CONSENSUS FORECAST BRUNEI 2 CALENDAR 4 NOTES 6 PUBLICATION DATE 24 March 215 FORECASTS COLLECTED 18 March - 23 March 215 INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 23 March 215 NEXT EDITION 28 Contributors ARNE POHLMAN Chief ARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of Research RICARDO ACEVES Senior RICARD TORNÉ Senior OLGA COSCODAN CARL KELLY TERESA KERSTING DIRINA MANÇELLARI ANGELA BOUZANIS CECILIA SIMKIEVICH MIRIAM DOWD Editor
Countries 1 GDP variation in % 15 Asia (ex Japan) World 1 5-5 2 25 21 215 2 Inflation in % Outlook moderates The economy of is expected to have posted a timid expansion in 214. While GDP shrank in Q1 as a result of extensive maintenance works in the dominant oil and gas sector, growth picked back up in Q2. However, the low global price for crude triggered another contraction in Q3. The hydrocarbon sector has dominated the economy for decades, accounting for more than 9% of exports and more than 5% of GDP. The government is making an effort to modernize the sector, to develop other industries and to attract foreign firms, but progress is slow. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts panelists revised down s economic outlook by.2 percentage points on expectations that the low oil price will drag on growth and on public accounts. They see the economy growing 2.1% in 215 and 3.1% in 216. 1 Asia (ex Japan) In January, inflation came in at.5% (December: 1.2% year-on-year). Panelists see inflation averaging.2% in 215 and.4% in 216. 5 Teresa Kersting -5 2 25 21 215 3 Current Account % of GDP 6 Asia (ex Japan) 4 2 2 25 21 215 Notes and sources Annual Data 213 214 215 216 Real Sector Population (million).4.4.4.4 GDP per capita (USD) 39,682 43,238 41,816 43,6 GDP (USD bn) 16.1 17.9 17.5 18.3 GDP (BND bn) 22.6 22.7 23.2 24. Economic Growth (Nom. GDP, ann. var. in %) -4.9.3 2.3 3.5 Economic Growth (GDP, ann. variation in %) -2.1.1 2.1 3.1 Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.8 3.5 3.2 3.1 Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 16.8 11.3 4. 6.1 Public Debt (% of GDP) 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop).4 -.2.2.4 Prime Lending Rate (%, eop) 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 Exchange Rate (BND per USD, eop) 1.26 1.33 1.32 1.3 Exchange Rate (BND per USD, aop) 1.25 1.27 1.32 1.31 External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 31.5 31.4 28. 27.4 Current Account Balance (USD bn) 5.1 5.6 4.9 5. Trade Balance (USD bn) 7.8 7.9 7.1 7.8 Exports (USD bn) 11.4 11.4 1.7 11.8 Imports (USD bn) 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.5 Exports (annual variation in %) -11.9 -.3-5.9 1. Imports (annual variation in %) 1.1-5.1-2.9 4.2 International Reserves (USD bn) 3.4 3. 3. 3.5 International Reserves (months of imports) 11.3 1.4 1.7 12.1 External Debt (USD bn).8.9.9 1. External Debt (% of GDP) 5.1 4.8 5.1 5.3 General: Long-term chart period from 2 to 216 unless otherwise stated. All data are from International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: IMF. 2 Inflation, annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in %. Source: WB. 3 Current Account Balance, % of GDP. Source: IMF. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 2
FOCUSECONOMICS Fact Sheet General Data Official name: Darussalam Capital: Bandar Seri Begawan (.3) Area (km2): 5765. Population (million, 214 est.):.4 Population density (per km2, 214): 72 Population growth rate (%, 214 est.): 1.7 Life expectancy (years, 214 est.): 76.8 Illiteracy rate (%, 211 est.): 4.6 Language: Malay, English Chinese Measures: Metric system Time: GMT+8 in the Region Population %-share in Asia Philippines 3.% Indonesia 7.6% India 37.8% 1.5%.1% China 41.1% Korea 8.% GDP %-share in Asia Indonesia 5.% India 12.3% 14.%.1% China 6.6% Economic Infrastructure Telecommunication (213) Telephones - main lines (per 1 inhabitants): 13.6 Telephones - mobile cellular (per 1 inhabit.): 112.2 Internet Users (per 1 inhabitants): 64.5 Broadband Subscriptions (per 1 inhabitants): 5.7 Energy (212) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 792 Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 152 Electricity Generation (billion kw-h): 3.7 Electricity Consumption (billion kw-h): 3.5 Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 159 Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 18. CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 8.7 Economic Structure 1 8 6 4 2 GDP by Sector share in % GDP by Expenditure share in % 25-7 28-1 211-13 Agriculture Manufacturing Industry Services 1 8 6 4 2 25-7 28-1 211-13 Net Exports Investment Government Consumption Private Consumption Transportation (213) Airports: 1 Roadways (km): 3,29 Chief Ports: Muara Trade Structure Primary markets share in % Political Data Head of State: Hassanal Bolkiah Monetary Authority, Chairman: Al-Muhtadee Billah Korea 15.1% India 5.8% -.1 Exports Japan 45.7% Malaysia 14.9% 1.3% Imports U.K. 2.6% Asia ex-japan 8.2% Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Agency Rating Outlook Moody s: - - S&P: - - Fitch Ratings: - - Strengths Political stability Institutions and regulatory FDI net inflows and intangible Oil and natural gas reserves Weaknesses Low gross capital formation Low expenditure on education and R&D Asia ex-japan 31.6% Australia 9.1% New Zealand 6.6% 4.1% Exports China 2.6% Primary products share in % 2.3% Imports Singapore 25.4% Agricultural products 14.2% Fuels and mining products 11.2% Fuels and mining products 95.9% Manufactur es 72.3% FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 3
