Elçin ONAT TUSAM, National Security Strategies Research Center, Balkan Studies The developments in the island following the Cyprus Peace Operation indicate that the claim of "insolvability is not a solution" has lost its credibility. The European Union (EU) countries as the promoters of this elaim support a solution related to the foundation of a federal structure with two communities, two regions and based on political equality of the sides in the island. However, as the realization of such a solution gets more difficult day by day and the insolvability continues by increasing its intensity, it apparently emerges that the EU's success in making efficient policies in Cyprus dispute has been very limited on the contrary to the expectations from it. So, in order to understand the factors that lie under the EU's incapability in bringing permanent solutions to the dispute, the priority should be given to the EU policies related to the issue and its relations with the sides in the process beginning from the Union's involvement in the dispute till today. The European Union's Policies: Cyprus Dispute in the Blind Alley The involvement of the EU to Cyprus dispute cam e into agenda following the application of Greek Cypriots for the EU membership in the name of the whole island in July 1990 and the deelaration of the Union stating that the negotiations would start as soon as the prospect of a settlement is surer. Because the EU was in a construction period in the post-cold War era, the unwillingness of the EU towards dealing with a problematic region like Cyprus had become influential in reaching that decision. So, in 1990-94, the EU established a linkage between the Cyprus's EU membership and settlement of the dispute. However, the EU changed its attitude about the Cyprus issue following the Corfu Summit in June 1994. At the Summit, the European Council has for the first time declared that Cyprus would be involved in the next phase of enlargement without making the settlement of Cyprus dispute a precondition for the start of negotiations. Especially two factors played a role in the changing views of the Union about Cyprus issue. First, in that period Greece put forward its veto as a threat to the Central and Eastem European countries enlargement if the Greek Cypriots were not accepted to the Union. Second, according to a deal, Greece would lift its veto on Turkey's accession to Customs Union and in exchange for that the EU would start the accession talks with the Greek Cypriots. AIso, at that time the newly established Simitis rule in Athens was drawing a pro-european picture while the reform process in Turkey slowed down. So, at Luxembourg Summit in December 1997, while Turkey was not given a candidate country 1 / 7
status, Turkey' s support for a settlement in the island was mentioned as a condition for strengthening Turkey's links with the EU and the access ion negotiations with Cyprus started on March 30, 1998. So, in 1994-1999 the EU drew a pro-greek Cypriot picture. As the Europeans became pro-greek Cypriots, Greek Cypriots began to show their nationalistic attitudes more. AIso, the link between Turkey's relations with the EU and Cyprus dispute became apparent in that period. The Helsinki Summit on December 11, 1999 was a turning point in EU-Cyprus relations. In Helsinki, Turkey was given a candidate country status because the EU wanted Turkey to put pressure on Turkish Cypriots to reach a settlement with Greek Cypriots and not to take negative reactions of Turkey about accession of the divided Cyprus. This objective of the EU became apparent with another decision in Helsinki. In this decision, it was put forward that if Turkey did not take steps towards a settlement of the Cyprus issue, the European Council would decide for the accession of the Greek Cypriot Community without waiting the settlement of the problem in the way Turkey wanted. Following the Helsinki Summit, the EU made it clear that Turkey's EU membership can be possible on the event that Cyprus dispute is solved. As the EU also declared in Copenhagen Summit on December 16, 2002, in case of a settlement, the Council shall decide upon the accession of Cyprus to the EU with regard to the Turkish Cypriot community, however, in the absence of a settlement, the accession of the northem part of the island to the Union shall be suspended. The most comprehensive attempt to resolve the conflict was the Annan Plan that was presented by United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan on November 11, 2002. The Plan which proposed the establishment of the United Cyprus Republic by bringing the island's two communities into a loose cenfederation of two equal constituent states was welcomed by the EU due to its achievement in meeting the demands of the sides. In a referendum held in the island on April 24, 2004, %76 of the Greek Cypriots rejected while %65 of the Turkish Cypriots approved Annan's unity plan. Two days after the referendum, the Council adopted the Financial Aid Regulation and Direct Trade Regulation in order to put an end to the isolation of Turkish Cypriot community. On the other hand, on May 1, 2004, the Greek Cypriot-controlled 'Republic of Cyprus' became a full member of the EU. That meant that while officially the whole of Cyprus entered the EU, the de facto EU border runs along the green line dividing the country between Greeks and Turks. In July 2005, as an obligation of the EU membership process, Turkey signed a protocol extending 1963 Ankara agreement to the EU-10 states -which include Greek Cypriot state- issuing a declaration saying that its signature did not mean its recognition of the Republic of Cyprus. 2 / 7
