MEASURING PUBLIC VIOLENCE IN SOUTH AFRICA: TOWARDS A MONITORING FRAMEWORK Lizette Lancaster Manager: Crime and Justice Hub Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014
OVERVIEW The Crime and Justice Information Hub The national perspective of social unrest ISS Public Violence Monitoring Project What do the figures say? Towards a local social unrest framework Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 2
ABOUT THE ISS Institute for Security Studies (ISS) is an independent African policy research institute. Our work is aimed at contributing to a stable and peaceful Africa characterised by sustainable development, human rights, the rule of law, democracy and collaborative security. Offices in SA, Kenya, Ethiopia & Senegal The Governance, Crime and Justice Division of the ISS works to inform and improve policy and public discourse on crime, corruption, its prevention and the functioning of the criminal justice system. We do this by conducting research, analysing policy, disseminating information and providing expertise as a contribution towards a safer and secure society. Our Vision: A safe and prosperous Africa for all its people. Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 3
THE CRIME AND JUSTICE HUB Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 4
CRIME HUB FOCUS AREAS Crime Prevention Crime & Violence Data collection & analysis Policing Prisons Justice Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 5
MONITORING SA CRIME TRENDS Millions 3,0 2,5 2,0 Other 1,5 1,0 0,5 Property crime Robbery Violent interpersonal crime 0,0 Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 6
CRIMINAL CASES RELATING TO PUBLIC VIOLENCE 1 900 1783 1 700 1 500 1 300 1 500 1 323 1226 1 100 979 974 1 044 1152 900 700 500 1 023 895 Public violence cases increased: 82% in 10 years 45% in two years 300 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 Public Violence Linear (Public Violence ) Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 7
POLICE STATISTICS: PUBLIC ORDER INCIDENTS 14 100 Peaceful incidents: Crowd related assemblies, gatherings & meetings Violent incidents: Crowd related actions resulting in violence 12 100 10 100 8 100 6 100 4 100 7 866 7 858 10 156 8 981 6 640 6 342 7 993 11 842 10 832 10 517 Violent incidents increased: 234% in 10 years 57% past two years 2 100 562 660 965 753 755 753 1014 974 1 226 1 882 100 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 Peaceful Incidents Unrest related Incidents Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 8
OTHER DATA SOURCES 500 470 400 300 200 100 0 314 287 252 206 169 162 173 155 104 107 111 82 50 34 32 27 13 10 2 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13-100 Municipal IQ University of Johannesburg Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 9
PUBLIC VIOLENCE MONITORING AND MAPPING PROJECT Mapping public violence since January 2013 Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 10
RATIONALE FOR THE PROJECT The challenges Data on and research into public violence has been ad hoc Not often publicly available Varies in scope, quality, credibility and reliability The need A publicly available, comprehensive & continually updated database of various types of public or inter-group violence The benefits Allow for a better understanding of patterns, trends & possible correlations between various forms of public violence and other variables This would enable all role players, including state organs, to design multi-faceted and appropriate responses to better manage, if not prevent, such incidents Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 11
OBJECTIVE To systematically track the nature and extent of violence resulting from community based protests, labour strikes, vigilantism, political conflict and other crowd or inter-group activity The long-term project aim is to support the identification of appropriate responses that reduce and prevent these forms of violence Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 12
METHODOLOGY 1. Manual tracking of 95+ media sources online 2. Development of database and variables 3. Manual capturing of information 4. Coding of information 5. Geocoding of all incidents 6. Verification of information 7. Validation of database 8. Mapping of incidents based on geocodes 9. Analysis of data 10. Ongoing refinement of variables and codes Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 13
PUBLIC EVENTS & VIOLENCE MONITORED (18 MONTHS) Category Number Percentage % Peaceful % Violent Labour related strikes and marches 301 28% 77% 23% Community level service delivery protests 300 28% 23% 77% Crime related protests 123 12% 76% 24% Election related incidents 97 9% 30% 70% Education related protests (e.g. admission to schools) 57 5% 51% 49% Vigilantism 56 5% 9% 91% Political causes (e.g. protests against leadership) 46 4% 78% 22% Transport related protests (e.g. toll road protests) 41 4% 88% 12% Individual causes (e.g. Protest against telecoms costs) 19 2% 84% 16% Xenophobia 17 2% 12% 88% Environmental related protests (e.g. fracking) 5 0% 100% 0% Total 1062 100% 52% 48% Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 14
DISTRIBUTION SOUTH AFRICA Period: 1 Jan 2013 to 7 May 2014 Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 15
DISTRIBUTION GAUTENG Period: 1 Jan 2013 to 7 May 2014 Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 16
