UMR Omnibus Results May 211 The MMP Referendum Email: umr@umr.co.nz Website: www.umr.co.nz WELLINGTON 3 Collina Terrace Thorndon WELLINGTON 611 NEW ZEALAND Tel: +64 4 473 61 Fax: +64 4 472 31 AUCKLAND 11 Earle Street Parnell AUCKLAND 52 NEW ZEALAND Tel: +64 9 373 87 Fax: +64 9 373 874 SYDNEY Level One, Suite 5 332-342 Oxford Street SYDNEY NSW 222 AUSTRALIA Tel: +61 2 9386 1622 Fax: +61 2 9386 1633
Methodology This report is based on a telephone survey of a nationally representative sample of 7 New Zealanders aged 18 years or over. Fieldwork was conducted from 28 April 3 May 211 at UMR Research s national interview facility in Auckland. The margin of error for sample size of 7 for a % figure at the 95% confidence level is ± 3.6%. The first two questions in this module were the same as those which will be in the referendum on the electoral system to be held in conjunction with the 211 General Election. These questions were asked in the same way and in the same order as they will be in the referendum (with minor changes made because it was a telephone survey whereas voting is done on paper). An additional question was added to explore the appeal of a third option of retaining MMP but changing it. This will not be an option in the 211 referendum, but is relevant because Simon Power has said that New Zealanders will have the option of making changes to MMP even if they decide to retain the system. 2
Background This report is based on questions included in the UMR Nationwide Omnibus, a fortnightly telephone survey of a representative sample of n=7 New Zealanders aged 18 years or older. Fieldwork was conducted between April 28 th and May 3 rd 211. The margin of error for a % figure at the 95% confidence level is ±3.6% Results are tracked from the last time these questions were asked, in February 2. The first two questions in the module were the same as those which will be in the referendum on the electoral system to be held in conjunction with the 211 General Election. These questions were asked in the same way and in the same order as they will be in the referendum (with minor changes made because it was a telephone survey whereas voting is done on paper). An additional question was added to explore the appeal of a third option of retaining MMP but changing it. This will not be an option in the 211 referendum, but is relevant because Simon Power has said that New Zealanders will have the option of making changes to MMP even if they decide to retain the system. 3
Key findings Support for changing the electoral system has waned slightly over the last year. % now want to retain MMP (up 1% since February 2) while % want to switch to another system (down 2%). Support for retaining MMP is highest in Wellington (65%) and amongst under year olds (64%) and lowest amongst rural residents (38%) and over 6 year olds (%). When New Zealanders are given the third option of retaining MMP but making some changes to it there is still significant support for some sort of change to the electoral system. 34% want to retain MMP but make some changes (down 4%) 26% want to keep MMP as it is (up 3%) 34% want to change to another system altogether (up 2%). The old First Past the Post system is the clear leader amongst the four alternate systems which will be included in the referendum. % prefer First Past the Post, the system used for elections up until 1993. 17% like Single Transferable Vote (STV), the system used in Ireland and in Austalia s senate. 8% prefer Preferential Voting, the system used in Australia s lower house and, under its other name of Alternative Voting, the system rejected in a United Kingdom referendum last week. Just 3% support Supplementary Member, the system backed by Put MMP to the Vote Campaign and by Don Brash in 211 and John Key in 28. 32% cannot choose a system, and it seems likely that most people do not know very much about STV, Preferential Voting or Supplementary Member. 4
Support For The Referendum Do you think the current MMP voting system should be retained, or do you think we should change to another voting system? Feb 2 NOW 42% 9% 49% % % % Retain MMP Change voting system Unsure Base: All, n=7 5
Demographic comparisons Support for retaining MMP 7 6 2 7 6 Do you think the current MMP voting system should be retained, or do you think we should change to another voting system? PERCENT WANTING TO KEEP MMP 53 47 49 All Male Female Auckland Wellington Other North 64 52 47 53 65 47 51 55 47 Christ - church 53 38 Other South 56 48 Rural 54 2 All Under -44 45-59 6 years or older $Less than $15k $15-$25k $25-$k $-$k $-$7k Personal Income More than $7k Māori 6
Preferred Alternative System Regardless of your previous answer if there was a change to another voting system, which one of the following voting systems would you choose? The First Past the Post System, or FPP 37% % The Single Transferable Vote system, or STV 17% 18% The Preferential Voting System* The Supplementary Member system 3% 4% 8% 12% May.211 Feb.2 Unsure/ None/ Don t know enough 29% 32% Base: All, n=7 7
Demographic comparisons Support for FPP as alternative 6 Regardless of your previous answer if there was a change to another voting system, which one of the following voting systems would you choose? PERCENT CHOOSING FPP AS PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE 55 41 34 41 42 46 45 2 All Male Female Auckland Wellington Other North Christ - church Other South Rural 6 41 44 49 43 45 36 43 38 37 25 2 All Under -44 45-59 6 years or older $Less $15-$25k $25-$k $-$k $-$7k More than than $15k $7k Personal Income Māori 8
How About Changing MMP? And which of the following three options would you prefer? a) Retaining the current MMP system b) Retaining MMP but make some changes c) Changing to another voting system all together Retain the current MMP system 23% 26% Retain MMP but make some changes 34% % Change to another voting system all together Unsure/ Depends 6% 6% 32% 34% May.211 Feb.2 Base: All, n=7 9
Demographic comparisons Support for retaining MMP with some changes 45 35 25 2 15 5 Regardless of your previous answer if there was a change to another voting system, which one of the following voting systems would you choose? PERCENT WANTING TO RETAIN MMP BUT MAKE SOME CHANGES 34 31 38 All Male Female Auckland Wellington Other North 36 39 33 35 Christ - church 31 Other South 34 Rural 45 35 25 2 15 5 34 44 All Under -44 45-59 6 years or older 38 28 32 $Less than $15k 36 38 $15-$25k Personal $25-$k Income $-$k $-$7k More than $7k 35 33 47 Māori