CONTEXT FOR PRESENTATION Making predictions about what Diversity and HR professionals will face over the next 12-48 months requires examining a few assumptions. First, the U.S. will have a new administration that we assume will be very business-friendly but not very people friendly. President Trump made campaign promises to invest trillions of dollars on infrastructure and military and cutting regulations, regulatory agencies, and existing laws (e.g., EPA, Labor, and the ACA Affordable Care Act) that he views as holding back business development. President Trump also promised to cut corporate taxes so that American companies will invest more in the United States. And, the president-elect s early cabinet nominees seem to reinforce that the new administration will be a business-friendly environment. The question remains as what impact this will have on workforce diversity efforts. As we enter 2017, there s also a lot of uncertainty about the details of delivering on those promises and how quickly they will be implemented. Cutting taxes and eliminating some regulations seems to be low-hanging fruit, and will be relatively easy to implement. However, changing and/or improving the ACA may be more difficult in the short term. Making large investments in infrastructure and military, even though it may be necessary, will be harder. The conservative Congress may be loath to approve deficit spending programs. Lower taxes mean less income and figuring out how to pay for this increased spending may be difficult, especially when there seems to be reluctance to address entitlements (e.g., Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid).
CONTEXT FOR PRESENTATION (CONTINUED) The mega-trends seem to point to a perceived business-friendly environment, but one that is fraught with uncertainty especially as it pertains to diversity initiatives in the corporate in the workplace. There probably won t be a recession, but companies will be cautious and not make investments in diversity initiatives until things seem less uncertain. As a result, the economy will probably continue to show meek growth, at least in the first half of 2017. This means that we will continue to have modest gains in job growth with around 200,000 new jobs created each month. Combine this with the fact that 300,000 people turn 65 every month and leave their jobs, means that the demand for diverse talent will continue as the economy will have around 500,000 new job openings every month. In addition, the supply of new talent will only be around 350,000 per month. In the next 5 years, there will be around six million job openings and only four million people to fill them. As a result, unemployment will remain low in the near future and there will be modest increases in wages, especially in highly skilled occupations that have severe talent shortages and/or aging workforces. This will put pressure on organizations to seek diverse talent during a period of transition and uncertainty. So the big question yet to be answered is based on the emerging mega-trends and because of the uncertainty in 2017, will we see companies to go into a massive war for talent or will many will hold off hiring full-time talent for open positions and instead look to tapping into the growing contingent and contract workforce? This answer will directly impact diversity efforts at most large companies. The mega-trends seem to point to most companies increasingly looking to investment in automation/technology to replace low and medium-wage positions (e.g., service and factory workers). Based on the uncertainty, it would be wise for companies to have strategic people plans that will help them move fast if the environment changes. They will need to shift on a dime, and will need Diversity and HR professionals to be increasingly agile in 2017 and beyond.
MEGA TRENDS AFFECTING ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE, DIVERSITY AND INCLUSION Dr. Shelton Goode, DPA Diversity Executive/Author/Speaker/College Professor
Today s Speaker Dr. Shelton J. Goode, DPA Global Diversity Executive, Author, College Professor Contact Cell: 770-550-3374 E-Mail sjgoode56@gmail.com Dr. Shelton J. Goode, DPA Author, Crisis As A Platform For Social Change From Strawberry Mansion To Silicon Valley www.crisisasaplatformforchange.com
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DEFINITION OF MEGATREND Trend that is occurring which is inevitable; trend that cannot be turned around. All society sectors affected: business, political, education, religious, law enforcement, non-profit, etc.
EXAMPLES OF MEGA TRENDS Click Here To Start Video of Play Button Fails. Examples of Mega Trends
MEGA TRENDS IMPACTING ALL AREAS OF SOCIETY Population shifts will mean a more dynamic voting public Workforce shifts will mean more varied educational needs Greater demand for additional worship options Increased variation in artistic interest Broader cultural interest
MEGA TRENDS WE WILL DISCUSS TODAY Generational Challenges Demographic Shifts Talent Shortage Education Decline Economic Divide Crime Disparity
WHY SHOULD WE CARE? How does these megatrends affect the country and community? How do these megatrends affect the company for whom I work? How do these mega trends affect me personally?
