U.S. Immigration Policy Potential Impact on CRE September 2017
Introduction U.S. Immigration Policy Potential Impact on CRE SIGNIFICANT OVERHAUL OF IMMIGRATION LEGISLATION PROPOSED In early August, the Trump administration announced its support for proposed legislation known as the RAISE Act that would enact several changes to U.S. immigration policy including: A hard limit on the number of refugees allowed to enter the country each year (50,000) A reduction in total legal immigration over the coming decade A change in how immigrants are prioritized and granted access to the U.S. These policy modifications could impact how many people are granted access into the U.S and could alter the types of skills that are being prioritized as part of immigration policy. Both changes would have a significant impact on the real estate industry and corporate occupiers around the country.
Introduction Real estate and related industries disproportionately affected by immigrant labor force Certain industries are likely to be disproportionately impacted by changes in legal and/or unauthorized immigration. While legal, foreign-born workers make up roughly 17% of the U.S. labor force, they fill 31% of buildings/grounds cleaning and maintenance jobs, and 25% of construction positions. Of course, construction jobs are clustered in cities that have experienced disproportionate development. Skilled labor programs Skilled foreign-born workers are most likely to be in management/business occupations driving office demand. The H-1B visa program which accounts for the second largest number of work visas, behind NAFTA-related visas provides educated talent to technology and services firms. Half of all H-1B visa holders reside in just five states: California, New York, Texas, New Jersey, and Illinois. Outlook It remains to be seen what, if any, immigration policy changes will be implemented. Some lawmakers, including members of the President s party, came out against the proposed RAISE Act immediately. However, if the changes lower the number of work visas available, those reductions will likely create additional challenges for occupiers already facing full employment. Fewer foreign-born workers in the U.S. will also create challenges for the real estate industry in terms of meeting construction demand and supplying other critical roles.
Immigrants Attracted to Larger U.S. Cities Immigration populations tend to be highest in large coastal cities. In 2017, nearly half of U.S. population growth will come from immigration. Most Populous U.S. Cities Population Foreign-born % New York City 8,550,405 37.2% Los Angeles 3,971,883 38.2% Chicago 2,720,546 21.1% Houston 2,296,224 28.5% 29.9% Foreign-born population: 29.9% of residents in the 10 largest U.S. cities are foreign born. This is twice the proportion for the next 20 largest cities (15.3%). Historically, immigrants to the U.S. have grouped together in large cities to maximize economic opportunity and to ease the cultural transition. Philadelphia 1,567,442 12.7% Phoenix 1,563,025 20.0% San Antonio 1,469,845 14.1% 15.3% 13.2% Six out of 10 foreign-born residents in America live in the 10 largest cities. San Diego 1,394,928 26.6% Dallas 1,300,092 24.3% San Jose 1,026,908 38.9% 61% of foreign-born U.S. residents live in these 10 cities. Largest Cities: 1-10 Largest Cities: 11-30 U.S. Average Foreign-born residents account for 30% of all residents in those markets. Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Change in Immigrant Population* Gateway Cities Rely on Immigration In fact, population growth is strongly driven by immigration growth in cities like NY and LA. 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 Los Angeles Miami New York City Chicago San Francisco Washington, DC Dallas Houston 500,000 Boston San Jose San Diego Phoenix Atlanta Detroit Philadelphia Seattle Minneapolis Inland Empire Cleveland Tampa Orlando 0-500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 Change in Population* Between 1995 and 2015, population growth in large gateway cities was highly dependent upon international immigration. The native-born population actually shrank in New York and Los Angeles during that 20-year period. Conversely, Sunbelt cities have seen large domestic migration be the key driver of population and job growth. Source: U.S. Census Bureau (excludes 2000 and 2010, for the Decennial Censuses) *Change in immigrant and total population from 1995 to 2015.
