I. INTRODUCTION TO POPULATION Economic Geography Unit 2: Population A. Aspects of Population (3) 1. Number of People 2. Spatial Distribution 3. Demographic Composition B. Demography World Cartogram II. WORLD POPULATION - LEVELS is 6.987 Billion ( PRB 2011) Largest China 1.35 Billion (20% of World) US Ranks 3 rd with 312 Million (2011 Estimate) 10 Largest countries house 2/3 of world s population 1
World s Most Populous Countries (2011 prb) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. III. WORLD POPULATION - DISTRIBUTION A. Density 1. Arithmetic Density (2010 World Atlas) Mongolia (193 rd ) - 5 ppmi 2 U.S. (142 nd ) - 83 ppmi 2 Egypt (92 nd ) - 203 ppmi 2 Bangladesh (6 th ) - 2,957 ppmi 2 Monaco (1 st ) - 42,734 ppmi 2 http://worldatlas.com/aatlas/populations/ctydensityh.htm Arithmetic Density Physiological Density 2
Dot Density II. WORLD POPULATION - DISTRIBUTION A. Density Arith. Dens Phys. Dens. (persons/mi2) (persons/mi2) Japan 873 (22 nd ) 7563 Egypt 203 (92 nd ) 7026 III. WORLD POPULATION - DISTRIBUTION B. Global Patterns Major Population Clusters (5) 1) 2) 90% population on 10% of land 90% north of equator Live along Coasts East side of Continents (mid-latitudes) Altitude: below 1/3 mile above MSL 3) 4) 5) Total 73% 3
III. WORLD POPULATION - DISTRIBUTION B. Global Patterns Explanation of Clusters 1. 2. 3. Historical Population Growth World USA Year Pop (M) RPG Year RNI 0 300 0.05 1920 0.6 1820 1000 0.5 1930 1.1 1930 2000 0.64 1940 1 1950 2500 1.47 1950 1 1962 3100 2.19 * highest 1960 1.8 1975 4000 1.75 1970 2.1 1990 5280 1.56 1980 1.7 2011 6987 1.1 1990 1.6 2025 8084 0.81 projection 2011 0.5 0.9 RPG Year MDC LDC 2011 1.24 B 5.75 B 2025 1.29 B 6.79 B 2050 1.33 B 8.25 B MDCs vs. LDCs Population and Annual Growth 4
World RNI C. Annual Growth (PRB) 2011 RPG 2011 2011 World Annual Increase Year RPG Chg (M) 1955 1.88 53 1965 2.07 70 1975 1.75 72 1985 1.69 83 1995 1.39 79 2000 1.21 74 2011 1.09 83 http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldpop.html World RPG and Annual Increase Growth MDCs vs LDCs 5
C. Annual Growth 1. Demographic Equation Future Pop = Current Pop + births deaths + immigrants emigrants Crude Birth Rate (CBR) = # births in year / 1000 people Crude Death Rate (CDR) = # deaths in year / 1000 people Natural Increase (NI) = CBR CDR (produces a whole number) Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) = (CBR CDR) / 100 World CBR World CDR Crude = population as a whole not age / gender specific Can you see potential problems with this? Address those later. 1. Demographic Equation - Revisited Future Pop = Current Pop + births deaths + immigrants emigrants Pf Pc + [Births Deaths] + (In-mig) (Out-mig) Substitute: CBR, CDR, Net Migration (positive or negative) Pf Pc + [CBR CDR] + Net Migration Simplify: [CBR CDR] =???? World RPG and Growth Year RPG Chg (M) 1955 1.88 53 1965 2.07 70 1975 1.75 72 1985 1.69 83 1995 1.39 79 2000 1.21 74 2011 1.09 83 Pf Pc + [NI] + Net Migration 6
2. Population Doubling Time Number of years for current population to double Based upon the RPG (world) or RNI (country) Small changes in rate have dramatic impact on number / time to double. Shows how population momentum can work. Consider interest rates at bank or return on mutual funds Billions # Years Year 1 1400 1820 2 110 1930 4 45 1975 6.9 36 2011 Current World RPG of 1.09% (2011) means the world is doubling approximately every 66 yrs World Doubling Times World RNI Kazakhstan Pop Pyramids (momentum) Country 2003 2050 RNI Change TFR Russia 145.5 119.1-0.7-18% 1.3 Ukraine 47.8 38.4-0.8-20% 1.1 Kazakhstan 14.8 13.3 0.5-10% 1.8 Belarus 9.9 8.5-0.5-14% 1.3 Azerbaijan 8.2 11.6 0.8 41% 1.9 Tajikistan 6.6 10 1.4 53% 2.4 Turkmenistan 5.7 8.8 1.3 55% 2.2 Kyrgyzstan 5 7.1 1.3 41% 2.4 Georgia 4.7 2.6 0-43% 1.1 Lithuania 3.5 3.1-0.3-10% 1.2 Armenia 3.2 3.4 0.6 4% 1.7 Latvia 2.3 1.8-0.5-24% 1.2 Estonia 1.4 0.9-0.4-35% 1.3 7