IMPLICATIONS FOR YOUR ORGANIZATION Policies Responses Procedures Visible Artifacts Behaviors Informal Practices Traces Vision/Mission, Goals, Strategies, Values Espoused Values Perceptions/Filters Undiscussables Unwritten Rules Unconscious Beliefs Underlying Assumptions Impacted by External Trends
TODAY S PURPOSE Provide an additional lens through which diversity can be viewed Provide tools for examining diversity dynamics and diagnosing underlying trends Share best practices for responding effectively to diversity trends and impacts Enhance ability to make quality decisions in the midst of major cultural and societal changes
DIVERSITY RESOURCES MISDIRECTED Need for all-inclusive organizations cut across all sectors of society (industry, education, government, etc.) Need for a community-wide dialogue on diversity issues that are impacting the strength, vitality and future of the community No mobilized infrastructure in place to address the changing demographics and rising tension and polarization Available resources (diversity education and consulting) primarily directed at corporate industry, leaving other sectors underserved Even resources directed at industry have limited impact due to the narrow focus on diversity numbers and diversity awards
Population Shifts
U.S. POPULATION SNAPSHOT U.S. Population 2000 U.S. Population 2010 U.S. Population 2020 (projected) African American / Black 12.7% 12.83% 12.97% Asian / Pacific Islander 3.8% 4.66% 8.12% American Indian / Native American / Alaskan Native Caucasian / Non Hispanic White.9% 1.01% 1.24%* 69.4% 68.65% 46.32% Hispanic / Latino(a) 12.6% 15.35% 30.25% TOTAL POPULATION: 282.1 million 304.1 million 439.0 million
NATIONAL DEMOGRAPHIC SNAPSHOT 42 million African-Americans represent 12.6% of the population. o White 72.4% o Latino 16.3% More than 57% of African-Americans reside in the South. Median Age: 32.6 (39.5 White) Male: 30.5 (38.3 White) Female: 34.4 (40.8 White) 84.1%- HS Diploma+ o 91.6% - White 19.3% - BA Degree+ o 32.9% - White Median HHI: $38,851 ($63,395 White) The Census Map above reveals that the highest concentration of Blacks are in the south; notably Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, HH Size: 3.35 people Source: Census Bureau 2016,
MORE DIVERSE BUT MORE SEGREGATED
U.S. POPULATION BY AGE Of the total U. S. population: > 65 years 12.4 percent 18-64 years 62.8 percent < 18 years 24.8 percent
U.S. POPULATION BY AGE, RACE, AND ETHNICITY The U. S. population median age: Total population 36.2 years White 40.3 years Hispanic/Latino 27.2 years African American 30.9 years Asian 34.5 years
PEOPLE ARE LIVING LONGER The number of centenarians in the US: 1990 37,000 2000 50,000 2008 80,000 2010 131,000 2020 214,000 2040 447,000 2050 834,000
AND LONGER The number of super-centenarians (110 years and older) in the U.S. is estimated to be 100 individuals in 2010. The chance of living to 100 is 1 in 4 thousand. The chance of living to 110 and beyond is 1 in 4 million.
STATE/REGION/LOCAL DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES The regional population share for Hispanics/Latinos and other ethnic groups will increase from roughly 18% today to 29% by 2040. The regional population share for Whites will decline from roughly 56% today to 36% by 2040. In 2005, roughly 8% of the region s population was age 65 and older. By 2040, 20% will be age 65 and older. Source: State Department of Economic Development Report, 2016
SO WHAT? The number of super-centenarians (110 years and older) in the U.S. is estimated to be 100 individuals in 2010. The chance of living to 100 is 1 in 4 thousand. The chance of living to 110 and beyond is 1 in 4 million.
Workforce Shifts
NATIONAL WORKFORCE CHANGES Women, minorities, and immigrants comprise 70% of new entrants into the workforce. 46.8% of the U.S. workforce is women. Millennials constitute a large segment of the population, outpacing Generation Xers by upwards of 30 million people.
