RESEARCH BRIEF Q2 2013 Joseph Cera Manager CUIR Survey Center University of Wisconsin Ben Gilbertson Project Assistant CUIR Survey Center University of Wisconsin WISCONSIN ECONOMIC SCORECARD The Wisconsin Economic Scorecard is a quarterly poll of Wisconsin residents conducted by the UWM Center for Urban Initiatives and Research (CUIR), in cooperation with WisBusiness.com and Public Radio (WUWM 89.7). This tracking poll measures perceptions of the health of Wisconsin s economy, personal economic circumstances of Wisconsin residents, and public opinion regarding important state economic issues. The Q2 2013 Wisconsin Economic Scorecard was a random digit dial (RDD) landline/mobile telephone survey of 560 Wisconsin residents, conducted by the CUIR Survey Center at the University of Wisconsin from June 3 6. The sampling margin of error was ±4.1% at the 95% confidence level. The Wisconsin Economic Scorecard is a quarterly poll of Wisconsin residents conducted by the UWM Center for Urban Initiatives and Research, in cooperation with WUWM and WisBusiness.com. MAJOR FINDINGS: Delaying work on major road construction projects is the most preferred option for covering the shortfall in the state s transportation fund; specifically, delaying an expansion of I 94 between and Illinois is supported by a majority (51.6%) of registered voters. Gasoline tax and passenger vehicle user fee increases and the introduction of toll roads on some Wisconsin highways are the least preferred options for covering the transportation fund shortfall. Public confidence in the ability of the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation to fulfill its mission of bringing jobs to the state has decreased from 52% in November to 4 in June. While a majority of residents (56%) say Wisconsin is headed in the right direction, only 28% view the economy as good and just 1% say it is excellent. The proportion of Wisconsin residents who characterize the state economy as poor increased to 23%, up from 18% last quarter. Applied Research Technical Assistance Community Initiatives Contact us: Phone (414) 229 5916 Fax (414) 229 3884 Web http://cuir.uwm.edu/ Views on the state economy are increasingly polarized along partisan lines, with the largest differences emerging among relatively well off Democrats and Republicans; the views of less well off partisans have not diverged as much. While spending on non necessities such as restaurants and entertainment has increased slightly, so has the incidence of serious personal financial problems, such as affording home payments and paying for retirement. Wisconsin Economic Scorecard Q2 2013: Page 0
THE DIRECTION OF THE STATE During the second half of 2012, opinion regarding the overall direction of the state underwent a positive shift. Just after the November elections, a clear majority of Wisconsin residents (64%) said that Wisconsin was headed in the right direction, while just 36% said the state was on the wrong track. Since then, opinion has shifted in a negative direction. While a majority (56%) still says Wisconsin is headed in the right direction, Figure 1 shows steady increases in the proportion of Wisconsin residents expressing the opinion that the state is on the wrong track over the last two quarters. More residents now say the state is strongly on the wrong track (23%) than at any other point over the last twelve months. Figure 1: Perceived Direction of the State of Wisconsin 18% 38% 21% strongly in right direction somewhat in right direction somewhat on wrong track strongly on wrong track 23% Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 The two strongest predictors of opinion regarding the direction of the state continue to be political affiliation and personal economic situations. Figure 2 shows that most Democrats (69%) say the state is on the wrong track, while the vast majority of Republicans (87%) say the state is headed in the right direction. Opinion about Wisconsin s general direction among partisans has not changed substantially since last quarter. Independents are evenly split on the question; 51% express a positive opinion regarding Wisconsin s overall direction, while 49% hold a negative view. Opinion among political independents has changed significantly since last quarter, when 65% said the state was headed in the right direction. Figure 3 shows a strong relationship between the perceived direction of the state and evaluations of personal financial situations. Among those who describe their personal finances as poor, say the state is on the wrong track. That proportion drops to 47% among those who describe their personal finances as fair, 33% among those who say their personal finances are good, and 21% among those who say their personal finances are excellent. Pessimism about the direction of the state increased among each of these subgroups since Q1 2013 (although the increases in pessimism are more pronounced among those with poor or fair personal financial situations). Both these factors exercise a strong independent influence on opinion about Wisconsin s direction. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to express optimism regarding where the state is headed regardless of personal financial situation, but those with worse personal finances are consistently less likely to express a positive view than their better off co partisans. Wisconsin Economic Scorecard Q2 2013: Page 1
Figure 2: Perceived Direction of the State of Wisconsin, by Party Identification Party Identification: 35% 31% 65% 51% 84% 87% 65% 69% 35% 49% 16% 13% wrong track right direction wrong track right direction wrong track right direction Figure 3: Direction of the State of Wisconsin, by Personal Financial Situation Personal Financial Situation: Poor Fair Good Excellent 32% 58% 53% 7 67% 82% 8 68% 42% 47% 3 33% 18% 21% right direction right direction right direction right direction wrong track wrong track wrong track wrong track Wisconsin Economic Scorecard Q2 2013: Page 2
THE CURRENT WISCONSIN ECONOMY While Wisconsin residents are, on balance, optimistic about the overall direction of the state, they continue to retain a negative view of the state s economic performance; Figure 4 shows that just 29% view Wisconsin s current economy as excellent or good, while 71% characterize the state s economy as fair or poor. The proportion of Wisconsin residents describing the state economy as poor has increased to 23% (up from 18% in Q1 2013). At the same time, the proportions of residents describing the economy as excellent or good have remained stable (1% and 28%, respectively). Figure 4: Evaluations of Wisconsin s Current Economy 1% 28% 49% 23% WI economy "excellent" WI economy "good" WI economy "fair" WI economy "poor" Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 This pattern of change is driven by increasingly polarized views among partisans. Last quarter, views among partisans regarding the state economy were relatively similar. Figure 5 shows that while economic evaluations among political independents have remained stable since last quarter, Democrats are increasingly likely to express a negative view of the state s economic performance, while Republicans have become increasingly likely to give a more positive response. 1% 24% Figure 5: Evaluations of Wisconsin s Current Economy, by Party Identification Party Identification: 9% 53% 1% 1% 23% 24% 1% 1% 35% 55% 57% 18% 38% WI economy "excellent" WI economy "good" WI economy "fair" WI economy "poor" 59% 56% 17% 2 WI economy "excellent" WI economy "good" WI economy "fair" WI economy "poor" 54% 34% 1 1 WI economy "excellent" WI economy "good" WI economy "fair" WI economy "poor" Wisconsin Economic Scorecard Q2 2013: Page 3
The strongest predictor of views on the overall state economy continues to be personal financial situation. Figure 6 shows that just 9% of those who view their own finances as poor give the state economy good marks, while a majority (62%) of those who rate their personal financial situations as excellent report positive views of Wisconsin s recent economic performance. Recent partisan polarization regarding views of Wisconsin s economic performance is most visible among those with excellent personal finances, as this category has the lowest proportion of political independents. Interestingly, views of economic performance have not changed among those with poor personal finances, indicating that recent change in economic evaluations is being driven primarily by relatively well off partisans. Figure 6: Evaluations of Wisconsin s Current Economy, by Personal Financial Situation Personal Financial Situation: Poor Fair Good Excellent 9% 9% 21% 19% 1% 1% 5% 36% 4 49% 48% 49% 62% 64% 57% 56% 46% 42% 43% 44% 26% 15% 24% 7% 13% 3% 13% WI economy "excellent" WI economy "excellent" WI economy "excellent" WI economy "excellent" WI economy "good" WI economy "good" WI economy "good" WI economy "good" WI economy "fair" WI economy "fair" WI economy "fair" WI economy "fair" WI economy "poor" WI economy "poor" WI economy "poor" WI economy "poor" When it comes to expectations regarding Wisconsin s future economic performance, opinion among residents has undergone a slight negative shift since Q1, but remains positive overall. Figure 7 shows that just 15% of residents think the economy will worsen over the next year, compared to 46% who think it will stay about the same and 38% who think it will improve. Figure 7: Expectations Regarding Wisconsin s Economy over the Next Year 38% 46% Get better Stay about the same Get worse 15% Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Wisconsin Economic Scorecard Q2 2013: Page 4
