CONFLICT BRIEFING NOTES CONFLICT BRIEFING NO. 9, October 01 KEY MESSAGES PAGE 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. CONTEXT ANALYSIS & CONFLICT PROFILE POLITICAL SOCIAL 3 ECONOMIC 3 3. NATIONAL CONTEXT.. UPDATE ON REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE TO JAS HUMANITARIAN UPDATE ON INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS INCREASED FEMALE SUICIDE BOMB ATTACKS POSES RISKS TO WOMEN CORPORAL PUNISHMENT IN PUBLIC FEMALE SCHOOLS RAISES HUMAN RIGHTS CONCERNS UPDATE ON RADIO BIAFRA. IMPLICATIONS FOR PROGRAMMING IN NSRP TARGET STATES *Disclaimer: The contents of this briefing note do not necessarily reflect the views of DFID or the UK Government. ** All reports are based on anonymous NSRP sources.
Executive Summary Sustained counter-insurgency efforts by the Nigerian Armed Forces yielded desired results as evidenced by the reduction in the frequency and magnitude of attacks by Jamaatu Ahlis-Sunna Liddaawati Wal Jihad (JAS). Many more JAS members also reportedly surrendered to and/or were captured by security forces. There are also indications that pressures on JAS have seriously affected its ability to recruit new fighters and mobilise resources to sustain the insurgency. While the situation in the North East was stabilizing, there were increasing tensions in South East and South South Nigeria over pro-biafra restoration mobilizations. This followed the arrest of Mr. Nnamdi Kanu, the suspected mastermind of Radio Biafra that had over the past year run illegal broadcast station seeking to mobilize public support for Biafra. The arrest of Mr. Kanu triggered protest marches across major cities in the South East and South South Nigeria. There are fears that mobilizations by security forces to stop the protests might result in violent confrontations. There were also growing tensions following the announcement of the verdicts of some of the Governorship and State House of Assembly Elections Petition Tribunals. The verdicts raised controversies and protests in Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Taraba where the tribunals cancelled elections. The protests in Taraba State turned violent leading to the death of some residents. Some of the demonstrations around the verdicts arose from allegations of politicization of state institutions (security and judiciary) made by the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) against the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC). The parties also engaged in heated debates over the announcement of the lists of persons nominated to serve as federal ministers as the opposition PDP opposed the nomination of some candidates. Context Analysis/Conflict Profile Political The announcement of the much-anticipated ministerial list generated controversies over the suitability of some nominees. The most controversial nomination was that of Mr. Rotimi Amaechi former governor of Rivers State. The PDP Senators strongly opposed the confirmation of Amaechi over a petition on his alleged involvement in corrupt practices. The recent judgements of state elections petition tribunals have attracted mixed reactions in affected states. While some states witnessed widespread protests others experienced calm after the tribunal verdicts. The dismissal of the petition contesting the election of governors in Delta, Kaduna, Plateau and Yobe states did not attract any major protests. Conversely, the Rivers State Elections Petition Tribunal's judgement nullifying Governor Nyesome Wike's election into office has created tensions in Rivers state even as politicians from both parties have begun jostling anew for voter's support ahead of the planned rerun. With the verdicts of elections petition tribunals, several state governments have now settled down to the demands of governance within their respective domains. Governors Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta state and Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna state have resumed efforts at developing their respective states in the wake of the State Elections Tribunal's confirmation of their election as Governors of their respective states. Political appointments were a source of tensions across the country. For instance, recent appointments by Governor Ganduje of Kano state have reportedly worsened the strained relationship between the incumbent and his predecessor Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso. The increasingly heated verbal wars between supporters of both politicians followed recent appointments by Ganduje which were deemed to be aimed at undermining the political influence of Kwankwaso in the state. The nomination of Barrister Solomon Dalung from Sabon Gida in Langtang South LGA has caused stirs in political circles in Plateau State, where some elites resent his closeness to dominant Hausa and Fulani political elites.