On February 24, 2006 the EU approved the Financial Aid Regulation for the Turkish Cypriot Community by separating it from the Direct Trade Regulation despite the rejections of the Turkish side. On June 23, 2006, the EU decided to set up a North Cyprus Contact Group in North Cyprus in order to develop relations. On June 26, 2006 the EU took a decision to release 139 million euros of EU aid to the Turkish Cypriot community. The reactions drawn from international community and Turkish side against the Union's unwillingness for not implementing its commitments although Annan Plan was approved by Turkish Cypriots played a significant role in reaching this surprising decision. That aid was planned as 259 million euros before, however, 120 million euro which lost its validity because the Regulation could not been approved until the end of 2005 was later taken to the additional budget as a result of the attempts of Turkish side. The Commission continuously urges Turkey to recognize the Republic of Cyprus and open its ports and airports to traftic from there. Also, the Union wants Turkey to pull back its forces in northern Cyprus on the grounds that these forces occupy the territories of an EU member country. So, how do the sides perceive the EU's involvement in the dispute within the framework of these Union policies which lead the solution of the Cyprus dispute to a blind alley? The European Union in the Middle of Interests The Turkish Cypriots view the EU as a source of salvation from their economic and political isolation especially as an award in expense for their yes votes to the Annan Plan. They mostly support the bicommunal and bi-regional federation model of the EU. However, as the inability of the EU in bringing a solution to Cyprus becomes increasingly apparent, the support of Turkish Cypriots for the Union seems to decline. Arecent survey revealed that % 61 of the Greek Cypriots and % 51 of Turkish Cypriots trust in the EU. In Turkey, the Cyprus issue has settled to the core of the discussions about the advantages and disadvantages of the EU membership. Turkey sees the EU membership as a histarical objective that has to be achieved and puts it to the first ranks of its foreign policy. However, Turkey 3 / 7
determines the demands of the EU from Turkey about recognizing the Republic of Cyprus, opening its ports and airports to Greek Cypriots and pulling back its forces from Northern Cyprus as its red lines. As a result of the insufticient attempts of the Union towards Cyprus dispute and Turkey s membership, Turkish people has a credibility problem about the Union in increasing rates. The trust of the Turkish people to the EU has declined from almost % 55 to % 45 in recent years. The Greek Cypriots see the EU bership as a guarantee of security fe against 40.000 Turkish troops settled in the Northern part of the island and as a source of democratic acquisition and economic development. They continuously carry Cyprus dispute to the EU platform in order to gain advantages against Turkish Cypriots and Turkey by utilizing from their weaknesses related to their integration with the EU. As a result of this policy, they tend to harden their negotiation positions and hold the veto card against Turkey's EU membership and the economic aid for Turkish Cypriots under the EU framework. Also, due to the Presidential election that will be held in Southern Cyprus in 2008, it will be appropriate to wait from Papadopulos to maintain his hard position by forward more his attitude which is reaching a compromise with Turkish order to increase his votes. Because indeed the Greek Cypriots do not support the reunification proposal of the EU behind their symbolic support towards the EU a attempts. While Greece seemed as an obstacle for Turkey's EU road during the 1980s and early 1990s, in recent years Greece has begun to seem as a supporter of the improvement of Turkey-EU relations as a result of its EU interests. Under that policy, Greece aims to prevent Turkey from a military options or threats in vulnerable issues among them by supporting Turkey s democratization process. On the other hand, Greece still continues to handle the trump of playing the veto card against Turkey's EU membership in order to get concessions from Turkey in problematic issues like Cyprus. At that point, the EU's involvement in Cyprus dispute emerges as a significant opportunity for Greece as well as Greek Cypriots. Thus, the perceptions of the sides about the EU in Cyprus dispute reveal that their interests intersect at issue of integration with the EU and their attitudes towards the dispute are mostly shaped by these interests. However, the EU can not transform these expectations of the sides from the Union and their attitudes towards the Union to policies that will bring a permanent solution. So, what are the factors that lie under this failure of the EU? The Cyprus Defeat of the European Union 4 / 7