But Immigrants Are Spending Elsewhere... In 2015, 36% of persons obtaining permanent resident status were in gateway cities. 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - Gateway Cities 2015 New York 162,175 Los Angeles 82,979 Washington, DC 37,340 Chicago 36,658 San Francisco 34,152 Boston 22,836 2015 % of All Cities 2006 % of All Cities 15% 18% 8% 10% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% Gateway City 376,140 36% 41% In 2015, the six gateway markets were all among the nine cities with the largest number of people obtaining permanent resident status. New York, Los Angeles, and Miami had more residents obtain permanent status (323,000) than the next 13 cities combined. There is a trend away from gateway cities. In 2015, 36% of persons obtaining permanent status were in one of the six Gateway markets, which is down from 41% in 2006. Source: Department of Homeland Security Note: Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2015 (Table 5)
to the West, Texas, and Midwest West Texas 2006-2010 2006-2010 2011-2015 2011-2015 % Increase Salt Lake City 17,925 18,747 +4.6% San Diego 96,568 100,863 +4.4% Seattle-Tacoma 88,450 89,209 +0.9% San Jose-Santa Clara 95,831 96,127 +0.3% Midwest 2006-2010 2011-2015 % Increase Indianapolis 17,278 18,019 +4.3% Kansas City 18,788 19,348 +3.0% Denver 40,876 41,664 +1.9% % Increase El Paso 22,382 23,736 +6.0% San Antonio 23,006 24,081 +4.7% Austin 26,443 27,537 +4.1% Dallas-Ft Worth 131,749 133,220 +1.1% Gateway Cities South 2006-2010 2006-2010 2011-2015 2011-2015 % Increase Chicago 203,015 188,309-7.2% Los Angeles 497,750 463,037-7.0% Washington, DC 222,407 207,170-6.9% New York 965,266 923,726-4.3% San Francisco-Oakland 174,155 168,248-3.4% Boston 129,139 126,587-2.0% U.S. 5,599,113 5,395,024-3.6% % Increase Charlotte 24,496 24,561 +0.3% At the same time, immigrants obtaining permanent resident status have become more likely to end up in secondary cities. Similar to domestic migration, immigration growth is primarily happening in the southern half of the U.S. Large jumps have been seen in: Texas (El Paso, San Antonio, and Austin) West (Salt Lake City and San Diego) Midwest (Indianapolis and Kansas City). Source: Department of Homeland Security Note: Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2015 (Table 5)
Thousands Thousands Foreign-born Working Population Increasing 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 23,000 22,000 21,000 Workforce Composition # - Foreign Born % - Foreign Born 18.0% 17.5% 17.0% 16.5% 16.0% 15.5% 15.0% 14.5% Native-born Workforce Gap 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Retiring Age (65) Entering Work Force (25) Between 2019 and 2028, the U.S. nativeborn, working-age (25-65) population is expected to decline by 2.1 million people. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Pew Research Center, Bureau of Labor Statistics, United Nations Note: According to the BLS, the foreign-born designation includes any persons born outside of the U.S. (to parents who were not U.S. citizens) and includes legallyadmitted immigrants, refugees, temporary residents such as students and temporary workers, and undocumented immigrants. Foreign-born workers make up 17.0% of all private employment as of July 2017, which is up from 15.2% in February 2009. During that 8.5-year period, the number of foreign-born workers has increased by 4.2 million and sits at 27.5 million. Immigrants are more likely to be working age (69.5% are between 25 and 64 years old as compared to 59.6% of U.S. residents). Starting in 2019, there will be a decrease in nativeborn residents in the working age window.
