Lessons from the 2015 Canadian Federal Election The Magic Wand that Wasn t: Banning the Niqab from Citizenship Ceremonies Presentation to MRIA Ottawa Chapter Thursday, November 26, 2015
Methodology This presentation is comprised of various political polls conducted online with Canadian citizens across all Canadian regions. All of the polls used followed the methodological approach described herein. The various surveys included in this presentation were conducted online across all Canadian regions with citizens who are eligible to vote in Canada. Sample sizes and field dates are included for each item used in the presentation. Weighting and Margin of Error Final survey data were weighted based on the 2011 census according to age, gender, mother tongue, region, and level of education in order to guarantee a representative sample of the Canadian population. Online Survey Survey respondents were selected randomly from LegerWeb s Internet panel, which includes 400,000 Canadian households, and according to a stratification process applied to invitation lists, which ensures optimal respondent representativeness. Panelists were recruited randomly from Leger s telephone surveys. Several quality control measures were implemented to ensure that Leger s surveys with Internet panelists are representative and reliable. Leger has obtained Gold Seal Certification from the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association, the highest reliability rating conferred by the association. How to Read Tables In the following tables, data in bold and red indicate a significantly higher proportion than that of other respondents. Conversely, data in bold and blue indicate a significantly lower proportion than that of other respondents.
A Wand with Strange Magic: The Niqab Directive During the 2015 Canadian Election September 18 th : the Federal Court declares, for the second time, that a 2011 government directive banning the wearing of face coverings during citizenship ceremonies is illegal. The niqab ban became the most hotly debated issue of the campaign. The Conservative Party and the Bloc Québécois were squarely onside with a seemingly unanimous Canadian electorate. The Liberals and the NDP appeared to be firmly on the losing side. Yet, in the end The Liberal Party won a majority of seats; The Conservative Party lost power; The Bloc Québécois had its worst electoral showing ever; and The NDP went from first to third within two weeks of the court s decision. What Happened Exactly? 3
Did Canadians Change their Minds on the Niqab Ban? Not Really As you may know, in 2011, the Government of Canada issued a directive requiring people to show their faces when they take the Oath of Citizenship to become Canadian citizens. This directive means that clothing that covers the face, such as the niqab or the burqa, are not authorized during Canadian citizenship ceremonies. Are you in favour or opposed to the requirement that people show their faces during Canadian citizenship ceremonies? November 16-18, 2015 (n=1,538). 60% Net IN FAVOUR: 78% Net OPPOSED: 16% In Quebec : 89% are IN FAVOUR 6% are OPPOSED 18% 9% 7% 5% 2% Strongly in favour Somewhat in favour Somewhat opposed Strongly opposed Don't know Refusal 4
Was it Because the Ban on Face Coverings for Public Servants Was Unacceptable? Doesn t Look Like it Either During the federal election campaign, the Conservative Party proposed to prohibit attire that covers the face, such as the niqab or the burqa, for all members of the federal civil service. Would you be in favour or opposed to the ban? November 16-18, 2015 (n=1,538). 48% Net IN FAVOUR: 67% Net OPPOSED: 26% In Quebec : 81% are IN FAVOUR 13% are OPPOSED 19% 13% 13% 6% 1% Strongly in favour Somewhat in favour Somewhat opposed Strongly opposed Don't know Refusal 5
What About the Tip Line for Barbaric Cultural Practices? Not so Unpopular Despite Heavy Barrage of Criticisms Another idea that was proposed during the campaign by the Conservative Party was to create a tip line for Canadians to report "barbaric cultural practices" in their area. Would you be in favour or opposed to setting up this type of phone line? November 16-18, 2015 (n=1,538). 33% Net IN FAVOUR: 58% Net OPPOSED: 30% In Quebec : 61% are IN FAVOUR 22% are OPPOSED 24% 19% 11% 11% 2% Strongly in favour Somewhat in favour Somewhat opposed Strongly opposed Don't know Refusal 6
