Too Much Hillary News THIRD PARTY CHANCES LIMITED

FOR RELEASE: THURSDAY, JULY 22, 1999, 4:00 P.M. Too Much Hillary News THIRD PARTY CHANCES LIMITED w w w w w w Also Inside... The Voters Agenda Medicare Reforms Worry Seniors Term Limit Reversal and Guns Matter Impeachment Anger Eases Bush War Chest Not an Issue Much More E-Mail FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Andrew Kohut, Director Kim Parker, Research Director Molly Sonner & Greg Flemming, Survey Directors Scott Nolde & Pam Hunter, Survey Analysts Beth Donovan, Editor Pew Research Center for The People & The Press 202/293-3126 http://www.people-press.org

Too Much Hillary News THIRD PARTY CHANCES LIMITED The prospects for a third party presidential candidate appear dim. Americans are reasonably satisfied with the existing field of candidates for the 2000 presidential election, and overwhelming numbers say they would not consider voting for outsiders Jesse Ventura or Ross Perot. Three-in-four people say they would be satisfied with a contest between Texas Governor George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore, both still well ahead of the competition for their party nominations. Dissatisfaction with the field of major party candidates (35%) is comparable to September 1996. This is nowhere near the June 1992 level, when support for an independent candidacy ran very high (61%). Judging the Field June July Satisfaction with 1992 1999 Candidates... % % Very Satisfied 6 11 Fairly Satisfied 31 42 Not Satisfied 61 35 Don't know 2 12 Two-in-three voters who have heard of Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura say they would not consider voting for him. A comparable number rule out a ballot for two-time third party presidential contender Ross Perot. Far fewer people know of former Connecticut Governor Lowell Weicker, and two-thirds of them say there is no chance they would vote for him. Voters see a Republican-Democrat match-up between Bush and Gore as a substantive choice, with a plurality saying that the two take different positions on the issues. At the same time, no single issue jumps to the top of the public s agenda to drive a third party bid. The top issues voters want the candidates to talk about are health care, Social Security and Medicare, though none is volunteered by even one-in-five people. In a general election test, Bush continues to lead Gore by 53% to 42%, numbers virtually unchanged over four Pew Research Center surveys dating back to September 1998. Bush has a sizable four-to-one lead over Elizabeth Dole, his nearest competitor for the Republican nomination, and Gore holds a two-to-one lead over his only challenger, Bill Bradley. Two-thirds of voters (65%) say that a candidate s ability to raise money is not a good measure of his or her ability to get things done. Not surprisingly, then, awareness of Bush s fund raising prowess has no impact on his standing with voters. Bush runs equally well among voters who are aware that he has raised significantly more money than other candidates as he does among those unaware of this.

The new Pew Research Center telephone survey conducted July 13-18, 1999 also finds that while just 15% of Americans are paying very close attention to election news, a solid six-in-ten majority says the media is paying about the right amount of attention to the 2000 presidential campaign. By contrast, 40% say the media is paying too much attention to first lady Hillary Clinton s possible Senate campaign. The survey also finds President Clinton s approval rating up a few points to 58%. The Voters Agenda The public appears ready to extend the congressional debate concerning the regulation of health maintenance organizations (HMOs) to the presidential campaign. When asked to name the one issue they most want to hear the presidential candidates discuss, nearly one-in-five people mention issues related to health care. An additional 14% cite Social Security; one-in-ten name Medicare. Americans interest in Social Security and Medicare is new to their 2000 campaign agenda. Onein-five now mention an interest in hearing presidential candidates speak about one of these entitlement programs, which were absent in earlier years. Also new to the campaign agenda is gun control, now listed by 7% of the public but previously unnamed. Issues for the Presidential Candidates to Discuss Oct Oct Sept July 1991 1995 1996 1999 % % % % Health care/health care regulation 8 20 14 18 Social Security - - - 14 Medicare - - - 11 Education/Education reform 11 6 11 9 Cutting taxes/taxes 6 8 16 9 Budget/Debt/Surplus 8 14 10 8 Crime/Drugs 5 9 6 7 Gun control - - - 7 Foreign Policy - 5 4 6 The moral crisis in this country - 8 5 6 The economy 43 14 13 4 Welfare reform - 8 12 2 Gone from the public s topof-the-mind concerns are the economy and welfare reform. Only 4% of the public wants to hear candidates talk about the economy, down from 13% who said so in 1996 and 43% who named economic issues in 1991. Similarly, only 2% of the public now says they are interested in hearing candidates speak about welfare reform, a drop from 12% who said so in 1996. Americans are also less interested in hearing candidates talk about cutting taxes than they were three years ago. Just 9% name taxes as an issue they d like to hear about, compared to 16% who said so in 1996. 2

Priorities Although violent crime is at its lowest point since 1973 and fewer than one-in-ten Americans mention it as an issue candidates should discuss, 76% of the public still considers reducing crime to be a top national priority, when asked to rate a list of issues. Improving education and shoring up Medicare and Social Security are close behind, with almost equal numbers placing these issues at the top of their list of national priorities. 1 Smaller but still substantial majorities of Americans place top priority on other issues ranging from social justice to taxes. Roughly six-in-ten say that dealing with the problems of the poor and addressing the concerns of families with children should be top priorities. The same number place protecting the environment, regulating health maintenance organizations, and reducing middle class taxes at the top of the national agenda. Top Priorities for the Nation All Reps. Dems. % % % Reducing crime 76 80 77 Improving educational system 74 66 80 Securing Social Security 73 68 77 Securing Medicare 71 66 79 Many of the issues emphasized by various elected officials draw only tepid endorsements from the public. Just over a quarter (28%) say that reforming campaign finance laws should be a top priority; support for emphasizing cuts in the capital gains tax is similarly anemic. Limiting access to abortions is a top priority for 26% of Americans, and providing access to the Internet is such for only 11%. Women place a higher priority on most issues than do men. The greatest difference is on gun control: 62% of women think that this should be a top priority, compared to 39% of men. Dealing with problems of poor 60 50 68 Protecting the environment 59 48 66 Dealing with problems of families with children 58 52 66 Regulating HMOs 57 47 65 Reducing middle class taxes 57 60 55 Dealing with moral breakdown 55 65 51 Improving the job situation 54 50 64 Strengthening gun control laws 51 41 65 Working to reduce racial tensions 49 35 60 Paying off the national debt 45 48 49 Developing a policy for the use of American military forces 42 42 45 Reforming campaign finance 28 32 29 Cutting capital gains tax 28 34 22 Limiting access to abortions 26 32 28 Providing Internet access 11 11 16 1 The question about issues in the 2000 presidential campaign asks people to say in their own words what they are interested in hearing about. The national priorities questions asks individuals to respond to a list of issues. The open-ended question captures the most salient issue, while the priority rating taps into broader concerns that may not be at the top of an individual s mind. 3

