Democracy Corps June Survey: Grim Stability Will Require Race-by-Race Fight

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 20101 July 8, 2010 Democracy Corps June Survey: Grim Stability Will Require Race-by-Race Fight

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 2 Methodology This presentation is based primarily on a national survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps. The survey was of 1,001 2008 voters and conducted June 19-22, 2010. Margin of error: 3.1 percentage points. All data shown reflects results from 867 likely 2010 voters (866 unweighted; margin of error of 3.1 percentage points) unless otherwise noted.

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 3 The political environment Page 3 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 4 Voters increasingly pessimistic about the direction of the country Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? 2006 55 Right direction 2006 Iraq surge Wrong track 2008 Financial Crisis 2009 2008 Election 63 67 64 66 66 66 71 70 72 68 73 75 78 8085 Election 62 63 69 63 58 61 50 46 50 Health Care Address 55 2010 58 58 62 62 5759 43 41 37 37 34 39 35 36 30 31 28 28 28 28 25 25 23 25 23 22 23 22 23 21 17 15 14 34 28 33 31 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Net -18-33 -42-36 -31-35-24-41-43-41-48-47 -35-47-50-45 -52-58-63-66 -75-33-11-3 -9-18 -23-22 -34-24-25-31 Difference 10 *Note: From full sample of 2008 voters, based on research for Citizen Opinion

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 5 Thermometers: Republicans now more favorable than Democrats Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Therm. Mean Warm - Cool Cool Warm Barack Obama 42 47 50.7 +5 Democratic House Incumbent* 33 40 52.7 +7 Republican House Incumbent* 23 40 56.6 +17 Democratic Party 48 37 43.3-11 Republican Party 42 35 46.0-7 Democratic Congress 50 34 40.7-16 Republicans in Congress 44 30 43.4-14 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 *Note: Incumbent names were inserted for landline sample. Generic identifier was used for cell sample.

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 6 Thermometer ratings of issues and people Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Therm. Mean Warm - Cool Cool Warm The state of your personal finances 25 53 57.9 +28 The N.R.A. 30 51 57.3 +21 Pro-life, anti-abortion groups 35 42 52.4 +7 Elena Kagan 27 24 45.4-3 National news networks ABC, CBS, NBC 43 35 45.2-8 Big corporations 42 30 44.7-12 The new health care reform law 49 33 38.7-16 Gay marriage 52 28 37.6-24 The state of the economy 63 21 35.1-42 70 50 30 10 10 30 50 70

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 7 Thermometers: Republicans emerge with advantage Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold. 2008 Election 63 62 Inauguration 68 65 62 63 63 62 61 60 Barack Obam a Democratic Party Democratic Congress Republican Party Republicans in Congress 56 59 52 53 52 50 53 52 51 50 48 48 46 46 43 4445 42 43 45 51 49 46 49 48 42 46 45 44 45 43 41 43 42 52 52 50 51 49 48 47 44 43 44 44 43 43 43 56 47 46 43 43 57 55 54 49 47 46 45 47 44 44 44 44 43 44 42 53 45 44 43 41 51 51 51 50 45 44 44 44 44 44 42 42 43 44 41 41 42 41 41 40 51 46 43 43 41 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 *Note: Data represents MEAN ratings, likely 2010 voters.

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 8 Thermometer: Democratic incumbents Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Favorability Mean Total Warm Very Warm Inauguration 62 60 59 51 47 49 49 44 62 59 58 58 48 40 61 60 60 46 44 47 57 57 56 54 54 53 54 54 51 45 41 40 41 39 39 41 40 38 53 40 30 26 26 27 23 26 20 25 25 27 22 28 21 23 24 22 23 22 22 24 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 *Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys conducted since the 2008 election. The applicable incumbent name was inserted without party identification.

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 9 Thermometer: Republican incumbents Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Favorability Mean Total Warm Very Warm Inauguration 57 58 54 57 60 60 59 58 57 59 58 56 58 55 55 57 56 55 57 43 41 43 43 39 47 46 40 41 43 45 44 40 37 43 42 50 35 41 41 40 25 23 24 25 20 22 29 20 21 20 21 22 21 20 23 22 19 22 22 23 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 *Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys conducted since the 2008 election. The applicable incumbent name was inserted without party identification.

