Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Wednesday, 21, tact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769 (cell); 732-263-5858 (office) pdmurray@monmouth.edu Follow on Twitter: @PollsterPatrick NEW HAMPSHIRE: CLINTON LEADS TRUMP; SENATE RACE NECK AND NECK ublican leads for Governor West Long Branch, NJ New Hampshire may have been the scene of a big win for Donald Trump and an embarrassing loss for Hillary Clinton in the primaries, but the table appears to have been turned for the general election. Clinton has a 9 point lead in the smallest of the battleground states, according to the Monmouth University Poll. ocrats may also be within reach of picking up the GOP-held Senate seat here in a race that is basically tied at this point. ublicans are in a slightly better position for taking over the governorship. Among Granite State voters likely to participate in November s presidential election, 4 support Clinton and 3 back Trump. Another 1 intend to vote for ertarian Gary Johnson, support Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and are currently undecided. Clinton has the support of 9 of self-identified ocrats while Trump gets the backing of 8 of ublicans. Clinton edges Trump among the state s sizable bloc of independents by 4 to 3. Clinton has the advantage among voters under 50 years old (4 to 3) as well as those age 50 and older (4 to 4). Clinton leads among women (5 to 3) and voters with a college degree (5 to 3). Trump leads among men (4 to 3) and voters without a college education (4 to 4). How fortunes have changed for Clinton and Trump in New Hampshire compared to when this campaign started in February, said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. New Hampshire voters have a more negative view of Trump than Clinton. Only 3 have a favorable opinion of the ublican nominee while 6 hold an unfavorable view of him. Somewhat more voters (3) have a favorable opinion of the ocratic nominee while 5 hold an unfavorable 1
Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/21/16 view of her. Clinton also has the edge on handling the economy and jobs 5 of voters trust her more to deal with this issue while 4 prefer Trump. Most Granite State voters (8) have heard about Trump s recent admission that Barack Obama was born in the United States, but they doubt the GOP nominee s sincerity. Only 2 think that Trump actually believes Obama is a natural born citizen, while 5 say Trump only made the statement for political reasons. Trump also implicated Hillary Clinton in starting the birther controversy back in 2008. A majority of New Hampshire voters (5) do not believe she had a role in it, while just 2 say she did. While most voters (8) say this recent flap will have no impact on their vote, 1 say Trump s statement makes them less likely to vote for him and just say it makes them more likely. Turning to the state s U.S. Senate race, incumbent Kelly Ayotte is in a neck-and-neck race with current governor Maggie Hassan. Currently, ublican Ayotte has 4 support and ocrat Hassan has 4, with ertarian Brian Chabot getting and another who are undecided. This race is a key contest in the battle for control of the Senate. More voters have a favorable (4) rather than unfavorable (3) opinion of Ayotte. The results are similar for Hassan at 4 favorable and 2 unfavorable. Hassan has a better job performance rating, although it is for a different job than the one she is currently seeking. Fully 6 of New Hampshire voters approve of the job the ocrat is currently doing as their governor while only 3 disapprove. A somewhat smaller number of voters (5) approve of the job the ublican is currently doing as their U.S. Senator while 3 disapprove. The challenger is finding that high ratings in her current job as governor do not give her an automatic advantage over the incumbent senator, said Murray. The GOP s prospects are slightly better in the race to succeed Hassan in the State House. Currently, Chris Sununu, the son of a former governor, holds a 4 to 4 lead over his