This quarter, there are strong associations between what Wisconsin residents think about the future economic performance of the state and the economy they are currently experiencing. Figures 8 and 9 show that those who have strong personal financial situations and those who feel the current state economy is strong are most likely to think things will continue to improve, while those who are struggling and those who feel that Wisconsin s economy is in trouble are most likely to feel that the economy will stagnate or worsen. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Figure 8: Expectations for WI Economy over Next Year, by Perceptions of Current WI Economy Current WI econ "poor" Current WI econ "fair" Current WI econ "good/excellent" WI economy will "get worse" over next year WI economy will "stay about the same" over next year WI economy will "get better" over next year 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Figure 9: Expectations for WI Economy over Next Year, by Personal Financial Situation Personal finances "poor" Personal finances "fair" Personal finances "good" Personal finances "excellent" WI economy will "get worse" over next year WI economy will "stay about the same" over next year WI economy will "get better" over next year Wisconsin Economic Scorecard Q2 2013: Page 5
PERSONAL FINANCIAL CIRCUMSTANCES Most residents describe their financial situations in negative terms; either fair (39%) or poor (17%). Another 37% call their finances good, but just 7% say their finances are excellent. While evaluations of personal financial situations are not significantly different than last quarter, Figure 10 shows that the trend since Q3 2012 has been slightly negative overall. Figure 10: Evaluation of Current Personal Financial Situation 7% 37% 39% 17% "excellent" current personal financial situation "good" current personal financial situation "fair" current personal financial situation "poor" current personal financial situation Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 25. Figure 11: Pre tax Annual Household Income (2012) of Wisconsin 20. 15. 10. 5. 0. 25. 16.1% 20. 18.7% 18.6% 10.5% 7.5% 8.6% <$20K $20 40K $40 60K $60 80K $80 100K $100 120K >$120K 20. 15. 10. 5. 0. <$20K $20 40K $40 60K $60 80K $80 100K $100 120K >$120K current financial situation "excellent" current financial situation "good" current financial situation "fair" current financial situation "poor" Wisconsin Economic Scorecard Q2 2013: Page 6
Figure 11 shows the distribution of household income across Wisconsin residents, as well as how residents in each income category are likely to feel about their respective financial situations. The median Wisconsin resident is likely to live in a household with an annual income between $40,000 and $60,000, and is likely to describe his/her personal financial situation in negative terms. While there is an unsurprisingly strong relationship between financial self evaluations and household income, notable proportions of residents in relatively high income households describe their situations in negative terms. While greater household incomes generally yield higher levels of satisfaction, this rule is not absolute and no group is immune from dissatisfaction. Despite the wide distribution of opinion within each category, there is still a clearly visible income level that divides the satisfied from the unsatisfied. Figure 12 shows that among working age Wisconsin residents, only those living in households that earned over $80,000 in 2012 are more likely than not to describe their personal financial situations in positive terms. Figure 12: Evaluation of Current Personal Financial Situation, by Household Income (Non Retired Persons) >$120K $100 120K 23% 26% 77% 74% $80 100K $60 80K 42% 58% 58% 42% current financial situation "poor" or "fair" $40 60K 64% 36% current financial situation "good" or "excellent" $20 40K 92% 8% <$20K 92% 8% The factor most closely associated with poor evaluations of personal financial situations is employment