Measuring the American Social Contract Part 1 of 4 Social Contract Indicators: Jobs Lauren Damme Next Social Contract Initiative, New America Foundation July, 2011 Valuable research assistance provided by: Amanda Huffman and Kristen Johnson
Measuring the American Social Contract: Jobs Contents* 1. U.S. Jobs Deficit 2. U.S. Unemployment by Race, Education 3. Length of U.S. Unemployment 4. Comparing U.S. to International Unemployment Rates 5. U.S. Supply and Demand of College-Educated Workers 6. U.S. Shrinking Middle Skill Occupations 7. E.U. Shrinking Middle Skill Jobs 8. U.S. Projected Job Growth by Education/Skill *A number of worker rights indicators are not available in the U.S. For full descriptions, citations, and context, see: Rethinking the American Social Contract: The International Labor Organization s Decent Work Agenda in the United States, by Lauren Damme 1
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Millions Social Contract Indicators: U.S. Jobs Deficit The Jobs Deficit, January 2001-April 2011 1 30 25 U-6 Unemployment 20 15 20,891,000 Americans 10 5 Job Openings 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2011 1 U-6: Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons. Data is not seasonally adjusted. 2
Percent Social Contract Indicators: Unemployment rates U.S. Unemployment by Race and Educational Attainment, May 2011 18% 16% 16.2% 14.7% U-6 unemployment = 15.8% 14% 12% 10% 11.9% 9.5% Avg. official unemployment = 9.1% 8% 8.0% 7.0% 8.0% 6% 4% 4.5% 2% 3 0% Black or African American Hispanic or Latino White Asian Less than a high school diploma High school graduates, no college Some college or associate's degree Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 3, 2011 and June 9, 2011. U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force. Data is seasonally adjusted with the exception of the Asian unemployment rate, which is not seasonally adjusted. Bachelor's degree and higher
Percent of the Unemployed Social Contract Indicators: Length of Unemployment 45 Percent of the Unemployed Are Long-Term Unemployed, May 2011 50% 45% 45.1% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 19.4% 21.0% 14.4% 10% 5% 0% Less than 5 weeks 5 to 14 weeks 15 to 26 weeks 27 weeks and over Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 3, 2011. Length of Unemployment 4
Unemployment rate Social Contract Indicators: International Unemployment 20% U.S. Has One of the Highest Unemployment Rates of Developed Countries, 2009 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: OECD, 2011. 5
Percent Growth Social Contract Indicators: Demand for Educated Workers 6% Demand for Educated Workers in the U.S. Outpaces Supply since 1980 5% 5.0% 5.0% 4.3% 4% 3.7% 3.8% 3% 2% 3.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.9% 2.6% 2.5% 2.0% 3.0% 1.7% 2.5% 1% 0% -1% 1915-40 1940-50 1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000 1990-2005 -0.7% Supply of College Educated Workers Demand for College Educated Workers Source: Goldin and Katz, 2009. The relative supply and demand measures are for college equivalents (college graduates plus half of those with some college) relative to high school equivalents (those with 12 or fewer years of schooling and half of those with some college). 6
Percentage Change Social Contract Indicators: Shrinking Middle Skill Jobs The Shrinking Middle: U.S. Occupational Employment Shares by Education and Sex, 1979-2007 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10 Males Females -15-20 All High school or Less Some College College+ High-Skill Occs Medium-Skill Occs Low-Skill Occs High-Skill Occs Medium-Skill Occs Low-Skill Occs High-Skill Occs Medium-Skill Occs Low-Skill Occs High-Skill Occs Medium-Skill Occs Low-Skill Occs Source: David Autor, 2010. Definitions of Skill Groups: High Skill: Managerial, Professional and Technical Occupations Medium Skill: Sales, Office/Admin, Production, and Operatives Low Skill: Protective Service, Food Prep, Janitorial/Cleaning, Personal Care/Services 7
Percentage change in employment share Social Contract Indicators: Employment Shares, E.U. 20 Change in Employment Shares by Occupation in the European Union, 1993-2006 15 10 5 0-5 -10 Lowest Paying Middle Paying Highest Paying -15-20 Source: Goos, Manning, & Salomons, 2009. Occupations are ordered by their mean wage rank in 1993 across the 16 European countries. 8
Percent Social Contract Indicators: Projected Job Growth 60% Only 15 Percent of Projected Growth in Total Employment is in Middle Skill Jobs, 2008-2018 53% 50% 40% 30% 31% 20% 15% 10% 0% Low Skill Middle Skill High Skill Source: Author's analysis of BLS employment projections, 2011. Employment and training skill classification: Low skill: Work experience and/or on-the-job-training Middle skill: More than a High-school degree but less than a Bachelor's degree, (Including postsecondary vocational award and Associate degree) High skill: Bachelor's degree or higher 9