Bayt.com Middle East Consumer Confidence Index September 2013
Section 1 PROJECT BACKGROUND
Objective To understand perceptions and attitudes of Middle Eastern consumers regarding the economy of their countries, their personal financial and job situation, their likelihood to purchase and invest and the employment market in general.
Project Background Consumer confidence is a measure of the economic well-being of a country. It is a reflection of consumer satisfaction levels and expectations based on various factors in the economy - inflation, stock market performance, job opportunities/salary structures, unemployment, investment avenues/returns, business growth, state economic policies, infrastructure, cost of living, interest rates, exchange rates etc. Such consumer satisfaction levels and expectations will have an effect on economic variables. For example, if consumers are positive about the economy and have disposable income levels that are perceived as sufficient, they will tend to spend more on consumer goods. This in turn will drive business dependent on consumer spending, thereby creating further economic growth. On the other hand, a pessimistic view of the economy would cause consumers to rein in their spending, creating a spending recession which could effectively cause business losses/ economic downturn.
Project Background Similarly, if employable adults are optimistic about job prospects and opportunities, job security, have healthy salary expectations and are hopeful about their career growth and development, it will be reflected in their attitudes towards work and the economy as a whole as well as their spending behaviors Therefore, following trends in consumer and employee expectations could help forecast economic variables This information is useful for professionals, manufacturers/business people, recruitment consultants/agencies, economists and the general public
Section 2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Sample Definition Age and Gender: Adult males and females Aged 18 plus years Nationalities: GCC Arabs, North Africans, Levant, Western Expats & Asians Country of Residence GCC: UAE, KSA, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain Levant: Lebanon, Syria, Jordan North Africa: Egypt, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia Data Collection All data was collected online. Fieldwork was done between 28 th July and 15 th August 2013. The total number of respondents achieved was 6,585.
Section 3 RESEARCH FINDINGS
Average of Past Indices : 07 April 12 October Algeria Egypt Kuwait Lebanon Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Consumer Expectancy Index (CEI) 92.0 98.2 90.7 103.7 91.9 89.4 88.5 Propensity to Consume (PCI) 81.2 81.0 81.4 109.3 81.6 83.0 86.7 Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 89.6 89.3 86.9 107.1 86.9 85.8 85.0 Employee Confidence Index (ECI) 89.1 89.1 84.5 99.5 84.8 84.3 80.3
Base Period Values March 2013 Total Algeria Bahrain Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebano n Morocc o Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Tunisia UAE Base: 16379 992 120 5484 1700 457 506 1002 220 509 2730 252 431 1976 Current Economic Scenario Expected Economic Scenario 81.14 111.14 92.08 56.35 51.21 102.52 54.15 83.73 115.45 117.49 112.91 24.01 66.36 114.07 89.19 98.49 101.11 77.27 66.41 104.74 67.33 93.31 111.36 116.11 103.71 43.39 88.55 112.90 Employee Outlook 115.50 123.41 122.96 102.88 97.40 122.90 101.43 113.26 140.61 140.93 131.06 69.21 111.53 128.61 Overall Consumer Confidence 285.83 333.04 316.15 236.50 215.02 330.16 222.90 290.31 367.43 374.52 347.69 136.60 266.44 355.58
Current Period Values September 2013 Total Algeria Bahrain Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebano n Morocc o Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Tunisia UAE Base: 6585 645 78 1871 669 151 210 426 141 183 1097 145 252 717 Current Economic Scenario Expected Economic Scenario 88.47 111.78 110.90 73.81 54.04 103.64 57.86 92.37 123.05 122.40 110.16 31.72 62.70 110.74 141.50 142.79 138.46 141.71 120.78 153.20 116.67 142.41 156.97 159.38 149.92 97.24 126.46 157.51 Employee Outlook 117.90 123.03 116.80 113.03 97.50 127.50 96.10 119.04 144.55 142.29 126.96 65.12 113.07 128.49 Overall Consumer Confidence 347.87 377.60 366.16 328.54 272.31 384.34 270.63 353.82 424.57 424.08 387.04 194.08 302.22 396.74
Overall Indices Total Algeria Bahrain Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebano n Morocc o Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Tunisia UAE Current Economic Scenario (CES) Expected Economic Scenario (EES) 109.03 100.58 120.43 130.99 105.53 101.10 106.85 110.32 106.58 104.19 97.57 132.14 94.49 97.08 158.65 144.98 136.94 183.38 181.86 146.27 173.29 152.61 140.96 137.27 144.56 224.13 142.80 139.51 Employee Outlook (ECI) Overall Consumer Confidence (CCI) 102.08 99.69 94.99 109.87 100.10 103.74 94.75 105.10 102.80 100.97 96.87 94.09 101.38 99.91 121.70 113.38 115.82 138.92 126.65 116.41 121.41 121.88 115.55 113.23 111.32 142.08 113.43 111.57
Section 3a PERSONAL ECONOMIC SITUATION
Summary 43% of the total respondents claim their personal financial situation is the same as 6 months ago. 29% from Oman and 26% from KSA claim their personal financial situation is better than what it was 6 months ago. 63% from Syria claim their personal financial situation has worsened. High levels of optimism can be seen for the future across countries; especially the GCC region where 46% of the respondents expect their personal financial situation to improve in the next 6 months. On the other hand 46% from Syria expect their situation to worsen in the coming months. When asked about the expected change in Cost of Living, 71% say they expect it to increase in the next 6 months. Higher proportion of those from KSA (76%) and UAE (73%) expect an increase. 52% of the total respondents state their savings have decreased in comparison to last year. With regards to investment in vehicle and property, 34% claim they plan to buy a vehicle for personal use in the next 12 months and 21% intend to invest in property.
