Back Boris 2012: The re-election campaign for the Mayor of London www.backboris2012.com
To understand what happened in 2012, look at 2008 1 st Preference Votes 1 st & 2 nd Preference Votes Boris Johnson Ken Livingstone 1,043,761 (43.2%) 893,877 (37.0%) 1,168,738 (53.2%) 1,028,966 (46.8%)
London a Labour city Tory 1 st Pref. Votes Labour 1 st Pref. Votes Boris 2008 Norris 2004 Norris 2000 1,043,761 Livingstone 2008 542,423 Livingstone 2004 464,434 Livingstone 2000 893,877 685,541 667,877
2008: Doughnut strategy plus the hole 2004 London Mayoral first preference votes by borough 2006 local elections control of borough councils www.backboris2012.com 2008 London Mayoral first preference votes by borough
2008 campaign Back Boris: A change for the better A tale of two Londons The public London and The London I live in We persuaded swing voters on the issues and motivated Conservative voters to turn out
2012: the national picture
Greater London: General election 2010 Party MPs Labour 38 Conservative 28 Liberal Democrat 7
Difficult times Recession Riots in August 2011 Cost of living rising A 17 point Labour lead in London in January 2012
UK Right/Wrong Direction Right Direction 26% 40% 38% 33% 34% 37% 41% Wrong Direction 47% 46% 46% 47% 47% 48% 46% Don't know Net -20% -14% -12% -11% -7% -8% -5% Q1) Thinking about the UK as a whole, do you believe the country is headed in the right direction, or seriously headed in the wrong direction? www.backboris2012.com 14% 15% 20% 19% 15% 12% 28% Definite Voters Total Likely Voters Soft Voters Inner London Outer London Inner Definite Outer Definite
London Right/Wrong Direction Right Direction 29% 37% 40% 46% 45% 46% 46% Wrong Direction 38% 37% 39% 38% 38% 39% 37% Don't know 16% 18% 15% 17% 25% 22% 32% Net -10% -1% 2% Q2) Thinking about London now, do you believe London is heading in the right or seriously headed in the wrong direction? 8% 8% 7% 9% www.backboris2012.com Definite Voters Total Likely Voters Soft Voters Inner London Outer London Inner Definite
2012: the London picture
Things that mattered Value for money Crime Transport Local environment Housing Olympic Legacy Cost of Living Standing up for London www.backboris2012.com
Q18) If the election for Mayor of London was held today, what is the most important issue that would determine who you would vote for? That issue can be to do with the candidates, local issues, national issues, or anything else that is important to you in determining your vote. Most important issue in determining vote
Candidates and Issues: Definite Voter Current Low influence on vote High influence on vote KL/Lab. Positioning Model Accuracy Good ~ Reversed negative statement ^ New statement BJ/Con Positioning www.backboris2012.com 14
Boris Johnson Base Swing Ken Livingstone Base Age 55+ 45 54 18 44 Social Class A, B, C1 C2 D, E Location Outer London Inner London Location Home Ownership North West; South West; Home Owner, Own with a mortgage Rent from someone else North East, South East Rent from council/ LA Ethnicity White South Asian; Black; Other Asian Religion Christian; Jewish No religion Muslim, Hindu Gender Male Female
Back Boris 2012: My 9 point plan for securing Greater London s future
The questions for 2012 What has he done? What will he do?
www.backboris2012.com
Communicating Boris s Record Produced 30 different localised versions of a newspaper Delivered to 1.8 million homes in priority wards www.backboris2012.com
Communicating Boris s Record Front and back pages www.backboris2012.com
Final #AskBoris Chat: reached 628,789 people trended 3 rd worldwide and 1 st in the UK By election day: 5,262 followers for @BackBoris2012, 300,000 followers for @MayorofLondon 140,000+ Facebook likes Weibo account for Chinese Brits Building online presence www.backboris2012.com
Localised content www.backboris2012.com
347 Priority Wards in 2012 www.backboris2012.com
Priority Wards 2012
Swing by ward 2.00% 1.00% 1.42% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.13% 1.25% 3.00% 4.00% All P Non P All wards www.backboris2012.com
Regulated Period The regulated period runs from the time of nomination to Polling Day a maximum of 44 days (20 March 2012) Spending limit is 420,000 Party Election Broadcast: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=lmonvlmkcb U www.backboris2012.com
2012 results Boris Johnson Ken Livingstone 1 st Preference Votes 971,931(44 %) 889,918 (40.3%) 1 st & 2 nd Preference Votes 1,054,811 (51.53%) 992,273 (48.47%) www.backboris2012.com
Why did we win?
1. Boris 2. Campaign team 3. Research 4. 9 point plan 5. Can t trust Ken 6. Visual presence Postal votes Electoral roll
Why did we win? The Boris factor
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0m9-d8dv7t4
Boris Johnson s Conservatism Traditional Conservative values interpreted through modern policies Urban, metropolitan Green Low tax Socially liberal OPTIMISTIC
Personalities not parties Boris v. Ken NOT Conservative v.labour Boris as own voice to national Party and Government, yet campaigned as Conservative Used independent campaign and research team, yet deployed party grassroots machinery Personally very popular, even after difficult Tory Budget Ken Livingstone as trade union candidate, not New Labour
The Heineken Tory Boris, "the Heineken Tory" who reaches parts of the electorate that other Conservatives don't Boris's appeal stretches beyond London and the core Tory vote A leader is a dealer in hope, said Napoleon. In these tough times Boris is the politician who provides most hope to London and, increasingly, to the grassroots of the Conservative Party." Avowedly Conservative with a big C and a small c Business leaders back Boris to drive recovery
Why did we win? Practical lessons
Differentiation Candidate v. Party Mayoral race v. general election London as international city v. New York RESEARCH
Boris v Ken Boris Forward Positive plans Ken Backwards Same old policies For all zones For Zone 1 Unifying Pragmatic action Champion for all Londoners Divisive All talk For his cronies
Discipline Year of record work 9 point plan All negative campaigning done by others than candidate
The Frame Choice between moving Greater London forwards with Boris or taking it backwards
The vision Optimistic for London s future despite difficult times
The result Centre right Conservative Mayor of a left Labour city