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 Republicans lead increased in congressional races I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)? Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate 48 50 46 51 43 47 46 47 46 47 45 44 46 48 43 40 44 40 42 43 42 45 45 44 43 43 43 42 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Net Difference +5 +10 +2 +11-1 +4 +4 +2-1 -3 +1-2 -3-6 *Note: Incumbent names were inserted preceded by party identification with the generic the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate inserted for the opposition. For the cell phone sample and open seat districts, both candidates were generic.

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 11 Impact of loss of drop-off voters is significant in congressional vote I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)? Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Dem. +8 Rep. +3 Rep. +6 Dem. +14 53 45 43 46 48 49 42 37 41 42 37 36 35 30 Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate 2008 Actual Results 2010 Vote Among 2008 Voters 2010 Vote Among Likely Voters 2010 Vote Among Drop-off Voters *Note: Results reflect full sample of 2008 voters includes those who voted in 2008 but who are not likely to vote in 2010. Actual results based on secretary of state reports.

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 12 Congressional voter choice scale Democrat Not Democrat 39 16 18 3 4 11 3 6 Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable Republican Not Republican 32 21 19 3 5 11 5 4 Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 13 Democrats trailing on economic issues Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. If you do not know, just tell me and we will move on to the next item. Dems. Reps. Republicans much better Democrats much better Energy and the environment 34 18 25 44 +10 Raising middle class living standards 40 21 23 43 +3 Being on your side 40 22 26 39-1 Jobs and employment 42 24 23 38-4 The economy 44 24 22 39-5 Helping small business succeed 45 27 18 40-5 Taxes 46 25 18 36-10 Government spending 44 21 18 33-11 Federal budget deficit 43 23 16 30-13 100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 14 Regressions shows handling of economic measures predictive of vote Congressional Vote by Better Job SPLIT A Congressional Vote by Better Job SPLIT B Std. Err z P > z 95% conf interval. Odds Ratio Party I.D. 1.0603 8.1 0 3.494 3.494 5.207 Better Job: Raise middle class standards 0.3402 4.55 0 1.523 1.523 2.093 Better Job: Jobs/Employment 0.2905 2.34 0.019 1.073 1.073 1.550 Better Job: Federal budget 0.2367 2.25 0.024 1.049 1.049 1.445 N = 500, R-Square =.3945 Std. Err z P > z 95% conf interval. Odds Ratio Party I.D. 1.4229 8.09 0 4.017 9.780 6.268 Better Job: Economy 0.3137 3.99 0 1.393 2.644 1.919 Better Job: Helping small business 0.2528 4 0 1.338 2.342 1.770 N = 501, R-Square =.3914

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 15 President Obama s standing Page 15 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 16 Obama job approval remains constant in different issue areas Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Barack Obama as president/the way that Barack Obama is handling the economy/the way that Barack Obama is handling the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico? Strongly Approve Strongly Disapprove +6 +6 +7 45 51 45 51 43 50 38 41 40 27 23 20 Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Overall Job Economy Oil Spill

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 17 Economy drives approval of president s performance Obama Approval by Better Job Split A Std. Err z P > z 95% conf interval. Odds Ratio Better Job: Being on your side 0.5141 4.8 0 1.757 4.766 2.592 Thermometer: Economy 0.2989 5.67 0 1.664 3.347 2.178 Party I.D. 0.3917 3.77 0 1.412 3.347 2.052 Unemployed 0.4356 2.55 0.011 1.150 2.880 1.831 Better Job: Economy 0.3354 3.05 0.002 1.229 2.132 1.778 Thermometer: Personal finances 0.1601 2.47 0.014 1.062 2.161 1.342 Economy bottomed out 0.1293 2.95 0.003 1.007 1.868 1.331 N = 501, R-Square =.3742

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 18 Economy drives approval of president s performance Obama Approval by Better Job Split B Std. Err z P > z 95% conf interval. Odds Ratio Party I.D. 0.5101 4.72 0 1.732 3.783 2.560 Better Job: Raise middle class standards 0.3634 3.67 0 1.371 2.283 1.969 Thermometer: Economy 0.2696 4.67 0 1.462 2.512 1.924 Better Job: Jobs/Employment 0.2765 2.95 0.003 1.180 2.268 1.636 Better Job: Federal budget 0.2548 3.15 0.002 1.203 2.216 1.633 N = 500, R-Square =.3582

