Breakthrough Economic Message Results of major web survey on the economy July 18, 2011
2 The experiment This presentation is based on a national web survey of 2,000 likely 2012 voters (2,000 weighted) conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps July 7-11, 2011. Unless otherwise noted, margin of error= +/- 2.2 percentage points (at 95% CI.) The respondents were organized into five experimental groups, with 400 interviews each. Each group heard the same Republican message framework (with two distinct messages in fixed order, closing with the Republican take on the policy choice ahead). Each group heard one of five Democratic economic message frameworks (with two distinct messages in fixed order, closing with the Democratic take on policy choice ahead). The Democratic policy choice was the same in each of the experimental groups. These blocs of messages were followed by a battery of party attributes, presidential attributes, and congressional and presidential votes, which allowed us to see whether particular message frameworks and combinations of messages would impact perceptions of the parties on the economy, perceptions of the president, and the vote for for Congress and the president. Each group of 400 interviews was controlled for (2012 likely voter) demographics, party identification, and certain thermometer ratings to make sure each experimental bloc of interviews was comparable politically and demographically to ensure that differences at the conclusion of the experiment were produced by the message exercise.
3 The experiment and economic frameworks ALL VOTERS GROUP 1 GROUP 2 GROUP 3 GROUP 4 GROUP 5 Rep. Spending Progress No Blame Change Change Middle Class Game Rep. Failed Compete Crisis 1 st Term; Change 2 ND Middle Class American Jobs American Jobs Republican Policy Contrast Democratic Policy Choice Democratic Policy Choice Democratic Policy Choice Democratic Policy Choice Democratic Policy Choice President and party attributes President and party attributes President and party attributes President and party attributes President and party attributes President and party attributes President and congressional vote President and congressional vote President and congressional vote President and congressional vote President and congressional vote President and congressional vote
Tough Starting Point on the American Economy
Democrats down 9 points on economy and twice that on spending and deficits, says June Dcorps poll Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. If you do not know, just tell me and we will move on to the next item. Republicans much better Democrats much better Dem-Rep The economy Economy 46 27 19 37-9 Has the right approach to Spending spending and deficits 48 26 16 31-17 Note: Data from the latest Democracy Corps National Poll, June 18-21, 2011 110 85 60 35 10 15 40 65
And June poll says: toss-up races for president and Congress I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the elections for Congress in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democrat or the Republican? Presidential Vote Congressional Vote +2 +3 47 45 44 47 Obama Romney Democrat Republican * Results from Democracy Corps June National Survey
The Republican Economic Messages
Republican economic framework Please imagine that a Republican leader in Congress made the following statements about the economy. After reading each statement, are you much more likely to support this Republican leader, somewhat more likely, just a little more likely, no more likely or less likely to support them? Spending Failed Rep Policy Contrast We cannot keep spending money we don't have. The government should live within its means, just as all Americans do every day. This endless spending by the federal government will leave our children and grandchildren saddled with insurmountable debt and will plunge us deeper into recession. We need to ease regulations, cut taxes, and encourage small businesses to hire again - that is the way to improve the economy and create jobs in this country. Much more likely 50 26 President Obama's economic policies have failed. His party's leaders embarked on a stimulus spending spree that added hundreds of billions of dollars to the debt, yet failed to deliver on its promises to create jobs. Now the Democrats want to increase taxes, which will burden us with more debt and cost us our economic future. We have to take away the blank check and head in a new direction by focusing on a plan to empower small business owners and encourage entrepreneurship and growth. 40 22 We can't keep moving in a different direction that's taking our country down. Republicans will flat out oppose any Democratic effort to increase taxes on anybody. We will oppose Democratic plans to increase the debt and increase spending, including their new trillion dollar health care plan. We have different priorities. Republicans will reduce the size of government and cut taxes for small businesses and families. We must reduce our nation's debt dramatically and require a balanced budget so America can prosper again. 42 24
Open-end takeaway: spending, taxes and government After hearing the Republican arguments about the economy, what stands out in your own mind?
