DRAFT A POPULATION POLICY FOR BAROSSA-LIGHT Graeme Hugo, University Professorial Research Fellow, Professor of Geography, Director, The National Centre for Social Applications of GIS, Australian Institute for Social Research The University of Adelaide Prepared for the Barossa-Light Regional Development Board January 2008 GISCA The National Centre for Social Applications of GIS The Australian Institute for Social Research The University of Adelaide Level 4, 230 North Terrace Adelaide, SA 5005 Ph: 61 8 8303 3900 Fax: 61 8 8303 3498 Email: graeme.hugo@adelaide.edu.au http://www.gisca.adelaide.edu.au
CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION... 1 2. POPULATION TRENDS IN BAROSSA-LIGHT... 7 2.1 Introduction... 7 2.2 Fertility... 8 2.3 Mortality... 11 2.4 Migration... 11 3. THE ROLE OF COMMUTING... 21 3.1 Population Ageing... 25 3.2 Families and Households... 33 3.3 Labour Force and Skills... 35 4. POPULATION VISION AND PROJECTIONS... 40 4.1 Introduction... 40 4.2 Projections of Barossa-Lights Future Population... 41 4.3 Planning for South Australia s Population Targets... 45 4.4 Population Policy Implications... 52 5. STRATEGIES FOR POPULATION GROWTH AND RENEWAL... 55 5.1 Introduction... 55 5.2 International Migration... 58 5.3 Migration Within Australia... 63 5.4 Workforce Ageing and Workforce Development... 64 5.5 Return of Expatriate South Australians... 64 5.6 Fertility... 66 5.7 Ageing... 68 5.8 Labour Force and Skills Development... 70 6. PLANNING FOR A GROWING, AGEING AND SUSTAINABLE POPULATION 71 6.1 Introduction... 71 6.2 Anticipated Growth in Particular Life Stage Groups... 71 6.3 Planning for a Healthy Population... 72 6.4 Sustainability... 72 6.5 Monitoring and Review... 73 REFERENCES... 74 i
LIST OF TABLES Table 1: South Australia: Selected Population Projection Scenarios, 2002-51... 4 Table 2: South Australia: Population if Current Annual Rate of Growth Maintained... 5 Table 3: South Australia: Population if Current Rate of Growth Maintained... 6 Table 4: South Australia Natural Increase in Recent Years... 6 Table 5: South Australia: Net Migration in Recent Years... 7 Table 6: Barossa and Light LGAs and South Australia: Population Growth, 1991 to 2006... 8 Table 7: South Australia: Projected Population Growth by Region, 2006 to 2021... 8 Table 8: Total Fertility Rate by Region, 2006... 9 Table 9: Barossa-Light and Adelaide Statistical Division: Percentage Distribution of Population by Age, 2006... 10 Table 10: Population Growth by Age, Barossa & Light and South Australia, 1996 to 2006... 10 Table 11: Indirect Standardised Death Rate by Region, 2006... 11 Table 12: Number of Immigrants with Visas Granted Under the State Regional Specific Migration Mechanisms and Their Proportion of the Total Intake 1998-99 to 2006-07... 13 Table 13: South Australia, Adelaide Statistical Division and Barossa-Light: Overseas-Born Population, 2001 and 2006... 15 Table 14: Barossa and Light: Birthplace Groups and Growth, 1996-2001 and 2001-2006... 15 Table 15: South Australia, Adelaide Statistical Division and Barossa-Light: Place of Usual Residence 5 Years Ago by Sex, 2006... 16 Table 16: Barossa-Light: In- and Out-Migration, 1996-2001 and 2001-06... 17 Table 17: Barossa-Light: Internal Migration To and From Other Parts of South Australia, 1996-2006... 17 Table 18: Barossa-Light: Working Population Residing In the Area and the Number of Workers Living in the Area, 1996-2006... 22 Table 19: Barossa-Light: Residents in the Area Working In and Outside the Area, 2006... 23 Table 20: Origin-Destination Matrix of Journey to Work within the Barossa Light Region, 2006... 23 Table 21: Barossa-Light: Origin of Workers to SLAs, 2006... 24 Table 22: Barossa Light Region: Resident Workers Place of Work, 2006... 24 Table 23: Barossa Light Region: Number of Residents Working in the Adelaide Statistical Division 2001 and 2006... 25 Table 24: Barossa-Light and South Australia: Population Growth by Age, 1996-2006... 29 Table 25: Adelaide Statistical Division and Barossa-Light: Households and Families, 2001-2006... 34 Table 26: Barossa and Light: Household Composition, Occupied Private Dwellings... 35 Table 27: Adelaide Statistical Division and Barossa-Light: Labour Force Indicators, 2001 and 2006... 36 Table 28: Barossa-Light: Labour Force Characteristics, 2006... 37 Table 29: Barossa (DC): Top 10 occupations for Males and Females, 2006... 38 Table 30: Light (RegC): Top 10 Occupations for Males and Females, 2006... 39 Table 31: Barossa & Light: Occupation Classification by Year, 1991 to 2006... 39 Table 32: Barossa & Light: Industry Classification by Year, 1996 to 2006... 40 Table 33: South Australia: Population Growth by Region, 2006 to 2021... 41 Table 34: Barossa Light: Actual and Projected Change by Age, 2001-2021... 45 Table 35: South Australia: Strategic Plan Population Targets... 46 Table 36: South Australia: Population Growth, 2000-2007... 46 Table 37: South Australia: Population if Current Rate of Growth Maintained... 47 Table 38: South Australia: Components of Population Change, 1996-2007... 48 Table 39: Barossa & Light: Actual and Projected Share of State Population, 2001-2021... 50 Table 40: Projections of the Population of the ASD and OASD, 2001-21... 52 Table 41: Barossa-Light: Projections of Population and Households, 2001-21... 53 ii
LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: South Australia: ABS Population Projections, 2004-2051... 3 Figure 2: South Australia: Projected Population, 2001 to 2051... 3 Figure 3: South Australia: Total Fertility Rate, 1845-2006... 9 Figure 4: South Australia: Components of Population Change, 1947-54 to 2006-07... 12 Figure 5: South Australia: Net Interstate Migration Flows, 2003-06... 14 Figure 6: Australia: Mobility Rates by Age, 2000-01... 20 Figure 7: Barossa and Light: Net Migration Profile, 2001 to 2006... 20 Figure 8: South Australia: Population by 5-Year Age Cohort, 1971, 2001 and 2031... 26 Figure 9: Barossa and Light: Age and Sex Distribution of the Population, 2001 and 2006... 27 Figure 10: South Australia: Age and Sex Distribution of the Population, 2001 and 2006... 28 Figure 11: South Australia and Barossa & Light Age Sex Structure, 2006... 28 Figure 12: Angaston SLA: Age Sex Structure, 2001 and 2006... 30 Figure 13: Barossa SLA: Age Sex Structure 2001 and 2006... 31 Figure 14: Tanunda SLA: Age Sex Structure, 2001 and 2006... 32 Figure 15: Light LGA: Age and Sex Distribution of the Population, 2001 and 2006... 32 Figure 16: Barossa and Light: Growth of Population and Households, 1996 to 2006... 33 Figure 17: Barossa LGA and Light (RegC): Percent Major Occupation Groups, 1991 to 2006. 37 Figure 18: Barossa & Light: Age Sex Structure, 2006 and 2021... 42 Figure 19: South Australia and Barossa & Light Age Sex Structure, 2021... 43 Figure 20: Barossa and Light LGAs: Change by Age: 2001-2011; 2021... 44 Figure 21: Australia: Settler Arrivals by State According to whether they are State Specific and Regional Migration Scheme Migrants or Other Migrants, 2005-06... 49 Figure 22: Comparison of Population and Dwellings Growth: Greater Adelaide Region, 1976-2006 and 2011-2021 (Projected)... 51 iii
1. INTRODUCTION Australia s Federal Government has eschewed the adoption of a population policy although there have been several calls by government initiated inquiries for it to do so (e.g. Parliament of Australia 1994). At a 2003 National Population Summit, a communiqué from all State/Territory Premiers supported the development of a national population policy (Vizard 2002). Subsequently South Australia (SA Government 2004) and Victoria (State of Victoria 2004) have published population policies. Pressure remains for the Federal Government to develop a national policy but it is also important to ask what are the implications for the third tiers of regional and local government. There are two dimensions here. Firstly what are the implications for local communities of a State population policy? Secondly, what options are available to local government to develop their own vision for their future population and what avenues are open to them to achieve that vision? In both cases it is necessary for developments to occur within the ambit of the State policy. It is the argument here that: (a) since regional and local government is the arm of government closest to people and community, it is crucial that population policy operate at this level. (b) while many of the levers available to influence population processes operate at Federal and State levels, there is some scope for regional and local government to influence their population futures. A population policy is a coherent set of objectives with relation to future population size, distribution and structure together with a series of initiatives designed to achieve those objectives. It partly involves governments seeking to anticipate and respond to population trends but also includes attempts to alter demographic trends deemed to have potential negative consequences. A population policy should not be developed in isolation from wider economic, social and political policies and it should be part of the effort to move toward such goals as improved prosperity, increased equity, greater productivity, ecological sustainability and social cohesion. Moreover it is important that a population policy encapsulate a consensus vision held by a broad cross section of a community with respect to its future population. This study explores in depth contemporary developments and likely impending changes in the population of the two local government areas of Barossa and Light which also 1
constitute the Barossa and Light Regional Development Board Region. The objective here is to draw on that analysis to inform a population policy for the Barossa-Light region. The report will be structured in a similar way to Prosperity Through People : A Population Policy for South Australia (Government of South Australia 2004) in order that the suggestions for Barossa-Light can be more readily placed in the context of the State s policy. A few points need to be made at the outset: A population policy is not a substitute for good social, economic and environmental policy. Rather it can facilitate the achievement of the goals of these policies since the people dimension of them is crucial. Hence, Barossa-Light s Population Policy should mesh with, facilitate and support the region s mainstream objectives for the future. The document should be a starting point for a discussion within the Barossa-Light community to develop a shared vision for the region. Hence, the ultimate population policy accepted by the region should involve the whole community not only in its formulation but also in its operationalisation. It can only be derived through a tripartite co-operation involving the broader community, local industry and government. The State Government population policy was conceived to meet the challenges of slow population growth, low and declining birth rates and a rapidly ageing population (Government of South Australia 2004, 2). As indicated in Figure 1, standard ABS projections (Series B) anticipate that the slow rate of growth of the State s population which prevailed around the time of the 2001 census 1 (0.5 percent per annum compared with 1.2 percent for the nation as a whole) will gradually lessen until the State goes into long term population decline in 20 years time. It needs to be said that these projections were based largely on the situation in South Australia in the 1990s, one of low economic and population growth which was exceptional in South Australia s postwar history. Planning SA (Planning SA 2005) have produced an alternative set of projections which give a wider range of population future scenarios for the State. These have no official standing but they do indicate a wider and what seem in 2008 to be more a plausible range of scenarios than is available in the ABS projections. Figure 2 shows that the 1 The ABS is in the process of producing a new set of population projections based on the results of the 2006 population census. 2
