Democratization Social mobilisation and University College Dublin 1 February 2011
Revolution How would you define? What are examples of s? Definitions aimed at social change Definitions aimed at political change only
Revolution Rapid, basic transformations of a society s state and class structures (...) accompanied and in part carried through by class-based revolts from below (Skocpol 1974: 4) Note difference between original s (France, Russia 1917) and modern ones (Iran, South Africa, Russia 1991) (Goldstone 2001: 141)
Revolution An effort to transform the political institutions and the justifications for political authority in a society, accompanied by (...) mass mobilization and non-institutionalized actions that undermine existing authorities. (...) this definition is strong enough to exclude coups, revolts, civil wars, and rebellions that make no effort to transform institutions or the justification for authority. (Goldstone 2001: 142)
Theories are focused on: Class and social structure Psychology of the masses Conscious agency Ideology and culture Contingency and path-dependence International factors (crisis, emulation) (Goldstone 2001: 141-142)
Relative deprivation Ted Gurr (1970), Why men rebel Relative deprivation is defined as actors perceptions of discrepancy between their value expectations and their value capabilities. (Gurr 1968: 1104)
Relative deprivation What people think they are able to acquire (capabilities) could depend on: Inequality in society Neighbouring developments (diffusion) Sudden change in fortune etc.
Skocpol (1979) Focuses on social Two sufficient factors: Crisis of state Pattern of class dominance
Skocpol (1979) Crisis of state: International war, economic competition, etc. Existing state institutions are not able to cope.
Skocpol (1979) Pattern of class dominance: Strong landed elite will block necessary institutional reforms Strong central bureaucracy will be able to reform Hence, the former leads to when state crisis, the latter does not.
Mass vs elite Pacted transitions are elite affairs; mobilized masses spoil the party. Jacobins must therefore be side-lined, for if they are part of the equation, democracy is less likely to result. (McFaul 2002: 218)
Mass vs elite To date, no stable political democracy has resulted from regime transitions in which mass actors have gained control even momentarily over traditional ruling classes. (Karl 1990: 8)
Mass vs elite Many theories focus on elite divisions, defections, and pacts. Endless, general debate on role of elite vs mass (cf. Tolstoy (1869)). Scepticism in part based on definition of Large social s lead to civil war and populist regimes More recent transitions based on popular protest lead to democracy (Goldstone 2001: 141)
Mass vs structure What is the relation between structure (economic development, international crisis, class structure, religious fractionalization, etc.) and mass mobilization or? Indonesia
Main literature M. Granovetter (1978), Threshold models of collective behavior E. Nölle-Neumann (1993), The spiral of silence S. Lohmann (1994), The dynamics of informational cascades T. Kuran (1995), Private truths, public lies
Cascade experiment Based on Granovetter (1978: 1424-1425)
Granovetter (1978) Collective behavior in situations with many agents; two alternative actions for each; cost/benefit of choice depends on choice of other agents; more specifically, there is a threshold (Granovetter 1978: 1420)
Granovetter (1978) Suggested applications are to riot behavior, innovation, rumor diffusion, strikes, voting, migration. (Granovetter 1978: 1420)
Granovetter (1978) Thus, each individual has own (exogenous) threshold value; participation depends on number of individuals already participating. Small changes in distribution of threshold can have dramatic effects on outcome. Same outcome can be based on many different distributions of thresholds.
Nölle-Neumann (1993) 1965 German parliamentary elections Poll results: CDU and SPD very close Election result: major win for CDU So what explains this mismatch?
Nölle-Neumann (1993) If there would be elections today, what would you vote? Of course nobody can know, but what do you think: who is going to win the election?
Two interpretations Painting example... Social-psychological: fear of isolation (Nölle-Neumann) Asch two lines example... Rational: reputation costs (Kuran)
Kuran (1995) Theory very similar to Noelle-Neumann s Applied to and protest rather than elections Thus linking preference falsification to cascading
Lohmann (1994) Leipzig ( Heldenstadt ) Monday demonstrations 1989 25 September: 6,500 people 2 October: 17,938 people 9 October: 60,300 people 16 October: 105,000 people... 6 November: 325,000 people (Lohmann 1994: 70)
Lohmann (1994)
Lohmann (1994) 1975-89 Increasing dicontent But, no opposition party allowed no free media opinion poll results kept secret no mass emigration (Berlin Wall) Collapse of communist regime in Eastern European countries creates new exodus (1989) Exodus + protests: informational cascade
Kuran on relative deprivation Relative deprivation (...) is too common in politically stable societies to provide a complete explanation for every observed instability. (...) By treating the likelihood of as the sum of the individual levels of discontent, the relative deprivation theory overlooks the significance of the distribution of disconnect. (Kuran 1991: 16, 21)