Current Obama message not on but a powerful Obama alternative emerges
Progress-America compete gets low marks Please imagine that a Democratic leader in Congress made the following statements about the economy. After reading each statement, are you much more likely to support this Democratic leader, somewhat more likely, just a little more likely, no more likely or less likely to support them? Split C Progress Compete Policy Choice We made hard choices to get the economy back on track. The Recovery Act saved 3.6 million jobs; 110 million working families received a tax cut; small businesses received loans to stay afloat; and infrastructure projects jumpstarted industry and job growth. Times are still very tough, but we don't want to go back to where we were before. That means moving forward with hard economic reforms and investing in 21st century jobs and education so we can compete and win in the global economy of the future. 31 12 America is the greatest nation in the world, but the Chinese and Indians are pouring everything into education and building modern economies. Our mission has to be creating American jobs and restoring our middle class, but that means outinnovating them and winning in the global economy. We need to cut our debt while also making critical investments in education, research, and technology. That's the way America wins the future. 37 15 We have to make the right choices for America. Republicans now oppose any tax increase on those fortunate enough to earn over 250,000 dollars a year and oppose eliminating any tax breaks for oil companies or Wall Street. Their plan ends Medicare. The Democrats offer a different direction. We must get to a balanced budget by asking more of millionaires, abolishing wasteful programs and special interest tax breaks. We must increase our investments in education, technology and American industry. 43 26
No blame game on economy; crisis first term and economic change in 2 nd gets very high marks Please imagine that a Democratic leader in Congress made the following statements about the economy. After reading each statement, are you much more likely to support this Democratic leader, somewhat more likely, just a little more likely, no more likely or less likely to support them? Split G Blame Game Crisis 1 st Term; Change 2 ND Policy Choice Half the country blames George Bush for the state of the economy and the other half blames Barack Obama. But that blame game will not help create new jobs. We face immense economic problems that will take years to solve. We need to start working together to reduce spending and the deficit and ask the richest to pay their fair share of taxes. We need to support education, innovation and new American industries. 48 26 When Obama took office, the deficit was surging, homes and stocks lost value and we were losing 750,000 jobs a month. The auto industry went bankrupt. Not everything Obama did was popular, and it has taken 4 years to get back to a place where people can breathe, but barely. Now, the economic focus has to be on changing our economy - on getting new American jobs, raising working and middle class incomes, cutting wasteful spending and getting the deficit down, while asking the wealthiest to contribute. 46 22 We have to make the right choices for America. Republicans now oppose any tax increase on those fortunate enough to earn over 250,000 dollars a year and oppose eliminating any tax breaks for oil companies or Wall Street. Their plan ends Medicare. The Democrats offer a different direction. We must get to a balanced budget by asking more of millionaires, abolishing wasteful programs and special interest tax breaks. We must increase our investments in education, technology and American industry. 49 25
Open-ended takeaway: taxing rich, economy, and people After hearing the Democratic arguments about the economy, what stands out in your own mind?
