The Influence of Public Opinion on Post Cold War US Military Interventions
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The Influence of Public Opinion on Post Cold War US Military Interventions Hel e n e D ie ck Palgrave macmillan
THE INFLUENCE OF PUBLIC OPINION ON POST COLD WAR US MILITARY INTERVENTIONS Copyright Helene Dieck, 2015. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2015 978-1-137-51922-1 All rights reserved. First published in 2015 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN in the United States a division of St. Martin s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-70465-1 ISBN 978-1-137-51923-8 (ebook) DOI 10.1057/9781137519238 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data. Dieck, Helene. The influence of public opinion on post-cold war US military interventions / by Helene Dieck. pages cm Summary: Based on interviews with political decision-makers involved in post-cold War case studies, this research reassesses the prevalent conclusion in the academic literature, according to which American public opinion has limited influence on military interventions, by including the level of commitment in the study of the decision-making process Provided by publisher. Includes bibliographical references. 1. United States Military policy Public opinion. 2. Public opinion United States. 3. War and society United States. 4. Presidents United States Decision making. I. Title. UA23.D528 2015 306.2 70973 dc23 2014049816 A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. Design by Newgen Knowledge Works (P) Ltd., Chennai, India. First edition: July 2015 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
A ma grand-m è re
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Contents A ck n o w l e d g m e n t s ix I nt ro duc t ion 1 Part I The Influence of Public Opinion on Military Interventions: Concepts and Theoretical Approaches I nt ro duc t ion 15 1 The Influence of Public Opinion on Military Interventions: Theoretical Approaches and Their Limits 19 2 Including Considerations with Military Strategy to the Study of the Influence of Public Opinion 31 C onc lu sion 63 Part II Public Opinion and the Initial Decision to Use Force I nt ro duc t ion 67 3 Pe r s on a l Pre f e re nc e s 69 4 T he I nt e r ve nt ion i n Rw a nd a 8 7 5 T he I nt e r ve nt ion i n B o sn i a 95 6 The Intervention in Haiti 109 7 The Intervention in Afghanistan in 2001 123 8 The Intervention in Iraq in 2003 127 C onc lu sion 141
viii Contents Part III Changing Strategy for Military Operations: The President s Room for Maneuver I nt ro duc t ion 147 9 T he I r a q Su r g e 151 10 T he A f g h a n Su r g e 165 C onc lu sion 17 7 C onc lu sion s a nd I mpl ic at ion s 179 A n n e x : C on d u c t in g In t e r v i e w s 191 Not e s 195 B ibl i o g r a ph y 245 In t e r v i e w s 265 In d e x 269
Acknowledgments F oreign academics read American politics with a different lense. In my case, I was sturtled by my first experiences as a French exchange student at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 2003. One of these experiences took place at a weekly farmers market, around the State Capital. Between the local cheese and the Amish sections, I was feeling uneased by the presence of a believer reading out loud the Bible. In France, religion is considered a private matter and such events are rather limited in public places. This event reminded me of the religious rhetoric surrounding the onset of the intervention in Iraq. Surely this rhetoric resonated with a religious nation. My passion about the domestic determinants of American foreign policy stems from these early experiences living in the United States. My undergraduate thesis focused on the ideas that guided American foreign policy, particularly its response to 9/11, while my Master s thesis dealt with the congressional oversight of the political use of the WMD intelligence prior to the Iraq War. Following the same research agenda, I decided to concentrate my Ph D dissertation on the influence of public opinion on the decisionmaking process. I would like to recognize my PhD adviser, Professor Samy Cohen, who guided my focus towards the influence of public opinion and conduct interviews with decision-makers. Thanks to his advice, I was able to improve the focus, quality, and methodology of my research. I feel extremely grateful for all the time and effort he spent in order to supervise my research project and I m very lucky to have had such an outstanding mentor. I would also like to thank the other members of the jury for my Ph. D. defense for their helpful comments: Dr. Bruce Jentleson, Thomas Lindemann; Dr. Andre Kaspi, and Dr. Mario del Pero. These comments helped make important improvements to my Ph. D. dissertation. In order to do my field search, the French Ministry of Defense offered me a position as a visiting researcher at the RAND Corporation in Washington, DC. Apart from being close to many former decision-makers involved in my case studies, my research benefitted from the experience and advice of many senior researchers and I would like to thank my supervisors: Dr. James Dobbins, Dr. Stuart Johnson, and Dr. Steve Larrabee. In particular, James Dobbins was the first to suggest that the influence between public opinion and
x Acknowledgments decisionmaking goes both ways: decisions impact public opinion as much as public opinion impacts decisions. Furthermore, I m also indebted to the discussants and panel chairs for taking the time to read my papers and for making helpful comments during the International Studies Association, the Midwest Political Science Studies Association, and the American Political Science Association annual conferences in 2011, 2012, and 2013, especially Dr. Ralph Carter, Dr. Brandon Prins, Dr. Christopher Gelpi, Dr. Peter Feaver, Dr. Philip Potter, and Dr. Amanda Licht. I would also like to thank other professors and colleagues who read early versions or sections of my dissertation including: Jean-Jacques Patry, Lieutenant-Colonel Xavier Liffran, Dr. Stephen Watts, Dr. Christopher Chivvis, Dr. George E. Marcus, Dr. Marie Henehan, and Dr. Patrick Hassenteufel. These comments allowed me to test various theories and considerably improve the final book. I would also like to acknowledge Professor Michael Barnett, who took the time to meet weekly with me and introduce me to political science research when I was an undergraduate student at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. In addition, I m thankful for my family. I feel lucky to have had the unconditional support of my amazing husband and my loving son. Finally, this research would not have been possible without the interviewees who volunteered their time to respond to my questions. I m particularly thankful because most of them still held senior roles. Interviewing former decisionmakers brought me to fascinating places, from Capitol Hill to the Pentagon to K Street. Each interview was a new experience and I feel very lucky to have had the opportunity to meet with so many outstanding professionals.
Public opinion sets bounds to every government, and is the real sovereign in every free one. As there are cases where the public opinion must be obeyed by the government; so there are cases, where not being fixed, it may be influenced by the government. This distinction, if kept in view, would prevent or decide many debates on the respect due from the government to the sentiments of the people. James Madison, Public Opinion, National Gazette, December 19, 1791