PROVINCIAL PICTURE Mpumalanga 4% Limpopo 6% Free State 3% Northern Cape 2% North West 7% Gauteng 36% Eastern Cape 9% KwaZulu Natal 15% Western Cape 18% Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 17
METRO AND NON-METRO DISTRIBUTION Metro Non-metro 36% 28% 52% 0% 26% 37% 17% 30% 17% 39% 24% 33% 64% 72% 49% 100% 74% 64% 83% 70% 83% 61% 77% 67% Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 18
DISTRIBUTION BY MONTH 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Crime related Education related Election related Environment related Individual causes Labour related Political causes Service delivery Transport related Vigilantism Xenophobia Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 19
GROUP SIZE Very small (< 20) 2% Large (> 1000) 21% Small (20-49) 3% Small to medium (50-199) 21% Medium to large (500-1000) 28% Medium (200-499) 25% Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 20
AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE OF SOCIAL UNREST Social unrest is: Protests that are peaceful and violent demonstrations The intensity can be measured by the number of demonstrations, riots, armed infringements and strikes within a year Social Unrest: A Risk Perspective OECD 2012 An expression of collective social dissatisfaction with the political system Can take the form of conventional (e.g. voting) and unconventional political participation (e.g. signing petitions, demonstrations, boycotts, blockades and wild strikes) Whether regarded as unconventional is dependent on time period, location and culture Is a gradual process and happens in steps Source: http://planet-risk.org/index.php/pr/ article/download/36/85 Every step leads to a greater probability of escalation towards more unconventional forms of protest Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 21
LADDER OF SOCIAL UNREST Possible De-escalation Degree of social unrest Possible De-escalation Communication of dissatisfaction Possible De-escalation Organisation Mobilisation Acts of political violence Type of Action Source: OECD; EU-VRi Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 22
DRIVERS, DEGREES AND INDICATORS According to Renn et al (2012) drivers are also stage based and can be categorised as follows: Stage 1: relative deprivation of resources (gap between expectations and perceived reality) and the social amplification processes within society Stage 2: availability of organisational capacity to form protest groups Stage 3: Resources and opportunities for mobilising people Stage 4: Sufficient frustration to legitimise violence Potential for de-escalating social unrest: 1. Monitoring drivers (some of which may relate to the electoral process, some not) 2. Early inclusion of protest movement organisations in policy articulation and decision making (dialogue spaces) 3. Involvement of neutral/highly respected institutions/individuals for facilitating and agreement between protestors and public authorities. Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 23
POTENTIAL TRIGGERS FOR ESCALATION/DE-ESCALATION Dissatisfaction & Low level of trust High expectation of response Large enough group Low level of access to resources Highly motivated individuals Trust / distrust in official authorities Resonance of cause of action among total population Attitude of leaders towards violence (latent or patent tolerance of violence) Responsiveness to grievances Media interest in issue Police action/response Official response after violence erupted Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 24
DEVELOPING A FRAMEWORK TO MONITOR UNREST The OECD EU-Vri model is a useful basis for the development of an analytical framework of social unrest of which election related violence forms part. The South African local electorate appears to believe that voting helps and protest works : (Booysen 2007) Such a framework will help inform feasible policy options to help government role-players address social unrest, and manage its possible consequences. Seeing social unrest as a process of escalation it will be easier to identify the drivers and triggers. The framework needs to be adapted to the South African norms, values and political culture and tested to minimise arbitrary and subjective results. The framework will be a diagnostic tool as well as a tool that can identify triggers and drivers that can lead to escalation or de-escalation. The framework and the data is speculative and lack empirical verification but the data is being collected and analysed. At this stage, more robust data sources are required. Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 25
WAY FORWARD 1. Refinement of methodology and data processes 2. Automation of media tracking after completion of exploratory phase 3. Building of a broad monitoring network in addition to media reports 4. Building of closer relationships with stakeholders 5. Further in-depth analysis of the nature of forms and drivers of public violence 6. Further in-depth survey of triggers and contributing factors 7. Development of appropriate responses to public violence in partnership with government and other stakeholders 8. Advocacy of appropriate responses to be incorporated into appropriate policy 9. Comprehensive tracking of protests and election-related violence during the 2016 local government elections and beyond Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 26
CONTACT DETAILS www.issafrica.org/crimehub llancaster@issarica.org Copyright Institute for Security Studies 4 September 2014 27