Clear effect of framework on Congressional vote I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections for Congress in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? Democrat Republican +6 +1 40 46 42 41 Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Progress/ Compete No blame game/ 1st Term Crisis 14
Effect of Message frameworks on Presidential vote: Obama lead doubles I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? Obama Romney +3 +6 40 41 37 35 Obama Romney Obama Romney Progress/ Compete No blame game/ 1st Term Crisis 15
No blame game; 1 st term crisis; 2 nd term economic change moves Democrats even on economy Now for something different. For the following issues, overall do you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with each issue the economy? Democrats much better Republicans much better +11 Even 30 41 37 37 14 22 23 17 Total Democrat Total Republican Total Democrat Total Republican Progress/ Compete No blame game/ 1st Term Crisis
Framework Comparison: Which party is on your side? Now for something different. For the following issues, overall do you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with each issue being on your side? Democrats much better Republicans much better +1 +8 35 34 41 33 18 25 19 21 Total Democrat Total Republican Total Democrat Total Republican Progress/ Compete No blame game/ 1st Term Crisis
No blame game; crisis 1 st term and economic change 2 nd pushes up confidence in Democrats on spending/deficits Now for something different. For the following issues, overall do you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with each issue has the right approach to spending and deficits? Democrats much better Republicans much better +16 +9 40 39 24 30 12 22 22 15 Total Democrat Total Republican Total Democrat Total Republican Progress/ Compete No blame game/ 1st Term Crisis
This new Obama framework makes makes huge difference on bringing the right kind of change Now for something different. For the following issues, overall do you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with each issue bringing the right kind of change? Democrats much better Republicans much better +5 +7 30 35 38 31 14 19 19 20 Total Democrat Total Republican Total Democrat Total Republican Progress/ Compete No blame game/ 1st Term Crisis
Regression on Obama vote: on your side and trust to make the right choices most important Obama attributes Below is a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. Not well at all Very well Well- Not Well Offers a hopeful vision of the future hopeful vision 48 32 22 50 +2 Strong leader strong leader 51 31 19 46-5 On your side on your side 52 36 16 44-8 Trust to make the right choices for the country trust 54 37 15 43-11
New Obama economic framework produces major gain for Obama on trust to make the right decisions Below is a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well, or not well at trust to make the right decisions for the country. Very well Not well at all +14 +6 41 55 46 51 35 38 15 18 Total Well Total Not Well Total Well Total Not Well Progress/ Compete No blame game/ 1st Term Crisis
New Obama economic framework also better on Obama offering hopeful vision of the future Below is a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well, or not well at all offers a hopeful vision of the future. Very well Not well at all +4 +8 50 46 45 53 29 22 24 35 Total Well Total Not well Total Well Total Not Well Progress/ Compete No blame game/ 1st Term Crisis
Democrats most powerful message: Change Washington to put middle class first
Change Washington to put middle class first gets high marks Please imagine that a Democratic leader in Congress made the following statements about the economy. After reading each statement, are you much more likely to support this Democratic leader, somewhat more likely, just a little more likely, no more likely or less likely to support them? Split E Change Middle Class Dem Policy Choice We have to start by changing Washington. It is dominated by big banks, big donors and corporate lobbyists. So politicians rush to bailout Wall Street. Big oil keeps its tax breaks and companies still get breaks for outsourcing jobs. The middle class won't catch a break until we confront the power of money and the lobbyists. Expose their meetings, clean out tax loopholes, and limit donations. Getting the economy back for the middle class starts with changing Washington. Much more likely 44 21 The biggest problem we face is the decline of the middle class. The middle class has been smashed and struggles to keep up with the rising costs of gasoline, college education and health care. We need to help small businesses, help people who work hard with education and training and protect critical middle class programs like Medicare for the elderly. We need to invest in innovation and new energy to create the middle class jobs of the future. Much more likely 49 26 We have to make the right choices for America. Republicans now oppose any tax increase on those fortunate enough to earn over 250,000 dollars a year and oppose eliminating any tax breaks for oil companies or Wall Street. Their plan ends Medicare. The Democrats offer a different direction. We must get to a balanced budget by asking more of millionaires, abolishing wasteful programs and special interest tax breaks. We must increase our investments in education, technology and American industry. Much more likely 44 26
Open-ended takeaway: Middle class After hearing the Democratic arguments about the economy, what stands out in your own mind?
