The 7 th China-ASEAN Think-Tank Strategic Dialogue Forum Nanning, China, 12-13 Sept 2014 AEC AND CHINA-ASEAN CONNECTIVITY : CASE STUDY OF CHINA S RAILWAY PLAN IN THE REGION Dr. Aksornsri Phanishsarn Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics Thammasat University Director of Thai-Chinese Strategic Research Center (TCRC) National Research Council of Thailand (NRCT) THAILAND Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 1
China-ASEAN Community of COMMON Destiny 2009sorn@gmail.com Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 2
ASEAN-China FTA (ACFTA) since 2010 ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in the year 2015 Economic Profiles of ASEAN Nations (2013) Source: www.asean.org/resources/2012-02-10-08-47-55/asean-statistics Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 3
Economic Potentials of ASEAN ASEAN Economic Community : AEC Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 4
AEC BY 2015 Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 5
AEC and Beyond 1. Single market, single production base 2. Free movement of skilled labors 3. Integrate with the global economy 4. Constructive engagement ASEAN-EU FTA ASEAN-Japan CEP ASEAN China FTA ASEAN India FTA AEC ASEAN South Korea FTA RCEP ASEAN Australia New Zealand FTA In pipeline Source: Bryan Cave (Thailand) Adapted from Department of Trade Negotiation, MOC RCEP: Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 6
IMPORTANCE OF ASEAN ASEAN = China s 3 rd largest trading partner ASEAN = 600 million consumers with higher and increasing income and purchasing power ASEAN s GDP > 1.86 trillion US$ ASEAN s Trade > 2 trillion US$ ASEAN s FDI > 76 billion US$ China is the largest trading partner of ASEAN. ASEAN is the third largest trading partner of China. Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 7
PROPORTION OF ASEAN AND THAILAND S TRADE WITH CHINA China is Thailand s largest trading partner since 2013. 2013 2012 2011 Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 8
China-ASEAN Trade Statistics Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 9
China-ASEAN Investment Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 10
China-ASEAN Tourism Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 11
ASEAN PLUS Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 12
: VIA LAO PDR Only Vietnam, Lao PDR and Myanmar share direct borders with China. Majority of trade share with China occurs with Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand whose main freight transportation t ti is via ocean shipping. China-ASEAN railway connectivity will significantly boost economic ties within the region. The 7 th China-ASEAN Think-Tank Strategic Dialogue Forum, Nanning, China, 12-13 Sept 2014 Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 13
CONCEPT OF RAILWAY LINKAGE BETWEEN CHINA AND ASEAN * The concept of railway linkage between China and ASEAN nations has been in place for over five decades. * The study of Trans-Asian Railway (TAR) project by ESCAP in 1996 for the Indo-China and ASEAN sub-region identified several routes, all of which linking Kunming and Singapore. * However, the Singapore-Kunming Rail Link or SKRL term had only begun to be used in the feasibility study by ASEAN in 1995 and by ADB through the GMS program. * Recently, China has been actively promoting the rail link, as it stands to gain from this connectivity both in terms of economic and strategic importance. * This move by China is likely to speed up the implementation, particularly the missing link in Lao PDR. The 7 th China-ASEAN Think-Tank Strategic Dialogue Forum, Nanning, China, 12-13 Sept 2014 Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 14
The Singapore-Kunming Rail Link or SKRL All routes link Kunming and Singapore and have a common section from Bangkok to Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. Case study of the SKRL route via Lao PDR. Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 15
Components of the SKRL Route via Lao PDR Route Section Status Route Length Track Gauge (km.) (mm.) PR China Kunming- Yuxi In operation 55 1435 Yuxi-Jinghong-Mohan Missing link 630 1435 Lao PDR Boten-Vientiane Vientiane-Tha Naleng Missing link Missing link 421 10 1435 1000 Thailand Nongkhai- Padang Besar In operation 1,644 1000 Malaysia& Singapore Padang Besar-Singapore In operation 943 1000 Sub Total In operation Missing link 2,642 1,061 Total 3,703 Remark: 1-Route length shown in the above table came from various sources. For links whose data is not available, route length is obtained from Google Map using highway distance between sections as indicative figure only. Actual length of these missing links will not be known until detailed design is carried out. 2-Track gauge for the missing link in Lao PDR is shown to be 1435 mm gauge which will provide continuity to Chinese railway. Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 16
