January 28-1 July Nationwide Opinion Poll In the lead-up to Pakistan s General Election 218 1
About us Mission Statement Location and Contact details We seek to provide quality private polling services in Pakistan. Founded in 217, we have conducted several private polls for one of three major political parties, and one smaller party with representation in the outgoing parliament. We are located in I-8 Markaz Center in Islamabad. To contact us, please email our media coordinator at akbarb1996@gmail.com or use the Contact form on our website: https://roshanpakistanopinionpolling.w ordpress.com/contact/ 2
How we work Data collection Data analysis Sent to our client 5 day period maximum 1 to 2 days days Our hundreds of field workers in 12 out of 131 districts in Punjab, Sindh, KPK and Balochistan collect data from respondents Raw data is analyzed and based on our district by district results, we use a uniform swing method taking into 213 general elections results to calculate seat projections Our reports are sent directly to our clients so they can track on-the-ground opinion without a delay of more than a week 3
Methodology Survey period: June 28-1 July, 218 Face-to-face interviews of randomly selected registered voters Sample size: 3573 Margin of error: +/- 2% at 95% confidence interval Survey locations selected through random selection of polling stations in every district Male respondents interviewed by male field interviewees, vice versa for female respondents 4
Methodology Sample size only includes likely voters, with the first question asked of every respondent being: How likely are you to vote in the upcoming general election?. All respondents with at least a 5% chance of voting are included in the sample Kish and right hand methods used for household member selection and household selection, respectively 5
Demographics of our sample 6
Demographics: Gender-wise composition of respondents 7
Demographics: Education-wise composition of respondents 8
Demographics: Age-wise composition of respondents 9
Demographics: Rural/Urban composition 1
Demographics: respondents by religious sect/religion 11
Demographics: respondents by family income 12
Demographics: respondents by family income 13
Demographics: respondents by province 14
Overall/ province Voting Intention 15
Nationwide Voting Intention 16
Punjab Voting Intention 17
Sindh Voting Intention 18
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Voting Intention 19
Baluchistan Voting Intention 2
Overall/provinc e Voting Intention PTI reaches 3% threshold for the first time since we began polling in nationwide voting intention Punjab a neck-and-neck contest PPP likely to continue to dominate Sindh PTI likely to continue to dominate KPK Baluchistan to repeat a split vote as is typical 21
Region-wise voting intention 22
Northwest Punjab Voting Intention 23
South Punjab Voting Intention 24
Central Punjab Voting Intention 25
Interior Sindh Voting Intention 26
Urban Sindh Voting Intention 27
Region-wise Voting Intention Expect PTI to do well in South Punjab and Northwest Punjab PML(N) dominant in Central Punjab PPP likely to sweep Interior Sindh as GDA fails to put up a strong contest MQM(P) ahead in Urban Sindh but gains likely for PTI and PPP 28
Voting Intention in major districts/urban areas 29
Note These results are based on a very small size of respondents drawn from within the sample The district-wise results ARE NOT based on separate samples 3
Lahore Voting Intention 31
Faisalabad Voting Intention 32
Rawalpindi Voting Intention 33
Karachi Voting Intention 34
Muzaffargarh Voting Intention 35
Multan Voting Intention 36
Peshawar Voting Intention 37
Gujranwala Voting Intention 38
Rahim Yar Khan Voting Intention 39
Demographics and influence on voting behavior 4
Gender and Voting Intention 41
Education and Voting Intention 42
Religion/Religious Sect and Voting Intention 43
Family Income and Voting Intention 44
Age and Voting Intention 45
Key points No substantial gender gap although PTI does better amongst men and PML(N) does better amongst women Higher education level and family income correlates with higher likeliness to vote for PTI, opposite for PML(N) PTI does better amongst younger voters 46
Responses to other questions 47
Likeliness to vote 48
Preferred Prime Minister 49
Most important issue for voters 5
Voters opinion on fairness of the election 51
Key points No substantial gender gap although PTI does better amongst men and PML(N) does better amongst women Higher education level and family income correlates with higher likeliness to vote for PTI, opposite for PML(N) PTI does better amongst younger voters 52
Other indicators and voting intention 53
Likeliness to vote and Voting Intention 54
Most important issue and Voting Intention 55
Most important issue and Voting Intention 56
Key points Enthusiasm gap could detriment PTI s chances, PML(N) supporters more enthusiastic PML(N) does better among voters worried about inflation, PTI among voters worried about corruption PML(N) supporters worried about fairness of election, PTI supporters less worried 57
Seat Projections 58
How we come up with seat projections? A uniform swing method is used to translate opinion polls into seats in a first past the post system Using district-by-district voting intention, we compare it to the results of previous elections, and expecting a uniform swing across all seats, predict how many seats each party can win Not an entirely accurate system for seat projections given substantial fluctuations in swing in Pakistani elections as candidates play a huge role instead of parties in most constituencies 59
Seat Projections Detailed Punjab Sindh KPK Balochistan ICT Total PML(N) 68 2 1 71 PTI 58 3 29 1 2 93 PPP 4 4 1 1 46 MQM(P) 13 13 MMA 7 4 11 ANP 2 2 GDA 4 4 PSP 1 1 TLP BAP 5 5 11 1 5 26 Other/Indep. 6
Seat Projections 61