Fewer young Americans give top priority to bolstering the Social Security system than do older people. Just over half (55%) of those 18-29 say it should be a top priority, compared to 71% of 30-49 year-olds and 85% of those over age 50. Conversely, overwhelming numbers (85%) of young adults cite education as a top national priority, a rating that falls off among older Americans. While solid majorities of Democrats, Republicans and Independents agree about how much emphasis to place on reducing crime, this consensus breaks down across other issues. For example, Republicans place a somewhat lower priority on dealing with the problems of the poor and needy, regulating HMOs, strengthening gun control laws, and working to reduce racial tensions than do Democrats. Democrats place a lower priority on dealing with moral breakdown and cutting the capital gains tax. Current Washington Issues Americans continue to prefer spending on specific programs rather than tax cuts when asked what to do with the federal budget surplus. After reserving two-thirds of the surplus for Social Security, 69% of the public wants the remainder spent on specific programs: education, the environment, health care, crime-fighting and military defense. Spending on the Specifics Surplus should be used for: % Tax cut 22 Education, environment, health care, crime, and defense 69 Some other purpose (VOL.) 6 Don t know 3 The rhetoric of this debate, however, matters. Strong support for spending the surplus disappears when the alternative is new federal programs. The two-thirds who back spending on education, the environment, health care, crime-fighting and military defense drops to a meager 25% for new programs. Instead, support for a tax cut soars to 60%. Tax cut 60 Fund new programs 25 Some other purpose (VOL.) 11 Don t know 4 A mere 51% majority of those following the news of Clinton s Medicare plan favor it; the remainder divide evenly between opposition and no opinion. Democrats support Clinton s proposal 63%-to-16%, while Republicans divide 38%-to-34% on the issue. Support for changing Medicare is lower among senior citizens than among those under the age of 65 (43% vs. 54%, respectively). Backing for the specific components of Clinton s plan varies from a high of 82% for spending part of the budget surplus to make Medicare financially secure to a low of 42% for a costof-living increase in the deductible seniors pay. 4

In general, senior citizens are more reluctant to favor changes to Medicare. For instance, while 59% of those over age 65 support providing lowcost prescription drug coverage to Medicare recipients, 83% of those younger endorse the idea. Two-thirds of the public supports eliminating the co-payments and deductibles that Medicare recipients pay for preventative services. Just half (51%) of the public backs the proposal to allow those ages 62 to 65 to purchase Medicare coverage. On this, support is again weakest among those age 65 and older (30% support the expansion, compared to 56% of those younger). Americans of all ages are divided on whether or not to increase the deductible Medicare recipients pay: 42% favor it; 51% oppose this proposal. A 54%-37% majority of Americans continue to say that the laws should be changed to allow patients to sue their insurance companies when medical treatment is denied or delayed. This opinion changed little over the past year. Clinton's Medicare Proposals All 18-64 65+ Spend surplus on Medicare % % % Favor 82 83 82 Oppose 13 13 11 Don t know 5 4 7 Prescription drug coverage Favor 79 83 59 Oppose 15 13 29 Don t know 6 4 12 Eliminate deductibles for preventative services Favor 67 70 51 Oppose 27 27 33 Don t know 6 3 16 Allow 62-65 year-olds to buy Medicare coverage Favor 51 56 30 Oppose 37 34 50 Don t know 12 10 20 Cost-of-living increase in deductible Favor 42 44 32 Oppose 51 51 52 Don t know 7 5 16 Support for the right to sue is particularly strong among those who have followed reports about the American Medical Association s decision to unionize doctors (63%) as well as among Democrats (59%). Support is weaker among Republicans (47%), people living in rural areas (45%) and the less affluent (44%). Term Limit Reversal and Guns Matter Two issues stand out as potentially powerful themes in the upcoming elections: gun control and term limits. Two-thirds of voters say incumbents who voted for gun control should be re-elected. A strong 57% majority says that representatives who did not keep their term-limit pledges should go. And just seven months after the House of Representatives impeached President Clinton, the historic vote appears unlikely to have much bearing on the campaign. 5

Gun control is the most explosive issue tested in this survey. Among registered voters, 69% say that members who have voted for gun control should be re-elected. This attitude runs especially strong among women: 77%. Term limits also generate strong feelings among most voters, with the notable exception of those under age 30. A 57% majority of registered voters say that a member of Congress who has pledged to serve three terms and then decides to run for a fourth term should not be re-elected. Just 48% of young voters agree. While men feel more strongly than women that members of Congress should keep their promise, there is little difference among Democrats, Republicans and Independents. Who Deserves Re-election? Re-elect if Member of Should Shouldn't DK Congress... % % % Reneged on term limits 36 57 7= For gun control 69 25 6= Against gun control 35 55 10= For limiting amounts parties can raise 74 17 9= Against limiting amounts parties can raise 52 36 12= For impeachment 57 31 12= Against impeachment 52 38 10= Based on Registered Voters Incumbents who support limiting soft money in campaigns may get a boost from such a stance, but the issue won t hurt those who vote against it. If a member votes to limit the amount of money political parties can raise and spend, 74% of voters say the politician should be re-elected. But, when asked about a member who votes against such a measure, 52% said he or she should be re-elected anyway. Impeachment Anger Softens Majorities favor the re-election of members who voted both for and against impeachment. Support for those who voted for impeachment is slightly stronger, with 57% of voters saying these representatives should be re-elected; 52% say the same of members who voted against impeachment. There are other indications in the survey that criticism of Congress for impeaching Clinton may be softening. A greater number now thinks that the House did the right thing in impeaching him than supported the decision in December (44% vs. 35%). Moreover, a slightly larger number believes that Clinton should have resigned than did so just after the impeachment vote (35% vs. 30%). Doing the Right Thing Dec. July Percent thinking the right 1998 1999 thing was: % % House vote for impeachment 35^ 44 Clinton resignation 30 35 ^ Princeton Survey Research Associates 6