Personal Finance - Evaluation of Current Scenario Q. Compared to 6 months ago my or my family s current financial position is: Base: Total (6585)
Personal Finance Expectations for the Future Q. In comparison to the current period, in the next 6 months I expect my or my family s financial position to: Base: Total (6585)
Cost of Living Total Algeria Bahrain Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Tunisia UAE Base: 6585 645 78 1871 669 151 210 426 141 183 1097 145 252 717 Cost of living to increase 71 64 53 65 90 69 69 67 67 65 76 78 71 73 Cost of living to remain the same 16 19 27 18 6 22 21 16 19 22 15 10 15 18 Cost of living to decrease 4 4 9 5 1 5 3 5 3 3 3 4 7 5 Don t know can t say 9 12 12 12 3 4 7 13 11 10 7 8 7 5 Q. In the next 6 months, I expect Base: Total (6585)
Change in Savings Total Algeria Bahrain Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Tunisia UAE Base: 6585 645 78 1871 669 151 210 426 141 183 1097 145 252 717 Increased 16 17 26 14 9 15 14 18 26 20 20 8 14 16 Remained the same 26 29 41 25 18 31 24 25 36 36 28 8 26 31 Decreased 52 45 30 54 70 48 60 48 31 36 47 81 57 49 Don t know/can t say 6 9 4 6 3 7 2 9 8 8 5 3 4 4 Q. In comparison to last year, my savings have Base: Total (6585)
Investment in Vehicle Total Algeri a Bahrai n Egypt Jordan Kuwai Lebano t n Moroc co Oma n Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Tunisia UAE Don t know/can t Say Base(Plan to buy): Base: 6585 645 78 1871 669 151 210 426 141 183 1097 145 252 717 Yes 34 42 36 27 35 36 27 27 48 43 41 10 20 42 No 52 41 51 57 52 53 59 55 38 44 46 75 66 46 15 17 13 16 12 11 15 19 15 13 13 15 14 12 Type of Vehicle 2230 271 28 510 236 54 56 113 67 79 450 16 50 300 New 45 54 43 49 20 52 38 38 52 39 49 44 38 45 Used 48 40 57 44 70 35 50 58 45 52 41 50 50 49 Don't know/can't say 8 6-7 10 13 13 4 3 9 9 6 12 6 Q. Do you plan to buy a vehicle for personal use in the next 12 months? Q. Which of the following types of vehicle would it be? Base: Total (6585)
Investment in Property Total Algeria Bahrain Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Tunisia UAE Base: 6585 645 78 1871 669 151 210 426 141 183 1097 145 252 717 Yes 21 24 27 18 13 25 17 21 39 31 26 12 14 24 No 63 60 58 64 73 55 69 58 48 53 59 77 70 61 Don t know/can t Say 17 17 15 18 14 21 14 21 13 16 15 11 16 16 Q. Do you plan to invest in property within the next 12 months? Base: Total (6585)
Investment in Property Type of Property Total Algeria Bahrain Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocc o Oma n Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Tunisia UAE Kind of Property Base(Plan to buy): 1376 154 21 333 89 37 36 91 55 57 280 18 36 169 Apartment 50 58 14 62 54 35 69 58 29 47 38 56 47 46 Villa/ townhouse/ bungalow Commercial property (office/ shop etc.) 21 14 33 16 11 38 6 17 35 23 31 11 19 23 19 20 24 14 26 19 22 20 29 16 19 22 31 18 Other 10 8 29 8 9 8 3 6 7 14 11 11 3 14 Status of Property Base(Plan to buy): 1376 154 21 333 89 37 36 91 55 57 280 18 36 169 New 56 47 43 62 45 60 53 54 73 51 61 28 50 57 Pre-owned 28 38 43 26 36 16 19 31 15 25 22 56 33 31 Don't know/can't say 16 16 14 12 19 24 28 15 13 25 17 17 17 12 Q. What type of property are you planning to invest in? Q. Which of the following types of property would it be?