Social The counter insurgency efforts yielded more results. The Nigerian Air Force reportedly launched 1,8 air raids between July and October 01 in support of ground troops. Scores of JAS members are reported to have surrendered in October. This has increased the number of disenchanted JAS fighters who are laying down their arms and seeking re-integration and rehabilitation. The arrest of persons that supplied fuel, food and weapons to JAS has reportedly affected its capacity to sustain the insurgency. Military sources indicate that some insurgents are carrying empty guns and wielding sticks as weapons. However, JAS insurgents continued to carry out attacks. Multiple bomb blasts at Buhari Housing Estate in Damaturu left 16 persons dead and 10 others injured. Many worshippers were also killed during suicide bomb attacks on mosques at the outskirts of Maiduguri. The reduced frequency of attacks however, has contributed to resumption of social and economic activities in the North East. Violence linked to cattle grazing and theft persisted in Kano, Kaduna and Plateau states. Cases of cattle rustling were recorded in Sumaila and Doguwa LGA of Kano State and Jos North LGA in Plateau State. The outbreak of incidents of communal violence in Barkin Ladi, Riyom, Mangu and Jos South LGAs resulted in deaths and destruction of properties. However, improved security surveillance and intelligence sharing led to arrest of the some of the armed bandits. For instance, the security agencies arrested 7 persons suspected to be involved in cattle rustling and armed robbery in Sumaila LGA, Kano State. The security operatives in Plateau state arrested suspected militants and armed bandits and recovered cattle and rams. There were more reports of cases of armed robbery and kidnapping in the Niger Delta. Politically motivated kidnappings and assassinations increased in Bayelsa State ahead of the December gubernatorial election. Activities of rival religious sects remained a source of tensions in some states. Attempts by security operatives to stop the opening of a Jummat (Friday) mosque in Kofar Wambai area of Kano to prevent clashes between Khadirriyah and Tijjaniyah followers reportedly led to clashes, assault and arrest of some worshippers. Similarly, several persons were injured during violent clashes between some Shiite youth and youth of Izalatul Bidiah Waiqamatul Sunnah sect in Kano. The clashes resulted in the destruction of the residence of Mallam Idris, leader of the Shiite movement. The conflict reportedly started after comments and heated rejoinders on the proper way to celebrate Tashura and Ashura days that were posted on facebook turned violent. The efforts of the police to restore public order through the arrests and prosecution of the suspects failed as supporters of the affected youths organized reprisal attacks, which left about persons injured. This development further underscores the growing influence of social media and the potentially dangerous effects it has on everyday behaviours of adherents. Economic The introduction of the Treasury Single Account (TSA) policy by the federal government has closed a major source of diversion of public funds in government. Banks that previously made profits from deposits from government institutions have faced challenging times as a result of the policy. Some of the banks have sacked some staff to cope with the reduced inflows and profits. Economic activities across the states improved relatively as Civil Servants received arrears of salary following disbursements of the bail-out funds guaranteed by the Federal Government. The approval of the N0bn bailout loan from the Central Bank of Nigeria by Kano State House of Assembly to enable the state government pay salary areas, settle pension bills and finance local government council capital projects has generated controversies as some stakeholders opine that the state is already heavily indebted. Plateau State also secured approval to access N10billion loan to complete pending development projects in the state but many workers have not been paid and this has adversely affected business activities. 3
Late October, most of the streets and residential areas in Kaduna state were visibly littered with refuse. This was the result of the commencement of a strike action by contractors handling the clearing of refuse in the state to press home their demand for the payment of six months areas. The Kaduna State Government however transformed the brewing crises into a youth empowerment opportunity by engaging unemployed youth and students alongside the Kaduna State Environmental Protection Agency to clear the refuse and restore environmental sanity to affected areas. The growing occurrences of cattle rustling and armed robbery in Kano state has adversely affected socioeconomic activities in the state even as business activities in village markets were reduced to a bare minimal in communities were armed robbery and cattle rustling have assumed alarming frequency. The closure of some filling stations by oil marketers in mid-october resulted in artificial fuel scarcity which impacted negatively on the movement of goods and commodities across the state. In Plateau state, the environmental task force have maintained physical presence at Terminus Jos, which was the