Florida RV Survey 800 Registered Voters Statewide + Oversample of 600 Registered Republican Voters October 23-29, 2017 FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 1
Right on Crime funded this poll to show voters and legislators that Floridians across all geographies and demographics support genuine criminal justice reforms. Right on Crime is a national campaign to promote successful, conservative solutions on American criminal justice policy reforming the system to ensure public safety, shrink government, and save taxpayers money. By sharing research and policy ideas and mobilizing strong conservative voices, we work to raise awareness of the growing support for effective reforms within the conservative movement. We are transforming the debate on criminal justice in America. FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 2
Table of Contents Methodology Statement Likely Voter Groups Key Take-Aways Criminal Justice System Criminal Justice Legislative Proposals Increase Minimum Threshold for Felony Theft Ending Practice of Suspending Driver Licenses Allow Judges to Cut Mandatory Minimums for First-Time Drug Offenders Civil Citation Programs Appendix FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 3
Methodology 800 Registered Voters were surveyed over the phone from October 23-26 and an additional 300 Republicans (for 600 total) were surveyed October 27-29, 2017. Interviews were stratified into proportionate units based on state registered voter data. Survey was conducted over the phone using a list of registered voters provided by the state of Florida. Margin of sampling error for 800 registered voters is ±3.46%. Margin of sampling error for 600 registered Republican voters is ±4.00%. FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 4
Likely Voter Group Definitions GOP PV s = Registered Republican voters who had voted in at least one of the last four statewide GOP primaries (Presidential or Gubernatorial). They comprise 64% of the total Republican sample. (N=381 with margin of error of +/-5.02%) GOV LV s = Registered voters of all parties who had voted in at least one of the last two Gubernatorial elections. They comprise 62% of the total Registered voter sample. (N=499 with a margin of error of +/-4.38%) FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 5
Key Take-Aways: (1) Registered voters overwhelmingly believe that the primary purpose of the criminal justice system is to rehabilitate and not punish criminals. As importantly, a plurality of GOP voters agree. Even the most conservative GOP voters and GOP PV s are split on the issue. And when it comes to dealing with youth offenders, both group of voters side squarely in protecting minors from the system. FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 6
Key Take-Aways: (2) Despite the range of opinions these voters have on the criminal justice system, BOTH voter groups readily embrace the four proposed reforms tested: Roughly 3 in 4 registered voters and GOP voters support ending the practice of suspending drivers licenses for failure to pay court fees or fines when the person can prove an inability to pay and agrees to do community service. Nearly three-quarters or more of both voter universes support encouraging counties to create civil citation programs that would allow police officers to give citations that include fines and/or community service instead of making arrests for various misdemeanors. Two-thirds or more of both voter groups support allowing Florida state judges to cut three and five year mandatory minimum sentences by up to two-thirds for first time drug offenders when they believe the mandatory sentence is inappropriate based on the crime committed. A solid majority of both voter universes support raising the minimum monetary threshold that qualifies as a felony from $300 to $1,500. As important as the overall support among both voter universes is that there is virtually no difference in the level of support between all registered voters and known Gubernatorial voters, or all GOP voters and known GOP primary voters. FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 7
