Arizona Polling Executive Summary Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870 Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 882 registered, likely voters in Arizona. The poll was conducted from September 5 th through the 7 th, with a margin of error of ±3.3%. The totals may not round to 100% because of rounding. The survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. The results are weighted by voting demographics. The poll was paid for by Gravis Marketing. 3) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of President Trump s job performance? Q3: TRUMPPERFORMANCE Somewhat Approve 6.1% 7.0% 16.4% 20.5% 7.8% 9.4% 7.4% 14.7% 5.5% Somewhat Disapprove 6.1% 5.8% 3.8% 6.8% 7.6% 4.2% 2.6% 7.2% 3.0% Strongly Approve 9.8% 26.9% 63.5% 16.3% 36.2% 36.5% 43.3% 26.2% 44.0% Strongly Disapprove 73.0% 57.8% 14.7% 49.3% 47.5% 46.0% 44.9% 47.9% 45.4% Uncertain 5.0% 2.6% 1.5% 7.0% 0.9% 3.8% 1.8% 3.9% 2.0% 1
4) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of Senator Flake s job performance? Q4: FLAKEPERFORMANCE Somewhat Approve 26.8% 18.9% 27.2% 29.7% 20.4% 25.9% 24.0% 29.7% 19.0% Somewhat Disapprove 22.5% 19.2% 12.0% 20.0% 15.4% 16.0% 20.3% 17.2% 18.0% Strongly Approve 25.4% 14.0% 9.2% 2.2% 22.0% 16.7% 16.6% 15.1% 16.6% Strongly Disapprove 15.0% 27.9% 41.3% 17.6% 28.3% 31.5% 33.0% 21.0% 36.8% Uncertain 10.3% 20.1% 10.3% 30.5% 13.9% 10.0% 6.0% 17.0% 9.6% 5) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of Governor Ducey s job performance? 2
Q5: DUCEYPERFORMANCE Somewhat Approve 21.0% 31.9% 38.9% 29.2% 34.3% 30.2% 29.6% 29.5% 32.5% Somewhat Disapprove 23.3% 20.0% 11.8% 28.0% 19.7% 15.8% 12.6% 19.1% 16.9% Strongly Approve 12.9% 13.0% 34.1% 14.3% 15.9% 21.6% 29.0% 20.0% 21.5% Strongly Disapprove 39.2% 31.2% 7.4% 21.7% 23.6% 26.9% 26.1% 24.0% 26.0% Uncertain 3.6% 4.0% 7.8% 6.7% 6.6% 5.5% 2.7% 7.4% 3.1% 6) If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Doug Ducey and Democrat David Garcia, who would you vote for? Q6: DUCEYVSGARCIA Democrat David Garcia 73.7% 52.3% 10.2% 46.8% 41.9% 46.9% 39.5% 43.7% 43.5% Republican Doug Ducey 18.4% 37.8% 81.9% 39.9% 47.4% 47.1% 54.3% 47.1% 48.7% Uncertain 7.9% 9.9% 7.9% 13.3% 10.7% 6.0% 6.2% 9.2% 7.8% 3
7) If the election for Governor were held today and you had to make a decision, which candidate are you leaning towards? Q7: DUCEYVSGARCIA2 92.1% 90.1% 92.1% 86.7% 89.3% 94.0% 93.8% 90.8% 92.2% Democrat David Garcia 2.9% 0.1% 1.1% 4.2% 1.1% 0.1% 1.3% 2.2% 0.5% Republican Doug Ducey 0.0% 3.3% 2.2% 0.0% 4.1% 1.9% 0.4% 1.2% 2.5% Uncertain 5.0% 6.5% 4.6% 9.0% 5.4% 4.0% 4.5% 5.9% 4.8% 8) If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Democrat Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Martha McSally, who would you vote for? 4
Q8: SINEMAVSMCSALLY Democrat Kyrsten Sinema 81.8% 54.0% 13.4% 47.9% 42.0% 52.4% 48.9% 46.7% 49.0% Republican Martha McSally 14.0% 41.9% 85.6% 44.8% 58.0% 42.7% 49.8% 49.5% 48.8% Uncertain 4.2% 4.0% 1.1% 7.3% 0.0% 5.0% 1.3% 3.8% 2.1% 9) If the election for Senate were held today and you had to make a decision, which candidate are you leaning towards? Q9: SINEMAVSMCSALLY2 95.8% 96.0% 98.9% 92.7% 100.0% 95.0% 98.7% 96.2% 97.9% Democrat Kyrsten Sinema 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% Republican Martha McSally 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% Uncertain 2.1% 3.2% 0.8% 1.5% 0.0% 4.6% 1.3% 1.8% 2.1% 5