CASE STUDY OF SKRL ROUTE VIA LAO PDR links four capitals and a number of major cities Total length 3,700 km. 2,642 km. in operation 1,061 km. missing link MoU China and Lao PDR in 2010 to build the 421 km. missing link in Laos Joint Venture (70:30) Standard gauge Chinese railway technology The 7 th China-ASEAN Think-Tank Strategic Dialogue Forum, Nanning, China, 12-13 Sept 2014 Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 17
Missing Link in Lao PDR Since the 2010 MoU, construction has not started. Changes in development scheme. China s representative had been changedfromministryofrailwaysto Ministry of Commerce. Change from a joint investment (China/Lao PDR) to a loan (by China to Lao PDR). In a process of negotiation on terms of loan. Missing Link in China No project commitments to construct this section in the near future, subject to development of new rail link in Lao PDR and railway development in northeastern part of Thailand. The 7 th China-ASEAN Think-Tank Strategic Dialogue Forum, Nanning, China, 12-13 Sept 2014 Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 18
The 421 km. missing link in Lao PDR cost about 7 billion US$ (GDP of Lao PDR is about 9 billion US$) Revenue generated from the railway service will likely to be small in comparison to a huge capital required. Significant benefits will be better access to Lao PDR s rich natural resources such as minerals and forestry reserves. Some forms of financial assistance from China may be required. The 7 th China-ASEAN Think-Tank Strategic Dialogue Forum, Nanning, China, 12-13 Sept 2014 Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 19
Railway alignment runs thru vast forestry reserve. Possible negative impact on environmental issue such as lost in natural habitat has to be minimized. Land acquisition and relocation of houses in the planned railway corridor, if done carefully can provide opportunity for better town planning. The 7 th China-ASEAN Think-Tank Strategic Dialogue Forum, Nanning, China, 12-13 Sept 2014 Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 20
Fortunately, China has more stable and close relations with the Laos Government. Construction of the railway of this scale requires large labor force of various skills. Lao PDR has low population density at 28 persons per square kilometers (6.5 million total population). Thousands of foreign workers in certain areas can outnumber local residents and may cause anxiety to some extent. A sensitive issue that the project contractor/developer has to handle carefully with local community. The 7 th China-ASEAN Think-Tank Strategic Dialogue Forum, Nanning, China, 12-13 Sept 2014 Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 21
Railway network in ASEAN is mainly meter gauge (1,000 mm.) The network in China is mainly standard gauge (1,435 mm.) The 7 th China-ASEAN Think-Tank Strategic Dialogue Forum, Nanning, China, 12-13 Sept 2014 Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 22
Agreement on rail access charge. International insurance has to be in placed especially for freight transport. Custom clearance and formality, immigration i and quarantine (CIQ) is another issue that could impede smooth operation of cross border train. The 7 th China-ASEAN Think-Tank Strategic Dialogue Forum, Nanning, China, 12-13 Sept 2014 Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 23
*ASEAN is geographically and strategically located as a major transport route in the world. *With upcoming AEC in 2015, China tends to benefit from a closer connectivity with the enlarged markets of AEC. *In this regards, railway connectivity could enhance China s trade, investment and tourism with ASEAN. *Thus, China will benefit greatly from railway connectivity with ASEAN for both economic and strategic importance. *Need to bridge various missing links. *For the missing link in Lao PDR, financial assistance is required. Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 24
Implementation of regional railway connectivity involves with many challenges ranging from technical, operational, financial, social, security to political aspects. The entry into force of any related Intergovernmental Agreements shall provide institutional framework for all parties to work on. Sincerity and concrete commitment is crucial for this ambitious China-ASEAN rail link plan. The 7 th China-ASEAN Think-Tank Strategic Dialogue Forum, Nanning, China, 12-13 Sept 2014 Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 25
Thank You ขอบคณค ขอบค ณคะ com Dr.Aksornsri Phanishsarn 26
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