4 GENERATIONS 1 WORK PLACE Veterans Boomers Gen Xes Millennials Population 75 million 80 million 46 million 76 million Birth Year 1900-1945 1946-1964 1965-1980 1981-1999 Note: Every day in the U. S., 50,000 Hispanic/Latinos turn 18 92% of this number is are voter eligible
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% U.S. WORKFORCE DEMOGRAPHICS Matures / Traditionalists Boomers Gen Xers Gen Yers / Millennials 10% 46% 29% 15%
WHO IS LEAVING THE WORKFORCE? Of the 146 million people working full time and part time in the U.S., 25 percent have reached age 50. By the end of 2010, 24 million Boomers will leave the active workplace primarily from executive management positions. Of workers 40 58 years old, 80 percent plan to work in retirement. Six in 10 look forward to the challenge of something new 69 percent of workers age 45 70 plan to work after 65 50 percent of workers age 45 70 plan to work after 70
TAKE THIS JOB AND.. Industries with greatest percentage of workers age 45 to 99 years. Utilities Mining Educational Public Administration Health care, Social Assistance Manufacturing 53 percent 52 percent 50 percent 48 percent 42 percent 42 percent
RACIAL AND ETHNICS DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS Year Total People % Hispanic American % African American % White American 2010 296 million 14% 13% 68% 2050 438 million 29% 13% 49% Note: Every day in the U. S., 50,000 Hispanic/Latinos turn 18 92% of this number is are voter eligible
GROWING MINORITY POPULATION.. The non-hispanic White population will increase more slowly than other racial and ethnic groups. By 2050 Whites will make up 47% of the nation, down from 68% in 2005 By 2023 half of all U.S. children will be People of Color (non-white) By 2025 the immigrant (or foreign-born) share of the population will surpass the peak during the last great wave of immigration a century ago
.. THAT IS ENTERING THE WORKFORCE The Latino population, already the nation's largest racial minority group, will triple in size and will account for most of the nation's population growth from 2005 through 2050. Hispanics will make up 29% of the U.S. population in 2050, compared with 14% in 2005. In 2050 nearly one in five Americans (19%) will be immigrants, compared with one in eight (12%) in 2005. POINT: Demographics have changed, and will continue to change. Adapt, learn to connect across cultures, or get left behind.
FAMILY DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS In 1950, male head of household with wife staying home represented 56 percent of the U. S. workforce. In 2000, this percentage was 21 percent. In 1967, 37 percent of married women were employed. By 2000, this percentage increased to 61 percent. In the U. S., 55 percent of families have a woman who earns more than 50 percent of the household income.
Education Trends
EDUCATION DECLINE There are 165 million students in grades 9 12: Of this enrollment, 33 percent graduate from high school, enroll in college and graduate with a minimum BS degree within 4 6 years. For the period 2011 2014, 5.4 million college graduates will enter the U. S. labor pool
EDUCATION CHALLENGES For the 39 million student enrolled in middle and high schools: 79 percent think having a job or profession they really like is an important part of a happy life. 70 percent think liking what they do is more important than money. 65 percent want to climb corporate ladder and get on or off as life needs change.
CORPORATIONS IN THE EDUCATION BUSINESS Fortune 1000 copies surveyed 79 percent agreed that a good company continually invests in employees. 78 percent agreed that a good company continually invests in the community. 77 percent agreed that a good company continually thinks about the environment.
BUSINESS IMPERATIVE Fortune 1000 copies surveyed.. 69 percent agreed that business talks about caring for people, but would put profits and money ahead of all else if push came to shove. 41 percent agreed that business considers the nonfinancial (people) impact of their decisions (34 percent disagreed, 24 percent did not know). 34 percent agreed that business should only care about making the greatest amount of profit for its owners (51 percent disagreed, 14 percent did not know).
Economic Divide
ECONOMIC DIVIDE In 1992, 66 percent of college-educated men wanted jobs with more responsibility. In 2002, this percentage dropped to 50 percent. In 1992, 56 percent of college-educated women wanted jobs with more responsibility. In 2002, this percentage dropped to 35 percent.
Talent Shortage
TALENT SHORTAGE Each year more than 2 million people voluntarily leave their employers as a result of perceived unfairness (unfair policies & practices, negative comments/jokes, perceived invisibility) This trend cost U.S. corporations $64 Billion annually. This amount is almost as much as the revenues of Goldman Sachs, Google, Amazon.com and Starbucks combined. POINT: Creating an inclusive environment reduces turnover and saves money.
Within next 10 years TALENT SHORTAGE 32 million jobs will be vacated (primarily from Baby Boomer retirements) & 20 million new jobs will be created BUT, available projected labor force will only be 29 million, leaving a 23 million personnel shortage POINT: The battle for talent will be immense. Organizations MUST create environments that are inclusive of ALL types of people if they plan to be viable.
TALENT SHORTAGE #1 U.S. Import Talent from oversees Currently, North America and Europe are expected collectively to produce only 3% of the world's entering labor force 75% of new workers will come from Asia As stated above, by 2025 the foreign-born population will surpass the peak during the last great wave of immigration a century ago POINT: Even if you don't plan to go global; globalization is coming to you!