site of some bomb attacks to stop street trading. This has severely limited trading activities which are usually concentrated around the Terminus area in the city of Jos. National Context Update on Regional and International Response to JAS A recent video released by JAS with an un-identified speaker has raised questions about claims by the Nigerian Military that some members of the group have surrendered to Nigerian troops. The man who spoke in both Arabic and heavily accented Hausa also denied claims that hundreds of abducted women and children had been rescued by the troops. The spokesperson of the group said the military was used propaganda to boost its image. Facing pressures from Nigerian Armed Forces, the JAS have resorted to more bombing attacks on neighbouring countries. Chadian Authorities confirmed that five female suicide bombers launched attacks at two sites near the Nigerian border, killing 33 persons. Chadian authorities also reported a clash between JAS fighters and Chadian soldiers near Lake Chad resulting in the death of 11 soldiers and 17 militants. Similar attacks by female suicide bombers in Cameroon's far North region have left 38 persons injured. President Barack Obama announced deployment of soldiers to Cameroon to support counter-insurgency efforts. The United States President stated that the 300 strong force would remain in Cameroon until they are "no longer needed" and would conduct airborne intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance operations in the region. The US troops have since commenced drone surveillance over Sambisa forest. Humanitarian update on Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) The Borno State Emergency Management Agency (BOSEMA) and the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) started arrangements to relocate some Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), from Maiduguri to their communities. The plans involve the construction of camps in Bama, Monguno, Dikwa, Konduga and Damboa to ease the relocation of the displaced persons from Maiduguri. The conditions remained challenging in IDP camps. For instance, about 3,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) camped in Kuka Reta town are living in precarious conditions as the camp reportedly lacks food, portable water and medication. The situation of the IDPs has attracted the attention of NGOs, such as Muslim Rights Concern (MURIC), which released a statement condemning 'culpable negligence' on the part of Nigerian authorities.
Local sources also indicate that some communities have been displaced as a result of counter-insurgency initiatives. For instance, 30, 000 persons were displaced when the security forces reportedly asked residents of several villages in Gujba and Gulani Local Government areas to vacate their residences to give the military clear access to JAS camps in the LGA. Movement of the IDPs to the camp in Kukareta in Damaturu LGA has strained supplies in the camp which was previously housing over 10, 000 IDP's resulting in inadequate food and water supply. Increased Female Suicide Bomb Attacks Posses Risks to Women Nigerian soldiers are reported to have shot dead a suspected female suicide bomber outside the Maimalari barracks thereby detonating explosives concealed in her handbag. The deceased reportedly approached th the gates of the barracks, which houses the 7 Division of the Nigerian Army against instructions of security guards. Increasing use of female suicide bombers has exposed women to being prime targets of body searches. This has affected the socio-economic activities of women who are increasing afraid of leaving their homes for their businesses and social activities. Some communities like Dala and Bulumkuttu in Maiduguri have banned women from coming out in the evenings further undermining the freedom of movement and association of women and girls. Corporal Punishment in Public Female Schools raises human rights concerns The growing incidence of brutal punishment by principals in some public girls' secondary schools has attracted serious concerns and condemnations from parents, students and human rights activists alike. Some female students were recently reported to have been cruelly subjected to corporal punishment. The Principal of Fatima Muhammad Girls Secondary School, Gyadi-Gyadi in Kano state was accused of maltreating some female students by cutting their hair for purportedly failing to adhere to the mandatory prescribed hairstyle of the school. The principal was reported to have given all offenders the option of either submitting themselves for a haircut or face dismissal. The students and their alarmed parents have since called on the state government to intervene in the matter. In a similar case, the principal of Hassana Sufi Girls Secondary School in Kofar Nasarawa of Kano state is reported to have asked students to stay under the sun and denied them food and water for six consecutive hours for leaving the assembly ground before they were asked to do so. Reports claim that one of the students went blind and many others fell ill following the punishment. These incidences are coming at a time when authorities are keen to promote girl child education leading to fears that such occurrences may adversely affect girl child enrolment in