IV. WORLD POPULATION GROWTH D. Infant Mortality and Fertility Rates Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = # deaths 0-1 yrs per 1000 births World IMR Comparison INFANT MORTALITY RATES 2011 (deaths in 0-1 yrs / 1000 births) Africa 74 World 44 Asia 39 Latin America 19 Australia /NZ 4 USA / Canada 6 Europe 6 World IMR IV. WORLD POPULATION GROWTH D. Infant Mortality and Fertility Rates Fertility Rate (FR) = # births in year / 1000 females Total Fertility Rate (TFR) = # children a woman will have in her childbearing years (15-49) Replacement Rate the TFR required to maintain stable population over the course of several generations 8
World TFR - 2010 E. Population Pyramids Age structure of population (age and gender) Males Left / Females Right (horizontal axis) Percent Age Cohorts by 5 years (vertical axis) World TFR 2011 2.5 US TFR 2011 2.1 Pyramid s MDC vs LDC 1. Pyramid Shapes Determined by: Fertility (largest impact) Migration Mortality (not as great) 9
2. Pyramid Structure Triangular Cape Verde (islands Horn of Africa) (RNI: +1.7 / TFR 2.5) 2. Pyramid Structure Concave Sides Chile (2010) (RNI: +0.9 / TFR 1.9) 2. Pyramid Structure Behive Denmark (RNI: +0.2 / TFR 1.9) 2. Pyramid Structure Tapered Base Germany (RNI: -0.2 / TFR 1.4) Pop 2011 81.5M Pop 2050 71.5M Decline 12.2% 10
US Pyramid - 2011 USA Pyramids to 2050 (RNI: 0.9% TFR: 2.1) Population 2011 312M 2025 351M 2050 422M Increase despite TFR = Replacement Why? F. Demographic Transition Model (DTM) Stage 1: Stage 2: Stage 3: FSU Population and Fertility (momentum Kazakhstan v Azerbaijan) Country 2003 2050 RNI Chg TFR Russia 145.5 119.1-0.7-18% 1.3 Kazakhstan 14.8 13.3 0.5-10% 1.8 Azerbaijan 8.2 11.6 0.8 41% 1.9 Tajikistan 6.6 10 1.4 53% 2.4 Turkmenistan 5.7 8.8 1.3 55% 2.2 Georgia 4.7 2.6 0-43% 1.1 Lithuania 3.5 3.1-0.3-10% 1.2 Armenia 3.2 3.4 0.6 4% 1.7 Latvia 2.3 1.8-0.5-24% 1.2 Source: Data Sheet 2003 11
F. Demographic Transition Model (DTM) Stage 4: Stage 5: G. Multi-Phasic Response Alternative to DTM Argues that DTM shows association/ correlation not casual relationship Examples: Japan and FSU after 1991 FSU Demographic Transition (Causes?) Russia H. Dependency Ratios DR = [(<20) + (65 plus) / (20-64) Often expressed and number of dependents to 100 workers Can be expressed as a percentage Modified to 16-64 for in some cases Kazakhstan 12
Percent under Age 15 DR YD% AD% Tot % Japan 56 13 23 36% US 50 20 13 33% Germany 52 13 21 34% Iraq 85 43 3 46% Tajikistan 73 38 4 42% Nigeria 85 43 3 46% Russia 40 15 13 29% Source: Data Sheet 2011 I. Theories on Growth 1. Malthus Viewpoint: Positive v. Preventative checks I. Theories on Growth 2. Hardin Viewpoint: Tragedy of the Commons / Fertility Commons Mutual Coercion 3. Simon Viewpoint: Brainpower / technology: self correcting problem Humans as the Ultimate Resource 13
Pyramid Websites 1. Census http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.html 2. Factfinder - Census http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en 2. IIASA http://www.iiasa.ac.at/research/pop/ 3. DeStatis http://www.destatis.de/basis/e/bevoe/bev_svg_var.htm http://www.destatis.de/basis/d/bevoe/dopyr/ 14