Criminal Justice System FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 8
Primary Purpose of Criminal Justice System By a 2-to-1 margin, Floridians believe the primary purpose of the criminal justice system should be to rehabilitate, rather than punish. Across the demographic board, voters feel this way, but Republicans are more likely than others to favor punishment. Conservative Republicans, in particular, lean towards punishment as the primary purpose by a 6-point margin. Reg Voters GOP RV 90% 90% 50% 30% 29% 49% 37% 62% 29% 68% 22% 63% 29% 58% 58% 63% 32% 31% 29% 67% 21% 59% 31% 50% 30% 47% 47% 46% 41% 39% 46% 55% 33% 44% 41% 0% +31 +12 +33 +46 +34 +26 +27 +34 +46 +28 Overall GOP Ind Dem Male Female White Hisp Black Gov LV Rehabilitate Punish Net Rehab 0% +7 +6 +7-6 +22 +3 Overall Male Female Con GOP Mod/Lib GOP GOP PV Rehabilitate Punish Net Rehab FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 Q8. In general, should the primary purpose of the criminal justice system be to (ROTATE) punish criminals or rehabilitate criminals? 9
Decision on Prosecuting Child as an Adult By wide margins, Florida voters and Republicans trust judges more to decide if a child should be tried as an adult. Mod/Lib Republicans are less likely than most to trust judges, but still do so by a more than 2-to-1 margin. Reg Voters GOP RV 90% 65% 72% 73% 73% 67% 68% 90% 71% 69% 72% 78% 61% 69% 50% 50% 30% 14% 17% 12% 12% 15% 13% 14% 15% 14% 16% 30% 16% 18% 15% 13% 23% 19% 0% +56 +48 +60 +61 +55 +57 +56 +58 +53 +52 Overall GOP Ind Dem Male Female White Hisp Black Gov LV 0% +55 +51 +57 +65 +38 +50 Overall Male Female Con GOP Mod/Lib GOP GOP PV Judges Prosecutors Net Judges Judges Prosecutors Net Judges FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 Q16. Generally speaking, who do you trust more to make the decision about whether to prosecute a child as an adult? 10
Minors Charged should stay in Juvenile System Three quarters of FL voters, and two-thirds of Republicans agree minors charged with adult crimes should stay in the Juvenile system. Overall, and among Republicans, women are more likely than men to agree with this sentiment. Both Democrats and Independents, as well as minorities, agree by margins of more than. Interestingly, Mod/Lib Republicans are LESS likely to agree with this statement than conservatives. 90% 74% 67% 77% 78% Reg Voters 71% 76% 72% 79% 79% 72% 90% 67% 65% GOP RV 71% 63% 68% 50% 50% 30% 26% 16% 15% 22% 18% 21% 16% 18% 30% 26% 29% 23% 22% 32% 24% 0% +54 +41 +61 +63 +49 +58 +51 +63 +61 +52 Overall GOP Ind Dem Male Female White Hisp Black Gov LV 0% +41 +36 +47 +49 +31 +44 Overall Male Female Con GOP Mod/Lib GOP GOP PV Agree Disagree Net Agree Agree Disagree Net Agree Q46. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements regarding minors and the criminal justice system: Minors charged with crimes should stay in the juvenile justice system and not be transferred to the adult criminal system. FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 11
Minors Awaiting Trial as Adults stay in Juv. Facility There is widespread agreement that minors awaiting trial as an adult should still be housed in a juvenile facility. Reg Voters GOP RV 90% 86% 87% 90% 85% 87% 84% 92% 88% 84% 90% 81% 79% 84% 81% 81% 83% 50% 50% 30% 0% 12% 16% 8% 13% 13% 8% 11% 13% +74 +64 +77 +82 +72 +77 +71 +84 +77 +71 Agree Disagree Net Agree 30% 0% 15% 19% 12% 15% 18% +66 +60 +72 +66 +63 +70 Overall Male Female Con GOP Mod/Lib GOP Agree Disagree Net Agree 13% GOP PV FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 Q47. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements regarding minors and the criminal justice system: Minors awaiting trial as adults should stay 12 in the juvenile justice facilities and not be housed in adult jails pending trial.
