The Political Economy of Refugee Migration and Foreign Aid

The Political Economy of Refugee Migration and Foreign Aid

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The Political Economy of Refugee Migration and Foreign Aid Mathias Czaika

Mathias Czaika 2009 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2009 978-0-230-57688-9 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6-10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2009 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-36671-2 ISBN 978-0-230-27420-4 (ebook) DOI 10.1057/9780230274204 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09

This work is dedicated to those who currently live as refugees and asylum seekers in desperate situations around the globe, whether living in a camp, a retention centre or somewhere else, but certainly in insecurity and fear. May your voices be heard and your prayers answered.

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Contents List of Tables List of Figures Abbreviations Acknowledgements ix xi xii xiv 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Research objective 1 1.2 Research outline 5 2 Forced Migration Patterns and Politics 10 2.1 Introduction 10 2.2 Migration characteristics 11 2.3 International actors for refugee protection 16 2.4 Refugee Politics 19 3 International Refugee Burdens 25 3.1 Introduction 25 3.2 Assessing the refugee burden to host countries 26 3.3 Methodology of a refugee burden index 30 3.4 Concluding remarks 40 4 Determinants of Forced Displacement: The Case of Aceh, Indonesia 43 4.1 Introduction 44 4.2 Conflict history and displacement in Aceh, Indonesia 46 4.3 Theoretical background of displacements 50 4.4 Empirical analysis of displacement in Aceh 52 4.5 Concluding remarks 65 5 The Political Economy of Refugee Migration 67 5.1 Introduction 67 5.2 The Model 70 5.3 Counter-asylum policies 77 5.4 Concluding remarks 87 vii

viii Contents 6 Asylum Cooperation among Asymmetric Countries 88 6.1 Introduction 88 6.2 Literature review 90 6.3 The analytical framework 94 6.4 Asylum cooperation in the European Union 104 6.5 Concluding remarks 112 7 Refugee Movements and Aid Politics 114 7.1 Introduction 114 7.2 Aid and refugee migration policies 115 7.3 Aid allocation patterns and statistics 118 7.4 UN diplomacy and aid allocation 123 7.5 Concluding remarks 129 8 Aid Allocation and Asylum Migration 131 8.1 Introduction 131 8.2 Aid allocation literature review 132 8.3 The model 135 8.4 Comparative statics 137 8.5 Empirical evidence 138 8.6 Concluding remarks 144 9 Refugee Movements and Aid Responsiveness 146 9.1 Introduction 146 9.2 Refugee movements: some policy options 148 9.3 Empirical analysis 151 9.4 Concluding remarks 162 10 Conclusion 164 10.1 Summary 164 10.2 Policy implications 166 Appendix 170 Notes 181 Bibliography 192 Index 203

Tables 2.1 International migration stocks (2005) and flows (2000 05), in 1000 12 3.1 Correlation matrix of the RCI components 33 3.2 Top 20 burdened countries in 2003 37 3.3 Top 5 intra-regionally most burdened countries in 2003 38 3.4 Inter-regional Refugee Burden Index in 2003 40 3.5 Inter-regional Refugee Burden Matrix (gross/net stocks) in 2003 41 4.1 Conflict and population change in the Aceh sample, 1999 2002 54 4.2 Probit estimation: conflict incidence 58 4.3 Determinants of change in village population 60 4.4 Quantile regressions of population change 61 4.5 Determinants of population change by conflict occurrence 62 5.1 Simulation: aid transfers and refugee migration 85 6.1 Asylum cooperation: equal population quota, EU-27 108 6.2 Asylum cooperation: equal economic burdens, EU-27 110 7.1 Sector composition of total ODA grants, 3-year average 122 7.2 Bilateral and multilateral aid allocation 127 7.3 Bilateral donor-specific coefficients 128 8.1 Bivariate correlates of German ODA and explanatory variables 141 8.2 German aid allocation 142 9.1 Aid allocation determinants, 1992 2003, 18 donors, 148 recipients 157 9.2 Categorization of aid donors 160 A.1 Specifications of the Refugee Capacity Index 170 A.2 Descriptive statistics, Aceh sample 171 A.3 Derivations of the refugee migration model 173 A.4 Descriptive statistics, EU-27 174 A.5 Descriptive statistics, UN speeches sample 175 A.6 Data description and sources, UN speeches sample 175 ix

x Tables A.7 Descriptive statistics, German aid allocation sample 176 A.8 Data description and sources, German aid allocation sample 177 A.9 Descriptive statistics, aid panel dataset 178 A.10 Correlation matrix, aid panel dataset 179 A.11 Data definitions and sources, aid panel dataset 180