fellow Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern. Another of New Hampshire voters support ertarian Max Abramson and are undecided. The ublican, with the well-known last name, is somewhat more familiar to voters than his ocratic opponent. Currently, 3 of voters have a favorable opinion of Sununu, 2 hold an unfavorable view, and 4 have no opinion of him. Fewer voters hold either a favorable (2) or unfavorable () view of Van Ostern, while 6 have no set opinion of him. The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from 17 to 20, with 400 New Hampshire residents likely to vote in the November election. This sample has a margin of error of +4.9 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. 2
Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/21/16 QUESTIONS AND RESULTS (* Some columns may not add to 10 due to rounding.) 1/2. If the election for President was today, would you vote for Donald Trump the ublican, Hillary Clinton the ocrat, Gary Johnson the ertarian, or Jill Stein of the Green Party? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED] (with leaners) Donald Trump 3 Hillary Clinton 4 Gary Johnson 1 Jill Stein (VOL) Other candidate < (VOL) Undecided 3. If the election for U.S. Senate was today, would you vote for Kelly Ayotte the ublican, Maggie Hassan the ocrat, or Brian Chabot the ertarian? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward Kelly Ayotte or Maggie Hassan?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED] (with leaners) Kelly Ayotte 4 Maggie Hassan 4 Brian Chabot (VOL) Other candidate < (VOL) Undecided 4. If the election for governor was today, would you vote for Chris Sununu the ublican, Colin Van Ostern the ocrat, or Max Abramson the ertarian? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward Chris Sununu or Colin Van Ostern?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED] (with leaners) Chris Sununu 4 Colin Van Ostern 4 Max Abramson (VOL) Other candidate < (VOL) Undecided Regardless of who you may support for president [QUESTIONS 5 & 6 WERE ROTATED] 5. Is your general impression of Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 3 Unfavorable 6 No opinion 3
Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/21/16 6. Is your general impression of Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her? Favorable 3 Unfavorable 5 No opinion 7. Who do you trust more to handle the economy and jobs Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? [NAMES WERE ROTATED] Trump 4 Clinton 5 (VOL) Neither (VOL) Don t know Turning to the Senate race [QUESTIONS 8 & 9 WERE ROTATED] 8. Is your general impression of Kelly Ayotte favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her? Favorable 4 Unfavorable 3 No opinion 2 9. Is your general impression of Maggie Hassan favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her? Favorable 4 Unfavorable 2 No opinion 2 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kelly Ayotte is doing as U.S. senator? Approve 5 Disapprove 3 (VOL) No opinion 1 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Maggie Hassan is doing as governor? Approve 6 Disapprove 3 (VOL) No opinion 2
Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/21/16 Turning to the govenor s race [QUESTIONS 12 & 13 WERE ROTATED] 12. Is your general impression of Chris Sununu favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 3 Unfavorable 2 No opinion 4 13. Is your general impression of Colin Van Ostern favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 2 Unfavorable No opinion 6 14. Have you read or heard about Donald Trump's recent admission that Barack Obama was definitely born in the United States, or have you not heard about this? Yes 8 No 1 (VOL) Don t know 15. Trump had expressed doubt about Obama's country of birth for a number of years. Do you think Trump really believes Obama was born in the U.S. or did he just say that now for political reasons? Really believes 2 For political reasons 5 (VOL) Both (VOL) Don t know 1 16. In his statement, Trump also claimed Hillary Clinton and her campaign started the Obama birther controversy during the 2008 election. Do you believe or not believe that Clinton played a part in spreading the Obama birther story? Believe 2 Do not believe 5 (VOL) Don t know 1 17. Does his recent statement on this issue make you more likely or less likely to support Trump, or does it have no impact on your vote? More likely Less likely 1 No impact 8 (VOL) Don t know 3
Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/21/16 METHODOLOGY The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from 17 to 20, with a random sample of 400 likely New Hampshire voters. Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 350 drawn from a list of registered voters (200 landline / 150 cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 50 cell phone interviews. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age, gender, race and partisanship based on voter list and U.S. Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 9 confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Self-orted 2 ublican 5 ependent 2 ocrat 4 Male 5 Female 1 18-34 2 35-49 3 50-64 2 65+ 9 White Black Hispanic Other MARGIN OF ERROR unweighted sample moe (+/-) LIKELY VOTER Total 400 4. SELF-REPORTED ublican 98 9. ependent 201 6. ocrat 98 9. IDEOLOGY servative 114 9. erate 178 7. eral 99 9. Male 193 7. Female 207 6. AGE 18-49 181 7. 50+ 218 6. No 182 7. Yes 212 6. 112 9. 108 9. 134 8. ### 4
Monmouth University Poll -- NEW HAMPSHIRE -- 9/21/16 Q1-2. PREZ VOTE WITH LEANERS Trump Clinton Johnson Stein [VOL] Other cand Undecided 3 4 1 8 3 4 1 9 7 3 1 5 8 1 4 3 1 3 5 3 4 1 Q1-2. PREZ VOTE WITH LEANERS Trump Clinton Johnson Stein [VOL] Other cand Undecided 4 4 4 4 3 5 1 3 4 4 4 3 5 1 Q3. SEN VOTE WITH LEANERS Ayotte Hassan Chabot Other cand Undecided 4 4 8 4 4 9 7 4 1 1 4 8 5 3 3 5 4 4 Q3. SEN VOTE WITH LEANERS Ayotte Hassan Chabot Other cand Undecided 5 4 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 Page 1
Monmouth University Poll -- NEW HAMPSHIRE -- 9/21/16 Q4. GOV VOTE WITH LEANERS Sununu Van Ostern Abramson Other cand Undecided 4 4 8 5 3 1 8 7 4 2 1 4 7 1 5 3 4 5 4 4 Q4. GOV VOTE WITH LEANERS Sununu Van Ostern Abramson Other cand Undecided 5 4 5 3 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 Q5. Is your general impression of Favorable 3 7 2 6 2 3 2 2 Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 6 2 6 9 2 6 9 5 6 6 opinion of him? No opinion 1 1 Q5. Is your general impression of Favorable 3 3 2 3 3 2 Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 6 5 7 6 5 7 opinion of him? No opinion 1 Q6. Is your general impression of Favorable 3 2 8 1 3 6 2 4 3 Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 5 9 6 1 8 5 2 6 4 5 opinion of her? No opinion 1 1 Page 2
Monmouth University Poll -- NEW HAMPSHIRE -- 9/21/16 Q6. Is your general impression of Favorable 3 3 4 4 3 4 Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 5 6 5 5 6 5 opinion of her? No opinion 1 Q7. Who do you trust more to handle the economy and jobs - Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? Trump Clinton [VOL] Neither [VOL] Dont know_refused 4 5 8 1 4 4 1 9 7 3 1 5 8 Male Female 5 3 4 6 Q7. Who do you trust more to handle the economy and jobs - Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? Trump Clinton [VOL] Neither [VOL] Dont know_refused 18-49 4 5 4 5 5 4 3 5 4 5 4 4 3 5 Q8. Is your general impression of Favorable 4 8 4 1 7 5 1 5 4 4 Kelly Ayotte favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 3 2 6 1 2 6 2 3 3 opinion of her? No opinion 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 Q8. Is your general impression of Favorable 5 4 4 4 4 5 Kelly Ayotte favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 3 3 3 3 3 3 opinion of her? No opinion 1 2 1 2 2 1 Page 3