The current picture of Cyprus emerges as the most apparent indicator of the limitations of the EU's attempts in bringing a solution to the island. It can be mentioned about the basic reasons of why the EU has failed. First, it can be claimed that the EU's adoption of the application of the Greek Cypriots to the Union was not legitimate in the fact that de facto Greek government did not represent the Republic of Cyprus. Second, it can not be said that the EU completely made impartial eftorts in solving the dispute. While the settlement has been a precondition for Turkish side, the accession of Cyprus to the EU before solving the Cyprus problem has put a big obstacle in front of reaching a compromise. The EU has seen enlargement as an impetus for peace in the island, however, following the accession of Greek Cypriots to the EU on May 1, 2004, Greek Cypriots have gained the opportunity to direct the problem towards the way they want by playing the veto card against Turkey's EU membership. In addition to that, the EU drew a pro-greek picture in order to prevent a potential Greek veto against the EU accession process of Central and Eastem European Countries. AIso, despite the rejections of Turkey and Turkish Cypriot community, the EU separated the Financial Aid Regulatior from the Direct Trade Regulation througt the demands of Greek Cypriots. The Greek side opposes the Direct Trade Regulatior due to the fact that it will lead to the abo lishment of the embargo over the Turkish Cypriot Community. Third, the EU suffers from credibility crisis in the eyes of Turkish Cypriots. Although the EU had continuously declared its preference about the accession of the united Cyprus to the Union, the accession of only the Greek Cypriots to the Union became the most significant factor that undermined the trust of Turkish Cypriots to the EU. AIso, the EU did not respond positively to the recognition demands of the Turkist Cypriots and has been too Iate in providing economic assistance to the Turkish Cypriot Community despite the Turkish Cypriots approval of the Annan Plan. Late economic relations between the EU and Turkish Cypriot Community have delayed their salvation from economic isolation and backwardness. This has led to the widening of the gap between two communities in the island in favour of the Greek Cypriots and increasing the dependence of the Turkish Cypriots on Turkey. The fourth one is the EU's wrong assumption that the Greek Cypriots will also soften their negotiating positions as well as the Turkish Cypriots. However the EU membership makes Greeks secure in both economic and political terms. So, why do the Greek Cypriots feel themselves forced to give concessions to Turkish Cypriots? Why the Greek Cypriots share their internationally recognized territories with Turkish Cypriots? The fifth one is the EU's wrong conviction that Turkey would give support to all EU eftorts in Cyprus dispute in order to guarantee its EU membership process. However, Turkey's freezing 5 / 7
relations with the EU after Luxembourg Summit in 1997 in order to protest the Union's decision against Turkey and definitely rejecting to pull its forces in northern Cyprus back and open its ports and air spaces to Greek Cypriots undermine this assumption of the EU. Sixth, the EU has not resorted to eftective policy methods incontributing to the settlement of the dispute. The EU has resorted to temporary policies like giving rewards to the sides or putting embargoes instead of seeking for methods of compromise between the sides. It did not make credible policies especially about Turkey's EU membership. However, the complexity and multi-polarity of the dispute require more comprehensive approach to the issue. Finally, while the EU declares its support to the UN-Ied settlement eftorts, the two organizations' approaches to the dispute are said to be difterent in terms of their methods. While the UN eftorts argue that all parties involved in the dispute have to be under the same level of pressure, the EU seems to support the idea that pressure should be made on Turks to encourage Turkish Cypriots for reaching a compromise with Greek Cypriots. As a result of that picture, it will not be wrong to claim that the promoters of the assumption of "insolvability is not a solution" could not bring anything else except insolvability to the island. In an interview, Andrew Duff's, a member of the European Parliament, statement indicating that "the accession of the Cyprus to the EU was a great mistake. On contrary, the EU membership of Cyprus made the solution more difticult. Papadopulos should be forced to contribute to the integrity of the island. He should also show the generosity and eftort that Talat has shown for the solution of the dispute. The Greek Cypriots are not eager about reaching a solution." is like a confession that undermines the EU's own policies. On the other hand, there are some views claiming that the EU's attempts play a significant role towards a permanent solution in the island by changing the ideas or behaviors of the sides. However, the so-called role of the EU does not come from high capabilities or efticient policies of the Union in Cyprus problem. If it can be claimed that the EU has played a positive role to some extent in the problem, this comes from the desire and interests of the sides involved in the dispute at integrating with the EU. The EU has tried to utilize from these weak points of the sides in its eftorts for solving the dispute. So, the EU plays the role of attracting the sides' interests and through these interests the sides' attitudes and perceptions towards Cyprus issue have shown some changes. At that point, the linkage between the EU membership of the sides and settlement of Cyprus dispute makes the importance of the EU decisions in shaping the Cyprus dispute more apparent. 6 / 7
The Cyprus issue is a complex dispute with several sides involved and in which strict nationalistic emotions of the communities are in subject. Probably, the failure of the EU mainly comes from this complexity of the dispute. So, the EU should approach to the issue in a more comprehensive way and produce flexible and efticient solutions. Otherwise, as the desire of the sides at integrating with the EU decreases as a result of the credibility crisis, the role of the EU in Cyprus dispute will tend to lose its meaning. Only in this way, the negotiations between the sides will be able to bring sustainable solutions to the dispute rather than remaining in a symbolic meaning. 7 / 7