Everything Still Looks Good for Conservative and Bloc Positions, So What Happened? In the short term, pushing the niqab issue seemed to work: Slight immediate bump in Conservative and Bloc support; Liberals very defensive on the issue; and NDP severely wounded in Quebec. In the long run, pushing the niqab issue failed: Despite quasi-unanimous support for a ban on the niqab, it simply did not move votes outside of Quebec; And while it moved votes in Quebec, it did so in unpredictable ways; By breaking the back of the NDP in Quebec, it positioned the Liberals as the clear choice for voters who wanted change; and As the public debate turned sour, the initial ballot question came back to the fore: time for a change of tone? 7
Voting Intentions in Quebec Before and After Niqab Decision: Same Positions, Vastly Different Outcomes Last Poll Before Niqab Decision 50% 45% 40% Two Weeks After Decision: NDP down 18 points A Month After: LPC up 16 points 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 14-Aug-15 2-Sep-15 24-Sep-15 2-Oct-15 9-Oct-15 17-Oct-15 Election Day NDP 40% 46% 38% 28% 28% 25% 25% LPC 21% 20% 22% 24% 28% 31% 36% BQ 21% 18% 20% 24% 23% 23% 19% CPC 17% 13% 18% 21% 20% 20% 17% GP 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% Other 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% Other 8
Voting Intentions in Canada Before and After Niqab Decision: Orange Crash in Quebec Slowly Affected Canadian Results 45% Last Poll Before Niqab Decision 40% NDP decline in Quebec stops, but continues in Canada 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Other August 14, 2015 September 2, 2015 September 24, 2015 October 2, 2015 October 9, 2015 October 17, 2015 Election Day LPC 28% 30% 31% 32% 34% 38% 39,5% CPC 27% 28% 31% 30% 30% 30% 31,9% NDP 33% 31% 29% 26% 25% 22% 19,7% BQ 5% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 4,7% GPC 6% 5% 5% 6% 4% 4% 3,4% Others 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1,0% 9
Voting Intentions in Rest of Canada: No Visible Niqab Effect, Plus NDP Never Held Outright Lead 45% Last Poll Before Niqab Decision NDP Down 18 Points in Quebec by Now 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% Five weeks without a significant shift 15% 10% 5% Other 0% August 14, 2015 September 2, 2015 September 24, 2015 October 2, 2015 October 9, 2015 October 17, 2015 Election Day LPC 30% 34% 34% 34% 36% 40% 41% CPC 30% 33% 35% 33% 34% 34% 37% NDP 30% 26% 25% 25% 24% 21% 18% GPC 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 3% Others 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 10
Most Influential Events of the 2015 Campaign: Niqab First in Quebec, Last Outside of Quebec! Which of the following events that have occurred since the beginning of the campaign has had the most influence on your voting intentions? (September 21 st to 23 rd, 2015, n = 2,115) ROC Quebec Weighted n= 1606 499 Unweighted n= 1092 1023 The announcement that Canada is in a recession 12% 9% The announcement of a budget surplus of 1.9 billion 11% 6% The announcement of new tax credits (businesses, families and individuals) 9% 11% Migrant crisis 8% 7% The Duffy trial 8% 6% Early triggering of a 78-day election campaign 7% 8% The first two leaders' debates 6% 4% The announcement of massive investments in infrastructure 5% 6% Wearing a niqab at citizenship ceremonies 4% 18% I don t know 22% 19% I prefer not to answer 7% 6% 11
The Difference One Simple Explanation Makes: About Values, or Simply About Identification? If citizenship candidates who wanted to take the oath with a face covering were required to identify themselves with their face uncovered before a judge prior to taking part in the ceremony, would you be in favour or opposed to letting these candidates take the oath while wearing a niqab or burqa? November 16-18, 2015 (n=1,538). Net IN FAVOUR: 47% Net OPPOSED: 46% 36% Support for niqab ban was 32 points higher (78%) before this explanation 23% 24% In Quebec : 29% are IN FAVOUR 65% are OPPOSED (52% strongly opposed) 11% 6% 1% Strongly in favour Somewhat in favour Somewhat opposed Strongly opposed Don't know Refusal 12
