Fertility rate and employment rate: how do they interact to each other? Presentation by Gyula Pulay, general director of the Research Institute of SAO
Changing trends From the middle of the last century the gradual increase of female employment went hand in hand with the sharp decline of the fertility rate. It seems that this tendency had been turned since the 1990s, and nowadays the total fertility rate is higher in those countries where the female employment rate is relative high also.
Grouping of EU member states according to fertility rate and female employment rate Ranks according to female employment rate High (1-9. (10-18. (19-27. Relative high (1-9. 6 countries: United Kingdom, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Netherlands Belgium, Ireland, France, Ranks according to total fertility rate (10-18. 1 country: Latvia 4 countries: Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Lithuania 4 countries: Luxembourg, Spain, Greece, Malta (19-27. Austria, Germany Cyprus, Portugal, 5 countries: Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Poland, Italy
Results 1. There is positive correlation between the total fertility rate and the female employment rate. There are a few European countries where total fertility rate remained low contrary to the high female participation in the labour force. There is not any country in the EU where the low female employment is combined with high fertility. There is not any European country which is dominated by traditional pattern in which mothers are out of work and have a lot of children. The positive statistical correlation does not necessary mean that there is a real direct link between fertility and female employment. There should be certain cogwheels which bind together fertility and employment. Two factors seem to be the cogwheels: the flexibility of the labour market and availability of the child care facilities.
Grouping of EU member states according to fertility rate and ratio of women working part time Ranks according to total fertility rate Relative high (1-9. (10-18. (19-27. Ranks according to ratio of women working part time High (1-9. (10-18. (19-27. 6 countries: United Kingdom, Sweden, Belgium Denmark, Ireland, Netherlands Finland, France 1 country: Estonia 1 country: Luxembourg Malta, Slovenia, Spain 5 countries: Latvia, Greece, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic Austria, Germany 4 countries: Romania, Poland, Italy, Portugal Hungary, Cyprus, Slovakia
Results 2. The two cogwheels have positive effects both on fertility and female employment. The mechanism could be the following: in countries which provide flexible working arrangement and easy access to child care the employment rate of the mothers with young children is almost as high than that of the women s without children. Therefore the overall female employment rate is relatively high. At the same time the favourable conditions for the reconciliation of family and work related duties encourage mothers to give birth to the planed children. On the contrary in countries where these provisions are not acceptable families postpone the planned delivery of children, which in many cases leads to the frustration of the plans.
Grouping of EU member states according to fertility rate and female employment rate Ranks according to ratio of childcare provided to 0-3 years old children High (1-9. (10-18. (19-27. Relative high (1-9. 6 countries: United Kingdom, Sweden, Belgium Denmark, France, Netherlands Ireland, Finland, Estonia Ranks according to total fertility rate (10-18. Luxembourg, Spain Greece, Bulgaria 5 countries: Czech Republic, Lithuania, Latvia, Malta, Slovenia (19-27. 1 country: Portugal 4 countries: Cyprus, Germany, Italy, Romania 4 countries: Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Austria
Grouping of EU member states according to fertility rate and the difference between the employment rate of women with and without children Ranks according to the difference between the employment rate of women with and without children Small (1-8. (9-16. Big (17-24. Relative high (1-8. Finland,, France Belgium Netherlands Luxembourg 2 countries United Kingdom, Estonia Ranks according to total fertility rate (9-16. 1 country: Greece, Lithuania Austria, Latvia, Bulgaria, 4 countries: Spain, Malta, Czech Republic, Malta (17-24. Romania, Portugal Cyprus, Italy Poland Hungary, Slovakia, Germany
The difference between the employment rate of men with and without children Bulgaria 4,7 Hungary 7,0 Germany 10,8 Austria 5,3 Cyprus 7,8 Portugal 11,5 Malta 5,3 Romania 8,6 Slovenia 12,6 Estonia 5,5 Slovakia 8,7 Italy 13,1 Luxembourg 5,5 Spain 8,8 Finland 13,2 Netherland 6,6 Latvia 10,3 Greece 14,3 Czech Republic 6,8 Belgium 10,5 France 14,4 UK 6,8 Lithuania 10,7 Poland 16,5
How does childbearing affect the labour market activity of men? Employment rate of men with young children is higher than that of men without children. Does it mean that a father has to work more while his wife is looking after their children? May be, but not necessary. According to our analysis the causal relation works in the opposite way: men out of work (unemployed, students) can not afford themselves to have children. Therefore the high male employment rate may have a positive influence on fertility. In the case of women the relationship is more indirect.
Conclusions The sudden decrease of the maximum length of the childbearing allowance would lead to a drop of the fertility. Hungarian data underline this risk. The key question is the development of those provisions which help to reconciliate work and family duties: more flexible working arrangements and available childcare facilities contribute both to the increase of the fertility rate and the female employment rate.
Thank you for your attention!