Overall, two-thirds of voters want their representative re-elected. But when asked about reelecting most members of Congress, 47% say they should not be sent back to Washington; one-infour say they should. Job approval of the Republican leaders in Congress remains low at 36%, and disapproval stands at 45%. While these numbers are basically unchanged over several months, disapproval is particularly strong among older Americans. About half of those over age 50 disapprove of the GOP congressional leaders, compared to slightly more than one-third of those under age 30. Presidential Politics A significant number of Americans (46%) know that at this point in the cycle, the 2000 presidential candidates have raised more money than previous contenders. Nearly one-in-three (29%) can name George W. Bush as the candidate with the biggest war chest. Bush campaign s fund raising success itself, however, is not likely to be helpful with voters. Two-thirds (65%) of them say that a candidate s ability to raise money is not a good measure of his or her ability to get things done. This opinion is particularly strong among Independents (72%) and those who know of Bush s large coffers (75%). Only 14% of the public is able to name a presidential candidate who has been trying to reform the way election campaigns are financed: 3% specifically name John McCain (for whom campaign finance reform is a principal theme); the same number mention Gore; 2% cite Bush. Among the GOP candidates, George W. Bush continues to be the heavy favorite in the primaries: 60% of registered Republicans say he is their first choice for the nomination, roughly the same as in December 1998. A distant second, Elizabeth Dole garners just 13% of the Republican primary vote. Fewer than one-in-ten registered Republicans support any one of the other GOP hopefuls. Similarly, little has changed in the race between Al Gore and former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley for the Democratic nod. Support for the candidates among Democratic voters continues to run better than two-to-one in Gore s favor 65% say they would like to see Gore as their nominee for president, compared with 29% who prefer The Republican Primary Race First Choice/ Lean % George W. Bush 60 Elizabeth Dole 13 Dan Quayle 9 John McCain 4 Patrick Buchanan 4 Steve Forbes 3 Gary Bauer 2 Orrin Hatch 1 Lamar Alexander 1 Based on Registered Republicans/Lean Republican 7

Bradley. Gore leads Bradley in nearly every demographic group, and he does particularly well among African Americans and the less affluent. Bradley s strongest support among Democrats comes from those who disapprove of Clinton and those who think he should have resigned. Looking ahead to the general election, Bush performs strongly against both Democratic contenders. Bush continues to lead Gore 53% to 42% in a hypothetical match-up, little changed from his 54%-to-41% advantage in March. Bush bests Bradley by an even wider 57%-to-36% margin. Bush-Gore Race Okay In general, Americans are satisfied with the current field of presidential contenders. A 53% majority of voters say they are satisfied with the candidates. Contentment is higher among Republicans, 70% of whom say they are satisfied with the likely candidates. Only 45% of Democrats and 47% of Independents share this opinion. The prospect of a Bush-Gore contest appeals to voters 76% say they would be satisfied with this match-up. A 46% plurality says this match-up would make them less interested in a third party candidate, although 40% say that a presidential contest between Bush and Gore would make them more interested in a third party candidate. 8 Reactions to a Bush-Gore Match-up Total Reps. Dems. Ind. Satisfaction... % % % % Very 26 33 28 18 Fairly 50 54 47 49 Not 22 12 24 30 Don t know 2 1 1 3 Candidates' positions would be... Different 47 61 42 39 Same 24 17 29 28 Don t know 29 22 29 33 Third party candidate would be... More appealing 40 29 41 53 Less appealing 46 57 47 33 Neither/DK 14 14 12 14 Based on registered voters. There is little indication, however, that more conservative members of the GOP might defect if faced with a Bush nomination. Fully 87% of Republicans say they would be satisfied with a contest between Bush and Gore. Among Republicans, exceptions are hard to find. Only 16% of white evangelicals and 28% of Republicans supporting Quayle, Bauer or Buchanan say they would not be satisfied with the selection of candidates in a Bush-Gore contest. By contrast, 47% of Democrats who prefer Bradley over Gore express dissatisfaction with a Bush-Gore match-up, and

54% say it would make them more interested in a third party candidate. Moreover, there is relatively little support for any of the third party candidates tested. Neither Jesse Ventura nor Reform Party candidate Ross Perot both of whom have high name recognition generate much support among the electorate. Only 13% of those who have heard of Ventura say there is a good chance they would vote for him, and only 11% of those who know Perot would vote for him. Former Connecticut Governor Weicker fares even worse. Fewer than one-in-four registered voters say they have heard of Weicker, of whom only 5% say there is a good chance they would vote for him. Kosovo Top News Story The situation in Kosovo kept the attention of the public in the aftermath of the air strikes on Yugoslavia. On the domestic front, President Clinton s proposals to change Medicare garnered Potential for Third Party Defection Backers of Quayle, Bauer Other or Buchanan Republicans Satisfied with % % Bush-Gore Very 19 32 Fairly 52 53 Not 28 14 Don't know 1 1 Backers of Other Bill Bradley Democrats Satisfied with % % Bush-Gore Very 8 31 Fairly 45 48 Not 47 18 Don't know * 3 modest interest, and slightly more people followed stories about the presidential campaign and Hillary Clinton than did a month ago. Regardless, large numbers complained that the media was giving too much coverage to the first lady s bid for a Senate seat from New York. Nearly one-third (32%) are paying very close attention to Kosovo this month, unchanged since May, and 19% are keeping a very close eye on the changes the president is proposing for Medicare. Furthermore, interest in both the presidential campaign and in Hillary Clinton s Senate bid is increasing somewhat: 21% are paying very close attention to Mrs. Clinton s possible run and 15% are giving that much attention to the 2000 presidential contest. While most Americans are paying some attention to these news reports, 40% nonetheless say the media is paying too much Enough Press Coverage? 2000 presidential campaign... % Too much 18 Too little 13 Right amount 59 Don't know 10 Hillary Clinton's campaign... Too much 40 Too little 7 Right amount 45 Don't know 8 9

