1800 K Street, NW Suite 400 Washington, DC 20006 Phone: 1.202.775.3270 Fax: 1.202.775.3199 Web: www.csis.org/burke/reports The Afghan-Pakistan War: Status in 2009 Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy With assistance by Nicholas B. Greenough April 12, 2009
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Enemy Initiated Attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan: May 2003 to March 2009 GAO: Iraq and Afghanistan, March 2009, GAO-09-476T, p.4. 3
Enemy Initiated Attacks in Afghanistan May 2003 to March 2009 GAO: Iraq and Afghanistan, March 2009, GAO-09-476T, p.11. 4
Average Daily Insurgent Initiated Attacks 5
NATO/ISAF: Key Trends: 1st Quarter 2009 -I Source: NATO/ISAF, April 9, 2009 6
NATO/ISAF: Key Trends: 1st Quarter 2009 -II Source: NATO/ISAF, April 9, 2009
NATO/ISAF: Key Trends: 1st Quarter 2009 -III Source: NATO/ISAF, April 9, 2009 8
2008 Kinetic Activity Security Summary (February 2009) 40% of Afghans say country headed in right direction, 38% say headed in wrong direction* For Jan and Feb 09, 80% of kinetic events occurred in 11% of the districts NWFP Feb09 vs. Previous 3 Months Average (i.e. Nov08-Jan09) INS Initiated Attacks: +12% Kinetic Event Density Increasing Baluchistan Except for the two items with asterisks, the source of information on this slide is the NATO JOIIS database. * Source: ABC News / BBC / ARD Poll conducted 30 Dec 08 12 Jan 09 and published on 9 Feb 09. ** Source: CSTC-A. FATA IED Events: -15% Attacks on GIRoA: -37% Suicide Attacks: +3% (57% of all casualties since Jan 07) Kidnappings/Assassinations: +20% ISAF Deaths: +21% ANSF Deaths: -27% Civilian Deaths: +9% Building Host Nation Capacity:** ANA: 77 total Kandak BNs formed 47 Kandaks capable of BN Ops ANP: 52 districts undergoing FDD 13 of 20 Civil Order Police BNs fielded
Comparing Feb 09 to the previous three month period (Nov 08 Jan 09), insurgent attacks are up 12% overall: Direct Fire attacks are up 54% Indirect Fire attacks are down 32% IEDs are down 15% Surface to Air Fire is down 50% Insurgent Attacks Mild weather, increased troop strength, and an offensive spirit resulted in significantly more kinetic events this winter Insurgents shifting tactics toward softer targets Direct Fire Indirect Fire IED Surface-to-Air Fire 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 Winter Ramadan Winter Ramadan Winter 400 200 0 Jan 07 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Poppy Harvest Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 08 New PAK GOV negotiates w / FATA tribes Feb Mar Apr May Jun Poppy Harvest Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 09 Feb Source: NATO JOIIS Database
IED Events (Found and Detonated) Comparing Feb 09 to the previous three month period (Nov 08 Jan 09): Total IED events were down 15% Total casualties from IED events were down 26% (for ISAF, IED casualties down 45%) For the 3-month period ending Feb 09 relative to the same period ending Feb 08, discoveries (IED finds by ISAF / ANSF plus turn-ins by local nationals) were up 66% Since January 2007, discoveries account for 52% of all IED events ISAF Finds ANSF Finds Turn-Ins Detonations 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 07 08 Source: NATO JOIIS Database UNCLASS // REL USA ISAF NATO Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 09 Feb
IED Events (Found and Detonated) 12
IED Related Casualties 13
ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: Most Likely Outcome of War 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Afghan Gov't Will Win Both Sides Negotiate Fighting Will Go On Taliban Will Win 33% 33% 19% 8% Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009 14
NATO/ISAF: Public Perceptions of Security - 1Q 2009 - II Source: NATO/ISAF, April 9, 2009
ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: Afghan Ratings of Local Security: Feb 09 100% 90% 80% Positive Negative 70% 60% 50% 72% 69% 66% 55% 40% 42% 30% 20% 24% 30% 33% 10% 0% 10/18/05 10/19/06 11/7/07 20/2/09 Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009 16
ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: Afghan Experiences with Violence in Past Year: 2007 vs. 2009 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Civilians hurt by (Net 38%) 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Suicide Attacks Snipers Kidnappin gs Coalition bombings Coalition forces ANA/AN P Taliban 2009-2 26% 19% 31% 16% 21% 13% 24% 2007 27% 20% 25% 17% 24% 16% 27% Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009 17
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 58% ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: Biggest Danger to Afghanistan : 2-2009 Among other violence, a quarter report car bombs or suicide attacks in their area in the past year; three in 10, kidnappings for ransom. Thirty-eight percent report civilian casualties in the past year, attributed about equally either to U.S./NATO/ISAF or to anti- government forces, and somewhat less so to Afghan government forces. Given these and their many other challenges, the number of Afghans who expect their lives to improve in the year ahead has dropped from a peak of 67 percent in 2005 to 51 percent today. And just under half, 47 percent, expect a better life for their children, hardly a ringing endorsement of the country s prospects. The resurgence of the Taliban is a key element of the public! alarm: Fifty- eight percent of Afghans see the Taliban as the biggest danger to the country, measured against local warlords, drug traffickers or the U.S. or Afghan governments. And 43 percent say the Taliban have grown stronger in the past year, well more than the 24 percent who think the movement has weakened. 30% 20% 10% 0% Taliban 13% Drug Traffickers 8% 7% United States 1% Local Afghan Commander Government s. 58% 13% 8% 7% 1% Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009 18
ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: Who Afghans Mainly Blame for Violence: 2007 vs. 2009-2 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2007 2009-2 US, ISAF, Afghan Gov 26% 36% Taiiban 36% 27% Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009 19
100% ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: Trend in Experience with Taliban Violence :2006-2009/2 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Night Letters Bombings Killings Arson Figjhting Gov't/Foreign Troops 2006 24% 43% 42% 45% 45% 2007 26% 33% 34% 33% 42% 2009-2 21% 26% 32% 27% 33% Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009 20
ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: Afghan Positive Ratings of Local Security: Feb 09 100% 90% 80% 75% 76% 70% 60% 55% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 14% 23% 0% All Afghanistan Helmand Kandahar Kunduz Balkh Positive 55% 14% 23% 75% 76% Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009 21
ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: Perceived Freedom of Movement: 2007 vs. 2009-2 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2007 2009-2 Good 71% 61% Bad 28% 39% Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009 22