Diversity Tensions
INCREASED DIVERSITY TENSIONS Diversity tension refers to the stress and strain that can accompany interactions between diversity mixtures. Diversity tension is a natural outgrowth of bringing together different people with similar and differing perspectives. Diversity tension is neither bad nor good, it simply is. Similarities and differences can be managed to achieve maximum benefit in support of organizational objectives.
INCREASED TENSIONS Demographic trends will increase diversity of race, ethnicity, Aging Boomers & Larger Millennial cohort Changing cultural norms diminish assimilation patterns Greater differences x Greater Willingness to be different = more diversity of perspectives and increased diversity tension
Crime Trends
CRIME IN ALL THE WRONG PLACES Between 2014 and 2016, college students ages 18-24 were victims of approximately 480,000 crimes of violence annually. Only 35 percent of acts of violence against students were reported to the police during 2014 and 2016. Based on available statistics, data indicates 57 percent of hate crimes on campus were motivated by race, 18 percent by anti-semitism, and 16 percent were based on sexual orientation.
CYBER BULLYING AND HARASSMENT Of teenagers who use the Web, 32 percent report having received threatening, harassing messages or ugly rumors spread about them online. Cyber bullying has increased by 3 times the amount of 3 years ago. Cyber threats have resulted in 13 percent of affected teens staying out of school due to fear.
HATE CRIMES More than 1/3 (36 percent) of lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) undergraduate students have experienced harassment within the past year. Twenty percent of faculty, staff and students surveyed feared for their physical safety because of their sexual orientation or gender identity.
Cultural Trends & Nuances
CHANGING BELIEFS Shifting societal norms accompanied by shifting attitudes and beliefs Melting Pot replaced by Multiculturalism Differences formerly melted into mainstream now held out as points of pride to be recognized and acknowledged
ATTITUDE SHIFTS Assimilation no longer assumed or readily accepted Results in more complex issues and increases challenge to engage all participants Miss Canada 2015 Miss Universe Pageant Transgender
The majority of Americans are bi-cultural, straddling two cultures theirs and that of the mainstream US society. Cross-culturalism is a mega-trend that will blur color lines in America. Americans interact with many cultures, but remain culturally segregated at the deepest most important levels. Source: Study: Cross-cultural Trends, February 24, 2016
Media Trends
MEDIA LANDSCAPE Media platforms are evolving and are integrated into people s total day. The average person chooses when, where and how they avail themselves to media. As early adopters, Millennials lead the way in consuming media. Millennials trust social medial more than twice as much as mainstream media. Source: U.S. Today, November 2016
TELEVISION Millennials are heavy consumers of television, viewing 14 more hours each Views on Diversity are shaped by television dramas, advertising shows, reality television programs, and sporting events. Source: Nielsen Media Research: the State of the African American Consumer September 2016; Target Market News Top 25 Cable and Network Shows in Black Households, Aug 6-12
OPPORTUNITIES FOR HR AND DIVERSITY PROFESSIONALS Need for all-inclusive organizations cut across all sectors of society (industry, education, government, etc.) Need for a community-wide dialogue on diversity issues that are impacting the strength, vitality and future of companies, communities and the country No mobilized infrastructure in place to address the changing demographics and rising tension and polarization Available resources (diversity education and consulting)
OPPORTUNITIES FOR HR AND DIVERSITY PROFESSIONALS Continue to recognize the importance of the African- American segment, since they outspend the general market in the utility category. Participate in more community-based events (especially in outer markets). Because African-Americans are heavy consumers of media, it is important to engage the target in innovative and relevant ways. Recognize importance of cultural nuances in all marketing materials. 31
RESOURCES FOR MORE INFORMATION
Speaker Dr. Shelton J. Goode, DPA Global Diversity Executive Contact Cell: 770-550-3374 E-Mail sjgoode56@gmail.com Dr. Shelton J. Goode, DPA Author, Crisis As A Platform For Social Change From Strawberry Mansion To Silicon Valley www.crisisasaplatformforchange.com
ABOUT OSHKOSH CORPORATION
MEGA TRENDS AFFECTING ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE, DIVERSITY AND INCLUSION APRIL 6, 2017 Dr. Shelton Goode, DPA Diversity Executive/Author/Speaker/College Professor