attention to Hillary Clinton; 45% say the amount of coverage has been about right. Older men are most likely to consider the coverage too heavy. Coverage of the presidential campaign, however, is considered about right by almost six-in-ten Americans. Women s World Cup soccer was followed very closely by 18% of Americans, the same share that closely tracked the Mark McGwire/Sammy Sosa home run race last summer and similar to the 1998 NCAA basketball tournament which registered 20%. The soccer tournament garnered more attention than either news about the large budget surplus (13%) or the decision by the American Medical Association to unionize physicians (9%). More E-mail Use of e-mail grew significantly over the past seven months, with the number of users sending or receiving e-mail everyday up 13 percentage points this year to 46%. The number of people going online for news, however, remains virtually unchanged, with 21% saying they get news online everyday, compared to 25% who said so in December. Communicating online poses a familiar problem: junk mail. More than one-third (36%) of those who use e- mail report receiving a lot of unwanted messages, a majority of which are sales solicitations (72%). Junk e- mail, however, is a frustration for just 15% who say the extra messages make it difficult to get to the mail they want to read. Despite the influx of junk e-mail, many users rely on the Internet as an important medium for communication. A solid majority (58%) of users say they turn to e-mail for important messages; 41% use it only for routine messages. Fully 67% of Internet users who have been online for at least two years use e-mail for important messages. Online Trends Dec July All Adults 1998 1999 Goes Online... % % Yes 42 49 No 58 51 Online Users Gets News Online... Everyday 25 21 3-5 days per Week 17 15 1-2 days per Week 22 22 Less Often 28 33 Never/Don't Know 8 9 Uses E-mail... Everyday 33 46 3-5 days per Week 22 17 1-2 days per Week 17 14 Less Often 13 12 Never/Don't Know 15 11 Nearly half of all e-mail users (43%) say that communicating online has improved their relationships with family and friends. Only 1% say e-mail has worsened their relationships while 56% say their personal relationships have been unaffected. 10

PERCENT FOLLOWING EACH NEWS STORY "VERY CLOSELY" Reports of Women s Clinton s Situation in Hillary Clinton's World Medicare Kosovo Senate Run Cup Soccer Proposals (N) % % % % Total 32 21 18 19 (1200) Sex Male 36 19 21 17 (582) Female 27 23 16 22 (618) Race White 32 20 18 19 (965) Nonwhite 30 26 19 24 (216) Black 29 30 15 28 (145) Age Under 30 26 14 19 12 (255) 30-49 30 19 18 15 (518) 50-64 35 21 20 23 (214) 65+ 40 35 16 38 (188) Education College Grad. 41 29 29 22 (361) Some College 28 22 17 17 (331) High School Grad 29 17 16 20 (404) < H. S. Grad. 30 18 10 21 (95) Region East 34 26 23 19 (219) Midwest 31 20 16 19 (306) South 30 19 15 21 (454) West 33 21 21 18 (221) Party ID Republican 36 20 16 18 (347) Democrat 31 25 22 24 (396) Independent 31 19 17 17 (366) Question: Now I will read a list of some stories covered by news organizations this past month. As I read each item, tell me if you happened to follow this news story very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely. Continued... 11

PERCENT FOLLOWING EACH NEWS STORY "VERY CLOSELY" News about Candidates Reports of AMA's for 2000 Large Decision to Form Presidential Election Budget Surplus Labor Union (N) % % % Total 15 13 9 (1200) Sex Male 15 15 9 (582) Female 16 13 9 (618) Race White 15 13 8 (965) Nonwhite 19 16 12 (216) Black 20 16 15 (145) Age Under 30 13 6 5 (255) 30-49 12 10 8 (518) 50-64 15 18 10 (214) 65+ 29 29 16 (188) Education College Grad. 22 20 12 (361) Some College 18 13 7 (331) High School Grad. 11 12 9 (404) < H. S. Grad. 13 10 8 (95) Region East 13 12 7 (219) Midwest 17 17 5 (306) South 16 12 11 (454) West 15 15 12 (221) Party ID Republican 19 14 8 (347) Democrat 17 15 11 (396) Independent 11 12 7 (366) 12

PRESIDENTIAL TRIAL HEAT (Based on Registered Voters) Gore/ Bush/ Don't Bradley/ Bush/ Don't Lean Gore Lean Bush Know Lean Bradley Lean Bush Know (N) % % % % % % Total 42 53 5= 36 58 6= (875) Sex Male 37 58 5= 35 57 8= (418) Female 46 50 4= 37 58 5= (457) Race White 38 58 4= 35 60 5= (727) Non-white 67 25 8= 47 41 12= (138) Black 73 20 7= 50 36 14= (99) Age Under 30 46 47 7= 29 61 10= (129) 30-49 40 57 3= 37 58 5= (384) 50-64 41 55 4= 42 54 4= (180) 65+ 43 51 6= 35 56 9= (169) Education College Grad. 43 51 6= 41 53 6= (294) Some College 43 53 4= 39 58 3= (256) H.S. Grad 38 58 4= 32 61 7= (279) < H.S. 45 47 8= 36 54 10= (44) Family Income $75,000+ 42 55 3= 36 61 3= (149) $50,000-$74,999 38 59 3= 38 58 4= (167) $30,000-$49,999 38 58 4= 31 64 5= (200) $20,000-$29,999 45 51 4= 40 53 7= (110) <$20,000 48 48 4= 42 53 5= (110) Region East 47 47 6= 49 47 4= (158) Midwest 33 61 6= 28 62 10= (238) South 41 57 2= 34 61 5= (321) West 49 44 7= 39 54 7= (158) Question: Suppose the 2000 presidential election were being held TODAY, and the candidates were Al Gore/Bill Bradley, the Democrat and George W. Bush, the Republican. Who would you vote for? As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to Gore/Bradley, the Democrat or Bush, the Republican? Continued... 13