Change and American Jobs are a strong combination Please imagine that a Democratic leader in Congress made the following statements about the economy. After reading each statement, are you much more likely to support this Democratic leader, somewhat more likely, just a little more likely, no more likely or less likely to support them? Change Split D American Jobs Dem Policy Choice We have to start by changing Washington. It is dominated by big banks, big donors and corporate lobbyists. So politicians rush to bailout Wall Street. Big oil keeps its tax breaks and companies still get breaks for outsourcing jobs. The middle class won't catch a break until we confront the power of money and the lobbyists. Expose their meetings, clean out tax loopholes, and limit donations. Getting the economy back for the middle class starts with changing Washington. 46 21 America needs to get back to creating American jobs and growing the middle class. China will soon be the largest economy, even as they violate trade agreements and steal our technology. Our leading export is jobs, even as we give tax breaks to companies that outsource jobs. We have to get American companies to expand in America by rewarding those that create jobs here. We have to invest in American education, innovation and new industries that grow American jobs. 50 26 We have to make the right choices for America. Republicans now oppose any tax increase on those fortunate enough to earn over 250,000 dollars a year and oppose eliminating any tax breaks for oil companies or Wall Street. Their plan ends Medicare. The Democrats offer a different direction. We must get to a balanced budget by asking more of millionaires, abolishing wasteful programs and special interest tax breaks. We must increase our investments in education, technology and American industry. 42 23
Middle Class primer powerful Please imagine that a Democratic leader in Congress made the following statements about the economy. After reading each statement, are you much more likely to support this Democratic leader, somewhat more likely, just a little more likely, no more likely or less likely to support them? Middle Class The biggest problem we face is the decline of the middle class. The middle class has been smashed and struggles to keep up with the rising costs of gasoline, college education and health care. We need to help small businesses, help people who work hard with education and training and protect critical middle class programs like Medicare for the elderly. We need to invest in innovation and new energy to create the middle class jobs of the future. 52 26 Split F American Jobs America needs to get back to creating American jobs and growing the middle class. China will soon be the largest economy, owning trillions of our debt. Our leading export is jobs, even as we reward companies that outsource jobs. We have to get American companies to expand in America. We have to invest in American education, innovation and new industries that grow American jobs. Much more likely 46 25 Dem Policy Choice We have to make the right choices for America. Republicans now oppose any tax increase on those fortunate enough to earn over 250,000 dollars a year and oppose eliminating any tax breaks for oil companies or Wall Street. Their plan ends Medicare. The Democrats offer a different direction. We must get to a balanced budget by asking more of millionaires, abolishing wasteful programs and special interest tax breaks. We must increase our investments in education, technology and American industry. 45 27
28 But Change-Middle Class produces dramatically better result in presidential contest I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? Obama Romney +12 +6 +5 +2 44 32 41 40 39 35 35 37 Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Change/Middle Class Blame Game/ 1 st Term Crisis Change/ American Jobs Middle Class/ American Jobs
29 And Change-Middle Class produces the best results for Congress I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections for Congress in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? Democrat Republican +1 +1 +5 Even 42 41 42 41 38 43 40 40 DemocratRepublican DemocratRepublican DemocratRepublican DemocratRepublican Change/Middle Class Blame Game/ 1 st Term Crisis Change/ American Jobs Middle Class/ American Jobs
Regression model says on your side and bringing right kind of change are most important attributes to win Now for something different. For the following issues, overall do you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with each issue? Republicans much better Democrats much better Dem-Rep Medicare medicare 26 15 23 42 +16 Building up the middle class middle class 32 19 23 42 +10 Being on your side on your side 32 20 21 36 +4 Bringing the right kind of change right kind of change 35 20 16 33-2 Shares your values Shares your values 39 25 20 36-3 The economy economy 38 24 18 35-3 Has the right approach to jobs jobs 36 22 14 32-4 Has the right approach to spending and deficits spending/deficits 41 24 13 28-13