status. The vast majority of unemployed residents (74%) report fair or poor situations. While employed residents fare better, just over half (52%) still describe their situations in negative terms. Only retirees are more likely than not to describe their financial situations as good (42%) or excellent (1). Another factor associated with financial satisfaction is education. Only those with two or four year degrees are more likely than not to express satisfaction with their financial situations. Consistent with slight increases in dissatisfaction with personal financial situations and increased pessimism regarding the overall state economy, rates of several specific serious personal financial problems have increased since last quarter. Figure 13 shows the relative frequencies of the incidence of some of the most common significant financial problems over time. This quarter, more respondents reported problems affording rent or mortgage payments, problems keeping jobs, problems getting loans or credit, problems saving or paying for retirement, and problems paying for utilities. Wisconsin Economic Scorecard Q2 2013: Page 7
40. Figure 13: Incidence of Recent Significant Personal Financial Problems 35. 30. 25. 20. 15. 10. 5. problems affording rent or mortgage problems keeping job problems getting loan or credit problems saving/paying for retirement problems paying for utilities 0. Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 In terms of spending on non necessities like entertainment, restaurants, and vacations, Wisconsin residents are most likely to report static levels of spending. Figure 14 shows that 49% of residents say spending on non necessities has stayed about the same over the last six months. While 13% say they have recently increased spending on non necessities (an significant increase since last quarter, when just 7% reported recent higher levels of recreational spending), 38% of residents say they have recently decreased their spending on recreation and entertainment. Figure 14: Spending on Non Necessities (Entertainment, Restaurants, Vacations) Over the Past Six Months 13% 49% increased stayed about the same 38% decreased Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Wisconsin Economic Scorecard Q2 2013: Page 8
FEATURE: CONFIDENCE IN THE WISCONSIN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION In 2011, the Governor s office transferred responsibility for economic development in Wisconsin from the state s Department of Commerce to a new public/private partnership, the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation (WEDC). In 2012, the WEDC made headlines after it lost track of almost $9 million in loans, and remains controversial in the wake of a critical nonpartisan legislative audit (the results of which were made public in early May). Respondents were asked about their level of confidence in the ability of the WEDC to carry out its mission of bringing jobs to Wisconsin. (This question was also asked in November 2012.) Table 19 shows a dramatic decrease in the public s confidence in the WEDC since November. Figure 19: Confidence in WEDC to Bring Jobs to Wisconsin November 2012 June 2013 15% 37% 2 28% No confidence A little confidence Some confidence A lot of confidence 29% 11% No confidence 33% 27% A little confidence Some confidence A lot of confidence Figure 20 shows that opinion has polarized further around what was already a partisan issue in November 2012. Large majorities of Democrats and independents continue to say they have a little or no confidence in the WEDC, and those majorities have grown over the last two quarters. Meanwhile, the proportion of Republicans who say they have a lot or some confidence in the WEDC s ability to bring jobs to Wisconsin stands at 84% (up from 74% in November). Figure 20: Confidence in WEDC to Bring Jobs to Wisconsin, by Party Identification Party Identification: 8% 27% 18% 6% 35% 23% 3 38% 35% 39% 42% 49% 54% 27% 42% Nov '12 Jun '13 a lot of confidence some confidence a little confidence no confidence 28% Nov '12 Jun '13 a lot of confidence some confidence a little confidence no confidence 17% 1 1 5% Nov '12 Jun '13 a lot of confidence some confidence a little confidence no confidence Wisconsin Economic Scorecard Q2 2013: Page 9