Prosecutors Disclose Plea Negotiations w/ Minors Likewise, Floridians of every political and demographic persuasion feel prosecutors need to disclose their plea deals with minors by wide margins. Reg Voters GOP RV 90% 81% 78% 82% 84% 81% 82% 81% 85% 79% 81% 90% 79% 77% 81% 78% 77% 50% 50% 30% 0% 19% 13% 15% 12% 12% 14% 11% 12% 11% 13% +68 +63 +70 +72 +67 +71 +69 +74 +60 +68 Overall GOP Ind Dem Male Female White Hisp Black Gov LV 30% 0% 14% 16% 12% 12% 18% 16% +65 +61 +69 +68 +60 +61 Overall Male Female Con GOP Mod/Lib GOP GOP PV Agree Disagree Net Agree Agree Disagree Net Agree Q48. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements regarding minors and the criminal justice system: Prosecutors should be required to disclose the details of their plea negotiations with minors, including any threats of charging the minor as an adult. FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 13
Criminal Justice Legislative Proposals FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 14
Criminal Justice Reform Proposals All four proposals are favored by a majority of voters and Republicans by double-digit margins. Increasing the monetary threshold for felony theft runs up against the most resistance, but is still favored 55% - 34%. 90% Increase the minimum monetary threshold for what qualifies as felony theft from three-hundred dollars to fifteen-hundred dollars. 55% 54% End the practice of suspending driver s licenses for failure to pay court fees or fines when a person is able to prove an inability to pay the fine and agrees to do community service. 79% 77% Allow Florida state judges to cut three and five-year mandatory minimum sentences by up to two-thirds for first time drug offenders when they believe the sentence is inappropriate based on the crime committed. 69% 65% Encourage all counties in Florida to create civil citation programs that would allow law enforcement officers to give a citation that includes a fine and/or community service instead of making an arrest for various misdemeanors. 78% 74% 50% 30% 0% 34% 36% 11% 11% 23% 26% 17% 19% 4% 4% 8% 9% 16% 19% 6% 8% +21 +18 +62 +58 +46 +39 +62 +55 Reg Voters GOP RV Reg Voters GOP RV Reg Voters GOP RV Reg Voters GOP RV Favor Oppose Unsure/DK/Ref Net Favor Q12-15. I am now going to read you a list of several proposals before the State Legislature for criminal justice reforms in Florida. After I read each proposal please tell me whether you would strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose each proposal. If you are unsure or need more information, please just tell me that. FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 15
Increase Minimum Threshold for Felony Theft FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 16
Increase Minimum Threshold for Felony Theft: Reg Voters Increasing the minimum threshold for felony theft from $300 to $1,500 is favored by a majority, 55% - 34%. Though a plurality favor the proposal, Independents (+8) are noticeably less favorably than Democrats or Republicans. 90% 50% 30% 55% 55% 34% 35% 47% 39% 59% 58% 52% 54% 55% 57% 35% 34% 35% 31% 32% 33% 53% 36% 0% 14% 11% 11% 8% 14% 12% 14% 11% +21 +20 +8 +28 +23 +18 +19 +23 +24 +17 Overall GOP Ind Dem Male Female White Hisp Black Gov LV Favor Oppose Unsure/DK/Ref Net Favor FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 Q12. I am now going to read you a list of several proposals before the State Legislature for criminal justice reforms in 17 Florida. After I read each proposal please tell me whether you would strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose each proposal. If you are unsure or need more information, please just tell me that.
Increase Minimum Threshold for Felony Theft: GOP RV Republicans are almost as equally supportive, with 54% favoring this proposal, and 36% opposing. Mod/Libs favor increasing the minimum threshold by 10 more net points than conservatives, though majorities of both favor the idea. 90% 54% 54% 53% 51% 57% 55% 50% 36% 37% 34% 38% 34% 35% 30% 0% 11% 9% 12% 9% +18 +17 +19 +13 +23 +20 Overall Male Female Con GOP Mod/Lib GOP GOP PV Favor Oppose Unsure/DK/Ref Net Favor FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 Q12. I am now going to read you a list of several proposals before the State Legislature for criminal justice reforms in 18 Florida. After I read each proposal please tell me whether you would strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose each proposal. If you are unsure or need more information, please just tell me that.
Ending Practice of Suspending Driver Licenses FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 19
Ending Practice of Suspending Driver Licenses: Reg Voters This proposal receives broad support, favored 79% to 17%, and among the many demographic groups, is favored by more than three quarters of every one. 90% 79% 78% 77% 82% 79% 78% 78% 85% 79% 50% 30% 0% 17% 18% 18% 19% 15% 16% 15% 7% 4% 4% 6% 3% 5% 7% 2% 3% 5% +62 +60 +70 +67 +62 +63 +59 +63 +75 +61 2% Overall GOP Ind Dem Male Female White Hisp Black Gov LV 18% Favor Oppose Unsure/DK/Ref Net Favor FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 Q13. I am now going to read you a list of several proposals before the State Legislature for criminal justice reforms in 20 Florida. After I read each proposal please tell me whether you would strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose each proposal. If you are unsure or need more information, please just tell me that.