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 19 Obama approval on economy stabilizes as job market growth occurs Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling the economy? 60 Total approve First net job growth: 14,000 Total disapprove 290,000 39,000 57 431,000 208,000 51 52 51 38 42 44 44 45 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Net +22-15 -7-8 Difference *Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys conducted since May 2009. -6

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 Majority disapprove of Obama s job performance Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Total Approve Total Disapprove Strongly Approve Strongly Disapprove Inauguration 53 19 57 39 39 19 58 57 58 58 57 55 55 4242 37 41 55 39 38 38 37 36 27 34 35 35 32 33 20 28 27 26 27 27 28 21 53 50 51 42 45 43 34 36 37 33 34 32 48 46 37 33 48 48 36 28 48 47 37 27 49 46 39 28 48 46 40 30 49 46 41 32 51 45 40 27 14 13 15 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys since the 2008 election. Before inauguration, question read: Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Barack Obama as president-elect? Data represents likely 2010 voters.

Reasons why approve: open-ended July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 21 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? What are you thinking of when you say you approve of Obama s job as president? Positive Obama General support Improvement Concern for citizens over politicians Inclusive Positive Policies Economy Health Care Oil Spill Gay Rights Negative Policies Health Care Fiscal irresponsibility Oil Spill Jobs/Unemployment Negative Obama General negative Other/DK/Ref Other DK/Ref Total 70 60 8 4 2 24 14 12 6 1 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 12 10 2

Reasons why disapprove: open-ended July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 22 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? What are you thinking of when you say you disapprove of Obama s job as president? Negative Policies Fiscal irresponsibility Health Care Oil Spill Immigration Jobs/unemployment Tax plan Moral issues Foreign policy Negative Obama General negative Unkept promises Socialist/Communist Inexperienced Partisan Positive Obama General support Other/DK/Ref Other DK/Ref Total 59 26 25 12 8 6 3 2 2 51 33 8 8 7 2 1 1 13 12 1

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 23 Verbatim disapproval responses show health care, jobs predominant Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? What are you thinking of when you say you disapprove of Obama s job as president?

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 24 Positive presidential attributes Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well or not well at all Change in well* Not well at all Very well Strong leader 49 29 24 49-13 Offers a hopeful vision of the future 49 31 26 49 Shares your values 51 34 21 46-17 On your side 52 32 22 45-5 Has realistic solutions to country s problems 55 34 17 43-9 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 *Note: Change is calculated based on the last time the question was polled in a Democracy Corps survey.

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 25 Negative presidential attributes Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well or not well at all. Change in well* Not well at all Very well A big spender 34 61 13 45 0 Too liberal 38 17 35 +4 57 A socialist 39 25 33 55 50 25 0 25 50 *Note: Change is calculated based on the last time the question was polled in a Democracy Corps survey.

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 26 Obama avert crisis or make worse: unchanged First Statement: President Obama's economic policies helped avert an even worse crisis, and are laying the foundation for our eventual economic recovery. Second Statement: President Obama's economic policies have run up a record federal deficit while failing to end the recession or slow the record pace of job losses. Averted worse crisis Record deficit, not end recession First net job growth: 14,000 39,000 230,000 290,000 431,000 48 50 49 48 51 50 49 45 44 45 45 43 44 45 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 1 st 2 nd Net Difference -3-6 -4-3 -8-6 -4

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 27 Independents: Obama s policies were not conducive towards recovery Now I m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First Statement: President Obama's economic Second Statement: President Obama's policies helped avert an even worse crisis, and economic policies have run up a record federal are laying the foundation for our eventual deficit while failing to end the recession or slow economic recovery. the record pace of job losses. First statement strongly Second statement strongly +4 +60 +14 +65 76 82 45 33 49 30 62 16 11 38 22 52 42 17 10 75 Avert crisis Run up deficit Avert crisis Run up deficit Avert crisis Run up deficit Avert crisis Run up deficit Total Democrats Independents Republicans