FEATURE: OPINION OF TRANSPORTATION FUNDING ISSUES AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS State lawmakers are debating how to cover a large shortfall in the state transportation fund. Options being discussed include delays to major road and rail projects, introduction of toll roads, and tax and user fee increases. Respondents who said they were registered to vote 1 were presented with a series of specific proposals/options and asked to express support or opposition. (The order of proposals/options was randomized for each respondent.) For each question, opinion for all registered voters is reported, along with metro 2 /non metro and Democrat/independent/Republican breakdowns. Figure 21 shows that 52% of Wisconsin voters support delaying an expansion of I 94 between and Illinois, while 44% oppose such a delay. Support for a proposed delay is slightly higher among those living outside metropolitan. Among metro voters, opinion is split 48% support/49% opposed. There is not significant variation among partisans. Figure 21: Would you SUPPORT or OPPOSE delaying an expansion of I 94 between and Illinois? 10 5 51.6% 47.6% 53. 48.8% 53.2% 54.9% 43.6% 48.7% 41.8% 46.8% 42.6% 41. Support Oppose Wisconsin voters are not in favor of delaying completion of s Zoo Interchange; Figure 22 shows that 5 oppose this option, compared with 38% in support. Opposition to a Zoo Interchange delay is especially pronounced among voters in metropolitan (32% in favor/65% opposed), but opponents also outnumber supporters outside of the metro area (4 in favor/45% opposed). Opposition to delaying completion of the Zoo Interchange is comparable across partisan lines. Figure 22: Would you SUPPORT or OPPOSE delaying completion of s Zoo Interchange? 10 37.7% 32.4% 39.7% 33.4% 37.3% 42.2% 5 49.8% 64.7% 44.5% 52.2% 49.8% 48. Support Oppose 1 N (registered voters) = 537; margin of error = ±4.2%. 2 is defined as, Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington Counties. Wisconsin Economic Scorecard Q2 2013: Page 10
A clear majority of Wisconsin voters (63%) opposes delaying aid for road construction to local governments. Figure 23 shows that while Republicans express the highest level of support for this proposal, opponents are in the majority across all partisan categories. Figure 23: Would you SUPPORT or OPPOSE delaying aid for road construction to local governments? 10 32.1% 35. 31.1% 25.6% 29.3% 43.2% 5 62.3% 62.6% 62.1% 69. 64.5% 52.1% Support Oppose Regarding possible cuts for funding for the to Amtrak passenger rail line, opponents of such a plan outnumber supporters (42% support/52% oppose). Interestingly, Figure 24 shows that support for such a plan is slightly higher among voters in metropolitan ; 46% of metro voters would support this option, compared to 4 of non metro voters. There is considerable partisan variation among partisans regarding this proposal; just 26% of Democrats support cutting funding for the Amtrak passenger rail line, compared to 59% in support among Republicans. This finding is not surprising, given the partisan battles over rail development in Wisconsin over the last two decades. Figure 24: Would you SUPPORT or OPPOSE cutting funding for the to Chicago Amtrak passenger rail line? 10 41.5% 45.6% 40. 25.6% 41.5% 58.8% 5 52. 50.4% 52.6% 69.8% 49.2% 36.5% Support Oppose Wisconsin Economic Scorecard Q2 2013: Page 11
Figure 25 shows that there is clear opposition to introducing tolls on some Wisconsin highways (36% support/63% oppose). Although voters outside of the metro area are slightly more likely to support toll roads, opponents still outnumber supporters among this group (39% support/6 oppose). There is not notable variation in opinion on this issue among partisans. 10 Figure 25: Would you SUPPORT or OPPOSE introducing tolls on some Wisconsin highways? 35.9% 27.7% 38.8% 32.8% 34.8% 38.5% 5 62.5% 70.5% 59.7% 64.2% 64.7% 59.8% Support Oppose A proposed five cent increase in the gasoline tax provokes strong opposition from Wisconsin voters; figure 26 shows that just 16% would support such a plan, while 83% stand in opposition. While there is some variation across partisan groups on the issue (democrats are more likely to support such a measure, while Republicans are more likely to oppose), large majorities of all groups oppose an increase in the gasoline tax. 10 Figure 26: Would you SUPPORT or OPPOSE raising the gasoline tax by five cents? 15.7% 16.6% 15.4% 20.7% 16.4% 9.8% 5 82.6% 83. 82.4% 76.3% 83.3% 88. Support Oppose Wisconsin Economic Scorecard Q2 2013: Page 12
