Employment in Europe 2008 Chapter 3: Geographical mobility in the context of EU enlargement
Contents Transitional arrangements on the free movement of workers How many have come and how many have left? Who are the movers? What have been the economic and labour market impacts? What have been some of the other impacts?
Transitional arrangements Free movement of workers a fundamental freedom under EU law, but transitional arrangements for EU-8 Member States and Bulgaria and Romania. Member States can restrict free movement of workers for up to 5 years from accession and an additional 2 years in case of serious disturbances of labour markets.
Foreign nationals 2003-2007 8.0 7.0 Foreign citizens from EU-15 EU-10 EU-2 (BG/RO) non-eu-27 countries 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 resident in EU-15 resident in EU-10 resident in EU-2 (BG/RO) Sources: Eurostat EU LFS, Eurostat population statistics, national data sources, DG Employment estimates.
Population share of recently arrived foreigners resident four years and less in other EU Member States 10 % of resident working age population 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 EU-15 EU-10 EU-2 Non-EU-27 citizens IE CY LU ES UK AT BE SE FR IT DK EL PT DE NL CZ FI HU SI Non-EU-27 citizens 1.9 4.4 0.9 2.7 1.8 1.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 EU-2 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 EU-10 5.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 EU-15 1.6 1.6 5.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 Sources: Eurostat EU LFS, annual data.. Notes: see chart 1, EiE 2008, chapter 3.
Nationality of recent intra-eu movers after 2003 Other EU citizens 18% LT 4% PL 25% IT 4% SK 4% BG 4% PT 4% FR 5% UK 6% DE 7% RO 19% Source: Eurostat, EU Labour Force Survey, annual data 2007. Note: Recent intra-eu movers defined as persons aged 15-64 resident four years or less in another EU Member State.
How many have left? Emigrants to other EU Member States relative to home population and by duration of stay in host country, 2007 (% of working age population of home country) 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 LT CY RO PL SK BG LV PT EE IE NL CZ BE DK HU AT EL SE UK DE FR FI IT ES More than 4 years 1.3 3.5 4.1 1.1 0.7 2.8 0.6 7.8 1.6 7.5 1.3 0.7 1.7 1.0 0.7 1.8 2.8 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 1.9 1.4 0.6 4 years and less 3.13.02.52.02.01.71.31.21.00.70.60.50.50.50.50.40.40.40.30.30.30.20.20.1 Source: Eurostat, EU Labour Force Survey, annual data 2007.
EU-8 inflows example UK 70 60 thousand pe rsons PL SK LT Other EU-8 50 40 30 20 10 0 2004 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Source: UK Home Office, Accession Monitoring Reports. Approved applicants to the workers registration scheme.
Characteristics of mobile workers 100% 90% total EU-15 population recent EU-10 movers recent EU-2 (BG/RO) movers 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Employed Unemployed Inactive Employee Selfemployed Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-54 55-64 Low Medium High Labour market status Prof. status Gender Age Educational attainment Source: Eurostat, EU Labour Force Survey, annual data 2007. Note: Recent intra-eu movers defined as persons aged 15-64 resident four years or less in another EU Member State.
Labour market impacts Range of recent studies finds that post enlargement intra- EU migration has had little or no negative impact on wages and employment of local workers and not led to serious labour market imbalances in receiving countries; moderate impacts also across different skill groups of workers; no substantial negative labour market impact in structurally weak regions as migrants tend to move into regions with higher wages and better job opportunities and not into regions with high unemployment.
Macroeconomic impacts Recent resarch also suggests that mobility from the EU-10/2 has had a clearly positive impact on economic growth in the EU; has helped to reduce inflationary pressures in most receiving countries; has had a neutral or positive impact on public finances and the welfare state at the national level.
Other impacts Brain drain and labour shortages: Emigration a significant factor, but other factors too High growth, convergence increased labour demand not matched by supply (demography, participation) Some social challenges: receiving countries: individual reports on pressures at local level (e.g. housing, health services, schools) sending countries: family cohesion and migrants children Need to be addressed, but doubtful if restrictions on labour market access are an adequate tool Restrictions may even aggravate some problems (e.g. undeclared work, exploitation of mobile workers)
Main conclusions East-West mobility flows moderate when put into perspective of overall size of labour markets and other migration flows. Practically all the available evidence suggests that post-enlargement intra-eu mobility has had no serious negative impact on wages and unemployment of local workers in the destination countries and that it has had a positive overall impact.
Thank you for your attention! For more information see: The impact of free movement of workers in the context of EU enlargement, COM(2008) 765. Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catid=508&langid=en Geographical labour mobility in the context of EU enlargement, in: Employment in Europe 2008 report (Chapter 3). Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catid=119&langid=en