Persons scenarios the Planning SA projections present indicate a greater range of population futures. The darkest line represents the trajectory if the State s target of 2 million Figure 1: South Australia: ABS Population Projections, 2004-2051 Source: ABS, 2005 Figure 2: South Australia: Projected Population, 2001 to 2051 Source: Planning SA 2005 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 ABS Series B 2 Mill Med-Stable Mign 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2041 2051 Year 3
residents in 2051 is to be reached. The full details of each projection are presented in Table 1 and reflect a range of sets of assumptions regarding fertility, international and internal migration. Each of these scenarios needs to be borne in mind in considering the future population for Barossa-Light. The implications of these scenarios for Barossa- Light s future population are addressed later in this report. Table 1: South Australia: Selected Population Projection Scenarios, 2002-51 Source: Planning SA 2005 Series ABS Series B ABS Series 11 Total fertility rate from 2011 Net overseas migration (national) from 2005-06 High 1.79 NA 2 Mill by 2050 Net overseas migration to SA from 2005-06 Net interstate migration Popn 2003 (000) Popn 2011 (000) Popn 2021 (000) Popn 2051 (000) Growth rate p.a. 2001-11 (Ser B 2002-11) Median age 2011 Growth Rate p.a. 2041-51 1.59 100000 2800-2500 1527 1564 1592 1476 0.3 40.9-0.5 50.0 1.59 125000 3600-2500 1528 1571 1608 1521 0.4 40.9-0.4 49.7 1.68 NA Med- High Mig 1.68 NA Med-Stable Mig 1.68 NA 8750 from 2010 7000 from 2011 4100 from 2006 4000 from 2006 200 from 2011 zero from 2008-750 from 2011-2000 from 2007 Median age 2051 1526 1621 1778 2196 0.70 39.0 0.59 43.3 1526 1607 1728 2008 0.62 39.2 0.37 45.3 1526 1587 1664 1784 0.49 39.4 0.09 46.6 1526 1581 1642 1708 0.45 39.5-0.02 47.1 Med-Stable Mig Low Fert 1.49 NA 4000 from 2006-2000 from 2007 1526 1572 1614 1606 0.39 39.7-0.21 49.7 Low 1.49 NA 2900 from 2007-2000 by 2005-1,750 by 2008 1526 1570 1605 1569 0.38 39.7-0.27 50.1 An issue which needs to be raised in this introduction relates to Barossa-Light s current and future role within the South Australian context. It seems clear that Barossa-Light is likely to absorb a disproportionately large part of any net increase in South Australia s population over the next quarter century and alternatively it is unlikely to suffer a decline in population in the short to medium term even if the State were to experience such a decline. This arises from the strategic location of Barossa-Light on the periphery of the Adelaide metropolitan area and its resource base which ensures that it is likely to grow. Firstly, its location in the Adelaide peri-urban fringe means that it has substantial scope to develop as a dormitory area for 4
Adelaide and location of peri-urban industries. Secondly, it is likely that the natural endowments of the area will mean that there will be employment created in the region through the wine industry, tourism and other activities that will foster growth. A final point which needs to be raised at the outset is that South Australia has experienced an increase in annual population growth rates from 0.2 percent in 1994-95 to the current (2006-7) growth rate of 1 percent or 16,300 persons. While this is significantly lower than the national average (1.5 percent) and lower than in all States and Territories except Tasmania (0.7 percent), it is a major change. This is the most rapid rate of population change experienced by South Australia since 1983. The reality is that this growth rate is far in excess of the population growth anticipated by the ABS projections as is evident in Table 2. This rate of population growth is not only in excess of what was projected in any of the ABS projections but also what was projected by the Planning SA projections based on reaching a population of 2 million by 2051. Indeed Table 3 shows that if the 2006 growth rate of the South Australia population is maintained the 2 million target would be achieved in 2034 rather than 2051 and by mid century the South Australian population would by 2.31 million people. Table 2: South Australia: Population if Current Annual Rate of Growth Maintained 2006 1,558,230 2011 1,629,624 2021 1,782,375 2031 1,949,444 2034 2,002,554 2041 2,132,173 2050 2,311,228 Thus in its early days the South Australian population policy has been successful in increasing the State s rate of population growth. It is important to briefly consider what the components of the success have been by considering the relative contribution of natural increase (births-deaths) and net migration (inmigrants-outmigrants). Firstly dealing with natural increase, Table 4 shows that the natural increase level has been increasing since 2002-03 but increased substantially between 2005-06 and 2006-07. Moreover there has been an 5
increase in fertility or the intrinsic numbers of children that women are having with a 8.3 percent increase in Total Fertility Rate 2 between 2002-03 and 2006-07. This is a faster increase than for the nation as a whole. Hence, natural increase has exceeded expectations. Table 3: South Australia: Population if Current Rate of Growth Maintained 2005-6 2006-7 2006 1,558,230 2007 1,584,513 2011 1,629,624 2011 1,651,464 2021 1,782,375 2021 1,831,481 2031 1,949,444 2030 2,010,215 2034 2,002,554 2031 2,031,122 2041 2,132,173 2041 2,252,523 2050 2,311,228 2050 2,472,346 Table 4: South Australia Natural Increase in Recent Years Source: ABS 2007 Year Natural Increase TFR (SA) TFR (A) 2001-02 5,772 1.706 1.730 2002-03 5,198 1.686 1.722 2003-04 5,318 1.688 1.747 2004-05 5,632 1.734 1.786 2005-06 5,845 1.786 1.804 2006-07 6,726 1.826 1.853 However it is in the area of net migration that the big change has occurred. Table 5 shows the remarkable change which has occurred over the last five years. Net gains from international migration more than quadrupled between 2001-02 and 2006-07. There has been a spectacular increase in international migration which if it continues will produce a second large post World War II wave of migrants following the 1950s and 1960s for the State a new migration era. This has been facilitated by the State s energetic use of the State Specific and Regional Migration System (Hugo, forthcoming a). However the net migration loss to other States of Australia has continued and indeed it was at its highest level of the last decade 2 The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) indicates the number of children that will be born alive to a woman during her lifetime if she were to pass through all her child-bearing years conforming to the age specific rates of a given year (Hugo 1986, 43). More simply it indicates approximately the completed total number of children women are having on average at a particular time. 6
in 2006-07. Nevertheless it is apparent that overall net migration has increased from 1,369 in 2003-04 to 9,583 in 2006-07, a substantial change and ahead of the targets of the State Strategic Plan. Table 5: South Australia: Net Migration in Recent Years Source: ABS 2007 Year Net Overseas Migration Net Interstate Migration Total 2001-02 2,798-1,335 +1,463 2002-03 3,904-1,218 +2,686 2003-04 4,305-2,936 +1,369 2004-05 7,020-3,250 +3,770 2005-06 9,813-2,591 +7,322 2006-07 13,146-3,563 +9,583 2. POPULATION TRENDS IN BAROSSA-LIGHT 2.1 Introduction The key point here is that the population of Barossa-Light has been growing more quickly than that of the State as a whole. Table 6 shows the intercensal growth for the last four censuses and in all the periods the rate of growth of both Barossa and Light LGAs has outpaced that of the State as a whole. Moreover it will be noted in the table that there has been an increase in growth rates with each census and in the most recent intercensal period Barossa grew at more than twice the State average and Light at almost six times that average. In both cases they are growing at above the national average of population growth. In this respect it is interesting in Table 7 that the actual population in 2006 in Barossa and Light was ahead of those anticipated in the relatively optimistic Planning SA LGA projections which were made based on the 2001 census. These projections see a continuation of growth in the two LGAs over the next fifteen years albeit at a lower rate. They will be discussed in more detail later. 7
Table 6: Barossa and Light LGAs and South Australia: Population Growth, 1991 to 2006 Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population Data Year Barossa Light South Australia Persons % Growth p.a. Persons % Growth p.a. Persons % Growth p.a. 1991 17,268 8,704 1,446,299 1996 18,339 1.21 9,524 1.82 1,474,253 0.38 2001 19,497 1.23 10,542 2.05 1,511,728 0.50 2006 21,407 1.89 12,846 4.03 1,568,204 0.74 Table 7: South Australia: Projected Population Growth by Region, 2006 to 2021 Source: ABS 2006 Census and Planning SA LGA projections Year Growth Rate Per Annum (%) 2006 2011 2021 2006-2011 2011-2021 2006-2021 Barossa 21,060 22,327 24,509 1.18 0.94 1.02 Light 12,296 13,959 15,185 2.57 0.85 1.42 Adelaide Statistical Division 1,138,833 1,157,800 1,201,300 0.33 0.37 0.36 South Australia 1,568,204 1,576,100 1,625,200 0.10 0.31 0.24 2.2 Fertility The number of births occurring in a population is a function of the number of women of childbearing age in that population and the rate at which those women have children. The latter is the fertility rate and Figure 3 shows that South Australia s Total Fertility Rate declined from a high of nearly 4 in 1961 to below replacement level (2.1) in the mid 1970s, and thereafter has declined slowly to 1.677 in 2001 but has subsequently recovered to 1.788 in 2006. The TFRs in Barossa and Light are significantly above levels for both South Australia and Australia as is apparent from Table 8. In some parts of Barossa-Light the fertility level is above replacement. This is partly a function of the fact that the region s housing stock and availability for greenfields housing development means that there is a selective inmigration of people who wish to form and raise a family. Similarly the lifestyle of the region is conducive to the inmigration of families rather than individuals or couples. 8
Figure 3: South Australia: Total Fertility Rate, 1845-2006 Source: Hugo 1983, CBCS Demography Bulletin and ABS Births Australia, various issues Table 8: Total Fertility Rate by Region, 2006 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Region Total Fertility Rate 2006 Light 2.06 Barossa 1.90 Total Adelaide 1.63 South Australia 1.73 Australia 1.81 There is wide discussion in Australia on fertility and concern that the nation will follow such countries as Japan, Italy and Spain to very low fertility levels (1.1). If this occurs it will result in even greater ageing of the population than is anticipated with major negative economic and social consequences. Accordingly many demographers are calling for Australia to adopt a fertility policy which enables couples to have the number of children they desire which surveys indicate to be an average of 2. In particular, it is suggested that family friendly practices which allow women to enjoy the same involvement in work and family as men would facilitate this (McDonald and Kippen 2000). Clearly Barossa-Light is an area where 9