CONTINUED... Gore/ Bush/ Don't Bradley/ Bush/ Don't Lean Gore Lean Bush Know Lean Bradley Lean Bush Know (N) Total 42 53 5= 36 58 6= (875) Religious Affiliation Total White Protestant 33 64 3= 28 67 5= (433) White Prot. Evangelical 25 73 2= 21 76 3= (230) White Prot. Non-Evangel. 42 54 4= 37 56 7= (203) White Catholic 39 55 6= 38 57 5= (171) Community Size Large City 51 42 7= 41 51 8= (192) Suburb 41 55 4= 39 56 5= (219) Small City/Town 43 52 5= 37 56 7= (282) Rural Area 30 66 4= 29 68 3= (172) Party ID Republican 6 93 1= 3 95 2= (272) Democrat 78 19 3= 66 29 5= (313) Independent 34 58 8= 36 56 8= (246) Clinton Approval Approve 62 34 4= 53 41 6= (505) Disapprove 8 88 4= 10 86 4= (292) GOP Congressional Approval Approve 20 77 3= 16 80 4= (318) Disapprove 58 37 5= 52 42 6= (435) 1996 Presidential Vote Clinton 68 29 3= 58 37 5= (375) Dole 2 96 2= 6 93 1= (168) 14

ABOUT THIS SURVEY Results for the main survey are based on telephone interviews conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates among a nationwide sample of 1,200 adults, 18 years of age or older, during the period July 13-18, 1999. For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For results based on either Form 1 (N=607) or Form 2 (N=593), the sampling error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. For results based on registered voters (N=875), the sampling error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. copyright 1999 Tides Center 15

SURVEY METHODOLOGY IN DETAIL The sample for this survey is a random digit sample of telephone numbers selected from telephone exchanges in the continental United States. The random digit aspect of the sample is used to avoid "listing" bias and provides representation of both listed and unlisted numbers (including not-yet-listed). The design of the sample ensures this representation by random generation of the last two digits of telephone numbers selected on the basis of their area code, telephone exchange, and bank number. The telephone exchanges were selected with probabilities proportional to their size. The first eight digits of the sampled telephone numbers (area code, telephone exchange, bank number) were selected to be proportionally stratified by county and by telephone exchange within county. That is, the number of telephone numbers randomly sampled from within a given county is proportional to that county's share of telephone numbers in the U.S. Only working banks of telephone numbers are selected. A working bank is defined as contiguous telephone numbers containing three or more residential listings. The sample was released for interviewing in replicates. Using replicates to control the release of sample to the field ensures that the complete call procedures are followed for the entire sample. The use of replicates also insures that the regional distribution of numbers called is appropriate. Again, this works to increase the representativeness of the sample. At least five attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The calls were staggered over times of day and days of the week to maximize the chances of making a contact with a potential respondent. All interview breakoffs and refusals were re-contacted at least once in order to attempt to convert them to completed interviews. In each contacted household, interviewers asked to speak with the "youngest male 18 or older who is at home." If there is no eligible man at home, interviewers asked to speak with "the oldest woman 18 or older who is at home." This systematic respondent selection technique has been shown empirically to produce samples that closely mirror the population in terms of age and gender. Non-response in telephone interview surveys produces some known biases in survey-derived estimates because participation tends to vary for different subgroups of the population, and these subgroups are likely to vary also on questions of substantive interest. In order to compensate for these known biases, the sample data are weighted in analysis. The demographic weighting parameters are derived from a special analysis of the most recently available Census Bureau's Current Population Survey (March 1998). This analysis produced population parameters for the demographic characteristics of households with adults 18 or older, which are then compared with the sample characteristics to construct sample weights. The analysis only included households in the continental United States that contain a telephone. The weights are derived using an iterative technique that simultaneously balances the distributions of all weighting parameters. 16

PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE & THE PRESS JULY 1999 NEWS INTEREST INDEX FINAL TOPLINE JULY 13-18, 1999 N=1,200 Q.1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President? [IF DK ENTER AS DK. IF DEPENDS PROBE ONCE WITH: Overall do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President? IF STILL DEPENDS ENTER AS DK] Approve Disapprove Don't Know July, 1999 58 31 11= June, 1999 55 35 10= May, 1999 56 34 10= April, 1999 56 38 6= March, 1999 62 31 7= February, 1999 64 30 6= Mid-January, 1999 66 29 5= January, 1999 63 30 7= Late December, 1998 71 27 2= Early December, 1998 61 32 7= November, 1998 65 29 6= September 21-22, 1998 62 33 5= September 19-20, 1998 55 36 9= Early September, 1998 61 33 6= Late August, 1998 62 32 6= Early August, 1998 63 28 9= June, 1998 59 32 9= May, 1998 62 28 10= April, 1998 62 28 10= March, 1998 65 26 9= Early February, 1998 71 26 3= January, 1998 61 30 9= November, 1997 58 31 11= September, 1997 58 29 13= August, 1997 59 32 9= June, 1997 54 34 12= May, 1997 57 34 9= April, 1997 55 34 11= February, 1997 60 32 8= Early February, 1997 57 30 13= January, 1997 59 31 10= November, 1996 57 34 9= July, 1996 54 38 8= June, 1996 54 38 8= April, 1996 53 39 8= March, 1996 55 38 7= February, 1996 51 39 10= January, 1996 50 43 7= October, 1995 48 42 10= September, 1995 45 42 13= 17