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 28 Bush continues to be held more responsible for the economy First Statement: Former President Bush is more responsible for the problems with the economy. Second Statement: President Obama is more responsible for the problems with the economy. 56 Bush more responsible Obama more responsible 55 First net job growth: 14,000 57 39,000 230,000 51 290,000 48 431,000 49 51 32 31 30 34 36 37 36 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 1 st 2 nd Net Difference -24-24 -27-17 -12-12 -15

Independents: Bush is more culpable for economic problems Now I m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 29 First Statement: Former President Bush is more responsible for the problems with the economy. Second Statement: President Obama is more responsible for the problems with the economy. First statement strongly Second statement strongly +15 +66 +18 +43 81 51 78 52 61 45 36 43 34 47 30 15 31 18 14 12 Bush more Obama more Bush more Obama more Bush more Obama more Bush more Obama more Total Democrats Independents Republicans

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 30 Obama/Dems: for ordinary people or Wall Street: no change First Statement: Obama and the Democrats are more concerned with creating jobs for ordinary Americans. Second Statement: Obama and the Democrats are more concerned with bailing out Wall Street. More concerned with jobs More concerned with bailouts First net job growth: 14,000 39,000 230,000 290,000 431,000 49 46 44 45 45 41 44 43 44 45 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 1 st 2 nd Net Difference -8-2 +1 + 1 0

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 31 Independents: Obama/Dems more for Wall Street than Main Now I m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First Statement: Obama and the Democrats are more concerned with creating jobs for ordinary Americans. Second Statement: Obama and the Democrats are more concerned with bailing out Wall Street. First statement strongly Second statement strongly Tied +60 +9 +57 77 72 45 35 45 38 69 17 40 28 49 41 15 60 14 Create jobs Wall Street Create jobs Wall Street Create jobs Wall Street Create jobs Wall Street Total Democrats Independents Republicans

Approval of Obama s handling of spill follows partisan trends Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico? July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 32 Strongly disapprove Strongly approve Total 50 40 20 43 Democrats 16 8 37 77 Independents 59 46 17 32 Republicans 79 68 16 100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 33 Open-end disapproval responses to Obama s handling of oil spill Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico? Why do you say that? Ineffective Slow to act Done nothing Not doing well Negative Obama General negative situation Bad Leadership Lack of understanding Refused foreign help Doesn t have enough leadership Political opportunity Doesn t care about LA No planning Blame General Blame Alternative energy/solar energy/wind energy Need to go green/helps our climate Other/DK/Ref Other DK/Ref Total 66 27 24 13 5 4 38 13 11 5 5 5 4 3 4 2 2 14 11 3

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 34 Verbatim disapproval responses to Obama s handling of oil spill Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico? Why do you say that?

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 35 The economy Page 35 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Economic optimism decreasing after seeing marginal gains July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 36 Now, thinking about the nation s economy, do you believe the economy has already bottomed out and is starting to improve, is at the bottom but is not yet getting any better or has not yet bottomed out and will still get worse? At bottom Already improving Will get w orse 37 35 Total Seen Worst: 63 39,000 New Jobs First net job growth: 14,000 208,000 290,000 431,000 45 43 40 38 36 31 32 29 33 27 40 34 25 26 26 28 27 20 22 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 *Note: Based on research for Citizen Opinion. Data prior to March 2010 from Democracy Corps surveys. Sample is of total 2008 voters.

National economic indicator: state of the economy 77 79 Warm 79 79 78 Cool 71 67 65 66 66 65 61 64 64 72 70 July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 37 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. The state of the economy 2008 Election Passage of Recovery Act First net job growth: 14,000 208,000 431,000 60 63 63 12 9 8 9 8 13 15 15 16 16 21 17 19 19 13 13 23 20 21 Net Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Difference -65-70 -71-70 -70-58 -52-50 -50-50 -48-40 -45-45 -59-57 -37-43 -42 *Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys conducted since the 2008 election. Sample is of total 2008 voters. Based on research for Citizen Opinion.

