The Malady of Democratic States: Isolationism in Mid-Century Thinking about Public Opinion Katja B. Kleinberg Benjamin O. Fordham Binghamton University (SUNY)
What is Isolationism? Principled opposition to involvement in world affairs Part of a syndrome of problems arising from ignorance and apathy
Underreaction and Overreaction
Hypotheses about Underreaction and Overreaction During periods of relative international stability, less informed respondents should support costly policy actions less than more informed respondents do. During periods of acute crisis, less informed respondents should support costly policy actions more than more informed respondents do. During periods of acute crisis, less informed respondents should support extreme policy options more than more informed respondents do.
Three Periods of Mobilization World War II Cold War The aftermath of 9/11 Before 9/11, less-informed respondents should be less supportive of costly action to deal with terrorism After 9/11, less-informed respondents should be more supportive of policies proposed to deal with terrorism After 9/11, less-informed respondents should be more willing to endorse extreme actions
Pre-9/11: Perception of Terrorism And now a few more items... Are international terrorists a major threat, a minor threat, or not a threat at all? Not a threat at all: 4% Minor threat: 31% Major threat: 64% Don t know: 2%
Post-9/11: Responses to Terrorism Do you think the United States should keep military forces in Afghanistan in order to maintain civil order there, or should the United States not do this? Yes: 68% No: 26% Don t know: 6%
Post-9/11: Extreme Options As I read from a list tell me how important each of the following is as a way to reduce terrorism in the future...take military action to wipe out facilities of countries attempting to build nuclear weapons. Very important: 51% Fairly important: 29% Not too important: 10% Not at all important: 5% Don t know: 5%
0.8 Information and Concerns about Terrorism, 1999 0.7 0.6 0.5 Uninformed Informed 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Don't know Not a threat at all Minor threat Major threat And now a few more items... Are international terrorists a major threat, a minor threat, or not a threat at all?
0.8 Information and Policies to Counter Terrorism, 2002 0.7 0.6 0.5 Uninformed Informed 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Yes No Don't know Do you think the United States should keep military forces in Afghanistan in order to maintain civil order there, or should the United States not do this?
0.6 Information and Extreme Responses to Terrorism, 2002 0.5 Uninformed Informed 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Very important Fairly important Not too important Not at all important Don't know As I read from a list tell me how important each of the following is as a way to reduce terrorism in the future...take military action to wipe out facilities of countries attempting to build nuclear weapons.
Conclusion Isolationism is neither a principled opinion nor capricious vacillation One of several patterns of public opinion identified by older writers Information is more than a mediating variable
SUPPLEMENTAL SLIDES
Three Periods of Mobilization World War II Before Pearl Harbor, less-informed respondents should be less supportive of costly action to deal with Germany and Japan After Pearl Harbor, less-informed respondents should be more supportive of wartime policies, such as unconditional surrender After Pearl Harbor, less-informed respondents should be more willing to endorse extreme policy options Cold War The aftermath of 9/11
Pre-Pearl Harbor: Aid to Britain If the British are unable to pay cash for war materials bought in this country, should our government lend war materials to the British, to be paid back in the same materials or other goods after the war is over? No: 19% Qualified answer: 5% Yes: 65% Give, don t lend (volunteered): 4% Don t know: 7%
Pre-Pearl Harbor: Defeat Germany or Stay Out? Which of these two do you think is more important that this country keep out of war, or that Germany be defeated, even at the risk of our getting into the war? Keep out of war: 37% Defeat Germany even at the risk of war: 56% Don t know: 7%
Information and Responses to January 1941 Survey Questions 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Uninformed Informed 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Don't know No Qualified answer Yes Gift, not loan Don't know Keep out of war Defeat Germany Lend money to British to finance purchases of U.S. war material? Which of these is more important--keeping out of war, or defeating Germany even at the risk of war?
Post-Pearl Harbor: Support for War If Hitler offered peace now to all countries on the basis of not going farther, but of leaving matters as they are now, would you favor or oppose such a peace? Favor: 10% Oppose: 85% Don t know: 6%
Post-Pearl Harbor: Extreme Options If we win the war, how do you think we should treat the people in Germany? [Open-ended punishment responses included "put them in their place," "treat them harshly," "Lock them up," "kill them," etc.]. Punish them [Open-ended punishment responses included "put them in their place," "treat them harshly," "Lock them up," "kill them," etc.]: 12% Non-punishment responses: 74% Don t know: 14%
1 Information and Responses to March 1942 Survey Questions 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Uninformed Informed 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Don't know Oppose Favor Don't know Do not punish Punish Accept peace offer from Hitler? Punish the German people after the war?