Should the Liberals Drop the Court Battle Over the Niqab? Far Cry from Initial Level of Support for the Ban The directive prohibiting people from wearing the niqab or the burqa during citizenship ceremonies was struck down in a court judgment rendered in September. This judgment now allows the niqab or burqa to be worn during citizenship ceremonies as long as candidates identify themselves with their face uncovered before a judge prior to taking the oath. Justin Trudeau's new Liberal government has decided not to appeal this decision. Personally, are you in favour or opposed to the government's decision? November 16-18, 2015 (n=1,538). 28% Net IN FAVOUR: 49% Net OPPOSED: 43% 27% In Quebec : 34% are IN FAVOUR 56% are OPPOSED 21% 16% 7% 2% Strongly in favour Somewhat in favour Somewhat opposed Strongly opposed Don't know Refusal 13
This Niqab Debate Brought Back The Initial Ballot Question: Was it Time for Change in Ottawa? No matter how the question was asked, or by whom, some results were always the same from Day 1: Approximately two-thirds of voters said it was time for a change in Ottawa; The Conservative Party was never able to generate any meaningful level of support among voters as a potential second choice. On October 2 nd, when Canadians were asked if they would be disappointed by a victory from any of the three parties 56% said they would have been disappointed by a Conservative victory, compared to only 24% who would have been happy; This compares to only 37% and 35% who would have been disappointed with a Liberal or NDP win. 14
Moment of Decision and Main Reason for Vote: The Later One Decided, the More Likely One Voted Against Another Party Did you mainly vote FOR a party, or AGAINST another party? When did you make your final decision? (October 21-22, 2015; n = 1,518) % Who Voted AGAINST Another Party 49% 39% 32% 27% 21% 10% Total Against Before Campaign Early in Campaign After Debates Last Week In Polling Booth Moment of Final Decision 15
The 15% of Voters Who Decided During the Last Week or at the Polling Station AND Voted Against a Party, Voted for Who did you vote for? Base: those who made their final decision during the last week or in the polling booth, while also voting mainly against another party (October 21-22, 2015; n = 197) % Final Vote 55% 27% 12% 4% 3% Liberal NDP Conservative Bloc Green 16
Canadians, Including Some Conservatives, Were Happy with a Liberal Majority Were you satisfied with the election of a Liberal majority government? (October 21-22, 2015; n = 1,518) % Satisfied Liberal Vote: 39.5% 93% 58% 60% 45% 31% 12% Canada Liberal NDP Green Bloc Conservative 17
Conclusion: This Niqab Debate Mattered, but in Rather Unexpected Ways Even in quasi-unanimous Quebec, a majority of voters chose parties that did not support the ban. Liberals and NDP beat the Conservatives and the Bloc. In a strange irony, Quebec voters exposed the NDP s weakness outside of the province. While Conservative vote did not move outside of Quebec, its composition may yet have changed as a result: Key suburban ridings with large immigrant populations did not vote conservative this time around. The party did very well in pre-existing strongholds where a higher proportion of the vote did not help them. Voters tired of negative messaging and tone were turned off by the niqab debate even if they agreed with the idea. While the context was different, the 2014 Quebec election highlighted a similar pattern 18
Another Magic Wand That Wasn t: The Charter of Quebec Values in the 2014 Provincial Election Last Poll Before Charter of Values Referendum Issue Takes Centre Stage 45% 40% PQ Gains 10 Points in 6 Months 35% 30% PQ Loses 12 Points in 3 Weeks! 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 09-Feb-13 30-Mar-13 07-May-13 21-Jun-13 30-Aug-13 11-Oct-13 06-Dec-13 18-Jan-14 05-Mar-14 15-Mar-14 25-Mar-15 05-Apr-14 PLQ 31% 33% 35% 38% 36% 36% 37% 33% 35% 37% 40% 39% 42% PQ 33% 29% 27% 27% 32% 34% 32% 36% 37% 37% 33% 29% 25% CAQ 20% 20% 19% 19% 18% 17% 19% 17% 15% 14% 15% 22% 23% QS 8% 9% 11% 8% 6% 8% 8% 5% 8% 9% 9% 9% 8% PV 3% 4% 2% 3% 3% 4% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% Other 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% Election 2014 19
Two Issues Voters Didn t Want to Hear About in 2014? The Charter of Values and Sovereignty During the course of the campaign, would you like to hear more, or less, about the following topics? (March 12-14, 2014; n = 1,215) Topic MORE LESS DK/Refusal n= 1,205 Economy and Jobs 85% 9% 7% Healthcare 84% 10% 7% Public Finances 77% 15% 8% Education 73% 18% 8% Corruption 49% 41% 9% Charter of Values 27% 63% 10% Sovereignty 20% 69% 11% 20
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