Economic Release Calendar Calendar Date Country Event 24 March China March HSBC Manufacturing PMI 24 March Vietnam March Consumer Prices (**) 25 March Korea Q4 214 National Accounts 25 March Taiwan Central Bank Meeting (**) 26 March Korea March Consumer Confidence 26 March Philippines Central Bank Meeting 28 March Vietnam Q1 215 National Accounts (**) 28 March Vietnam March Industrial Production (**) 3 March Korea April Business Confidence 31 March Hong Kong February Retail Sales 31 March Korea February Industrial Production 31 March New Zealand March Business Confidence 31 March Thailand February Manufacturing Production 31 March Thailand February Merchandise Trade 1 April China March Manufacturing PMI 1 April Indonesia March HSBC Manufacturing PMI 1 April Indonesia March Consumer Prices 1 April Korea March HSBC Manufacturing PMI 1 April Korea March Consumer Prices 1 April Taiwan March HSBC Manufacturing PMI 1 April Vietnam March HSBC Manufacturing PMI 2 April Hong Kong March HSBC PMI 2 April India March HSBC Manufacturing PMI 2 April Malaysia March Consumer Prices 2 April Singapore March SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (**) 2 April Thailand March Consumer Prices 3 April Malaysia Febuary Merchandise Trade 6 April India March HSBC Services PMI 7 April Australia February Retail Sales 7 April Australia Central Bank Meeting 7 April India Central Bank Meeting 7 April Philippines March Consumer Prices 7 April Singapore Q1 215 National Accounts (**) 8 April Philippines February Exports 8 April Taiwan March Merchandise Trade 8 April Taiwan March Consumer Prices 9 April Australia March Unemployment 9 April China March Merchandise Trade (**) 9 April Korea Central Bank Meeting 1 April Australia April Consumer Confidence (**) 1 April China March Consumer Prices 1 April China March Producer Prices 1 April China March New Yuan loans (**) FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 4
Economic Release Calendar Calendar Date Country Event 1 April China March Money Supply (M2) (**) 1 April India February Industrial Production 1 April India March Consumer Prices 1 April Malaysia Febuary Industrial Production 1 April Singapore Central Bank Meeting (**) 14 April India March Wholesale Prices 14 April Indonesia Central Bank Meeting 14 April Indonesia February Retail Sales (**) 15 April China Q1 215 National Accounts 15 April China March Industrial Production 15 April China March Retail Sales 15 April China March Fixed Asset Investment 15 April Indonesia March Merchandise Trade 15 April Philippines February OFW Remittances 17 April India March Merchandise Trade (**) 17 April Singapore March Merchandise Trade 18 April China March Property Prices 2 April Korea March Merchandise Trade 2 April New Zealand April Business Confidence (**) 2 April New Zealand Q1 215 Consumer Prices 21 April Hong Kong March Consumer Prices 22 April Australia Q1 215 Consumer Prices 23 April China April HSBC Manufacturing PMI 23 April Korea Q1 215 National Accounts (*) 23 April Singapore March Consumer Prices 23 April Taiwan March Industrial Production 24 April Korea April Consumer Confidence 24 April Taiwan Central Bank Meeting (**) 25 April Vietnam April Consumer Prices (**) (*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 5
Notes and Statements PUBLICATION NOTE Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels. The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries: Asia (16 countries):, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Asia ex-japan (15 countries):, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 1 countries):, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar (Burma), Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. NIEs (Newly Industrialized Economies, 4 countries): Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates. COPYRIGHT NOTE Copyright 215 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows: FocusEconomics S.L. Gran Via 657 E-81 Barcelona Spain tel: +34 932 651 4 fax: +34 932 65 84 e-mail: info@focus-economics.com web: http://www.focus-economics.com DISCLOSURE STATEMENT The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia ( Forecast ) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists ( Information Providers ) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 6
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports cover economic forecasts for over 1,6 unique indicators in 95 countries. Every monthly report includes the Consensus Forecast for each indicator covered. The Consensus Forecast, based on an average of the forecasts provided by the most reputable economic research authorities in the world, is the one number you can rely on to make important business decisions. WHY CHOOSE FOCUSECONOMICS REDUCE RISK SAVE TIME OPTIMIZE RESEARCH ANALYZE TRENDS ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENTS Instantly diversify your intelligence portfolio with dozens of forecasts. Get just the information you need, all in one place. Streamline research efforts by utilizing our comprehensive survey of leading economists. Prepare for what may occur next by studying how forecasts have evolved over time. Gain key insight into political and economic developments in a country or region to assess the potential impact on business prospects. INDICATORS INCLUDED REAL SECTOR GDP per capita Economic Growth Consumption Investment Industrial Production Unemployment Rate Fiscal Balance Public Debt EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account Trade Balance Exports Imports International Reserves External Debt REGIONS & COUNTRIES COVERED MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money Inflation Rate Policy Interest Rate Exchange Rate ASIA PACIFIC, China, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia & New Zealand CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad & Tobago EASTERN EUROPE Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey & Ukraine EURO AREA Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain LATIN AMERICA Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela MAJOR ECONOMIES G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Eurozone, Germany & Italy); BRIC overview (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen; South Africa NORDIC ECONOMIES Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden FocusEconomics Gran Via 657, 81, Barcelona, Spain +34 932 651 4 subscribers@focus-economics.com www.focus-economics.com