Figures 1.1 Global distribution of refugees, in millions 3 4.1 Aceh districts 49 4.2 Perceived value of displacement 51 5.1 Cross-border migration duration of persecuted individuals 73 5.2 The refugee migration decision: who, where, and how long 75 5.3 Liberalization of self-reliance in the first asylum country 79 5.4 Declining asylum recognition rate in the Western asylum country 80 5.5 Increasing income level in the country of origin 84 5.6 Self-financing proactive asylum policy 87 6.1 Asylum policy among countries with asymmetric spillovers 98 6.2 Asylum policy outcomes among countries with asymmetric costs 98 7.1 Donor motivations of ODA provision, EU public poll, 2007 118 7.2 Net disbursement of ODA, OECD/DAC countries 119 7.3 Top bilateral donor states in 2006 120 7.4 Regional distribution of ODA, 1996 and 2006 121 8.1 Asylum applications in EU countries (in 1000) 133 xi

Abbreviations BIS BMZ BPS CEAS CIA CRS DAC DPKO EC ECHO ELRFI ERC ERF EU FDI GAM GDPI HDI IASC ICARA ICRC IDP ILO IMF IOM NGO OAU OCHA ODA OECD OLS Bank for International Settlements Bundesministerium für Wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (German Ministry for Economic Development and Cooperation) Badan Pusat Statistik (Statistics Indonesia) Common European Asylum System Central Intelligence Agency Creditor Reporting System Development Assistance Committee Department for Peace-Keeping Operations European Commission European Community Humanitarian aid Office Ethno-Linguistic-Religious Fractionalization Index Emergency Relief Coordinator European Refugee Fund European Union Foreign Direct Investment Gerakan Aceh Merdeka (Acehnese Freedom Movement) Gross Domestic Product Index Human Development Index Interagency Standing Committee International Conference on Assistance to Refugees in Africa International Committee of the Red Cross Internally Displaced Person International Labour Organization International Monetary Fund International Organization for Migration Non-Governmental Organization Organization for African Unity Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Official Development Assistance Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development Ordinary Least Squares xii

Abbreviations xiii PDI PFI PODES PQLI PSI RBI RBS RCI TNI TPOC UN UNDP UNHCHR UNHCR UNICEF UNRWA WB WFP Population Density Index Political Freedom Index Potensi Desa (Village Potential Census) Physical Quality of Life Index Political Stability Index Refugee Burden Index Refugee Burden-Sharing Refugee Capacity Index Tentara Nasional Indonesia (Indonesian military forces) Total Persons of Concern United Nations United Nations Development Program United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees United Nations International Children s Emergency Fund United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees World Bank World Food Program

Acknowledgements To whom shall I give more praise and thank for HIS support than to my heavenly Father! He is and was my solid foundation in all my struggles and times of thinking, writing, and abandoning. He is and was my friend and encourager, my shining light in times of joy and doubt. I praise you, Jesus! I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisor, Prof. Günther Schulze. His detailed and constructive comments as well as all his encouragement and understanding have provided a good basis for the present book. Furthermore, I am grateful to my (former) colleagues and friends from the University of Freiburg, Krisztina Kis-Katos, Eva Deuchert, Antonio Farfán Vallespín, Juliane Fliedner, Grischa Perino, Martin Keller, Michael Trost, Inga Müller, Amy Mayer and Marcus Marktanner for all of the discussions, collaboration, assistance, proofreading and fun. I also appreciated all of the helpful comments of the participants in the Wednesday Doktorandenseminar at the University of Freiburg. I am thankful also to Amy McDonough for proofreading this book. However, I would like to state that any errors in this thesis, be they imprecise quotations or basic misrepresentations, are unintentional and my responsibility alone. My warm thanks are due to Giseltraud Herbert for all her kindness and helpful assistance throughout the past five years. Special thanks to all of my friends from Students for Christ (SfC) for their interest, encouragement and prayers. I owe my loving thanks to my wonderful parents Hartmut and Lydia, for enabling my university education, and particularly, for their love and support throughout the years. Finally, I want to express my special thanks to my beloved wife Catheline. She helped me to concentrate on completing this thesis and supported me in many ways, especially by her prayers. Without her help, encouragement and understanding, this book could not have been completed. xiv