children are disproportionately represented in the population and will continue to be so for some time. Table 9 shows that 21.3 percent of Barossa-Light s population are in the 0-14 age group compared with 18 percent of that of the ASD. Moreover, Table 10 indicates that this group is growing in Barossa-Light while in the ASD as a whole they are declining. Moreover the youth (15-24) and young adult (25-39) age groups are underrepresented in Barossa-Light compared to the State as a whole. This pattern is typical of all areas outside of the Capital City in that there is a significant outmigration of young adults at the age of leaving school or proceeding to tertiary education. Table 9: Source: Barossa-Light and Adelaide Statistical Division: Percentage Distribution of Population by Age, 2006 ABS 2006 Census Age Barossa-Light Adelaide Statistical Division 0-14 21.3 18.0 15-24 11.8 14.1 25-39 18.4 20.1 40-64 35.3 32.7 65-74 7.0 7.2 75+ 6.3 8.0 Total 100.0 100.0 Table 10: Source: Population Growth by Age, Barossa & Light and South Australia, 1996 to 2006 ABS 2006 Census, Time Series Profile Age Barossa & Light South Australia 1996 2006 % Change 1996 2006 % Change 0-14 6,395 7,000 9.5 294,939 280,825-4.8 15-24 3,258 3,879 19.1 195,975 200,865 2.5 25-39 3,690 3,617-2.0 213,666 185,745-13.1 40-64 10,856 14,036 29.3 530,033 613,771 15.8 65-74 2,032 2,302 13.3 116,513 115,096-1.2 75+ 1,567 2,074 32.4 86,067 118,034 37.1 The implications for population policy in Barossa-Light are: (a) That if the State is to pursue a policy of stabilising or slightly increasing fertility levels, which are considered necessary to ameliorate ageing effects, Barossa-Light is an area in 10
which such a policy and the associated programs should be targeted because young workers are strongly represented in the area. (b) Barossa-Light is increasing (and will continue to) increase its child population. It is crucial therefore that appropriate service provision is made for this increase. At a time where the number of children in the State as a whole are declining there is a danger that the provision of resources for children will decline. This must be guarded against and planning ensure there are sufficient resources available for the growing child population of the area. 2.3 Mortality As is the case in the rest of South Australia, the Barossa-Light areas have increased life expectancy substantially in recent decades. In Australia as a whole the 20 years up to 2002 saw 5.1 years of extra life added to men (to reach a life expectancy at birth of 77.3 years) and 3.1 years to women (82.6 years). Having said this, it is apparent from Table 11 that Light has death rates below the average for the ASD and South Australia although Barossa has a higher level. Although these measures are standardised by age it may be a function of the older age structure in the Barossa area. Despite these differences it appears as though we can use Australian life tables based on national mortality levels for projecting the population of the region. Table 11: Indirect Standardised Death Rate by Region, 2006 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Region Indirect Standardised Death Rate Light 5.7 Barossa 6.4 Total Adelaide 6.0 South Australia 6.1 Australia 6.1 2.4 Migration In considering migration at the State level we need to take account of both international and interstate migration but when we look at Barossa-Light we also need to include consideration of migration to and from other parts of the State. Firstly we will consider 11
1947-54 1954-61 1961-66 1966-71 1971-76 1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-2001 2001-2006 2006-07 Number international migration since this is likely to be an increasingly important factor in State population growth and in turn it will have an increasingly important influence on Barossa- Light s population. Figure 4 shows that South Australia s net gain from international migration has been lower over the last 2 decades than in the earlier postwar years. Figure 4: South Australia: Components of Population Change, 1947-54 to 2006-07 Source: Bell 1997; ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0-20000 -40000 Year Net overseas migration Net interstate migration In the former years, it attracted more than a tenth of the net national gain of international migrants but in the 1990s it has ranged between 2.4 and 4 percent. However, this has clearly changed in the last few years. This is partly because of the tight labour market conditions and availability of job opportunities but also because of State initiatives in migration. The State has set up an agency (Immigration SA) which has been very active in lobbying the federal government and in taking maximum advantage of a new suite of State Specific and Regional Migration (SSRM) measures which have been introduced. As Table 12 indicates, South Australia has been the destination of between 16.3 and 36.9 percent of all immigrants coming to Australia under these schemes between 1998 and 2007. Moreover, there have been a 12
number of new schemes introduced which especially favour South Australia. There are significant numbers in the pipeline so that almost certainly international migration will increase in the next few years. Table 12: Source: Number of Immigrants with Visas Granted Under the State Regional Specific Migration Mechanisms and Their Proportion of the Total Intake 1998-99 to 2006-07 DIAC Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, various issues; DIAC Immigration Update, various issues Year Total Percent Percent of Total Number SA Intake 1998-99 2,804 36.9 3.3 1999-2000 3,309 21.2 3.6 2000-01 3,846 19.5 3.6 2001-02 4,136 17.0 4.6 2002-03 7,941 16.7 8.5 2003-04 12,725 16.3 11.4 2004-05 18,697 26.5 15.2 2005-06 27,488 29.8 20.9 2006-07 25,845 27.7 18.4 Turning to interstate migration, the picture is less positive. South Australia has experienced a continuing net loss by migration to other States as is evident from Figure 4. It is important to realise that the data presented are net migration figures and that interstate migration is very much a two way circular pattern as is evident in Figure 5. In South Australia the outflow is selective of young people with high levels of skill and education while the inflow is selective of older and less well off people. The net loss of young skilled people is one of the major population challenges faced by the State. The outmovement per se is not a bad thing, indeed it is a testament to the quality of education in the State. The problem is that it needs to be compensated with an inflow of other young people and by a significant subsequent return migration of those leaving. Since migration is strongly selective of young adults, success by the State in its efforts to increase net gains of younger people through internal and international migration will have important implications for Barossa-Light. International migration has not played a big role in 13
Figure 5: South Australia: Net Interstate Migration Flows, 2003-06 Source: Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues Barossa-Light s growth in the past as has been the case in South Australia as a whole. Hence Table 13 shows that the proportion of Barossa-Light s population which is overseas-born is only 12.4 percent and this proportion has not changed in recent years. It is only a little over half of the proportion that Adelaide s overseas-born population make up of the total. Moreover, as Table 13 indicates the proportion of the migrant population that are from non- English speaking origin countries is smaller than is the case for the ASD. This indicates that despite the strong non-english German tradition in the Barossa it is now less multicultural than many parts of the Adelaide metropolitan area. Not only was the proportion of the population born in a foreign country in the two LGAs less than half that in the Adelaide Statistical Division but also among the foreign-born the proportion that are from non-english 14
Table 13: Source: South Australia, Adelaide Statistical Division and Barossa-Light: Overseas-Born Population, 2001 and 2006 ABS 2006 Census, Time Series Profile Barossa-Light Adelaide Statistical Division South Australia 2001 2006 2001 2006 2001 2006 % Overseas-Born 12.5 12.4 24.7 25.1 21.2 21.5 % Non-English Speaking of Overseas-Born 25.9 25.0 53.2 55.9 50.8 53.0 speaking counties is less than half that in the ASD. The main birthplace groups are shown in Table 14 and indicate that the UK-born are far and away the largest foreign-born group in the Barossa-Light area, making up 8.2 percent of the total regional population and two thirds of all foreign-born living in the area. The UK-born population grew by 12.3 percent over the 2001-06 period although this was smaller than the growth of the total population (14.5 percent). Indeed the rate of growth of the Australia-born population over the 2001-06 period (14.1 percent) was higher than that of the overseas-born (11.8) although both groups recorded healthy growth. It is interesting that German-born are the second largest overseas-born group in the region. Overall, however, the region has a low extent of multicultural diversity. This may change in the future if the local demand for workers was to outstrip local supplies. Nevertheless it is clear that population growth currently is being influenced through internal rather than international migration. Table 14: Barossa and Light: Birthplace Groups and Growth, 1996-2001 and 2001-2006 Source: ABS Time Series Profiles 1996 2001 2006 Growth 1996-2001 2001-2006 Mainly English Speaking 2644 2658 3054 14 396 Mainly non-english Speaking 966 930 1016-36 86 Total Overseas-born (minus NS) 3610 3588 4070-22 482 Main Birthplace Groups Australia 23374 24075 27479 701 3404 United Kingdom 2408 2397 2692-11 295 Germany 287 257 266-30 9 Netherlands 161 145 161-16 16 New Zealand 136 153 203 17 50 Other Countries 618 636 748 18 112 Not Stated 827 1086 1365 259 279 Total 27811 28749 32914 938 4165 15