Q.1 CONTINUED... Approve Disapprove Don't Know August, 1995 44 44 12= June, 1995 50 40 10= April, 1995 47 43 10= March, 1995 44 44 12= February, 1995 44 44 12= December, 1994 41 47 12= November, 1994 48 40 12= October, 1994 41 47 12= Early October, 1994 38 47 15= September, 1994 41 52 7= July, 1994 45 46 9= June, 1994 42 44 14= May, 1994 46 42 12= March, 1994 45 42 13= January, 1994 51 35 14= Early January, 1994 48 35 17= December, 1993 48 36 16= October, 1993 44 42 14= September, 1993 49 35 16= Early September, 1993 43 43 14= August, 1993 39 46 15= May, 1993 39 43 18= Early May, 1993 45 37 18= April, 1993 49 29 22= February, 1993 56 25 19= Q.2 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republican leaders in Congress are doing? [IF DK ENTER AS DK. IF DEPENDS PROBE ONCE WITH: Overall do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republican leaders in Congress are doing? IF STILL DEPENDS ENTER AS DK] Approve Disapprove Don t Know July, 1999 36 45 19= June, 1999 37 46 17= May, 1999 38 44 18= March, 1999 38 47 15= February, 1999 37 51 12= Mid-January, 1999 36 51 13= January, 1999 38 50 12= Late December, 1998 39 56 5= Early December, 1998 38 49 13= November, 1998 41 48 11= September 21-22, 1998 44 44 12= September 19-20, 1998 46 41 13= Early September, 1998 44 37 19= Late August, 1998 48 36 16= Early August, 1998 43 37 20= June, 1998 42 38 20= May, 1998 40 41 19= 18

Q.2 CONTINUED... Approve Disapprove Don t Know April, 1998 41 40 19= March, 1998 43 39 18= January, 1998 43 41 16= November, 1997 41 43 16= August, 1997 42 44 14= June, 1997 33 50 17= May, 1997 40 44 16= April, 1997 40 44 16= February, 1997 44 42 14= January, 1997 38 47 15= November, 1996 40 43 17= July, 1996 38 48 14= June, 1996 36 50 14= April, 1996 39 46 15= March, 1996 35 51 14= February, 1996 33 53 14= January, 1996 36 54 10= October, 1995 36 51 13= September, 1995 36 50 14= August, 1995 38 45 17= June, 1995 41 45 14= April, 1995 44 43 13= March 1995 43 39 18= December, 1994 52 28 20= Now I would like to ask you about some things that have been in the news. Not everyone will have heard about them... Q.3 As you may know, the House of Representatives recently voted on a bill to require 24-hour background checks on people buying guns at gun shows. As far as you know, did this bill pass or not? 16 Yes, it did pass 32 No, it didn t pass 52 Don t know/refused ASK FORM 1 ONLY [N=607]: Q.4F1 In your opinion, over the past few years have we made significant progress in reducing the federal budget deficit, or not? Feb May Dec Feb 1999 1997 1994 1989 59 Yes 61 29 26 15 29 No 29 59 65 77 12 Don't know/refused 10 12 9 8 19

ASK FORM 2 ONLY [N=593]: Q.5F2 In your opinion, over the past few years have we made significant progress in paying down the national debt, or not? 50 Yes 37 No 13 Don't know/refused ASK ALL: Q.6 Now I will read a list of some stories covered by news organizations this past month. As I read each item, tell me if you happened to follow this news story very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? [INSERT ITEM; ROTATE ITEMS] Very Fairly Not too Not at all DK Closely Closely Closely Closely (VOL) a. The situation in Kosovo 32 42 16 10 *= June, 1999 2 32 42 15 10 1= May, 1999 32 38 19 10 1= Late April, 1999 41 39 13 7 *= April, 1999 41 37 16 6 0= March, 1999 3 43 32 15 9 1= February, 1999 4 11 30 28 30 1= Mid-January, 1999 5 9 21 24 44 2= March, 1998 6 5 12 26 55 2= [NO ITEM b] c. The American Medical Association s decision to form a labor union for doctors 9 19 25 46 1= d. Reports about a surprisingly large federal budget surplus 13 28 25 33 1= e. President Clinton s proposals to change the Medicare system 19 35 25 20 1= June, 1997 7 24 27 25 23 1= February, 1997 20 27 23 28 2= January, 1996 8 30 36 22 12 *= September, 1995 31 40 18 11 *= Q.6 CONTINUED... Very Fairly Not too Not at all DK 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 In April, May and June, 1999, the story was listed as "NATO air strikes against Serbian forces." In March, 1999, the story was listed as NATO air strikes against Serbian forces in Kosovo. In February, 1999, the story was listed as "NATO efforts to end ethnic conflict in Kosovo, Serbia." In Mid-January, 1999, the story was listed as "The massacre of 45 people in Kosovo, Serbia." In March, 1998, the story was listed as Ethnic conflict in Kosovo, Serbia. In June and February, 1997, the story was listed as "The debate in Washington about how to reform the Medicare system." In January 1996 and September 1995, the story was listed "The debate in Washington over the future of the Medicare system." 20

Closely Closely Closely Closely (VOL) f. Women s World Cup soccer 18 26 21 35 *= g. News about candidates for the 2000 presidential election 15 38 24 22 1= June, 1999 11 25 29 34 1= h. Reports that Hillary Clinton might run for the U.S. Senate 21 37 26 15 1= June, 1999 14 32 31 22 1= February, 1999 19 35 24 21 1= ASK FORM 1 ONLY [N=607]: N.lF1 So far, do you think news organizations are giving too much coverage to the 2000 presidential campaign, too little coverage to the campaign, or the right amount of coverage? March Oct Sept Feb Oct May Nov 1996 1995 1992 1992 1991 1988 1987 18 Too much 29 18 22 19 12 24 21 13 Too little 10 18 11 15 22 7 16 59 Right amount 58 60 62 62 58 62 58 10 Don't know/refused 3 4 5 4 8 7 5 ASK FORM 2 ONLY [N=593]: N.2F2 So far, do you think news organizations are giving too much coverage to Hillary Clinton s possible Senate campaign in New York, too little coverage to the campaign, or the right amount of coverage? 40 Too Much 7 Too little 45 Right amount 8 Don't know/refused ASK ALL: P.1 As it s shaping up so far, what s your opinion of the likely presidential candidates for next year? Would you say that you are very satisfied, fairly satisfied, not too satisfied, or not at all satisfied with the likely choices? -- Registered Voters-- Late Late Oct Sept June Oct Aug June Total RVs 1996 9 1996 1996 1992 1992 1992 11 13 Very satisfied 11 11 9 10 11 6 42 40 Fairly satisfied 48 50 37 41 42 31 22 25 Not too satisfied 27 26 31 33 31 35 13 12 Not at all satisfied 11 10 19 14 15 26 12 10 Don't know/refused 3 3 4 2 1 2 (N=875) 9 In previous years the question was worded "What s your opinion of the presidential candidates for next year? Would you say that you are very satisfied, fairly satisfied, not too satisfied, or not at all satisfied with the choices? " 21