Figure 27 shows that the option of increasing user fees for passenger vehicles provokes a similar negative response from Wisconsin voters; just 21% would support such a move, while 76% would oppose. There is no meaningful variation across groups; opposition to user fee increases for passenger vehicles is generally uniform. 10 Figure 27: Would you SUPPORT or OPPOSE increasing user fees for passenger vehicles? 20.7% 22.3% 20.1% 24.1% 18.8% 21.8% 5 75.6% 75.6% 75.6% 71. 77.2% 75.9% Support Oppose Registered voters were asked about the possibility of the state government engaging additional borrowing through a bond issue in order to help cover the transportation fund shortfall. Figure 28 shows that most Wisconsin voters (63%) oppose such a plan. Although opposition is strong across all partisan categories, support for additional borrowing is highest among political independents (39% in favor/56% opposed). Wisconsin Republicans are most strongly opposed to additional borrowing (19% in favor/77% opposed). Figure 28: Should the state government borrow more money by issuing bonds to help pay for transportation costs? 10 30.8% 28.4% 31.6% 34.1% 38.6% 19.2% 5 63.2% 63.1% 63.2% 59.4% 56.3% 77. Yes No Wisconsin Economic Scorecard Q2 2013: Page 13
Registered voters were also asked about the possibility of shifting public transit costs from the transportation fund to the state s general fund. Figure 29 shows that opposition to such a move is unambiguously high, and support is quite low (65% in favor/19% opposed). Opposition is consistent across partisan groups. Figure 29: Should the state government shift public transit costs from the transportation fund to the state s general fund? 10 19.3% 20.1% 19. 18.1% 19.1% 18.7% 5 64.5% 69. 62.9% 62. 67.4% 63.9% Yes No With the exception of a delay in construction of an I 94 expansion between and Illinois, there is relatively clear opposition among registered voters to every proposed option for addressing the transportation fund shortfall, leaving policymakers without clear direction. In anticipation of this possibility, voters were presented with a group of options and asked to identify which they preferred most and which they were most opposed to. 6 5 Figure 30: Would you prefer that the shortfall in the transportation fund be covered by: tax and user fee increases 4 3 2 delaying major road construction projects introducing toll roads 1 borrowing money Wisconsin Economic Scorecard Q2 2013: Page 14
6 5 Figure 31: Of the four options, which is your LEAST preferred option? tax and user fee increases 4 3 2 1 delaying major road construction projects introducing toll roads borrowing money Among registered voters, delaying major road construction projects is both the most acceptable and least unacceptable option. Figures 30 and 31 show that delaying road projects is the most common preferred option among 34% of Wisconsin voters, and is the least preferred option among just 12%. Construction delays are preferred by (and opposed by) similar proportions of metro voters and those residing in the rest of the state. This finding challenges the conventional wisdom of a divide in preferences among these two groups when it comes to major highway construction projects traditionally centered in southeastern Wisconsin. Delaying major construction projects is the most common preferred option among 48% of Republican voters, and is the second most common preferred option among independent (31%) Democratic voters (26%.) In addition, delaying road construction projects is the least objectionable option across all groups. Introduction of toll roads is the second most common preferred option among all Wisconsin voters, with 3 making it their first choice; however, it is also tied for first place among the least preferred options, with 32% saying it is their last choice. Preference for toll roads as an option is slightly higher among non metro voters and political independents, but provokes a high degree of opposition across all groups. Tax and user fee increases are the third most common preferred option among registered voters in Wisconsin, with 23% making it their top choice. However, it is tied for first place among the least preferred options, with 32% saying it is the worst option. Tax and user fee increases provoke the highest degree of opposition among both Democratic and Republican voters. Borrowing money is the preferred option of the lowest proportion of Wisconsin voters, with just 13% marking it as their top choice. However, borrowing provokes less overall opposition than tax/user fee increases and the introduction of toll roads; just named it as their least preferred choice. Borrowing is slightly more popular among metro voters and Democratic voters, and has the lowest amount of support among Republican voters. Wisconsin Economic Scorecard Q2 2013: Page 15