Northern Nigeria. Update on Radio Biafra The arrest and detention of Nnamdi Kanu, director, Radio Biafra, by operatives of the Department of State Services (DSS), on his return from the United Kingdom in Lagos has resulted in tensions across several states in Nigeria's South East. The Indigenous People of Biafra (IPoB) leader was taken to Abuja and arraigned in a magistrate court where his inability to meet bail conditions has occasioned his detention in police custody. His rumoured ordeal in detention has sparked protests in Port Harcourt, Aba and other South Eastern cities where the group maintains a strong following. It may be recalled that broadcasts from the illegal Radio Biafra hit the airwaves early 01 from unidentified locations reportedly mobilizing its listeners with secessionist narratives. Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the Northeast Humanitarian programmes operating or planning to operate in the North East are likely to be impacted by mass migrations owing to military attacks on JAS strong holds in the region. As of October 01, it is reported that the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) and the Borno State SEMA will facilitate the closing of IDP camps in Maiduguri and the relocation of displaced persons to their home communities. Plans are underway to provide camps in these communities as an interim measure in view of the level of damage occasioned by JAS attacks. This development will free up the present IDP camp structures for resumption of school activities in relevant areas.
Counter-insurgency activities amidst periodic JAS attacks will continue to pose security challenges in the North East. For programmes working on humanitarian assistance, it is important to ensure adequate medical care is provided for IDPs particularly in camps like that of Kukareta in Damaturu LGA reported to be in dire need of supplies. Special attention to Yobe state in relation to Borno may redress the lingering issue of imbalance in provisioning between the two states. With the frequent movement of IDPs across the region, it is also important to implement programmes with a high degree of conflict sensitivity, conducting frequent context analysis to remain up-to-date with the repeated movement of IDPs in the region. This would also facilitate the development of flexible implementation plans to respond appropriately to the constantly changing context in the region. Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in Kano The clash occasioned by security operatives' attempt to prevent the opening of a Jummat (Friday) mosque in Kofar Wambai has generated tensions in the state. Reports suggest that the inter-faith rivalry for control between Tijanniya and Khadiriyyah believers will present a challenge to overall peace and security in the state, especially if retaliatory attacks on mosques such as the Na Khaulaha Jummat occur. For all programmes working on inter-religious dialogue and overall social cohesion in Kano state, incidents of this nature may present challenges to the overall outcome-level indicators of success on the programme. It is recommended that such programmes remain in close contact with governance and security sector reform programmes and reflect the necessary adjustments to their logframes to reflect escalating conflict dynamics in relevant communities. Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the Middle Belt The Plateau State government task force has maintained efforts to clear the Jos city centre of street trading. The desired result has continued to elude the government due to the lack of alternative markets in the city centre. It is recommended that programmes working with economic growth and governance consider supporting advocacy on the provision of alternative markets in equally attractive areas, or the rebuilding of the burned main market. Communal violence has continued unabated in several villages across Plateau State. It is recommended that programmes working on security sector reform, governance, and peacebuilding in the Middle Belt region maintain close monitoring of the political, economic and social dynamics as these can impact levels of community trust and economic viability of businesses in the region. Governance Programmes should explore supporting the security task force by building its capacity on alternative dispute resolution to enhance credibility among focal communities thereby facilitating fruitful community policing efforts to combat and prevent violent conflict in the state. Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the Niger Delta Programmes working in the Niger delta should continue to adapt their protocols and programming to respond to persistent incidents of armed robbery and kidnapping especially towards the end of the year usually associated with rising crime rates. Programmes should anticipate likely protests over the keenly contested elections in Bayelsa states. Similarly, tensions resulting from the arrest of the Radio Biafra operator may impact peace and security in relevant South South and South Eastern states. Government and security sector programmes should also consider engagement with the security services on riot management to facilitate early resolution of protests spreading across the region as a result of the arrest. 6