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 38 Economic outlook much more pessimistic among Republicans Now, thinking about the nation s economy, do you believe the economy has already bottomed out and is starting to improve, is at the bottom but is not yet getting any better or has not yet bottomed out and will still get worse? 64 53 40 34 33 28 36 22 16 17 20 22 Starting to improve At bottom, not getting better Will still get worse Starting to improve At bottom, not getting better Will still get worse Starting to improve At bottom, not getting better Will still get worse Starting to improve At bottom, not getting better Will still get worse Total Democrats Independents Republicans

Don t jeopardize recovery or cast protest vote: remains static July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 39 First Statement: Looking at what is happening with the economy, I am leaning toward voting for the Democrats so we don't jeopardize the chance of an economic recovery. First net job growth: 14,000 For Dems, not jeopardize recovery For Reps, to protest economy direction 39,000 Second Statement: Looking at what is happening with the economy, I am leaning toward voting for the Republicans to protest the direction the economy is heading. 230,000 290,000 51 49 49 49 48 44 45 42 44 46 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 1 st 2 nd Net Difference -7-7 -4-5 -2

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 40 Independents amenable to casting protest vote First Statement: Looking at what is happening with the economy, I am leaning toward voting for the Democrats so we don't jeopardize the chance of an economic recovery. Second Statement: Looking at what is happening with the economy, I am leaning toward voting for the Republicans to protest the direction the economy is heading. First statement strongly Second statement strongly +2 +76 +14 +75 86 87 46 48 72 37 51 75 36 Dems to not jeopardize recovery Total 38 36 Reps to protest direction Dems to not jeopardize recovery 10 Reps to protest direction Democrats 23 Dems to not jeopardize recovery Reps to protest direction Independents 12 9 Dems to not jeopardize recovery Reps to protest direction Republicans

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 41 Tax cuts preferred over reinvestment Now I m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First Statement: The best way to improve our economy and create jobs is to invest more to put people to work, develop new industries, and help businesses grow in expanding, new areas. Second Statement: The best way to improve our economy and create jobs is to cut government spending and cut taxes so businesses can prosper and the private sector can start creating jobs. First statement strongly Second statement strongly +7 +34 +7 +52 43 33 50 42 63 51 29 22 41 27 48 38 23 18 75 67 Invest Tax cuts Invest Tax cuts Invest Tax cuts Invest Tax cuts Total Democrats Independents Republicans

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 42 Detrimental effects of the recession still being felt I'm going to read you a list of economic experiences some people have recently had. For each one, please tell me if you have directly experienced this in the last year, if your family has directly experienced this in the last year, or if someone you know well, like a friend, neighbor or co-worker, has experienced this or if no one you know well has experienced it. Impacted you Impacted family Impacted someone you know Loss of a job 13 25 26 64 Reduced wages or hours at work 14 25 22 61 Rejoined the job market and began to look for work again 12 24 24 60 Got a new job 8 26 23 57 Lost health insurance coverage 9 19 20 48 Fallen behind on mortgage payments or home was foreclosed on 5 8 22 35 *Note: From full sample of 2008 voters, based on research for Citizen Opinion 0 25 50 75

Real economic indicator: state of your personal finances July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 43 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. The state of your personal finances Warm Cool 47 First net job growth: 14,000 39,000 208,000 49 48 46 290,000 49 431,000 45 51 27 26 26 29 23 28 25 Net Difference Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 +20 +23 +22 +17 +26 +17 +26 *Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys conducted since November 2009. Data reflects total 2008 voters. Based on Research for Citizen Opinion.

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 44 Real economic indicator: job market and re-entry show gains I'm going to read you a list of economic experiences some people have recently had. For each one, please tell me if you have directly experienced this in the last year, if your family has directly experienced this in the last year, or if someone you know well, like a friend, neighbor or co-worker, has experienced this or if no one you know well has experienced it. Re-entered the job market Got a new job First net job growth: 14,000 39,000 208,000 290,000 431,000 39 34 35 33 36 31 27 30 28 34 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 *Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys conducted since January 2010. Data reflects the total of those who have felt a personal impact or an impact on someone in their family, and the sample is of total 2008 voters. Based on research for Citizen Opinion.