The importance of internal migration in the growth of population in Barossa-Light is evident in Table 15 which shows the breakdown in the numbers of people residing in Barossa- Light at the time of the 2006 Census according to whether they lived at a different place of residence five years previously. This shows that the proportion of Barossa-Light residents who had moved house in the previous five years (40.9 percent) was higher than the proportion for the Adelaide Statistical Division (37.9 percent) and the State as a whole (38.4 percent). The small impact of international migration in the region is reflected in the fact that only 1.4 percent of the Barossa-Light 2006 population was overseas five years ago compared to 4.2 percent of Adelaide s and 3.4 percent of the State s population. On the other hand the proportion who were interstate five years ago was greater (4.1 percent compared to 3.6 and 3.8 percent) and elsewhere in South Australia (35 percent compared to 29.7 and 30.7 percent). Table 15: Source: South Australia, Adelaide Statistical Division and Barossa-Light: Place of Usual Residence 5 Years Ago by Sex, 2006 2006 Census of Population and Housing South Australia Adelaide Statistical Division Barossa-Light Number % Number % Number % Same usual residence 5 years ago as in 2006 828,650 61.6 611,521 62.1 17,511 59.1 Different usual address 5 years ago: Same Statistical Local Area (SLA) 121,359 9.0 67,774 6.9 2,867 9.7 Different SLA in: South Australia 292,202 21.7 224,978 22.8 7,481 25.3 Other State/Territory 51,532 3.8 35,590 3.6 1,218 4.1 Total 343,734 25.6 260,568 26.5 8,699 29.4 Overseas 45,921 3.4 41,047 4.2 410 1.4 Not Stated a 5,421 0.4 4,074 0.4 122 0.4 Total 516,435 38.4 373,463 37.9 12,098 40.9 Total 1,345,085 100.0 984,984 100.0 29,609 100.0 a Includes persons who stated that they lived at a different address 5 years ago but did not state that address. Note: Persons who did not state whether they were usually resident at a different address 5 years ago have been excluded from the table. Hence the predominant driver of population growth in the Barossa-Light area is internal migration. It is interesting that almost one in ten residents in the area moved house within the Barossa-Light area reflecting a high degree of local residential mobility. Of the residents, 16
2,867 had moved within their LGA while 416 moved from Barossa to Light and 390 in the opposite direction. Table 16 summarises the population census data on migration into and out of Barossa- Light in the last two censuses. It will be noted that there were net migration gains in both periods with an increase in net gains in 2001-06 as a result both of an increase in inmigration (of almost 1,000) and a decrease in outmigration. There are net gains from the ASD, OASD, rest of South Australia and other States indicating that the region has become a significant magnet to internal migrants. Table 16: Barossa-Light: In- and Out-Migration, 1996-2001 and 2001-06 Source: ABS 2001 and 2006 Censuses of Population and Housing Origin/Destination Area 1996-2001 2001-06 In Out Net In Out Net ASD 3,147 2,965 182 4,031 2,581 1,450 OASD (excl. Barossa) 341 382-41 425 309 116 Other SA 1,617 863 754 1,361 846 515 Other Australia 987 925 62 1,219 929 290 Total 6,092 5,135 957 7,036 4,665 2,371 Table 17: Source: Barossa-Light: Internal Migration To and From Other Parts of South Australia, 1996-2006 ABS 2001 and 2006 Censuses of Population and Housing LGA/Region In Out Net 1996-2001 2001-06 1996-2001 2001-06 1996-2001 2001-06 Gawler 694 1,099 760 762-66 +337 Playford 569 715 464 403 +105 +312 Salisbury 492 680 256 187 +236 +393 Tea Tree Gully 334 504 242 198 +92 +306 Other ASD 1,000 1,040 1,229 1,067-229 -27 Total ASD 3,089 4,038 2,951 2,617 +138 +1,421 Mallala 120 138 84 61 +36 +77 Other OASD 221 287 298 248-77 +39 Total OASD 341 425 382 309-41 +116 Clare and Gilbert Valley 153 137 71 69 +82 +68 Goyder 137 80 41 45 +96 +35 Other Mid North 227 213 134 145 +93 +68 Total Mid North 517 430 246 259 +271 +171 Mid Murray 208 228 150 176 +58 +52 Other Riverland-Murray 168 234 156 146 +12 +98 Total Riverland-Murray 376 462 306 322 +70 +150 Other SA 724 512 311 255 +413 +257 Total SA 4,118 5,817 3,285 3,766 +833 +2,051 17
It is interesting to examine the changing spatial dynamics of internal migration to and from the Barossa-Light region as is shown in Table 17. This table suggests that some interesting shifts are occurring in the internal migration dynamics influencing the Barossa- Light region. These include the following: There has been an increase in both in and out migration for the region between 1996-2001 and 2001-06 but that for inmigration (40.6 percent) was considerably larger than that for outmigration (14.6 percent). The main origin/destination of internal migrants has been the ASD. This accounted for 75 percent of inmigrants in 1996-2001 and 69.4 percent in 2001-06 while the percentages for outmigrants were higher at 89.8 percent in 1996-2001 and 69.5 percent. In the migration relationship with the ASD the most intensive interaction is with the northernmost LGAs of Gawler, Salisbury, Playford and Tea Tree Gully. In all cases except Gawler there was more inmigration to Barossa-Light than outmigration in the 1996-2001 period. However in 2001-06 there was a major change and there was an increase in net migration gains. There was 1,348 more people move into Barossa-Light than moved in the opposite direction (2,998 compared to 1,550). This would indicate an increase in movement to the fringes of metropolitan Adelaide and also in the numbers of commuters to Adelaide from Barossa-Light. There is a different migration relationship between Barossa-Light and the rest of the ASD. Table 17 shows that there was a net migration loss to this region although the loss was reduced between 1996-2001 and 2001-06. Some of the most substantial net migration losses were to the inner city LGAs of Adelaide, Norwood-Payneham-St. Peters and Unley. This reflects especially the movement of young adults to the city and favours areas with rental housing. The fact that there was a decline in the numbers moving into these parts of the ASD from Barossa-Light between 1996-2001 and 2001-06 suggests that there are more residents from Barossa-Light opting to stay there and commute daily to the City than to move to the City in recent years. Turning to the Outer Adelaide Statistical Division of which Barossa-Light is a part there has been a change from net outmigration in 1996-2001 to a gain in 2001-06. The main 18
area with which there is interaction is the adjoining LGA of Mallala and there is a net flow into Barossa-Light. With respect to other parts of South Australia there are flows to and from the nearby mid-north-yorke Peninsula region but the inflow and outflows both declined between the censuses and the overall net migration gain fell from 271 in 1996-2001 to 171 in 2001-06. To the east the Murray-Riverland area also sent more migrants to Barossa-Light than it received from them but the flows increased, especially that coming in to Barossa-Light. There is also some evidence (much of it anecdotal) of people moving into the Barossa who work on a fly in fly out basis on mining projects around Australia. Like locations such as the coastal areas of New South Wales, the Barossa has gained a reputation through its strong tourist viticulture reputation as a desirable place to live and has attracted small numbers of this group. A study by Morony (2003) investigated the nature, causes and implications of migration into the Barossa region. She found that the type of people who were migrating into the region were mainly nuclear families, full time employees, professionals and managers and people on medium to high incomes. There was also a significant number of retirees. On the other hand those leaving were mainly adolescent and young adults moving to Adelaide for education or employment. An important finding was that one third of those interviewed in her sample were people who had moved to the Barossa from the ASD and now commuted back to the city on a daily basis to work. Most of the inmigrants from Adelaide moved to the area for lifestyle reasons while most who moved from other parts of the State moved for employment based reasons. It is important to realise that all migration is selective by age. Figure 6 shows how at the 2001 census, a quarter of people in their 20s had moved in the last year compared with much lower levels in other age groups, especially the older groups. Hence migration can strongly shape the age structure of the population of a region. This is especially the case in a place like the Barossa-Light region where the incoming migrants have a different age structure than the outgoing migrants i.e. young families Vs young adults. It is useful then to examine the age-sex specific pattern of net migration over the 2001-2006 intercensal period 19
Net Migration and this is presented in Figure 7. This indicates that there are net gains of people in all age groups except the late teens and early twenties. There are more people moving out than in of the latter ages and this is reflected in the trough in Figure 7. On the other hand there are major net gains of young family age groups. Figure 6: Australia: Mobility Rates by Age, 2000-01 Source: ABS 2001 Census, unpublished data Figure 7: Barossa and Light: Net Migration Profile, 2001 to 2006 Source: ABS 2006 Census 400 300 Males Females 200 100 0-100 -200-300 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ Age group 20
3. THE ROLE OF COMMUTING In considering the processes of population growth and change in the Barossa-Light area it is crucial to consider the role of workers commuting in and out of the region. There are two ways in which the extension of community distances through improvements in transport may impinge upon population change in areas like Barossa-Light. (a) Firstly, in areas within the Outer Adelaide Statistical Division it has become increasingly possible for local people (especially young adults) to commute daily to work or attend educational institutions within the ASD. Whereas in the past it would have been necessary for them to migrate permanently into the city, the improvements in transport have allowed them to substitute commuting. (b) Secondly, city dwellers have increasingly been able to opt for living in more rustic perurban areas where they can practice a lifestyle which is different to that imposed by city living. However their ability to commute daily back into the city to work means that they can retain their Adelaide job while moving to places like Barossa-Light. Hence, the increase in commuting distances made possible by cheapening travel and improvement of roads and vehicles has increased the potential for areas like Barossa-Light to: (a) (b) retain residents who in earlier eras would have migrated to the city. Attract city rural retreaters seeking a rural life style while retaining the city job. We can analyse the existence of these trends in Barossa-Light by examining the Census of Population and Housing s data on Journey to Work. This data is derived from a question asking people in the workforce their place of work and this is cross tabulated against their place of usual residence to derive an origin-destination matrix of journey to work. Table 18 shows the difference between the number of workers residing in Barossa-Light SLAs and the numbers working in them at the 1996 and 2006 population census. They show both that there is a significant movement in to work in areas of the Barossa Valley where there is employment but also a movement of residents of the area out to work elsewhere, especially in Adelaide. There are a number of important trends evident in the table Firstly the number of jobs located in the Barossa-Light increased by 82.4 percent between 1996 and 2006 almost a doubling to reach 13,341 in 2006. The largest 21