10) If the election for Secretary of State were held today and the candidates were Republican Steve Gaynor and Democrat Katie Hobbs, who would you vote for? Q10: GAYNORVSHOBBS Democrat Katie Hobbs 73.1% 39.9% 11.8% 29.0% 40.2% 45.1% 41.1% 38.2% 42.1% Republican Steve Gaynor 15.5% 32.6% 80.0% 37.8% 47.8% 40.7% 50.2% 45.4% 43.9% Uncertain 11.3% 27.5% 8.2% 33.2% 11.9% 14.2% 8.7% 16.3% 14.0% 11) If the election for State Treasurer were held today and the candidates were Democrat Mark Manoil and Republican Kimberly Yee, who would you vote for? 6
Q11: MANOILVSYEE Democrat Mark Manoil 71.7% 39.8% 7.8% 31.7% 37.9% 44.5% 35.1% 38.4% 37.9% Republican Kimberly Yee 19.6% 35.9% 84.2% 50.3% 49.0% 43.8% 52.4% 46.2% 50.9% Uncertain 8.7% 24.3% 8.1% 17.9% 13.1% 11.7% 12.6% 15.4% 11.1% 12) Would you be more or less likely support a candidate for Congress if you knew they would support Nancy Pelosi to be Speaker of the House? Q12: SUPPORTPELOSI Less Likely 26.1% 44.6% 72.5% 43.2% 53.3% 42.8% 54.9% 43.8% 54.4% More Likely 40.7% 11.8% 7.4% 13.6% 17.2% 22.9% 21.3% 20.1% 18.7% Uncertain 33.2% 43.7% 20.1% 43.2% 29.4% 34.3% 23.8% 36.1% 26.9% 7
13) Would you more or less likely support a candidate for Congress if you knew they would vote to impeach President Donald J. Trump? Q13: IMPEACHTRUMP Less Likely 12.6% 29.5% 77.0% 37.4% 40.1% 39.2% 48.7% 42.0% 41.3% More Likely 74.1% 45.6% 12.6% 46.4% 39.2% 45.7% 40.0% 40.3% 44.8% Uncertain 13.3% 24.9% 10.4% 16.2% 20.7% 15.0% 11.3% 17.7% 13.9% 14) Do you currently approve or disapprove of the Tax Reform Bill that was signed into law recently? 8
Q14: TAXREFORMAPPROVAL Approve 12.4% 28.0% 61.1% 16.6% 37.1% 37.6% 41.9% 29.3% 41.4% Disapprove 68.2% 38.4% 12.7% 40.7% 31.6% 45.1% 36.5% 36.2% 40.7% Uncertain 19.4% 33.6% 26.3% 42.7% 31.3% 17.2% 21.6% 34.5% 17.9% 15) Do you support or oppose the legalization of same-sex marriage in the United States? Q15: SAMESEXMARRIAGE Oppose 12.6% 23.8% 48.9% 5.4% 23.5% 38.6% 40.4% 24.9% 34.4% Support 78.1% 58.1% 34.4% 88.0% 54.7% 52.1% 41.2% 63.0% 48.2% Uncertain 9.3% 18.1% 16.7% 6.6% 21.8% 9.3% 18.4% 12.2% 17.4% 16) Do you support or oppose a ban on the ability to obtain an abortion in Arizona? 9
Q16: ABORTION Oppose 55.5% 49.1% 44.9% 51.1% 58.7% 43.3% 46.1% 50.5% 48.6% Support 33.7% 23.8% 37.5% 27.7% 26.1% 37.4% 35.0% 30.5% 33.7% Uncertain 10.8% 27.2% 17.5% 21.2% 15.2% 19.4% 18.9% 19.1% 17.7% 17) Do you support or oppose a ban on the ability to obtain an abortion after a pregnancy has lasted for 20 weeks in Arizona? Q17: 20WEEKABORTION Oppose 44.3% 50.9% 36.3% 40.5% 40.4% 44.0% 47.7% 42.4% 44.4% Support 36.3% 29.1% 47.4% 45.5% 43.5% 37.5% 28.7% 41.0% 35.3% Uncertain 19.4% 20.0% 16.3% 14.0% 16.1% 18.5% 23.6% 16.7% 20.3% 18) Do you support or oppose laws that would stop LGBTQ individuals from being discriminated against in regards to employment, housing, and healthcare in Arizona? 10
Q18: LGBTQDISCRIMINATION Oppose 20.7% 20.7% 27.0% 14.7% 24.8% 24.5% 24.6% 20.4% 25.8% Support 64.2% 53.2% 41.6% 67.3% 50.6% 48.8% 49.6% 56.3% 48.5% Uncertain 15.0% 26.1% 31.4% 18.0% 24.6% 26.7% 25.9% 23.4% 25.7% 19) Do you support or oppose President Trump s actions regarding removing the United States from the Iranian Nuclear Agreement? Q19: IRANNUCLEAR Oppose 65.8% 54.0% 19.4% 43.1% 46.3% 48.2% 41.0% 42.8% 47.2% Support 10.8% 26.3% 67.5% 18.0% 36.9% 35.6% 48.9% 29.1% 44.4% Uncertain 23.4% 19.7% 13.1% 38.9% 16.7% 16.3% 10.2% 28.1% 8.4% 20) As you may know there is an investigation into possible dealings with President Trump s associates and Russia being led by Special Counsel Robert Mueller. Do you believe the investigation is justified or do you believe it is politically motivated? 11