Ending Practice of Suspending Driver Licenses: GOP RV Republicans also broadly support ending the practice of suspending licenses for failing to pay court fines and fees. 90% 77% 77% 78% 76% 79% 75% 50% 30% 0% 19% 18% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 4% +58 +57 +60 +56 +62 +54 Overall Male Female Con GOP Mod/Lib GOP GOP PV 17% 21% Favor Oppose Unsure/DK/Ref Net Favor FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 Q13. I am now going to read you a list of several proposals before the State Legislature for criminal justice reforms in 21 Florida. After I read each proposal please tell me whether you would strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose each proposal. If you are unsure or need more information, please just tell me that.
Allow Judges to Cut Mandatory Minimums for First-Time Drug Offenders FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 22
Cut Mand. Minimums for 1 st Time Drug Offenders: Reg Voters Allowing judges to reduce the mandatory minimum sentences for first time drug offenders is favored by more than two-thirds of FL voters (69%) and opposed by less than a quarter (23%). Dems and African-Americans show the greatest support for this proposals, but more than 2/3rds of all groups favor it. 90% 69% 67% 68% 72% 69% 68% 68% 67% 73% 50% 30% 0% 23% 24% 24% 25% 21% 23% 23% 22% 19% 8% 9% 8% 8% 5% 11% 8% 8% 8% +46 +43 +44 +52 +44 +47 +45 +44 +54 +48 Overall GOP Ind Dem Male Female White Hisp Black Gov LV Favor Oppose Unsure/DK/Ref Net Favor FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 Q14. I am now going to read you a list of several proposals before the State Legislature for criminal justice reforms in 23 Florida. After I read each proposal please tell me whether you would strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose each proposal. If you are unsure or need more information, please just tell me that.
Cut Mand. Minimums for 1 st Time Drug Offenders: GOP RV Republicans favor allowing judges to cut the mandatory minimum of first time drug offenders, 65% - 29%. Men and conservatives are marginally more in favor than women and mod/libs, respectively. 90% 65% 68% 62% 66% 64% 65% 50% 30% 26% 26% 26% 26% 29% 26% 0% 9% 6% 11% 8% 7% 9% +39 +42 +36 +40 +35 +39 Overall Male Female Con GOP Mod/Lib GOP GOP PV Favor Oppose Unsure/DK/Ref Net Favor FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 Q14. I am now going to read you a list of several proposals before the State Legislature for criminal justice reforms in 24 Florida. After I read each proposal please tell me whether you would strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose each proposal. If you are unsure or need more information, please just tell me that.
Civil Citation Programs FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 25
Civil Citation Programs: Reg Voters Floridians favor encouraging counties to enact Civil Citation programs by a wide 62-point margin. Democrats (+69), Independents (+67), and African-Americans (+77) are the most likely to favor this proposal, though all groups do by 50+-points. 90% 78% 73% 82% 78% 79% 78% 78% 85% 77% 50% 30% 0% 16% 18% 17% 13% 13% 14% 16% 18% 6% 7% 7% 8% 5% 5% 7% 6% 6% 7% 6% +62 +53 +67 +69 +60 +65 +61 +62 +77 +59 Overall GOP Ind Dem Male Female White Hisp Black Gov LV Favor Oppose Unsure/DK/Ref Net Favor FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 Q15. I am now going to read you a list of several proposals before the State Legislature for criminal justice reforms in 26 Florida. After I read each proposal please tell me whether you would strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose each proposal. If you are unsure or need more information, please just tell me that.