number of jobs was in Angaston SLA where there was an increase of a third over the last decade. However the most substantial increase was in Light where the number almost reached 4,000 in 2006 trebling the number a decade ago. Secondly there was a significant increase in the number of workers who lived in Barossa Light over the 1996-2001 period of 65.6 percent and the number of workers living in the area outnumbered the number of workers who work in the area at both the 1996 and 2006 census. However the number of jobs in the area grew faster than the number of workers living in the area although both increased substantially. It is interesting that the largest number of workers in the area (and the fastest growing) is in Light where there are now three workers for every two jobs in the SLA. The opposite is the case with Angaston having four workers for every 5 jobs. Table 18: Barossa-Light: Working Population Residing In the Area and the Number of Workers Living in the Area, 1996-2006 Source: ABS Census of 1996 and 2006. SLA Number of Resident Workers 1996 2006 1996-2006 (% Change) Number Number of Number Number of Number Working in Resident Working in Resident Working in SLA Workers SLA Workers SLA Barossa Angaston 3,163 3,786 3,967 5,098 25.4 34.7 Barossa - Barossa 2,335 777 3,933 1,866 68.4 140.2 Barossa - Tanunda 1,834 1,743 2,373 2,433 29.4 39.6 Light 2,512 1,017 6,018 3,944 139.6 287.8 Total 9,844 7,323 16,291 13,341 65.6 82.4 Overall in the area just over half (53.8 percent) of residents in the four Barossa-Light SLAs working in the SLA in which they live. As Table 19 shows, this means that there is significant in commuting into the area. The most self contained area is Angaston where almost two thirds of jobs are filled by locals while the least is Tanunda where nearly two thirds of workers come in from the outside. 22
Table 19: Source: Barossa-Light: Residents in the Area Working In and Outside the Area, 2006 2006 Population Census. SLA Number of Jobs in Area Workers both Living and Working in Area Percent of Workers in Area from Outside No. % Barossa Angaston 5,098 3,343 65.6 34.4 Barossa - Barossa 1,866 1,059 56.8 43.2 Barossa - Tanunda 2,933 941 38.7 61.3 Light 3,944 1,836 46.6 53.4 Total 13,341 7,179 53.8 46.2 Where then do the 6,162 workers who move into Barossa-Light come from? There is very clearly significant movement between the four SLAs which make up the region. The diagonal in the matrix represents people living and working in the same SLA but it is apparent that there is substantial movement within the region. For example Light supplies 755 workers each day to Angaston, 87 to Barossa and 323 to Tanunda as well as 1,836 that work within the Table 20: Source: Origin-Destination Matrix of Journey to Work within the Barossa Light Region, 2006 2006 Population Census. Place of Usual Residence Barossa (DC) Barossa (DC) Barossa (DC) - Light (RegC) Total - Angaston Barossa Tanunda Barossa (DC) Angaston 2,343 90 532 345 3,310 Barossa (DC) - Barossa 386 1,059 209 211 1,865 Barossa (DC) - Tanunda 703 93 941 214 1,951 Light (RegC) 755 87 323 1,836 3,001 SLA boundaries. Table 21 shows that the proportion of workers in the Barossa-Light area is considerably lower in Light (66.1 percent) than in the other areas which suggest a certain amount of regional integration in the Barossa Valley labour market with the proportion of workers coming from within the region ranging between Barossa (71.3 percent) and Tanunda (82.4 percent). In all cases more than a tenth of workers travel daily from Adelaide varying between 10.2 percent in Angaston to 22.3 percent in Light. Most of those in the other category travel from the nearby Murraylands LGA. 23
Table 21: Barossa-Light: Origin of Workers to SLAs, 2006 Source: ABS 2006 Census. Percent SLA Within SLA Within ASD OASD Other No % Region Barossa Angaston 46.0 36.2 10.2 1.4 6.2 5,098 100 Barossa - Barossa 56.8 14.5 18.2 5.2 6.3 1,866 100 Barossa - Tanunda 38.7 43.7 12.5 1.0 4.1 2,433 100 Light 46.6 19.5 22.3 3.0 8.6 3,444 100 Having seen something of the workers travelling into SLAs in Barossa Light, we will now turn to those leaving. Since we have seen that there is significant intra-regional cross SLA movement, we will focus on movement out of the region. Table 22 shows that there is considerable variation across the region in the extent to which resident workers living in Barossa-Light work within the region. In both Angaston and Tanunda SLAs more than 4 out of every 5 workers are employed in the region. The major alternative destination is the Adelaide Statistical Division which is the place of work for over 36 percent of Light and Barossa workers but only 9.1 percent of Tanunda and 6.7 percent of Angaston. Table 22: Barossa Light Region: Resident Workers Place of Work, 2006 Source: ABS 2006 Population Census. Within Region ASD Other SLA Number No. % No % No. % Barossa Angaston 3,967 3,310 83.4 265 6.7 392 9.9 Barossa - Barossa 3,933 1,865 47.4 1,433 36.4 635 15.9 Barossa - Tanunda 2,373 1,951 82.2 216 9.1 237 8.7 Light 6,018 3,001 49.9 2,209 36.7 808 13.4 The connection with Adelaide Statistical Division is interesting. Each day 2,061 workers commute from Adelaide into the Barossa-Light region. They are passed by another 4,123 workers travelling in the other region from Barossa-Light to work in the ASD. There clearly are some significant worker linkages between Barossa-Light and the ASD. Moreover as Table 23 demonstrates there has been a substantial increase in commuting from Barossa- Light to Adelaide over the 2001-2006 period. This raises a number of questions Is this cross commuting a function of differentiation of labour markets with Barossa- Light having unique lifestyle attractions which result in it being able to attract rural- 24
retreaters who seek to continue to work in Adelaide based jobs while enjoying a rural lifestyle? Is there a differentiation in the type of workers moving into and out of the region daily? What role do housing markets and housing affordability play in shaping community patterns? What will be the impact of rising fossil fuel prices on the extent of commuting between Barossa-Light and the ASD? Table 23: Source: Barossa Light Region: Number of Residents Working in the Adelaide Statistical Division 2001 and 2006 ABS 2001 and 2006 Census. Percent Change SLA 2001 2006 2001-06 Barossa Angaston 238 265 11.3 Barossa - Barossa 1212 1433 16.6 Barossa - Tanunda 176 216 22.7 Light 1487 2209 48.6 3.1 Population Ageing The age structure of an area has profound implications for its social and economic wellbeing. One of South Australia s greatest challenges over the next few decades is to deal with the issue of ageing. However this is not just an issue in South Australia but in all OECD countries. Indeed the Chief Economist of the OECD (Cotis 2005) has stated: Over the next couple of decades nothing will impact OECD economies more profoundly than demographic trends and, chief among them, ageing. The situation is depicted in Figure 8. This shows that over the 1971 to 2031 period the age structure of the State will transition from one dominated by younger ages to one in which older populations are predominant. Over the next two decades: The number of South Australians aged 65+ will double. The population aged over 65+ will double its proportion of the total population. By 2012 there will be more South Australians aged over 65 than aged less than 15 for the first time in its entire history. ABS projections see the workforce age proportion of the State 25
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ Persons Figure 8: South Australia: Population by 5-Year Age Cohort, 1971, 2001 and 2031 Source: ABS Estimated Population Data and Projections 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Age Group 1971 2001 2031 ceasing to grow within the next decade. The main driver of this ageing is the baby boom generation born during the high fertility years of 1946 and 1965. The fact that fertility in the preceding 15 years was low and fell dramatically after 1965 has meant that the large number of baby boomers have formed a bulge in the nation s (and South Australia s) age pyramid. As it has aged it has rapidly increased the numbers in the age category it has moved into greatly increasing the demand for goods and services required by people in that age category. They are now poised to enter the 65+ age group and bring about an unprecedented growth in those ages but also having a number of other impacts including: A loss of a third of the State s workforce over two decades as the baby boomers retire. An increased pressure on health services. Pressure on the tax base as the ratio of workers to dependents declines. Pressures on aged care services. Rapid increases in the disabled population. Shifts in age structure also have substantial effects on demand for particular goods and services since demand for them varies considerably with age. Figure 9 shows how Barossa- 26
Age Group Light s age structure has changed over the last intercensal period. It will be noted that there has been growth in virtually all age groups but especially in the 45+ age groups and in the dependent child age groups. This contrasts to the picture in South Australia as a whole Figure 9: Source: Barossa and Light: Age and Sex Distribution of the Population, 2001 and 2006 ABS 2006 Census, Time Series Profile 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Males Females 1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500 Persons 2001 2006 depicted in Figure 10 which shows that virtually all gains were in the 45+ age group. Only in the 20-24 age group was there growth due to the substantial influx of foreign students to study in South Australian tertiary institutions. Hence the region differs significantly to the State population in that it has experienced significant growth of young families. 27
Age group Age Group Figure 10: Source: South Australia: Age and Sex Distribution of the Population, 2001 and 2006 ABS 2006 Census, Time Series Profile 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Males Female 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 Persons 2001 2006 It is important to point out also that Barossa-Light s age structure varies significantly to that of the State as a whole. This is indicated in Figure 11 which overlays the percentage age structure of Barossa-Light at the 2006 Australian Census with that for the State as a whole. Figure 11: South Australia and Barossa & Light Age Sex Structure, 2006 Source: ABS 2006 Census South Australia (shaded) and Barossa & Light 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Males Females 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Percent 28
The following patterns are noticeable: There is an under-representation of the older population in Barossa-Light reflecting the influx of young families The over- representation of the 40-54 younger baby boomer and young families age groups. An under-representation of persons aged 20-34 reflecting the outmigration of school leavers and new members of the workforce. An over-representation of children in Barossa-Light as a result of the movement of young families into the area and the higher than average fertility in Barossa-Light than in the State as a whole. The different age dynamics of Barossa-Light to those of the State are important. Table 24 shows how different age groups have grown over the last decade in Barossa-Light and in South Australia and the following are prominent: - Whereas the State saw a decline in the dependent population aged 0-14 there was a 10 percent growth in Barossa-Light. - Similarly in the youth population 15-24 while there was limited growth in the State the group in Barossa-Light grew by a fifth. Table 24: Barossa-Light and South Australia: Population Growth by Age, 1996-2006 Source: ABS 2006 Census, Time Series Profile Age Barossa and Light South Australia 1996 2006 % Change 1996 2006 % Change 0-14 6,395 7,000 9.5 294,939 280,825-4.8 15-24 3,258 3,879 19.1 195,975 200,865 2.5 25-34 3,690 3,617-2.0 213,666 185,745-13.1 35-64 10,856 14,036 29.3 530,033 613,771 15.8 65-74 2,032 2,302 13.3 116,513 115,096-1.2 75+ 1,567 2,074 32.4 86,067 118,034 37.1 - Both lost population in the young family 25-34 ages but this was much more marked in the State as a whole. 29
