Poverty rate, percent 50 40 30 20 10 0 2011 2030 Baseline 2030 Trade facilitation WB poverty target Pre- Early- Late- Post- World Note: Pre-, Early-, Late-, and Post- refer to the four stages of demographic transition of countries, Linkage simulations. 4 GMR 2015/2016
Policies to leverage trade Support comparative advantage in laborintensive products Streamline customs, border and transit performance Improve logistics and transport services Extend physical infrastructure Tackle tariff and nontariff barriers on goods trade Promote foreign provision of education and promote life long learning Ease visa requirements students/academics Address qualification recognition issues Reduce limits on foreign ownership Transparent education regulations Health services exports to aging countries Address restrictions on a) physical presence of foreign suppliers; b) foreign equity ceilings; and c) barriers on crossborder movement of health care professionals. 5 GMR 2015/2016
Migrants mitigate the decline in working-age population Migrant stock in millions in 2013 140 120 100 From pre-dividend From late-dividend From early-dividend From post-dividend 80 60 40 20 0 To pre-dividend To early-dividend To late-dividend To post-dividend 6 GMR 2015/2016
Policies to leverage migration Promoting legal migration flows Reducing burden of brain drain in sending countries Formulate clear migration policies Enforce minimum wage laws Provide adequate information to migrants on rights/obligations Facilitate contribution to and benefits from social protection/public services Sanction abusive firms Develop comprehensive and targeted policies to retain and attract talent Encourage return migration 7 GMR 2015/2016
Younger countries may attract capital flows and increase capital intensity as older countries seek higher returns Capital flows could be greater if quality of financial institutions in developing countries converge to that of developed countries Gross capital flows, US$ trillions 10 8 2015 2030 Gradual convergence 2030 Rapid convergence 6 4 2 0 Pre-dividend Early-dividend Late-dividend Post-dividend 8 GMR 2015/2016
Policies to leverage capital flows Attract capital to labor abundant countries Create favorable investment climate Strengthen macroeconomic stability, financial sector and governance Relax investment barriers at the domestic, regional and global level Reduce challenges from capital flow volatility Introduce macroeconomic policies and regulations to build resilience Sound financial supervision Strong institutions Support investment in younger countries Provide investment guarantees or technical assistance 9 GMR 2015/2016
Thank You Global Monitoring Report 2015/2015 www.worldbank.org/gmr Questions or comments? Maryla Maliszewska (mmaliszewska@worldbank.org) 10 GMR 2015/2016