Q20: RUSSIA Justified 75.8% 52.6% 15.8% 29.9% 52.1% 48.8% 47.7% 46.7% 46.1% Politically motivated 12.4% 35.1% 77.9% 40.3% 42.5% 40.9% 50.1% 40.1% 47.4% Uncertain 11.8% 12.3% 6.3% 29.9% 5.4% 10.2% 2.2% 13.2% 6.6% 21) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of Special Counsel Robert Mueller s job performance? Q21: MUELLERPERFORMANCE Somewhat Approve 17.4% 14.6% 11.9% 34.3% 14.6% 10.8% 6.5% 17.1% 11.8% Somewhat Disapprove 6.8% 4.3% 9.4% 8.1% 7.8% 3.6% 9.3% 9.2% 4.7% Strongly Approve 58.0% 42.1% 10.8% 5.7% 35.0% 46.1% 42.4% 30.4% 41.0% Strongly Disapprove 8.8% 16.5% 50.8% 5.5% 27.8% 29.2% 35.7% 19.1% 34.6% Uncertain 9.0% 22.5% 17.2% 46.3% 14.7% 10.4% 6.1% 24.2% 7.9% 12
22) Would you approve or disapprove of a border wall built between the border of Mexico and the U.S.? Q22: BORDERWALL Approve 20.5% 35.2% 74.7% 29.4% 47.5% 46.6% 50.4% 42.5% 47.8% Disapprove 75.3% 57.8% 15.3% 56.4% 48.0% 46.2% 43.8% 47.1% 48.3% Uncertain 4.2% 7.0% 10.0% 14.2% 4.5% 7.2% 5.8% 10.4% 3.9% 23) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the Mainstream Media s job performance? 13
Q23: MEDIAPERFORMANCE Somewhat Approve 23.6% 22.7% 13.3% 22.0% 18.8% 18.8% 19.6% 18.5% 20.6% Somewhat Disapprove 7.9% 15.4% 12.5% 22.1% 16.2% 6.1% 7.8% 17.3% 6.3% Strongly Approve 45.0% 23.7% 9.2% 7.8% 22.5% 33.6% 28.9% 23.1% 27.3% Strongly Disapprove 14.9% 30.4% 60.1% 33.4% 36.1% 35.2% 40.1% 31.4% 41.7% Uncertain 8.7% 7.7% 4.9% 14.7% 6.5% 6.3% 3.7% 9.7% 4.2% 24) Do you believe the U.S. Senate should consider President Trump s nominee, Brett Kavanaugh to fill the vacancy of Justice Kennedy, who is retiring? Q24: SENTATEJUSTICE No 66.9% 40.1% 12.7% 49.4% 34.9% 40.5% 33.6% 37.8% 39.3% Uncertain 16.4% 20.1% 10.3% 29.6% 15.5% 10.2% 12.1% 23.1% 7.1% Yes 16.6% 39.8% 77.0% 21.1% 49.6% 49.4% 54.2% 39.1% 53.5% 14
25) Are you more or less likely to support a candidate for U.S. Senate who will confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court? Q25: KAVANAUGHCANDIDATE Less Likely 68.0% 37.8% 12.7% 38.6% 39.3% 38.8% 36.1% 35.1% 41.4% More Likely 12.3% 27.7% 73.3% 24.9% 35.1% 43.4% 49.2% 31.0% 48.7% Uncertain 19.7% 34.5% 14.0% 36.5% 25.6% 17.8% 14.7% 34.0% 9.9% 26) Do you think that Brett Kavanaugh is qualified to be a justice on the U.S. Supreme Court? Q26: KAVANAUGHQUALIFIED No 53.5% 28.9% 6.1% 28.6% 26.4% 31.4% 26.9% 26.1% 30.7% Uncertain 24.0% 32.8% 14.2% 42.8% 28.2% 16.8% 12.9% 32.6% 13.3% Yes 22.5% 38.2% 79.6% 28.6% 45.4% 51.9% 60.2% 41.3% 56.0% 15
27) Do you support or oppose President Trump s decision in revoking former CIA-Director John Brennan s security clearance? Q27: BRENNANCLEARANCE Oppose 70.4% 58.9% 13.2% 39.5% 48.0% 47.7% 44.6% 41.4% 50.1% Support 9.6% 29.3% 72.1% 26.4% 43.6% 37.4% 43.1% 34.1% 43.8% Uncertain 20.0% 11.8% 14.6% 34.1% 8.4% 14.9% 12.3% 24.6% 6.0% The following questions are for demographic purposes: 1) Are you registered to vote in Arizona? 16
2) How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Arizona General Election in November? 28) What is your party affiliation? 29) What is your political ideology? 17
30) Are you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic or Spanish speaking background? 31) What race do you identify yourself as? 32) Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation? 18
33) What is the highest level of education have you completed? 34) How old are you? 35) What is your gender? 19