Age group - It is noticeable that Barossa-Light s population in the 35-64 ages grew twice as fast as that of the State as a whole indicating that the baby boomers may be a more prominent group in Barossa-Light than the State as a whole. - The younger retiree age group grew faster in Barossa-Light which may indicate that there may be some retirement or pre-retirement migration into the area. - While the 75+ population in Barossa-Light did not grow quite as fast as that in the State as a whole it still grew by a third indicating that there is an increasing demand for aged care services in the region. Thus far we have looked at age structure in the region as a whole but it is useful to see if there are any variations within Barossa-Light. Figure 12 overlays the age-sex structure of Angaston in 2006 with that in 2001 and it shows there was growth in most age groups. Figure 12: Angaston SLA: Age Sex Structure, 2001 and 2006 Source: ABS 2006 Census 2001 (shaded) and 2006 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male s Females 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 Number However, most growth was in the older population aged 45 and over. This indicates that there will be increased demand for aged care services in this area in the near future. There was a small decline in the number of children in the area. The age pyramid is quite different to that of Barossa which is depicted in Figure 13. While both show deficits in the 20 s and early 30 s 30
Age group age group which is typical of all Australian non-metropolitan areas the deficit is much more marked in Barossa than in Angaston. Young families are clearly the dominant group in Barossa although there was strong growth of the 55+ population between 2001 and 2006. Figure 13: Barossa SLA: Age Sex Structure 2001 and 2006 Source: ABS 2006 Census 2001 (shaded) and 2006 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Males Females 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 Number Tanunda s age structure, depicted in Figure 14, is similar to Angaston s and is a more mature age structure than that of Barossa. There was much less growth in Tanunda and the bulk of it is in older age groups reflecting the increasing role of the town as a retirement centre. Nevertheless there was a small growth in the number of dependent age children. The age pyramids for Light (Figure 15) show growth in all age groups but they are especially pronounced in the young families ages reflecting a significant inmigration of this group, and an increase in demand for the goods and services needed by children and young adults. Nevertheless a significant growth in the retiree population should also be noted. 31
Age Group Age group Figure 14: Tanunda SLA: Age Sex Structure, 2001 and 2006 Source: ABS 2006 Census 2001 (shaded) and 2006 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Males Females 200 150 100 50 0 50 100 150 200 Number Figure 15: Light LGA: Age and Sex Distribution of the Population, 2001 and 2006 Source: ABS 2006 Census 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Males Females 700 500 300 100 100 300 500 700 Persons 2001 2006 32
Index of Change: 1996=100 3.2 Families and Households Many of the services required by people are not so much individual needs but household needs. Hence, in examining the current and future needs for services, especially those supplied by local government, it is important to examine trends not just in the numbers and characteristics of people but also those in the numbers and characteristics of the households and families in which they group themselves. It is important to point out that in South Australia the number of households increased at a rate (0.90 percent per annum) faster than the population (0.51 percent) over the 1996-2001 intercensal period and 0.87 percent compared with 0.55 percent in 2001-06. This was not the case in Barossa-Light where the number of households increased by 2.33 percent per annum while population increased by 2.74 percent over the 2001-06 period. Nevertheless Figure 16 shows how the number of households has grown faster than the population in Barossa-Light overall for the last decade. This is an important point since the demand for many services provided by local government are made by households not individuals garbage collection, etc. The reasons why the number of households is increase faster than the population as a whole is that average household size is decreasing due to (Hugo 2005) Older persons staying in independent households longer than the past. Increasing separation and divorce leading to splitting of households Figure 16: Barossa and Light: Growth of Population and Households, 1996 to 2006 Source: ABS 2006 Census, Time Series Profile 130 Households 120 Population 110 100 1996 2001 2006 Year Nevertheless the fact that Barossa-Light has such a young age structure and significant inmigration of young families has meant that while the average size of household in South 33
Australia as a whole declined from 2.5 in 2001 to 2.4 in 2006 that in Barossa-Light increased from 2.6 to 2.7 over the same period. Hence, Barossa-Light differs from the State as a whole in that the average size of household is greater and that it is increasing. However it is not just the number and size of households that is important but also their composition. Table 25 shows that the distribution Table 25: Source: Adelaide Statistical Division and Barossa-Light: Households and Families, 2001-2006 ABS Population Censuses Adelaide Statistical Division Barossa- Light 2006 2006 %Difference Household/Family Type Number Percent Number Percent 2001-2006 Single person 121,274 27.1 2,464 20.0 8.5 Group 15,768 3.5 240 1.9 5.3 Couple without children 112,344 26.1 3,806 30.9 12.4 Couple with children 126,305 28.2 4,382 35.6 10.8 Single Parent 49,705 11.1 978 7.9 20.6 of types of households in Barossa-Light differ from those of the Adelaide Statistical Division in that Single person households are not as significant reflecting the younger age structure. This also accounts for the couples with children household proportion being lower. Couples with children is greater reflecting the inmigration of young families. Single parent families is a smaller proportion reflecting a higher income population in the area and low percentage of people living in rental accommodation, especially Housing Trust. It is also relevant to establish the extent to which particular household types are increasing. Hence, Table 26 shows that the number of households in Barossa-Light increased by 24.3 percent over the last decade. However it is interesting that traditional households of couples with children grew more slowly at 15 percent. On the other hand the numbers of single parent families increased more than twice as fast so that they are becoming increasingly important in the area. The ageing of the population is also evident in the rapid increase in the number of single person and couple only households. 34
Table 26: Source: Barossa and Light: Household Composition, Occupied Private Dwellings ABS Censuses Number Percent Increase 1996 2001 2006 1996-2006 Family household: One family household: Couple family with no children 2,928 3,372 3,784 29.2 Couple family with children 3,781 3,933 4,348 15.0 One parent family 696 787 947 36.1 Other family 83 71 80 - Total 7,488 8,163 9,159 22.3 Multiple family household 45 54 86 - Total family households 7,533 8,217 9,245 - Non family household: Lone person household 1,971 2,270 2,467 25.2 Group household 204 227 238 16.7 Other household (d) 194 262 363 87.1 Total 2,369 2,759 3,068 29.5 Total 9,902 10,976 12,313 24.3 3.3 Labour Force and Skills As is indicated in the SA Population Strategy (Government of South Australia 2004,7), the low fertility in the state and interstate net migration has meant that the tightening of the labour market due to demographic factors will occur more quickly in South Australia than in Australia as a whole. Thus there are impending and in some sectors, already apparent, labour shortages. This augers well for increasing labour force participation and reducing unemployment, both of which are already lower in Barossa-Light than in ASD at present as Table 27 indicates. The ability of individuals to respond effectively to the changed labour market conditions is going to be influenced by the skills that they have. The proportion of workers and potential workers in Barossa-Light with non-school qualifications is lower than the State average which is lower than the national average. Barossa-Light is an area where the need for policies which bring those who are currently excluded from the workforce to become engaged in it is needed. The demographic tightening of the labour market requires such policies although social justice considerations already renders them imperative. It is apparent that training and retraining are crucial if such new engagement is to take place. More broadly it will be necessary to develop workforce development strategies that address skill shortages arising from the ageing of the workforce. Barossa-Light could seek to 35
develop a regional strategy which complements the State Government s workforce development strategy. A regional workforce development strategy should aim to provide opportunities for the engagement of Barossa-Light residents who are currently unemployed or underemployed. It should also seek to foster and support retention of existing employees in the region and identify opportunities for skilled migrants to fill identified skill shortages. This will require the development of research infrastructure to assist industry to identify likely future skill shortages and apply best practice approaches to workforce planning. Table 27: Source: Adelaide Statistical Division and Barossa-Light: Labour Force Indicators, 2001 and 2006 ABS Population Censuses Adelaide Statistical Division % Change Barossa-Light % Change Labour Force Indicator 2001 2006 2001-2006 2001 2006 2001-2006 Labour force participation rate (M) 68.2 69.0 1.2 65.0 74.9 1.5 (F) 53.2 56.5 6.2 43.9 60.4 7.5 Unemployment rate (M) 8.8 5.6-36.4 15.2 3.2-28.9 (F) 6.8 4.9-27.9 12.5 4.2-2.3 Youth unemployment rate (15-19) (M) 19.7 15.9-19.3 27.9 13.1 13.9 (F) 17.6 13.2-25.0 27.2 12.7-3.1 % Non School Qualification (M) 44.8 54.2 10.2 30.9 50.0 10.9 (F) 30.4 45.1 19.6 16.6 40.6 18.4 % Professionals (M) 17.0 18.6 4.5 6.4 10.7-5.3 (F) 21.7 23.4 7.3 10.4 17.6 1.7 % Labourer and related worker (M) 10.5 13.2 7.3 17.6 21.0 2.4 (F) 7.7 8.7-2.2 14.7 16.1-1.8 The unemployment situation in the four SLA in the area is depicted in Table 28. This indicates that all areas experienced a reduction in unemployment between the 2001 and 2006 censuses indicating the overall improvement in the labour market situation in the State and nation as a whole. Nevertheless, despite significant reductions between the censuses youth unemployment (ages 15-24) remains an issue in the region. It is interesting that there is substantial variation within Barossa-Light in this respect with male youth unemployment being high in Light and that for females is high in Barossa. 36
