An Election Postmortem & A Look Ahead Moll Strategies--Dan Moll What Happened on Election Day 139 Million Voters Cast Ballots (47M voted early 33%) 58% eligible voters Contrary to earlier stories of low turnout actually similar % to 2012 Clinton received 2.9 million more votes nationwide, 2.1% of the total cast Electoral Votes Trump = 306 Clinton = 232 Trump is 5 th person in history to become President despite losing the popular vote (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, 2016) 1
Election Day (continued) Of the 700 counties that supported Obama twice, one-third flipped to support Trump Trump also won 194 of the 207 counties that supported Obama in either 2008 or 2012 The Obama to Trump counties were critical in delivering electoral victories for Trump Many of them fall in states that supported Obama in 2012 but Trump in 2016 The flipped states accounted for 85 electoral votes Impact on House of Representatives Only 648 Days Until Midterm Elections House of Representatives D gain + 6 Democrats now out of power 18 years of last 22 years 23 Republicans in seats Clinton carried 12 Democrats in seats Trump carried Only 15 of 241 Republicans won by less than 10% Only 17 of 194 Democrats won by less than 10% Gerrymandering Limits Easy Shift 2
Impact on Senate D gain +2 (New Hampshire & Illinois) D Need +3 for control 2018 Field of Battle Favors GOP Democrats Defending 25 Seats (10 won by Trump) Republicans Defending 8 Seats (1 won by Clinton) GOP in the Age of Obama Trump Enters White House After 8 Years of Republican Gains GOP Gained 30% State Legislators GOP Gained 30% Senators GOP Gained 35% Congressman GOP Gained 57 % Governors 3
Key Committees House of Representatives Oversight & Government Reform Chair Jason Chaffetz (Utah) Dem Elijah Cummings (Maryland) Ways & Means Chair Kevin Brady (Texas) Dem Richard Neal (Massachusetts) Appropriations Chair Rodney Frelinghuysen (New Jersey) Dem Nita Lowey (New York) Key Committees (continued) Senate Homeland Security Governmental Affairs Chair Ron Johnson (Wisconsin) Dem Claire McCaskill (Missouri) Finance Chair Orrin Hatch (Utah) Dem Ron Wyden (Oregon) Appropriations Chair Thad Cochran (Mississippi) Dem Pat Leahy (Vermont) 4
Voting Pattern by Age Millennials, Generation Xers, Baby Boomers & the Silent Generation Millennials (18 to 29) supported Clinton 55% to 37% Generation Xers (30 to 44) supported Clinton 50% to 42% Baby Boomers (45 to 64) supported Trump 53% to 44% 65+ supported Trump 53% to 45% Gender Women (52% of electoral population) supported Clinton 54% to 42% Similar to the Democratic advantage of Obama in 2012 55% to 43% Men supported Trump 53% to 41% Trump +12 point gender gap is similar to the 11 point margin Bush achieved in 2000 & 2004 On Surface no overwhelming showing here. Slightly more than half of men supported Trump and slightly more than half of women supported Clinton But 5
Race (White) White voters preferred Trump by 21% over Clinton Trump won white voters by a margin nearly identical to Romney Romney won 20% in 2012 Trump s margin among whites w/out college degrees was the largest since 1980 Trump achieved a 39% margin over Clinton of whites w/out college degrees Race (Hispanic) Latinos account for 11% of all votes cast Latinos Supported Clinton be more than 2 to 1 65% Clinton 29% Trump 2012 71% Obama 27% Romney Despite Trump comments no Latino surge 6
Race (African American) Clinton received 88% of Black vote down 5% from Obama s total in 2012 Trump received 8% of the Black vote 1% more than Romney received in 2012 GOP % of Black vote virtually same 2008/12/16 Significance is the erosion of support for Democratic nominee Education High School Degree preferred Trump 51% to 45% Some College preferred Trump 52% to 43% College Grads supported Clinton 49% to 45% Post-College supported Clinton 58% to 37% Higher educated supported Clinton, less educated supported Trump 7
Final Thoughts Post-election analysis of voting patterns showed many of the predictions were off the mark Clinton under-performed in some of the traditional core Democratic voting blocs particularly African- Americans and blue collar whites Trump over-performed with white voters without college degrees POTUS Short window to accomplish major initiatives An Election Postmortem & A Look Ahead Moll Strategies--Dan Moll 8