The Public Opinion Monitor The Conservative Party and the Electorate In this third and final special report on the state of the main parties, we look at the Conservative party and their voters in advance of their annual gathering in Birmingham. Key findings include: 1. The Conservatives enter conference season with their lowest poll numbers since taking office, though they have retained the support of the majority of those who voted for them in 2010. 2. Support for the coalition is mixed with half of Conservative supporters hoping it will survive its full term but a fifth hoping it breaks-up by Christmas. 3. Half of Conservative supporters would still choose to renew the coalition with the Liberal Democrats in the event of a hung parliament. 4. Cameron enjoys a lead over his rivals in terms of public confidence, particularly amongst non-committed voters, though this lead appears to be declining. Contents Vol. XIII, October 2012 2 3 4 5 The Conservative Vote I party poll performance in 2011/2012 The Conservative Vote II voter commitment and the future of coalition The electorate s view of Cameron the electorate s confidence in the Conservative leader Voter policy priorities the priorities of Conservative party supporters, noncommitted voters and the wider electorate 5. The wider electorate is more concerned than Conservative supporters about increasing income inequality, though there is wide support for debt reduction as long as it does not undercut growth. TNS BMRB TNS 2012 Nick Howat Head of Social and Political Attitudes TNS BMRB 6 More London Place London SE1 2Y t +44 (0)20 7656 5742 nick.howat@tns-bmrb.co.uk www.tns-bmrb.co.uk
The Conservative Party Vote I The Conservatives enter conference season trailing Labour by 16 points as they drop below 30% for the first time since taking office in 2010. Whilst the party has trailed Labour consistently since May 2011, the gap between the two began to widen following the budget of March 2012. Since that time the Conservative s share of the vote has fallen from 35% to 28% whilst Labour s has risen from 38% to 44%. Smaller parties have also gained during this period, though no single party has gained disproportionately. In TNS BMRB s latest poll UKIP recorded a 7% vote share, up from 5% in March 2012. 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% If a general election were to be held tomorrow which party, if any, would you vote for? Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 44% 28% 19% 8% Labour Conservative Liberal Democrats Other Base: 1,197 Latest poll conducted 21st September
The Conservative Party Vote II Conservative support appears firm with 74% of supporters saying they are highly confident that is how they would vote at the next election 1, whilst 47% were totally confident 2. This is almost identical to the strength of Labour support and significantly higher than that of the Liberal Democrats. The party has done reasonably well at retaining voters since the last election with more than three quarters of those who voted Conservative in 2010 saying they will do so at the next election. This figure easily eclipses that of the Liberal Democrats who have only managed to retain the vote of 39% of those who supported them in 2010. It is Labour that emerges the strongest on this measure with 93% of people who voted for them at the last election saying they will do so again at the next. supporters Voter retention since the last election (proportion of each parties who voted for them in 2010 and say they will do so again at the next election) 93% 79% Party support for the coalition is mixed with around half (47%) of Conservative supporters saying they want the coalition survive its full term, though a fifth (22%) would like to see it break up by Christmas 2012. Based on current polling numbers a Conservative majority at the next election seems unlikely. When asked what they would prefer in the event of a hung parliament, 50% of Conservative voters say they would like to renew the coalition with the Liberal Democrats, whilst 26% would prefer the party to go in to opposition. Should this scenario come about it is by no means guaranteed that the party would find a willing partner with Liberal Democrat supporters marginally preferring Labour (33%) to the Conservatives (29%) as a future partner. 1 Highly confident defined as saying 8 or higher when asked to rate how confident they were that they would vote for their stated party on a scale of 0-10 with 10 meaning totally confident. 2 Totally confident defined as saying 10 on a scale of 0-10. Party supporters preferences in the event of hung parliament at the next election (all who say they would vote for the party at the next election) 50% with the Liberal Democrats 39% 26% 33% 29% 15% Go in to opposition with Labour with the Conservatives Labour Conservative Lib Dem Conservative Supporters Liberal Democrat Supporters Base: all Labour (690), Conservative (517), Lib Dem (152) Base: all Conservatives (517) Base: all Lib Dems (152)
Party and voter confidence in Cameron Although he leads his main rivals, public confidence in Cameron is low. Asked how they rate his ability to solve the problems the country is currently facing, 35% said they have at least some confidence in him, compared to 29% with confidence in Miliband and 20% with confidence in Clegg. Worryingly for Cameron, his ratings against Miliband have slipped significantly over the last year with confidence in the Labour leader rising as confidence in Cameron falls. Cameron s ratings improve when looking at the views of the non-committed voters the party will seek to win over before the next election. Four in ten (42%) have some confidence in the Tory leader, giving him an 11 point lead over Miliband who enjoys the confidence of just 31% of this group. Non-committed voter confidence in the ability of each party leader to solve the problems the country faces. Cameron s personal standing amongst non-committed voters could be one way to rejuvenate his party s prospects ahead of the next election, though it should be noted that as Prime Minister he inevitably has a higher public profile than his Labour rival. As Miliband seeks to assert his identity as Labour leader over conference season and in the second half of this parliament, Cameron s advantage looks set to decline. It is therefore important that the Conservatives focus their energies on convincing voters they have a clear plan for generating economic growth and lifting the country out of recession, rather than relying on the public standing of their party leader. 58% 42% 70% 73% 31% 27% David Cameron Ed Miliband Nick Clegg Not much or no confidence Some confidence Base: all non-committed voters (719)
Voter Policy Priorities The government s emphasis on debt reduction appears to have strong public support, as long as it is not seen to undercut economic growth; the number one policy priority of all groups surveyed. The top priorities of Conservative supporters appear to match those of non-committed voters. Both groups stress the need to generate growth and reduce the national debt, whilst continuing to invest in health and improve the education system. A Conservative policy platform that sets out a convincing plan for growth whilst emphasising a commitment to tackling the public finances and identifying new ways to improve health and education provision would therefore prove popular. Where caution should be exercised is around the issue of reducing income inequality. Non-committed voters place income inequality fifth on their list of priorities; close behind the need to invest in health and education. In contrast, Conservative supporters attach little importance to the issue, placing it just ahead of the need to increase sports participation but behind greater investment in research and innovation. Conservative Supporters Policy Priorities: 1 Generating economic growth 2 Reducing the national debt 3 Improving the future opportunities of our young people through better education 4 Investing more in health care 5 Reducing crime 6 Investing more in social care for the elderly 7 Investing more in research and innovation 8 Reducing income inequality between the richest and the poorest 9 Ensuring a wide participation in sports Base: all Conservatives (517) Non-committed voters top policy priorities Generating economic growth Improving the future opportunities of our young people through better education Reducing crime Investing more in research and innovation Lowest priority Highest priority Reducing the national debt Investing more in health care Reducing income inequality between the richest and the poorest Investing more in social care for the elderly Convincing these non-committed voters that their policies will not have a disproportionately negative effect on income inequality could be the key to the Conservative party s hopes at the next election. Ensuring a wide participation in sports Base: All non-committed voters (719)