ROTATE Q.7 AND Q.8; RANDOMIZE ORDER OF NAMES: On a different subject... Q.7 Now I am going to read you the names of some possible candidates for the Republican nomination for President in 2000. AFTER I READ ALL THE NAMES, would you tell me which one you would most like to see nominated as the Republican party s candidate for President? (READ AND ROTATE) Q.7a Q.7b And who would be your SECOND choice? (READ LIST AGAIN IF NEEDED) IF RESPONDENT GIVES SECOND CHOICE, SKIP Q.7b. Well as of today, to whom do you most lean? BASED ON REGISTERED REPUBLICANS/LEAN REPUBLICAN [N=372]: July Dec 1999 1998 10 Dan Quayle First Choice/Lean Quayle 9 8 Second Choice 14 15 George W. Bush First Choice/Lean Bush 60 57 Second Choice 19 17 Elizabeth Dole First Choice/Lean Dole 13 N/A Second Choice 27 N/A Steve Forbes First Choice/Lean Forbes 3 9 Second Choice 11 14 Patrick Buchanan First Choice/Lean Buchanan 4 5 Second Choice 6 11 John McCain First Choice/Lean McCain 4 4 Second Choice 8 6 Gary Bauer First Choice/Lean Bauer 2 1 Second Choice 2 3 Lamar Alexander First Choice/Lean Alexander 1 2 Second Choice 2 6 Orrin Hatch First Choice/Lean Hatch 1 N/A Second Choice 4 N/A None of them (VOL.) First Choice 1 5 Second Choice 5 15 Don t know/refused (VOL.) First Choice 2 5 Second Choice 2 8 10 In December 1998, Elizabeth Dole and Orrin Hatch were not included in list of possible candidates; John Kasich was. 22

Q.8 There are now two candidates for the Democratic nomination for President in 2000, Al Gore and Bill Bradley. Please tell me which one you would most like to see nominated as the Democratic party s candidate for President? Q.8a Well as of today, to whom do you most lean? BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS/LEAN DEMOCRAT [N=432]: 65 Al Gore/Lean Gore 29 Bill Bradley/Lean Bradley 2 None of them (VOL.) 4 Don t know/refused (VOL.) ASK ALL: (ROTATE Q.9 AND Q.10) Q.9 Suppose the 2000 presidential election were being held TODAY, and the candidates were Al Gore, the Democrat and George W. Bush, the Republican. Who would you vote for? IF 3' OTHER, 8' DON T KNOW, OR 9' REFUSED, ASK: Q.9a As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to Gore, the Democrat or Bush, the Republican? BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=875]: March January Early Sept 1999 11 1999 1998 42 Gore/Lean Gore 41 44 40 53 Bush/Lean Bush 54 50 53 5 Undecided/Other 5 6 7 ASK ALL: Q.10 Suppose the 2000 presidential election were being held TODAY, and the candidates were Bill Bradley, the Democrat and George W. Bush, the Republican. Who would you vote for? IF 3' OTHER OR 9' DON T KNOW/REFUSED, ASK: Q.10a As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to Bradley, the Democrat or Bush, the Republican? BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=875]: 36 Bradley/Lean Bradley 57 Bush/Lean Bush 7 Undecided/Other 11 In previous months, the question asked: "Suppose the 2000 presidential election were being held TODAY, and the candidates were Al Gore, the Democrat and Texas governor George W. Bush, the Republican. Who would you vote for?" 23

ASK ALL: Q.11 Next, I m going to read you a list of some people who have been in the news lately. Not everyone will have heard of them. For each one that I name, please tell me whether or not you have heard of this person. (First,) (INSERT NAME; ROTATE ITEMS), have you heard of this person or not? (IF YES, ASK Q.12; IF NO, DK, SKIP TO NEXT ITEM.) Q.12 How much of a chance is there that you would vote for (INSERT NAME) if he is a candidate for president in 2000 is there a good chance, some chance, or no chance? BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=875] -- Based on those who have heard -- Have Have not DK/ Good Some No DK/ Heard Heard Ref. Chance Chance Chance Ref. a. Jesse Ventura 79 20 1= 13 19 67 1= b. Lowell Weicker 24 75 1= 5 25 66 4= c. Ross Perot 96 4 *= 11 19 70 0= ASK ALL: ON ANOTHER SUBJECT... Q.13 What one issue would you most like to hear presidential candidates talk about next year? (OPEN-ENDED; ACCEPT UP TO THREE MENTIONS) July Sep Oct Oct 1999 1996 1995 1991 18 Health care reform/health care in general 14 20 8 14 Social Security - - - 11 Medicare - - - 9 Education/Education reform 11 6 11 9 Cutting taxes/taxes 16 8 6 8 Balancing the budget/budget deficit/national debt 10 14 8 7 Crime/Drugs 6 9 5 7 Gun control - - - 6 Foreign Policy 4 5-6 The moral crisis in this country 5 8-4 The economy 13 14 43 2 Welfare reform 12 8-2 The job situation/unemployment/protecting US jobs 8 6 15 1 Abortion 4 - - 1 Race relations * 2 - Reforming/Cleaning up the political system/term limits/ 1 Campaign finance reform 3 4-10 Other (SPECIFY) 16 10 27 13 Don't know/refused 6 6 13 - None 2 3 - Q.13a If George W. Bush becomes the Republican candidate for President and Al Gore the Democratic candidate for President, how satisfied would you be with the choices... very satisfied, fairly satisfied, not too satisfied, or not at all satisfied? Total RVs 26 26 Very satisfied 50 50 Fairly satisfied 14 15 Not too satisfied 7 7 Not at all satisfied 3 2 Don t know/refused 24