Thousands Growth Across Multiple Industry Sectors Foreign-born workers have grown across most occupations and make up a larger share of most occupations than in 2011. 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 3,705 2,420 3,468 3,820 3,569 3,367 3,792 4,793 3,548 2,991 3,803 5,485 4,750 5,501 6,141 3,822 3,495 4,102 6,070 8,291 2000 2005 2010 2016 Production, transportation, and material moving occupations Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations Sales and office occupations Service occupations Management, professional, and related occupations 30% 25% 20% 15% 26% 22% 17% Construction and extraction occupations Computer and mathematical occupations Life, physical, and social science occupations 29% 26% 23% Since 2000, the number of foreign-born workers employed in the U.S. has increased by 42%. The fastest-growing categories over that time have been management / professional occupations (+75%) and service occupations (+59%). Despite growing the ecommerce industry, the growth among foreign-born workers in the production, transportation, and moving occupations has been negligible over the past 16 years (+3%). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
% of Workers = Foreign -born Which Industries Depend More on Foreign Labor? 17% of the working population in the U.S. are foreign-born. 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Farming, fishing and forestry Science and engineering Transportation and material moving % of Working Population = Foreign-born (17%) Military Education, arts and media Legal, community and social services Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance Construction and extraction Food preparation and serving Health care Sales Office and administrative support Installation, repair and production Management and business 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 # of Foreign-born Workers An estimated 3.5 million foreign-born residents work in the management and business fields. Other occupations with large numbers of foreignborn workers include: Installation, repair, and production (3.1 million) Office and admin support (2.7 million) Sales (2.6 million) The occupation most dependent on the nonnative workforce is farming, fishing and forestry, where foreign-born workers make up the largest proportion of all employees (41%). Source: Pew Research tabulations of 2015 American Community Survey
Biggest Cities for Construction, Science and Grounds There are 2.7 million foreign-born science and engineering workers in the 11 markets below. 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Occupation Employment Statistics Science and engineering Construction and extraction Building and grounds cleaning / maintenance Behind farming, the occupations with the largest proportion of foreign-born workers are: Building and grounds cleaning / maintenance (31%) Construction and extraction (25%) Science and engineering (22%) Eleven markets have more than 300,000 workers in these three occupations. These 11 cities employ a total of 1.2 million building and grounds, 1.5 million construction, and 2.7 million science and engineering workers.
# (Thousands) H1B Visas Concentrated in 5 States: CA, NY, TX, NJ, & IL Five states (CA, NY, TX, NJ, IL) account for just over a third of all office-using employment and half of all H1B visas. H1B visas account for the second-largest group of worker visas behind NAFTA visas. 100 80 60 H1B 2015 (#) % of State's Visas State % of All H1B Visas % of Office-using Employment California 18.6% 12.3% New York 11.8% 7.3% Texas 8.1% 8.2% New Jersey 6.1% 3.1% Illinois 4.5% 4.5% of Five States 49.1% 35.5% 8% 6% 4% As of 2015, there were approximately 540,000 H1B holders in the U.S., and nearly half of them (49.1%) were in just five states. 40 20 2% Those same five states only account for 35.5% of the nation s office-using employment. 0 0% Source: Department of Homeland Security; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES) Note: Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2015 (Non-immigrant Supplemental Table 3)
H1B Visas in Many Cities, Not Just Traditional Tech Cities Among H1B visas, the most commonly certified positions are computer- and software-related. Top Cities for Certified H1B Source: Office of Foreign Labor Certification Note: OFLC 2015 Annual Report Positions Certified New York City 63,502 Houston 30,255 Philadelphia 29,346 Atlanta 27,907 Chicago 26,793 San Francisco 26,126 San Jose 23,397 Dallas 15,335 Seattle 15,183 Redmond 14,752 19.7% Computer Systems Analysts 16.5% Software Developers, Applications 15.1% Computer Programmers H1B Applications: The top three most commonly certified occupations make up 51.3% of all certified applications. A subset of H1B visas do get certified by the Office of Foreign Labor Certification (OFLC). Certified H1B visas are tracked to position and location. In 2015, a large proportion of certified H1B visas were in major tech markets such as New York, San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Seattle, and Redmond. However, H1B visa holders do end up in other non-traditional tech markets like Houston, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Dallas. For a Cushman & Wakefield s detailed analysis of tech cities, click here.
For More Information: Revathi Greenwood Head of Research, Americas +1 202 407 8122 revathi.greenwood@cushwake.com David C. Smith Senior Director, Occupier Research, Americas +1 404 853 5310 david.smith4@cushwake.com Rebecca Rockey Economist, Head of Forecasting, Americas +1 212 841 7508 rebecca.rockey@cushwake.com