Civil Citation Programs: GOP RV Republicans also support this idea by a wide margin, 74% favor 19% oppose. Women are more likely to favor this proposal (+60) than their male counterparts (+49). 90% 74% 71% 76% 73% 77% 72% 50% 30% 0% 19% 22% 16% 19% 18% 8% 7% 8% 8% +55 +49 +60 +54 +59 +51 Overall Male Female Con GOP Mod/Lib GOP GOP PV 5% 21% 8% Favor Oppose Unsure/DK/Ref Net Favor FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 Q15. I am now going to read you a list of several proposals before the State Legislature for criminal justice reforms in 27 Florida. After I read each proposal please tell me whether you would strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose each proposal. If you are unsure or need more information, please just tell me that.
Appendix FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 28
Party REG VOTERS Other, 1% Refused, 2% GOP RV Independent, 24% Republican, 38% Democrat, 35% Republican, Q49. With which political party are you REGISTERED? Are you registered as a FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 29
Ideology REG VOTERS DK/Ref, 4% GOP RV DK/Ref, 3% Liberal, 7% Liberal, 23% Conservative, 33% Moderate, 32% Conservative, 58% Moderate, Q50. Would you consider yourself a liberal, moderate or conservative in your political beliefs? FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 30
Age REG VOTERS Refused, 3% GOP RV Refused, 2% 18-34, 17% 18-34, 23% 65+, 27% 65+, 33% 35-44, 12% 35-44, 13% 55-64, 18% 45-54, 16% 45-54, 16% 55-64, Q51. In what year were you born? FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 31
Marital Status REG VOTERS Refused, 3% Separated, 2% GOP RV Separated, 1% Refused, 4% Divorced, Divorced, Widowed, 11% Married, 51% Widowed, 12% Married, 59% Single, 23% Single, 14% Q52. What is your current marital status? FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 32
Religion REG VOTERS GOP RV DK/Refused, 13% Other, 3% DK/Refused, 12% Other, 6% Atheist, 14% Protestant, 45% Atheist, 7% Protestant, 49% Catholic, 29% Catholic, 23% Q53. What is your religion? FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 33
Evangelical Christian REG VOTERS Refused, 7% GOP RV Refused, 8% Yes, 30% Yes, 35% No, 63% No, 57% Q54. Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born again Christian? FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 34
Household Income REG VOTERS GOP RV Refused, 16% <$20K, 11% Refused, 19% <$20K, 8% $150K+, $20K-$40K, 16% $150K+, 9% $20K-$40K, 15% $100K-$150K, 11% $40K-$60K, 15% $100K-$150K, 13% $40K-$60K, 17% $80K-$100K, $60K-$80K, 11% $80K- $100K, 9% $60K-$80K, 9% Q55. What is you annual household income BEFORE taxes? Is it FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 35
Race/Ethnicity REG VOTERS African- American, 13% Other, 5% Refused, 1% GOP RV African- Other, 3% American, 2% Refused, 1% Hispanic, 12% Hispanic, 17% White, 64% White, 82% Q56/57/58. What is your main racial background? FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 36
Gender REG VOTERS Female/Ref, 4% GOP RV Female/Ref, 6% Homemaker, 25% Male, 46% Homemaker, 26% Male, 49% Working Women, 25% Working Women, 19% Q59. Gender: (BY OBSERVATION) (IF Female) Are you employed outside the home? FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 37
DMA REG VOTERS GOP RV Gainesville, 2% Panama City, 2% Tallahassee, 3% Pensacola, 4% Tampa, 24% Orlando, 21% Gainesville, Panama 2% City, 3% Tallahassee, 2% Pensacola, 5% Tampa, 25% Orlando, 21% Ft. Myers, 6% Ft. Myers, 8% Jacksonville, 8% WPB, 11% Miami, Jacksonville, WPB, Miami, 14% FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 38
Vote History REG VOTERS: General Election 0 of 4, 13% GOP RV: Primary 4 of 4, 18% 4 of 4, 36% 0 of 4, 36% 1 of 4, 16% 3 of 4, 2 of 4, 16% 2 of 4, 13% 3 of 4, 18% 1 of 4, 23% FL RV + GOP OS October 2017 39