Occupation Table 28: Barossa-Light: Labour Force Characteristics, 2006 Source: ABS 2006 Census, Usual residence Percent Unemployed 2006 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+ Total Males Females Males Females Males Females Males Females Males Females Barossa (DC) 6.3 9.3 2.2 3.8 2.3 2.2 0.0 0.0 2.8 3.9 Angaston SLA 4.7 9.7 2.7 3.6 2.1 2.5 0.0 0.0 2.9 4.1 Barossa SLA 7.6 14.0 2.0 4.7 2.7 2.3 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.7 Tanunda SLA 6.7 4.8 1.1 2.3 1.7 1.3 0.0 0.0 2.2 2.3 Light (RegC) 12.2 9.0 1.8 4.8 2.8 2.5 0.0 0.0 3.7 4.5 2001 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+ Total Males Females Males Females Males Females Males Females Males Females Barossa (DC) 7.0 8.4 3.8 3.7 2.5 2.0 1.9 0.0 3.8 3.7 Angaston SLA 4.9 7.1 3.1 2.8 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 2.5 Barossa SLA 12.1 11.7 4.8 4.2 3.6 4.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 4.8 Tanunda SLA 4.7 9.7 3.3 4.0 2.0 0.0 8.3 0.0 3.2 3.5 Light (RegC) 13.4 11.1 5.1 5.1 4.3 2.8 0.0 0.0 5.8 5.2 The dynamics of change in the Barossa-Light labour market are apparent in Figure 17 which shows changes in the numbers employed in broad occupation groups between 1991 and 2006. The largest single group are labourers but there has been a decline in the proportion labourers made up of the total workforce between 2001 and 2006 despite the expansion in the local number of job opportunities. Increasingly it may be that these low skilled workers are Figure 17: Barossa LGA and Light (RegC): Percent Major Occupation Groups, 1991 to 2006 Source: ABS 2006 Census Labourers and Related Workers Elementary Clerical, Sales and Service Workers Intermediate Production and Transport Workers Intermediate Clerical, Sales and Service Workers Advanced Clerical and Service Workers Tradespersons and Related Workers Associate Professionals 2006 2001 1996 1991 Professionals Managers and Administrators 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 Percent 37
forced to live outside the region and commute in on a daily basis by the lack of low cost housing options in Barossa-Light, especially Barossa. This is perhaps underlined by the decline or stability of other semi skilled categories. There also has been a decline in the percentage made up by managers over the period. This reflects the reduction in the number of farmers as urban based usersreplaces rural users of land. There has been an increase in the proportion of workers who are professional or semi professional reflecting the increased in migration of commuters to the ASD. It is interesting to look in more detail at the occupations held by residents in Barossa and Light LGAs. Table 29 and Table 30 show the ten main male and female occupations in the two LGA. The dominance of wine-industry related activity in the Barossa is evident in the fact that the largest male occupations are factory process workers, engineers, farm managers and workers and specialist managers who together account for almost 4 out of every 10 workers. For women on the other hand it is the typical non-metropolitan area mix of sales persons, teachers, nurses and carers although factory workers are very important. In Light the traditional agricultural basis of the economy is still in evidence. Table 29: Barossa (DC): Top 10 occupations for Males and Females, 2006 Source: ABS 2006 Census Top ten occupations for Males Percent Factory Process Workers 9.7 Automotive and Engineering Trades Workers 7.6 Farmers and Farm Managers 7.6 Specialist Managers 7.1 Farm, Forestry and Garden Workers 6.3 Road and Rail Drivers 4.4 Design, Engineering, Science and Transport Professionals 4.2 Hospitality, Retail and Service Managers 3.8 Construction Trades Workers 3.6 Mobile Plant Operators 3.6 Top ten occupations for Females Percent Sales Assistants and Salespersons 8.1 Education Professionals 6.8 Carers and Aides 6.1 Factory Process Workers 6.0 Health Professionals 5.2 Numerical Clerks 4.6 Cleaners and Laundry Workers 4.4 Hospitality, Retail and Service Managers 4.0 General Clerical Workers 4.0 Specialist Managers 3.9 38
Table 30: Light (RegC): Top 10 Occupations for Males and Females, 2006 Source: ABS 2006 Census Top ten occupations for Males Percent Farmers and Farm Managers 10.8 Automotive and Engineering Trades Workers 8.9 Factory Process Workers 6.8 Specialist Managers 6.7 Road and Rail Drivers 5.6 Farm, Forestry and Garden Workers 5.5 Construction Trades Workers 5.1 Hospitality, Retail and Service Managers 3.8 Electrotechnology and Telecommunications Trades Workers 3.6 Mobile Plant Operators 3.6 Top ten occupations for Females Percent Sales Assistants and Salespersons 8.6 Carers and Aides 7.9 Health Professionals 6.2 Education Professionals 5.6 Farmers and Farm Managers 5.0 Numerical Clerks 4.9 General Clerical Workers 4.8 Factory Process Workers 4.7 Cleaners and Laundry Workers 4.5 Hospitality, Retail and Service Managers 4.0 A sense of the dynamics of change of the economy in the Barossa-Light region can be gained by examining the changing relative significance of different types of jobs in the region over the 1991-2006 period. Hence Table 31 shows that there was a substantial growth in the significance of professionals and associate professionals over the period from 20.2 percent of the workforce in 1991 to 24.8 percent in 2006. This reflects the influx of commuters to the Table 31: Barossa & Light: Occupation Classification by Year, 1991 to 2006 Source: ABS Censuses Year Occupation 1991 1996 2001 2006 Managers and Administrators 16.4 14.5 13.8 12.9 Professionals 12.9 14.3 13.9 14.1 Associate Professionals 7.3 9.7 10.4 10.7 Tradespersons and Related Workers 14.8 13.7 13.0 13.6 Advanced Clerical and Service Workers 4.9 3.1 3.0 2.5 Intermediate Clerical, Sales and Service Workers 9.7 13.0 13.0 13.8 Intermediate Production and Transport Workers 8.7 9.0 8.6 8.8 Elementary Clerical, Sales and Service Workers 8.7 6.3 7.0 7.4 Labourers and Related Workers 16.5 16.4 17.3 16.1 N 9,319 11,761 13,715 15,932 39
Table 32: Barossa & Light: Industry Classification by Year, 1996 to 2006 Source: ABS Censuses Percentage 1996 2001 2006 Agriculture, forestry & fishing 13.4 14.2 10.9 Mining 0.7 0.6 0.9 Manufacturing 23.7 23.7 23.3 Electricity, gas, water & waste services 0.6 0.7 0.7 Construction 5.2 5.4 6.9 Wholesale trade 4.1 3.4 3.0 Retail trade 8.1 9.4 9.6 Accommodation & food services 4.6 5.3 5.4 Transport, postal & warehousing 3.3 3.9 4.3 Information media & telecommunications 1.6 1.1 0.9 Financial & insurance services 1.9 1.4 1.6 Rental, hiring & real estate services 1.2 1.0 1.0 Professional, scientific & technical services 3.0 2.8 3.1 Administrative & support services 3.0 3.8 3.8 Public administration & safety 4.0 3.5 4.2 Education & training 8.1 7.3 7.1 Health care & social assistance 8.5 8.3 9.1 Arts & recreation services 1.2 1.2 1.0 Other services 3.7 3.3 3.2 Total 100.0 100.0 0.0 ASD. The proportion of managers and administrators declined as primary producers were reduced in number as land use changed away from agriculture to more peri-urban uses. The change is also reflected in the shift of different types of industries in the employment structure in 1991 and 2006 as indicated in Table 32. This shows that manufacturing remained the largest category but agriculture declined in importance over the period. 4. POPULATION VISION AND PROJECTIONS 4.1 Introduction The South Australia Population Strategy (Government of South Australia 2004, 8) currently points out the need for the State to develop a vision for its future population to secure and nurture a population that sustains its long term development as a modern economy and a robust, vibrant and culturally diverse community. The size, nature and distribution of the States future population is an important ingredient in shaping the future prosperity, sustainability and equity of the State. Accordingly, in this chapter we review some 40
population projections for the future population of Barossa-Light and assess the likely effects the region of the various future population scenarios prepared for South Australia. 4.2 Projections of Barossa-Lights Future Population As was indicated earlier, the ABS has undertaken a series of projections which give an indication of what South Australia s population will look like over the next two decades if the demographic trends of the last decade are maintained. While they have made their projections available down to the SLA level we will use here the projections made on the basis of the 2001 census by Planning SA which in our judgement are closer to the actual and likely potential pattern of population change in the region. These will be updated during the next year based on the 2006 population census and are likely to show higher levels of population growth. Nevertheless examination of the existing proportions presents a picture of probably what can be expected, given current trends, to be the lower bound of likely future population growth. The anticipated growth is shown in Table 33 and indicated that Barossa-Light is Table 33: South Australia: Population Growth by Region, 2006 to 2021 Source: ABS 2006 Census and Planning SA Projections Year Growth Rate Per Annum (%) 2006 2011 2021 2006-2011 2011-2021 2006-2021 Barossa 21,060 22,327 24,509 1.18 0.94 1.02 Light 12,296 13,959 15,185 2.57 0.85 1.42 Adelaide Statistical Division 1,138,833 1,157,800 1,201,300 0.33 0.37 0.36 South Australia 1,568,204 1,576,100 1,625,200 0.10 0.31 0.24 likely to grow faster than both the State and the ASD over the 2006-11 and 2011-21 periods. Of course the actual trajectory of growth is highly dependent on a number of considerations that are not within the scope or ability of this study to anticipate. These include... Government attitudes toward containing Adelaide s growth within the current boundaries of the ASD which adjoins Barossa-Light to the south. Any extension of ASD boundaries and subsequent release of land within Barossa-Light for metropolitan subdivision would see a boost to growth especially in Light. The extent to which SA continues to be successful in attracting international migrant settlers which will put more pressure on land within the ASD. 41
Age group The economic situation which of it remains buoyant would see increased pressure on the region as a dormitory for high end Adelaide workers as well as local demand for workers in the wine industry, tourism and other peri-urban activity. The extent to which the government seeks to preserve areas within Barossa-Light as scarce agricultural land or heritage wine growing area and zone out residential development. Nevertheless these projections are indicative of the change that can be anticipated in the population of Barossa-Light over the next 15 years. As was discussed earlier it is important not only to project forward the total population but also the age structure since that is crucial for planning services and infrastructure in the region. Figure 18 overlays the projected 2021 population for the region with that enumerated at the 2006 population census. The key point Figure 18: Barossa & Light: Age Sex Structure, 2006 and 2021 Source: SA Planning Population Projections Barossa & Light 2006 (shaded) and 2021 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Males Females 2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Number here is clearly that there are two age groupings where Barossa-Light is anticipated to experience significant growth over the next 15 years 1. As is the case in South Australia as a whole the most substantial growth will occur in the older groups. This is a function of the significant numbers of baby boomers that 42