Change-Middle Class and No Blame Game/1 st Term Crisis put Democrats well ahead on being on your side Now for something different. For the following issues, overall do you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with each issue being on your side? Dems much better Reps much better +5 +8 +4 +1 36 31 41 33 34 34 30 33 22 17 25 21 20 20 20 21 DemocratRepublican DemocratRepublican DemocratRepublican DemocratRepublican Change/Middle Class No Blame Game/ 1 st Term Crisis Change/American Jobs Middle Class/ American Jobs
Top frameworks minimize damage on has the right approach to spending and deficits Now for something different. For the following issues, overall do you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with each issue has the right approach to spending and deficits? Dems much better Reps much better +11 +9 +14 +16 46 39 39 42 28 30 28 30 11 23 26 22 15 13 14 29 DemocratRepublican DemocratRepublican DemocratRepublican DemocratRepublican Change/Middle Class No Blame Game/ 1 st Term Crisis Change/American Jobs Middle Class/ American Jobs
Top messages move which party best on economy to parity Now for something different. For the following issues, overall do you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with each issue the economy? Dems much better Reps much better +3 Even +8 +2 38 35 37 37 32 40 39 37 22 23 18 17 17 28 26 22 DemocratRepublican DemocratRepublican DemocratRepublican DemocratRepublican Change/Middle Class No Blame Game/ 1 st Term Crisis Change/American Jobs Middle Class/ American Jobs
No blame on crisis; crisis 1 st and economic change 2 nd dominant on bringing the right kind of change Now for something different. For the following issues, overall do you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with each issue bringing the right kind of change? Dems much better Reps much better +1 +7 +4 +9 32 33 38 31 37 33 32 41 15 18 19 20 21 22 16 17 DemocratRepublican DemocratRepublican DemocratRepublican DemocratRepublican Change/Middle Class No Blame Game/ 1 st Term Crisis Change/American Jobs Middle Class/ American Jobs
Top frameworks give president high standing on having a hopeful vision Below is a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well, or not well at all offers a hopeful vision of the future. Very well Not well at all +6 +8 +1 +6 52 53 46 45 49 50 51 45 31 23 24 35 33 32 20 22 Total Well Total Not Well Total Well Total Not Well Total Well Total Not Well Total Well Total Not Well Change/Middle Class No Blame Game/ 1 st Term Crisis Change/American Jobs Middle Class/ American Jobs
Top messages increase sense that president is. on your side Below is a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well, or not well at all on your side. Very well Not well at all +5 +3 +17 +13 51 46 47 50 57 40 41 54 34 35 40 36 18 18 15 15 Total Well Total Not Well Total Well Total Not Well Total Well Total Not Well Total Well Total Not Well Change/Middle Class No Blame Game/ 1 st Term Crisis Change/American Jobs Middle Class/ American Jobs
Top messages elevate sense that trust president to make the right choices for the country Below is a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well, or not well at all trust to make the right choices for the country. Very well Not well at all +9 +5 +15 +15 44 53 51 46 56 56 41 41 34 38 39 37 14 18 15 15 Total Well Total Not Well Total Well Total Not Well Total Well Total Not Well Total Well Total Not Well Change/Middle Class No Blame Game/ 1 st Term Crisis Change/American Jobs Middle Class/ American Jobs
The strongest economic message frameworks can produce important change
Within top economic frameworks: major potential shift on party better on economy Now for something different. For the following issues, overall do you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with each issue the economy? Dems much better Reps much better +9 46 +3 Even 37 35 38 37 37 27 22 23 19 18 17 Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans June National Survey Change/ Middle Class Note: June data is from the Democracy Corps National poll, June 18-21, 2011. No Blame Game/1 st Term Crisis
Within top economic frameworks: potential shift on congressional vote I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the elections for Congress in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE or REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE?* Democrats Republicans +3 +1 +1 44 47 42 41 42 41 Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans June National Survey Change/ Middle Class Note: June data is from the Democracy Corps National survey, June 18-21, 2011. No Blame Game/1 st Term Crisis
Within top economic frameworks: biggest potential shift in presidential contest I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? Obama Romney +2 +12 +6 47 45 44 32 41 35 Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney June National Survey Change/ Middle Class Note: June data is from the Democracy Corps National poll, June 18-21, 2011. No Blame Game/1 st Term Crisis
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