ASK FORM 1 ONLY [N=607] [REGISTERED VOTERS N=455] Q.13b F1 What s your impression, do George W. Bush and Al Gore take different positions on the issues or are they pretty similar in their positions on the issues? Total RVs 43 47 Different 25 24 Same 32 29 Don t know/refused ASK FORM 2 ONLY [N=593] [REGISTERED VOTERS N=420] Q.13c F2 If George W. Bush becomes the Republican candidate for President and Al Gore the Democratic candidate for President, would that make you more interested in seeing a third party candidate run for President or would that make you less interested in seeing a third party candidate run for President? Total RVs 41 40 More interested 45 46 Less interested 9 10 Neither (VOL. DO NOT READ) 5 4 Don t know/refused ASK ALL: M.1 Do you think a candidate s ability to raise money is a good measure of his or her ability to get things done or don t you think this is a good measure? Total RVs 36 30 Good measure 58 65 Not a good measure 6 5 Don t know/refused 25

Q.14 Now a few questions about national issues. As I read from a list, tell me if you think the item that I read should be a priority. (First,) should (INSERT ITEM; ROTATE) be a top priority, important but lower priority, not too important, or should it not be done? (What about (INSERT ITEM)?) 12 Important Should Top But lower Not too Not be DK/ ASK FORM 1 [N=607] Priority Priority Important Done Refused a. Improving the job situation 54 30 10 3 3= January, 1999 50 34 10 2 4= January, 1998 54 32 10 3 1= January, 1997 66 26 5 2 1= December, 1994 64 27 5 2 2= b. Regulating health maintenance organizations (HMOs) and managed health care plans 57 29 7 4 3= c. Cutting the capital gains tax 28 42 18 5 7= January, 1999 24 40 18 5 13= January, 1998 25 40 20 7 8= January, 1997 29 38 17 8 8= December, 1994 27 38 16 7 12= d. Reducing crime 76 20 2 1 1= January, 1999 70 24 3 1 2 = January, 1998 71 25 2 1 1= January, 1997 70 25 3 2 *= December, 1994 78 17 2 1 2= e. Paying off the national debt 45 41 10 2 2= January, 1999 42 43 10 1 4= January, 1998 46 40 9 3 2= f. Reducing federal income taxes for the middle class 57 30 8 4 1= January, 1999 52 33 8 3 4= January, 1998 54 33 8 3 2= January, 1997 42 38 10 8 2= December, 1994 53 32 9 3 3= g. Reforming the campaign finance system 28 37 23 7 5= January, 1999 29 36 21 6 8= January, 1998 32 34 24 5 5= January, 1997 31 37 23 5 4= 12 In previous surveys the question was worded: "Now a few questions about priorities for President Clinton and Congress this year. As I read from a list, tell me if you think the item that I read should be a priority. (First,) should (INSERT ITEM; ROTATE) be a top priority, important but lower priority, not too important, or should it not be done? (What about (INSERT ITEM)? 26

Q. 14 CONTINUED... Important Should Top But lower Not too Not be DK/ : Priority Priority Important Done Refused h. Dealing with the problems of families with children 58 28 6 4 4= January, 1999 58 30 5 3 4= January, 1998 55 30 9 4 2= i. Strengthening gun control laws 51 23 11 12 3= j. Providing Internet access for everyone 11 22 40 22 5= who wants or needs it ASK FORM 2 [N=593]: k. Improving the educational system 74 19 4 1 2= January, 1999 74 22 2 1 1= January, 1998 78 17 3 2 *= January, 1997 75 20 3 2 *= l. Taking steps to make the Social Security system financially sound 73 23 3 * 1= January, 1999 71 24 3 1 1= January, 1998 71 24 4 1 *= January, 1997 75 20 2 2 1= m. Taking steps to make the Medicare system financially sound 71 24 3 1 1= January, 1999 62 33 2 1 2= January, 1998 64 31 3 1 1= January, 1997 64 31 3 1 1= n. Working to reduce racial tensions 49 37 8 4 2= January, 1999 49 35 11 3 2= January, 1998 41 38 13 7 1= January, 1997 50 34 9 5 2= o. Dealing with the problems of poor and needy people 60 33 5 1 1= January, 1999 57 37 4 1 1= January, 1998 57 34 6 2 1= January, 1997 57 35 6 2 *= p. Protecting the environment 59 32 7 1 1= January, 1999 52 39 7 1 1= January, 1998 53 37 8 1 1= January, 1997 54 35 8 2 1= q. Dealing with the moral breakdown in the country 55 28 8 5 4= January, 1999 50 31 10 5 4= January, 1998 48 31 13 6 2= January, 1997 52 29 10 6 3= 27

Q. 14 CONTINUED... Important Should Top But lower Not too Not be DK/ Priority Priority Important Done Refused r. Developing a policy about the use of American military forces in other countries 42 34 12 8 4= s. Limiting access to abortions 26 26 18 26 4= [NO QUESTION 15] ASK ALL: ON ANOTHER SUBJECT... Q.16 Would you like to see your representative in Congress be re-elected in the next congressional election, or not? BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N= 875]: Early Late Early Early --Gallup-- Oct Sept March Jan Aug Nov Oct Sept Sept Nov Oct Oct Oct 25-28 1998 1998 1998 1998 1997 1996 1996 1996 1996 1994 1994 1994 1990 66 Yes 58 63 63 66 66 60 62 55 62 58 55 49 62 23 No 20 20 21 23 22 16 19 17 19 25 30 29 22 Congressperson is * not running (VOL.) 2 1 1 0 0 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 11 No opinion 20 16 15 11 12 21 17 26 17 16 13 20 14 Q.17 Regardless of how you feel about your own representative, would you like to see most members of Congress re-elected in the next congressional election, or not? BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=875]: Early Late Early Oct Sept March Jan Aug Sept Nov Oct Oct 1998 1998 1998 1998 1997 1996 1994 1994 1994 41 Yes 39 46 45 44 45 43 31 31 28 47 No 39 36 41 43 42 43 51 56 56 12 Don t know/refused 22 18 14 13 13 14 18 13 16 Q.18 Suppose a member of Congress said he or she would only serve three terms but has now decided to run for a fourth term. Do you think this member should be re-elected, or not? BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=875]: 36 Should be 57 Shouldn t be 7 Don t know/refused 28