Age group currently live in the area and will age up into the 55+ age groups in 2021. It is noticeable however that much of the growth will be in the young old age groups and that much of the intensive pressure on health and other aged services is likely to occur in the 2020s and 2030s rather than the 2010s. 2. There will be a more modest growth in young families-adults in their 30s and dependent age children. This differentiates Barossa-Light from South Australia as a whole. The extent of growth in these ages will depend very much on the factors enumerated on the last page as being crucial elements in policy influencing the development of the region over the next two decades. The differences between the projected populations of Barossa-Light and that of South Australia as a whole are evident in Figure 19 which overlays its projected age structure in 2021 with that for South Australia. This indicates that the proportion of residents in the intensive users of aged and health care services over 70 years of age are less in Barossa-Light Figure 19: South Australia and Barossa & Light Age Sex Structure, 2021 Source: SA Planning Population Projections 85+ South Australia (shaded) and Barossa & Light 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Males Females 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Percent than in the State as a whole so that the pressure on these services will be less there than more generally in South Australia. However it also should be noted that the age groups 50-69 are significantly over represented in Barossa-Light. Hence in the 2020s and 2030s these will 43
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-79 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ Percent Change move into the old-old ages where they will put pressure on health, aged care and specialised housing services. Barossa-Light is likely to have a greater proportion of its population in young families and an under representation of young adults. The key issue here is the same as for South Australia although not quite as extreme. The basic point is that most of Barossa-Light s population growth in the next two decades will be in the older ages. This is graphically evident in Figure 20 which shows the projected growth pattern for each five year age group over the 2001-2021 period. Especially in the latter period most of the increase in population will occur in older ages as the large groups of baby boomers replace the much smaller numbers of people born in the 1930s and early 1940s in these older age categories. There will be more growth in the young dependent and working ages than in the State as a whole but the bulk of growth will be in the older age groups. The actual level of growth of children and working age people will depend on fertility trends as well as international and internal migration but the broad pattern of growth depicted in Figure 20: Barossa and Light LGAs: Change by Age: 2001-2011; 2021 Source: Planning SA based on Jackson, 2004 140 120 100 2001-2011 (36,286) 2001-2021 (39,694) 80 60 40 20 0-20 Age Figure 20 will occur. We especially can be sure of the growth of the older population. This is not crystal ball gazing. Most of these future older people are real people who are already living in Barossa-Light who will age in place into those older age groups. Nothing is at all likely to occur which will change this. 44
Table 34: Barossa Light: Actual and Projected Change by Age, 2001-2021 Source: ABS 2001 and 2006 Censuses, SA Planning Population Projections, 2001 Actual Projected Cohort 2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021 Total 0-4 283-41 113 4 359 5-9 268-47 59 89 369 10-14 186 109-28 33 300 15-19 278 102-21 -69 290 20-24 252 335-172 -24 391 25-29 15 486-32 -197 272 30-34 226 98 301-68 557 35-39 83 11 4 276 374 40-44 177-262 116-30 1 45-49 510-31 -268 95 306 50-54 416 428-1 -279 564 55-59 551 489 406-6 1,440 60-64 383 658 364 383 1,788 65-69 203 448 481 333 1,465 70-74 52 250 299 435 1,036 75-79 77 102 150 275 604 80-84 109 66 38 126 339 85+ 95 177 116 107 495 Total 4,164 3,378 1,925 1,483 10,950 The projected change in numbers is presented in Table 34. The patterns described above are repeated. Again we must stress that while a degree of uncertainty surrounds the numbers in the younger ages little applies to the older age groups. 4.3 Planning for South Australia s Population Targets The approach taken in the State Government s Population Policy, announced in 2004, was to set a number of population related targets (South Australian Government 2004). These were subsequently slightly amended as part of the Review of State Strategic Plan (South Australian Government 2007) and the revised targets are presented in Table 35. The key target which has attracted most attention has been for South Australia to reach a target of two million people by 2050. Based on the State s population of 1,470,057 in 2001, an annual increase in population of nearly 11,000 new residents would be needed each year to reach the target. This meant that over the first five years, annual population increase would need to be marginally higher than 0.7 per cent, and then maintained at levels higher than 0.65 per cent until 2021. At the time of release of the population policy growth rates would not achieve the 45
Table 35: South Australia: Strategic Plan Population Targets Source: South Australian Government 2007 Target 1.22: Total Population Increase South Australia s population to 2 million by 2050, rather than the projected pop n decline. Interim target of 1.64 million by 2014. Target 1.23: Interstate Migration Reduce net loss to interstate to zero by 2010 with a positive inflow from 2010-14 Target 1.24: Overseas Migration Match SA s share of international migrants to Australia with the State s share of the overall national pop n over the next 10 years. Net overseas gain to be 8,500 by 2014. Target 1.25: Fertility Maintain at TFR of 1.7 Target 5.9: Regional Populations Maintain and develop viable regional population levels for sustainable communities. Keep share at 18 percent. policy s target. In the 12 months to September 2004, South Australia s population increased by 8,000, or 0.5 per cent. In the three years from September 2001, the number of persons in the State increased by 23,000, or 1.5 per cent. However there has been a dramatic change since then as is evident in Table 36. Since the introduction of the policy, the annual growth Table 36: South Australia: Population Growth, 2000-2007 Source: ABS Australian Demographic Statistics Quarterly, various issues Year Number Percent Australia Percent 2000-01 6,690 0.44 1.36 2001-02 9,391 0.63 3.92 2002-03 10,140 0.67 4.13 2003-04 9,140 0.60 3.89 2004-05 12,124 0.79 4.54 2005-06 15,651 0.99 5.19 2006-07 16,309 1.04 5.17 rate has increased each year from 0.6 percent in 2004 to 0.79 in 2004-05, 0.99 in 2005-06 and 1.04 percent in 2006-07. The States share of national population growth increased from 3.9 percent to 5.2 percent, still below its proportionate share. What does this mean for the 46
population target? Table 37 shows when the 2 million target would be attained if the annual population growth levels of 2005-06 and 2006-07 were maintained. These suggest that 2 million would be reached in 2034 and 2030 respectively. Hence, it would seem that the target is likely to be reached well before 2051. The key question here is how will that growth be distributed between different local government areas within the State? Table 37: South Australia: Population if Current Rate of Growth Maintained 2005-6 2006-7 2006 1,558,230 2007 1,584,513 2011 1,629,624 2011 1,651,464 2021 1,782,375 2021 1,831,481 2031 1,949,444 2030 2,010,215 2034 2,002,554 2031 2,031,122 2041 2,132,173 2041 2,252,523 2050 2,311,228 2050 2,472,346 In order to approach this it is necessary to examine the separate demographic processes influencing population growth. The principal means available to increase population hinge on: Halting the net interstate migration loss Increasing the State s intake of international migration Increasing fertility levels, at best, or at least stabilising fertility levels. Accordingly, Table 30 shows that targets were set for each of these processes in the Population Policy document and slightly modified in the 2007 review. The first target (1.23) is to reduce net interstate migration loss to zero by 2010 (previously it was 2008). This objective is not on track as is evident in Table 38 which shows that net interstate migration loss has continued and in 2006-07 was at its highest level since 1996-97. There are a number of reasons to question whether it is realistic to reduce interstate migration loss. These include South Australia s peripheral position in the national economy which means that there will always be an outmigration of young people to live in major cities to forward their careers and experience life in a world city. 47
The increase in overseas immigration. There is a long history in South Australia of immigrants being more likely to move interstate than the Australia-born (Hugo and Hinsliff 2007). Table 38: South Australia: Components of Population Change, 1996-2007 Source: ABS 2002, pp. 11-12; ABS 2007, pp. 11-14 Year Natural Increase Net Migration Net Overseas Net Interstate Migration Migration 1996-97 6,951-1,524 3,104-4,628 1997-98 6,602 1,194 3,160-1,966 1998-99 6,751 1,051 2,682-1,631 1999-2000 6,306 298 3,829-3,531 2000-01 5,495 347 2,765-2,418 2001-02 5,772 1,196 2,798-1,335 2002-03 5,198 2,686 3,904-1,218 2003-04 5,318 1,368 4,305-2,937 2004-05 5,832 3,770 7,020-3,250 2005-06 5,845 7,222 9,813-2,591 2006-07 6,726 9,583 13,146-3,563 The third aim in Table 35 relates to international migration and the picture here is quite a different one. Net overseas migration gain has trebled during the period since the Population Policy was initiated and was at its highest level for several decades in 2006-07. This exceeds the expectations of the Policy and the State Strategic Plan and has been due to A buoyant local economy which has created a demand for workers in a number of sectors. The States skillful lobbying and focussed use of the State Specific and Regional Migration Scheme (SSRM) which has provided advantages to potential migrants opting to settler in the State (Hugo forthcoming a and b). The setting up of dedicated bodies Immigration SA and Education Adelaide which have been successful in increasing numbers of settlers and overseas students coming to Adelaide and South Australia more generally. The State s reliance on the SSRM scheme to underwrite its rapid increase in immigration is evident in Figure 21. 48
Fertility is a more difficult demographic process to influence by policy but Australia has experience an unexpected increase in fertility over the last five years and the increase has been greater than the national average in South Australia. Accordingly TFR targets (Table 30) have been achieved and national increase has been a significant contributor to population growth (Table 38) The final strategic plan target (5.9) was to maintain the regional population share of the state population at 18 percent. This is currently on track with regional growth being similar to the ASD growth over the 2001-06 intercensal period although the growth in the former was very much concentrated in the OASD. Figure 21: Source: Australia: Settler Arrivals by State According to whether they are State Specific and Regional Migration Scheme Migrants or Other Migrants, 2005-06 DIMA unpublished data If the State population policy can achieve its goal, significant implications can be anticipated for the Barossa-Light region. The population of Barossa-Light would be 39,694 in 49