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 45 Real economic indicators: some gain on hours and mortgage payments I'm going to read you a list of economic experiences some people have recently had. For each one, please tell me if you have directly experienced this in the last year, if your family has directly experienced this in the last year, or if someone you know well, like a friend, neighbor or co-worker, has experienced this or if no one you know well has experienced it. Reduced wages or hours Lost health insurance Lost job Fallen behind on mortgage First net job growth: 14,000 40 39,000 208,000 290,000 43 37 431,000 42 39 36 22 39 27 37 24 38 26 38 28 16 19 19 16 13 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 *Note: Data from Democracy Corps and Citizen Opinion surveys conducted since January 2010. Data reflects those who have felt a personal impact or an impact on someone in their family. Based on research for Citizen Opinion

Recession real indicators for white non-college: real gains July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 46 I'm going to read you a list of economic experiences some people have recently had. For each one, please tell me if you have directly experienced this in the last year, if your family has directly experienced this in the last year, or if someone you know well, like a friend, neighbor or co-worker, has experienced this or if no one you know well has experienced it. First net job growth: 14,000 39 36 27 Reduced wages or hours Lost health insurance 39,000 230,000 290,000 44 42 37 32 30 30 Lost job Fallen behind on mortgage 431,000 46 40 32 38 37 29 17 22 17 19 14 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 *Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys conducted since January 2010. Data reflects the total of those who have felt a personal impact or an impact on someone in their family. Based on research for Citizen Opinion.

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 47 Recession real indicators: unmarried women, minority and young I'm going to read you a list of economic experiences some people have recently had. For each one, please tell me if you have directly experienced this in the last year, if your family has directly experienced this in the last year, or if someone you know well, like a friend, neighbor or co-worker, has experienced this or if no one you know well has experienced it. Reduced wages or hours Lost health insurance Lost job Fallen behind on mortgage First net job growth: 14,000 43 40 27 39,000 208,000 290,000 431,000 43 44 44 40 38 42 41 39 30 30 26 27 17 20 21 16 13 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 *Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys conducted since January 2010. Data reflects those who have felt a personal impact or an impact on someone in their family. The new American electorate refers to unmarried women, respondents under the age of 30, and minorities. Based on research for Citizen Opinion

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 48 Which party better on economic issues: Democrats remain behind Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. If you do not know, just tell me and we will move on to the next item. The economy Government spending The budget deficit +14 +9 +16 +5 +5 +9 39,000 First net job growth: 14,000 290,000 431,000 0-4 -12-7 +1-3 -7-15 -3-8 -11-1 -5-7 -11-13 -6-8 -16-3 -4-11 -13 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 *Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys conducted since March 2009. Shows Democrats Republicans net. Based on research for Citizen Opinion.

The real economic indicators: the new American electorate July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 49 I'm going to read you a list of economic experiences some people have recently had. For each one, please tell me if you have directly experienced this in the last year, if your family has directly experienced this in the last year, or if someone you know well, like a friend, neighbor or co-worker, has experienced this or if no one you know well has experienced it. Percent impacting you and your family 38 39 28 51 45 37 49 49 25 44 43 31 Lost job Reduced wages Total Lost health insurance Lost job Reduced wages Unmarried Women Lost health insurance Lost job Reduced wages Youth Lost health insurance Lost job Reduced wages Minorities Lost health insurance *Note: Data reflects those who have felt a personal impact or an impact on someone in their family. Based on research for Citizen Opinion

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 50 The real economic indicators: White non-college voters I'm going to read you a list of economic experiences some people have recently had. For each one, please tell me if you have directly experienced this in the last year, if your family has directly experienced this in the last year, or if someone you know well, like a friend, neighbor or co-worker, has experienced this or if no one you know well has experienced it. Percent impacting you and your family 38 39 37 38 45 51 28 29 26 32 30 30 Lost job Reduced wages Total Lost health insurance Lost job Reduced wages Lost health insurance Total White Non College Lost job Reduced wages Lost health insurance Younger White Non College Lost job Reduced wages Lost health insurance Older White Non College *Note: Data reflects those who have felt a personal impact or an impact on someone in their family. Based on research for Citizen Opinion

July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 51 www.greenbergresearch.com Washington, DC 10 G Street NE, Suite 500 Washington, DC 20002 Ph: +1 202 478 8300 Fax: +1 202 478 8301 London, UK 405 Carrington House, 6 Hertford Street London, UK W1J 7SU Buenos Aires, Argentina 25 de Mayo 611. Piso 4, Oficina 3 C1002ABM, Ciudad de Buenos Aires, Argentina Ph: +44 (0) 207 499 5204 Fax: +44 (0) 207 499 5284 Phone: +54 11 59175355 Page 51 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner