Campaign Shifts the Trade Debate October 2016
Methodology National phone survey of 900 Likely 2016 Voters. This survey took place October 21-24 among national likely voters. Likely voters were determined based on stated intention of voting in 2016, and vote history in 2012 and 2014. Data shown in this deck is among all 2016 likely voters unless otherwise noted. Margin of error for the full sample is +/-3.27 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. Of the 900 respondents, 65 percent were interviewed via cell phone in order to accurately sample the American electorate. 1
Bad thing Good thing Big shift in impressions of past trade agreements over campaign In general, do you think that free trade agreements between the United States and other countries have been a good thing or bad thing for the United States? Have past trade agreements been a good thing or bad thing for the US? Good: +15 Good thing strongly Bad thing strongly Bad: +2 51 43 15 13 15 23 36 45 June October 2
Bad thing Good thing Drive by all parties, though particularly Republican base voters In general, do you think that free trade agreements between the United States and other countries have been a good thing or bad thing for the United States? Have past trade agreements been a good thing or bad thing for the US? Good thing strongly Bad thing strongly Good: +36 Good: +30 Good: +10 Bad: +11 Bad: +9 Bad: +39 62 58 50 39 39 25 18 19 16 12 8 9 7 5 19 27 21 41 26 28 40 64 50 48 June Oct. June Oct. June Oct. Democrats Independents Republicans 3
Bad thing Good thing Working class women are now close to the men, college women sharply divided In general, do you think that free trade agreements between the United States and other countries have been a good thing or bad thing for the United States? Have past trade agreements been a good thing or bad thing for the US? Good thing strongly Bad thing strongly Total bad thing Bad: +29 Bad: +32 Good: +17 Bad: +17 Good: +18 Good: +4 Good: +41 Good: +15 30 29 51 35 56 48 65 49 7 9 10 7 21 16 17 12 11 26 36 30 18 20 9 14 24 34 38 34 44 52 59 61 June Oct. June Oct. June Oct. June Oct. White Non-College Men White Non-College Women College Men College Women 4
Bad thing Good thing Both Clinton & Trump voters down on past deals, but particularly Trump voters In general, do you think that free trade agreements between the United States and other countries have been a good thing or bad thing for the United States? Have past trade agreements been a good thing or bad thing for the US? Good: +47 67 61 Good thing strongly Good: +37 Bad thing strongly Bad: +21 Bad: +51 22 20 20 24 33 26 20 44 June October June October 54 71 Clinton Voters Trump Voters 5
Hurt Helped Republicans, Independents say trade hurt their family, one-third of Democrats and Clinton voters say they neither or unsure Thinking about the financial situation of you and your family, do you think free trade agreements have helped or hurt the financial situation of you and your family? Is that definitely (helped/hurt) or probably (helped/hurt)? Free trade agreements helped or hurt the financial situation of your family? Helped definitely Hurt definitely Hurt: +7 Help: +17 Hurt: +7 Hurt: +37 Neither: 17 Don t know: 13 Neither: 20 Don t know: 14 Neither: 15 Don t know: 12 Neither: 14 Don t know: 12 Help: +26 Neither: 21 Don t know: 13 Hurt: +49 Neither: 11 Don t know: 12 31 40 45 33 18 14 10 10 19 9 20 29 23 19 38 40 38 55 63 Total Democrats Independents Republicans Clinton voters Trump voters 6
Hurt Helped Coasts are divided and unsure, but Midwest and South say hurt Thinking about the financial situation of you and your family, do you think free trade agreements have helped or hurt the financial situation of you and your family? Is that definitely (helped/hurt) or probably (helped/hurt)? Free trade agreements helped or hurt the financial situation of your family? def help hurt def Helped: +6 Hurt: +11 Neither: 17 Don t know: 10 Neither : 16 Don t know: 17 Hurt: +13 Neither: 21 Don t know: 12 Hurt: -- Neither: 10 Don t know: 11 39 27 26 38 11 20 11 21 20 33 38 39 38 Northeast Midwest South West 7
Losses Create Universal agreement trade leads to job losses Do free trade agreements create jobs in the U.S., lead to job losses, or not make a difference? Do free trade agreements create jobs, lead to job losses, or make no difference? Create jobs Job losses Losses: +39 Losses: +20 Losses: +42 Losses: +63 No difference: 18 No difference: 27 No difference: 15 No difference: 9 Losses: +15 No difference: 25 Losses: +70 No difference: 9 14 17 14 9 20 6 53 37 56 72 35 76 Total Democrats Independents Republicans Clinton voters Trump voters 8
Job losses Create jobs White working class most likely to say lost jobs Do free trade agreements create jobs in the U.S., lead to job losses, or not make a difference? Do free trade agreements create jobs, lead to job losses or make no difference? Job losses Create Jobs Losses: +61 Losses: +55 No difference: 13 No difference: 11 Losses: +40 No difference: 20 Losses: +25 No difference: 22 8 8 14 17 69 63 54 42 White Non- College Men White Non-College Women College Men College Women 9
For NAFTA, all voters unsure but independents & GOP very negative Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. NAFTA, the North American Trade Agreement with Mexico, Canada and the United States Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 42.8 Net: -10 Neutral: 22 DK: 10 29 Neutral: 25 DK: 12 42 13 20 30 13 20 39 Mean: 56.0 Mean: 36.5 Net: +22 Net: -26 Net: -41 Neutral: 22 DK: 8 22 17 7 8 37 48 Mean: 30.8 Neutral: 17 DK: 7 47 58 Mean: 55.8 Net: +22 Neutral: 27 DK: 11 42 19 13 20 Mean: 26.6 Net: -53 Neutral: 15 DK: 6 13 6 54 66 Total Democrats Independents Republicans Clinton voters Trump voters 10
Biggest drop in GOP support for NAFTA in decade over 6 months Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. NAFTA, Among Democrats and Republicans (Mean favorability shown) 60 48.5 50 48.1 48.4 48.4 46.9 40 42.2 41.5 40.1 30 20 44.3 45.6 42 40.1 56.0 47.7 54.3 54.7 41.8 Democrats Republicans 40.7 35.9 30.8 10 0 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 11
Just Campaign has raised TPP's awareness and negativity Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, known as TPP, the proposed new trade agreement between the United States and 11 Asian and Latin American countries such as Vietnam, Peru, Mexico and Japan Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 42.0 Net: -9 Neutral: 22 Don t know: 34 Mean: 37.3 Net: -17 Neutral: 20 Don t know: 24 18 20 6 7 20 27 June 30 37 October 12
TPP awareness increase from independents and Republicans Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Mean: 47.8 Net: +7 Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 32.8 Net: -25 REMOVE WS The Trans-Pacific Partnership, known as TPP, the proposed new trade agreement between the United States and 11 Asian and Latin American countries, such as Vietnam, Peru, Mexico and Japan Mean: 51.7 Net: +10 Mean: 36.5 Net: -19 Neutral: 23 Neutral: 22 Neutral: 18 Neutral: 19 Don t know: 26 Don t know: 28 Don t know: 21 Don t know: 40 27 28 16 16 8 11 11 10 5 12 17 26 35 25 43 17 23 35 33 44 50 Neutral: 24 Don t know: 32 Mean: 32.7 Net: -28 Mean: 27.3 Net: -39 Neutral: 16 Don t know: 23 June Oct. June Oct. June Oct. Democrats Independents Republicans 13
Clinton voters divided now, Trump voters dramatically more negative Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Neutral: 26 Neutral: 23 Don t know: 30 Don t know: 26 29 29 11 11 15 14 22 Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) 6 7 32 40 REMOVE WS The Trans-Pacific Partnership, known as TPP, the proposed new trade agreement between the United States and 11 Asian and Latin American countries, such as Vietnam, Peru, Mexico and Japan Mean: 53.5 Net: +15 Mean: 48.7 Net: +7 Mean: 28.7 Net: -34 Neutral: 20 Don t know: 35 Mean: 23.7 Net: -49 Neutral: 16 Don t know: 21 June October June October 49 56 Clinton voters Trump voters 14
Oppose Support Stronger opposition to TPP now As you may know, the United States is currently considering a new trade agreement with 11 other countries in Asia and Latin America called the Trans-Pacific Partnership or TPP. From what you know, do you support or oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership? Do you support or oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership? Support strongly Oppose strongly Oppose:+3 Oppose: +15 Don t know: 27 Don t know: 26 35 29 8 7 20 26 38 44 June October 15
Oppose Support Support for TPP drops across party, more Dems now unsure too As you may know, the United States is currently considering a new trade agreement with 11 other countries in Asia and Latin America called the Trans-Pacific Partnership or TPP. From what you know, do you support or oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership? Do you support or oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership? Support: +25 Support: +12 Support strongly Oppose: +8 Oppose strongly Oppose: +24 Support: +32 Oppose: +44 Don t know: 25 Don t know: 30 Don t know: 22 Don t know: 26 Don t know: 32 Don t know: 21 50 41 35 13 12 11 11 21 25 29 43 25 18 17 33 29 40 49 50 61 June Oct. June Oct. June Oct. Democrats Independents Republicans 16
Oppose Support TPP support drops with Clinton voters, opposition rises with Trump's As you may know, the United States is currently considering a new trade agreement with 11 other countries in Asia and Latin America called the Trans-Pacific Partnership or TPP. From what you know, do you support or oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership? Do you support or oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership? Support strongly Oppose strongly Support: +32 Support: +16 Oppose: +40 Oppose: +55 Don t know: 26 Don t know: 30 Don t know: 29 Don t know: 21 53 43 13 12 8 12 21 27 15 12 28 45 55 67 June October June October Clinton voters Trump voters 17
Oppose Support Shifts across education and gender as debate goes on From what you know, do you support or oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership? Do you support or oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership? Support strongly Oppose strongly +44 +40 +23 +2 +8 +14 +23 +4 DK:20 DK: 16 DK: 35 DK: 34 DK: 15 DK: 18 DK: 33 DK: 34 18 22 26 13 36 43 37 62 62 19 36 50 47 34 45 35 14 10 9 23 27 14 12 39 22 48 31 June Oct. June Oct. June Oct. June Oct. White Non- College Men White Non- College Women College Men College Women 18
Argument against TPP much stronger than case in favor Now, I'm going to read you what some economists, consumer groups and political leaders who OPPOSE the agreement / President Obama, some Republican leaders and major American businesses who SUPPORT the agreement are saying about it./is that a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or not at all convincing reason to OPPOSE/SUPPORT the TPP? ANTI-TPP STATEMENT PRO-TPP STATEMENT The TPP covers 40 percent of the global economy, yet it was negotiated in secret with hundreds of corporate advisors while the public was locked out. The key provision in TPP grants new rights to thousands of foreign corporations to sue the U.S. government before a panel of 3 corporate lawyers over U.S. laws and safety regulations they claim violate their new TPP rights. These lawyers can award the corporations unlimited sums to be paid by America's taxpayers, including for the loss of expected future profits, and their decisions are not subject to appeal. TPP also means higher drug prices and requires us to import food that does not meet our safety standards. It makes it easier to send jobs overseas, meaning fewer jobs and lower wages, and a government that answers to corporate lobbyists, not us. Very convincing 67 37 The TPP is a new trade agreement that brings together 12 countries representing 40 percent of the global economy. The TPP is essential for U.S. security and prosperity. It would eliminate more than 18,000 taxes other countries put on our products. American businesses will export more and that means more higher-paying jobs here. It levels the playing field and improves people's lives in partner countries by setting the highest enforceable labor and environmental standards. As we speak, China is negotiating a trade deal that would carve up these fast-growing markets at our expense. TPP ensures America writes the rules, not China. Failure to pass the TPP would weaken U.S. global leadership, signaling that our allies who signed this deal can't count on U.S. support and pushing them into alliances with China and Russia. Very convincing 49 16 19
Anti-TPP argument dominant across gender and class Now, I'm going to read you what some economists, consumer groups and political leaders who OPPOSE the agreement / President Obama, some Republican leaders and major American businesses who SUPPORT the agreement are saying about it./is that a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or not at all convincing reason to OPPOSE/SUPPORT the TPP? Anti-TPP Statement Pro-TPP Statement TPP STATEMENTS 75 36 76 43 68 50 59 57 52 16 51 9 33 22 26 17 Anti-TPP Pro-TPP Anti-TPP Pro-TPP Anti-TPP Pro-TPP Anti-TPP Pro-TPP White Non-College Men White Non-College Women College Men College Women 20
Oppose Support Exposure to pro & con arguments moves country against TPP Now let me ask you again, from what you know, do you support or oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the proposed new trade agreement between the United States and 11 other countries in Asia and Latin America, also known as TPP? Do you support or oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership? +7 Support strongly Oppose strongly -1 +11 +11 + 15 DK: 26 +22 DK: 13 +12 +11 +24 +35 +44 +55 DK: 30 DK: 15 DK: 26 DK: 15 DK: 21 DK: 8 29 33 26 32 41 48 12 11 14 17 25 25 17 18 33 35 40 50 44 55 29 37 49 60 61 73 Initial Total Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Democrats Independents Republicans 21
Oppose Support College now oppose TPP & working class opposition deepens Now let me ask you again, from what you know, do you support or oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the proposed new trade agreement between the United States and 11 other countries in Asia and Latin America, also known as TPP? Do you support or oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership? Support strongly Oppose strongly +12 +11-6 +11 +40 +52 +31 +42 +14 +8 +4 +7 DK:16 DK: 7 DK: 31 DK: 14 DK: 18 DK: 11 DK: 34 DK: 19 22 20 19 22 43 51 62 Initial 72 Re-ask White Non- College Men 36 41 50 64 White Non-College Women 34 41 35 37 10 10 27 28 48 49 College Men 12 18 Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask Initial Re-ask 31 44 College Women 22
Less likely More likely Simulated lame duck debate: vote for TPP is punishable After the election and before the newly elected President and Members of Congress are sworn into office, President Obama is expected to submit the TPP agreement for a vote in Congress with the support of the Republican leaders of the House and Senate, Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell. They say passing this agreement is important to our economy, our national security and our standing in the world. TPP opens the world's fastest growing markets to American exports, creating jobs here. And, it prevents China from setting the rules of the road. Failing to move ahead with this agreement would call into question America's leadership But this agreement is opposed by most Democrats and many Republicans in Congress. They say TPP rigs the rules against American companies and workers. Democrats say TPP will tarnish President Obama's legacy, undermining the progress he made on the economy. TPP will lead to higher medicine prices and give corporations new powers over our lives, which is why Hillary Clinton opposes it too. Imagine that your Member of Congress were to vote TO PASS the Trans-Pacific Partnership when Congress considers it after the election. Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for that Member of Congress? Much more likely Much less likely 26 8 28 59 23
Less likely More likely All parties less likely to support a member voting for TPP Imagine that your Member of Congress were to vote to pass the Trans-Pacific Partnership when Congress considers it after the election. Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for that Member of Congress? More or less likely to vote for a Member of Congress voting for TPP Much more likely Much less likely Less likely:+33 Less likely: +15 Less likely: +48 Less likely: +47 Don t know: 15 Don t know: 19 Don t know: 12 Don t know: 12 26 33 8 13 28 21 20 21 33 34 59 48 68 68 Total Democrats Independents Republicans 24
Less likely More likely Rising American Electorate ready to punish for TPP vote Imagine that your Member of Congress were to vote to pass the Trans-Pacific Partnership when Congress considers it after the election. Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for that Member of Congress? More or less likely to vote for a Member of Congress voting for TPP Much more likely Much less likely Less likely:+29 Less likely: +36 Less likely: +26 Less likely: +19 Don t know: 13 Don t know: 14 Don t know: 10 Don t know: 14 29 25 32 34 10 16 7 25 29 25 19 58 61 58 53 Rising American Electorate Unmarried Women Minorities Millennials 25
Less likely More likely White working class men and women ready to hold accountable Imagine that your Member of Congress were to vote to pass the Trans-Pacific Partnership when Congress considers it after the election. Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for that Member of Congress? More or less likely to vote for a Member of Congress voting for TPP Support strongly Oppose strongly Less likely:+41 Less likely: +50 Less likely: +26 Less likely: +22 Don t know: 11 Don t know: 16 Don t know: 12 Don t know: 22 24 17 31 28 14 36 32 24 22 65 67 57 50 White Non-College Men White Non-College Women College Men College Women 26
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