Consumer Goods Total Algeria Bahrain Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Tunisia UAE Base: 6585 645 78 1871 669 151 210 426 141 183 1097 145 252 717 Desktop or Laptop 28 31 24 30 24 24 20 34 27 34 25 17 28 26 Furniture 20 24 24 16 19 27 15 24 26 21 22 11 17 21 LCD or Plasma Television 18 22 21 17 15 21 11 20 21 20 19 8 17 18 Air Conditioner 16 23 14 18 13 15 11 12 17 15 17 7 15 8 Digital Camera 12 15 9 11 9 11 7 15 13 20 12 2 14 14 Refrigerator 11 13 21 8 8 15 8 14 12 14 14 6 12 11 Washing Machine 10 12 17 7 9 13 8 12 14 14 12 6 11 12 Normal or Digital Camcorder 7 11 6 8 6 3 3 9 7 7 7 4 6 5 Cooking Range 7 9 12 3 5 12 6 10 11 10 8 3 6 9 Vacuum Cleaner 6 6 13 5 6 11 5 6 9 7 8 3 3 7 Q. Lastly, could you please tell us which of the following are you planning to invest in within the next 6 months? (Please tick all that apply)
Section 3b COUNTRY S ECONOMIC SITUATION
Summary Respondents from the GCC continue to claim that their country s economy has had a positive change in the last 6 months. Those from Oman (43%), Qatar (43%) and UAE (39%) say that their country s economy is better than what it was 6 months ago. As the case with current economy, higher optimism is seen amongst those from the GCC in comparison to others. Those from Qatar (68%), UAE (62%) and Oman (61%) expect their country s economy to improve in the future. Present business conditions are seen as average to poor across the region with the exception of GCC where respondents express a positive opinion. However, respondents across the region are optimistic about the future. A third of the respondents claim there are very few jobs available across few industries in their country of residence. Higher job availability is reported by respondents from Qatar, UAE and Oman.
Country s Economy Evaluation of Current Scenario Q. Compared to 6 months earlier my country of residence's economy has: Base: Total (6585)
Country s Economy Expectations for the Future Q. In comparison to the current period, in the next 6 months I expect my country of residence's economy to : Base: Total (6585)
Present Business Conditions Q. Overall presently the business conditions are Base: Those employed(4323)
Expectations of Future Business Conditions Q. In a year s time I expect the business conditions to: Base: Those employed(4323)
Current Availability of Jobs Total Algeria Bahrain Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Tunisia UAE Base: 6585 645 78 1871 669 151 210 426 141 183 1097 145 252 717 There are plenty of jobs available across various industries There are plenty of jobs available but across a few industries only There are few jobs available across various industries There are few jobs available across few industries Don t know/can t say 13 10 15 6 6 21 5 7 24 27 24 2 3 26 17 19 12 14 11 20 8 19 25 30 23 6 12 22 26 32 28 26 33 26 28 29 20 20 19 21 34 24 32 27 30 41 42 22 49 32 18 8 19 57 44 18 12 13 15 14 8 12 11 13 13 15 14 13 7 10 Q. Which of the following best describes your opinion on the current availability of jobs in your country of residence: Base: Total (6585)
Future Availability of Jobs Total Algeria Bahrain Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Tunisia UAE Base: 6585 645 78 1871 669 151 210 426 141 183 1097 145 252 717 Increase 30 23 31 31 10 38 7 22 50 55 39 12 18 46 Remain the same 29 33 30 28 37 24 32 29 24 17 27 19 36 26 Decrease 19 15 22 17 37 16 41 20 9 7 15 46 23 9 Don t know/can t say 23 29 18 25 16 23 20 30 17 21 20 23 22 19 Q. In the next 6 months, the number of jobs available in my country of residence will Base: Total (6585)
Section 3c CURRENT JOB
Summary 30% of the respondents claim that the number of employees in their organization has increased in the last 6 months. Oman (49%), Qatar (44%) and KSA (43%) have the highest proportion of respondents citing an increase. With regards to future change in number of employees, 36% of the total respondents expect the number employees to increase. On an overall level respondents are satisfied with the following elements of their current job: Career growth opportunities Current compensation Non-monetary benefits Job security
Change in Number of Employees Q. In comparison to 6 months ago the number of employees in the organization where I work has: Base: Those employed(4323)
Expected Change in Number of Employees Q. In the next 6 months, I expect the number of employees in my organization to: Base: Those employed(4323)
Satisfaction Levels : Career growth opportunities Q. On an overall level how satisfied are you with the following attributes related to your job? Base: Those employed(4323)
Satisfaction Levels : Current compensation (salary & allowances) Q. On an overall level how satisfied are you with the following attributes related to your job? Base: Those employed(4323)
Satisfaction Levels : Non- monetary benefits Q. On an overall level how satisfied are you with the following attributes related to your job? Base: Those employed(4323)
Satisfaction Levels : Job Security Q. On an overall level how satisfied are you with the following attributes related to your job? Base: Those employed(4323)
Section 4 DEMOGRAPHICS
Respondent Profile 1/4 - Personal Base: Total (6585)
Respondent Profile 2/4 - Personal Base: Those Married/Divorced/Separated (2876) Base: Total (6585)
Respondent Profile 3/4 Professional Base: Total (6585) Base: Those employed(4323)
Respondent Profile 4/4 Professional Base: Those employed(4323)
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