Monmouth University Poll -- NEW HAMPSHIRE -- 9/21/16 Q9. Is your general impression of Favorable 4 1 4 8 2 4 7 4 5 4 Maggie Hassan favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 2 5 2 4 2 3 2 2 opinion of her? No opinion 2 3 3 1 3 2 1 2 2 2 Q9. Is your general impression of Favorable 4 3 5 4 4 4 Maggie Hassan favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 2 3 2 2 2 2 opinion of her? No opinion 2 3 2 2 3 2 Q10. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kelly Ayotte is doing as U.S. senator? Approve Disapprove [VOL] Neither_No opinion_dont Know_Refused 5 3 1 8 5 3 1 1 7 1 7 5 1 2 3 6 1 1 Male Female 5 4 3 4 1 Q10. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kelly Ayotte is doing as U.S. senator? Approve Disapprove [VOL] Neither_No opinion_dont Know_Refused 18-49 4 3 1 5 3 5 3 1 5 3 1 5 4 5 3 1 5 3 1 Q11. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Maggie Hassan is doing as governor? Approve Disapprove [VOL] Neither_No opinion_dont Know_Refused 6 3 2 6 1 5 3 9 3 6 8 5 2 1 1 Male Female 5 6 3 2 1 Q11. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Maggie Hassan is doing as governor? Approve Disapprove [VOL] Neither_No opinion_dont Know_Refused 18-49 6 2 1 5 3 5 3 1 6 2 5 3 6 2 1 6 2 1 Page 4
Monmouth University Poll -- NEW HAMPSHIRE -- 9/21/16 Q12. Is your general impression Favorable 3 6 3 1 5 3 1 4 3 3 of Chris Sununu favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 2 1 4 1 1 3 1 2 1 opinion of him? No opinion 4 3 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 Q12. Is your general impression Favorable 4 3 3 3 3 3 of Chris Sununu favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 2 2 2 2 1 2 opinion of him? No opinion 3 4 3 4 4 3 Q13. Is your general impression Favorable 2 2 5 1 2 5 1 3 2 of Colin Van Ostern favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 1 opinion of him? No opinion 6 8 6 4 7 6 4 7 5 6 Q13. Is your general impression Favorable 3 2 3 2 2 3 of Colin Van Ostern favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable opinion of him? No opinion 6 7 6 6 6 6 Q14. Have you read or heard about Donald Trumps recent admission that Barack Obama was definitely born in the United States, or have you not heard about this? Yes No [VOL] DK_REF 8 1 8 1 8 1 9 1 8 8 8 1 1 1 8 1 8 1 8 1 Q14. Have you read or heard about Donald Trumps recent admission that Barack Obama was definitely born in the United States, or have you not heard about this? Yes No [VOL] DK_REF 9 8 1 8 1 8 1 8 1 8 1 Page 5
Monmouth University Poll -- NEW HAMPSHIRE -- 9/21/16 Q15. Trump had expressed doubt Really believes 2 3 2 1 3 3 1 3 2 2 about Obamas country of birth for a number of years. Do you think For political reasons 5 3 5 6 4 4 6 4 5 5 Trump really believes Obama was born in the U.S. or did he just say [VOL] Both that now for political reasons? [VOL] DK_REF 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 Q15. Trump had expressed doubt Really believes 3 2 2 1 3 3 about Obamas country of birth for a number of years. Do you think For political reasons 4 5 5 6 4 4 Trump really believes Obama was born in the U.S. or did he just say [VOL] Both that now for political reasons? [VOL] DK_REF 2 1 2 1 2 1 Q16. In his statement, Trump also claimed Hillary Clinton and her campaign started the Obama birther controversy during the 2008 election. Do you believe or not believe that Clinton played a part in spreading the Obama birther story? Believe Do not believe [VOL] DK_REF 2 5 1 4 2 2 3 4 2 8 5 2 1 2 5 7 1 1 1 3 4 1 2 6 1 3 5 1 Q16. In his statement, Trump also claimed Hillary Clinton and her campaign started the Obama birther controversy during the 2008 election. Do you believe or not believe that Clinton played a part in spreading the Obama birther story? Believe Do not believe [VOL] DK_REF 2 5 1 3 4 2 2 6 1 2 5 1 3 4 2 2 5 1 Page 6
Monmouth University Poll -- NEW HAMPSHIRE -- 9/21/16 Q17. Does his recent statement on this issue make you more likely or less likely to support Trump, or does it have no impact on your vote? More likely Less likely No impact [VOL] DK_REF 1 8 8 1 7 2 7 1 2 9 7 7 1 7 1 8 1 7 Q17. Does his recent statement on this issue make you more likely or less likely to support Trump, or does it have no impact on your vote? More likely Less likely No impact [VOL] DK_REF 1 8 1 8 1 7 1 7 1 8 1 8 Page 7