Nepal Contemporary Political Situation V: Nationwide Opinion Survey Sudhindra Sharma and Pawan Kumar Sen Interdisciplinary Analysts 1
Nepal Contemporary Political Situation (NCPS) ï NCPS is a longitudinal opinion poll undertaken by Interdisciplinary Analysts (IDA) since December 04. ï The longitudinal opinion poll has, among others, helped map the shifts in public opinion. ï The aim is to bring the people's opinions into the public domain and thereby inform the political parties, government and other stakeholders on what the average Nepali man and woman thinks. ï The Asia Foundation (TAF) has been a longterm partner of IDA in this effort. 2
IDA's Involvement in Nationwide Opinion Surveys 1. 1999 General Election Opinion Poll: How Voters Assess Politics, Parties and Politicians (Fieldwork: February 1999; Published: April 1999) 2. Nepal Contemporary Political Situation I: Opinion Poll Report (Fieldwork: December 04; Published: March 05) 3. Nepal Contemporary Political Situation II: Opinion Poll Report (Fieldwork: January 06; Published: April 06) 4. Nepal Contemporary Political Situation III: Opinion Poll Report (Fieldwork: September 06; Published: December 06) 5. Nepal Contemporary Political Situation IV: Opinion Poll Report (Fieldwork: January 07; Published: April 07) 6. People's Perception of Safety in Nepal (Fieldwork: May 07) 7. Drivers of Legitimacy (Fieldwork: July 07) 8. Nepal Contemporary Political Situation V: Opinion Poll Report (Fieldwork: January 08) 3
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Questions ï ï ï ï ï ï ï ï How do the people assess the overall direction of the country? What do they think are some of the biggest problems facing the country? What is the level of trust of the public towards the government? What is their level of trust towards the various organizations and institutions? How do they assess the present government and what do they see as its strengths and its weaknesses? Do they see the political environment as being free of fear and intimidation? Who do the people blame for the repeated postponement of constituent assembly elections? What is their take on issues associated with state re-structuring, such as monarchy, relationship between the state and religion, identity, election system and unitary versus federal structure? What are their thoughts on agitation-movements ñ Madhesi movement and Janajati movement? 7
Objectives ï ï ï ï ï ï To document the public's level of trust towards the present government. To identify what the public perceives as the major challenges facing Nepal. To identify what the public perceives as the major challenges at the local level. To document the public's perception towards the various movements such as the madhesi people, janajati people, etc. including the state's response towards these. To document the public's perception towards issues related to state restructuring. To suggest to the government, various political parties, donors and other stakeholders what their priorities should be during the transition period that Nepal is currently going through. 8
Field duration ï Pre-test: 16 December 07 ï Orientation training: 18-19, December 07 ï Commencement of fieldwork: 23 December 07 ï Completion of fieldwork: 12 January 08 9
Pictures from the fieldwork Achham Sarlahi 10
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Larger politcal context at the time of fieldwork ï December 23, 07 ñ (i) Top leaders of the seven-party alliance and Maoists reached a 23- point agreement to end political deadlock and hold the constituent assembly elections by mid-april 08. December 27, 07 ñ United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) said that the joint monitoring team disqualified 12,648 Maoist combatants from being the members of the Maoists Peopleís Liberation Army members during the process of verification. ï ï ï ï December 28, 07 ñ (i) The interim parliament approved a bill for the third amendment to the interim constitution. After this amendment Nepal turned into a federal democratic republic, to be implemented by the first meeting of the constituent assembly. The amendment also cleared the way of holding CA elections in mid-april. (ii) Leader Mahantha Thakur announced the launch of a new political party called Tarai-Madhes Democratic Party (TMDP) for safeguarding ëidentity, rights and dignityí of the Madhesi people. Thakur resigned as a senior cabinet minister and a NC lawmaker to launch the regional party. January 4, 08 ñ (i) A meeting of the seven-party alliance decided to hold joint mass meetings in different cities across the country to create a conducive environment for the constituent assembly elections. (ii) Tarai-Madhes Democratic Party (TMDP) handed over an 11-point memorandum to Prime Minister Koirala and gave him an ultimatum to fulfill it by January 18. January 10, 08 ñ Prime Minister Koirala expanded cabinet by nominating three new ministers and five state ministers. On January 11 ñ (i) Government decided to hold the constituent assembly elections on April 10, 08. (ii) The Cabinet also decided to send the disqualified Maoistís PLA combatants to home by mid-february. 12
Survey Methodology Closed-questionnaire Sample size = 3,010 respondents Randomly selected 30 districts Selected sample represents 5 development regions and 3 geographic regions Probability proportionate to size Margin of error: + / - 1.8 (at the national level) 13
FW Mount MW Mount FW Hill MW Hill West Mount Central Mount East Mount FW Tarai West Hill Central Hill East Hill MW Tarai West Tarai Central Tarai East Tarai 14
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17 Demographic characteristics 100.0 100.0 Total 50.2 49.9 Male 49.8 50.1 Female (%) (%) Sample Population Sex 100.0 100.0 Total 3.3 4.6 70+ 8.0 7.5 60-69 13.9 11.9 50-59 19.7 17.4 40-49 26.8 24.7 30-39 28.5 33.9-29 (%) (%) Sample Population Age Group 100.0 100.0 Total 14.9 13.9 Urban 85.1 86.1 Rural (%) (%) Sample Population Residence
Demographic characteristics Development Region Eastern Central Western Mid-Western Far-Western Total Population (%) 23.1 34.7 19.7 13.0 9.5 100.0 Sample (%) 21.4 40.6 15.8 12.7 9.5 100.0 Ecological Region Mountain Hill Tarai Total Population (%) 7.3 44.3 48.4 100.0 Sample (%) 5.5 47.7 46.7 100.0 18
Demographic characteristics Religion Hindu Buddhist Islam Kirat Christianity Atheist Others Total Population (%) 80.7 10.7 4.2 3.6 0.5 0.0 0.3 100.0 Sample (%) 86.8 6.4 2.7 3.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0 19
Demographic characteristics Educational Status Illiterate Literate (without formal edu.) Primary Lower sec. Secondary SLC completed Inter. Bachelor's and above Total Sample (%) 38.1 14.4 13.6 9.4 6.1 10.9 5.5 2.0 100.0
21 1.76 1.76 2.43 2.49 2.62 2.82 3.09 4.15 4.75 5.68 7.24 8.41 15.12 16.45 Sample (%) 1.72 1.58 1.47 2.79 4.27 2.39 3.94 6.75 5.64 3.94 5.48 7.14 12.74 15.80 Population (%) 0.9768 Damai/Pariyar 0.8973 Limbu 0.6061 Thakuri 1.1197 Rai 1.6269 Muslim 0.8463 Gurung 1.2752 Kami/Biswokarma 1.6254 Tharu 1.1872 Tamang 0.6935 Yadav 0.7566 Newar 0.8495 Magar 0.8428 Bahun 0.9608 Chhetri Weight Caste/Ethnicity Demographic characteristics
22 0.56 0.56 0.63 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.76 0.80 0.83 0.90 0.93 0.93 0.96 1.23 1.66 Sample (%) 1.19 0.32 1.40 0.51 1.11 0.52 0.36 0.43 0.94 0.51 0.40 0.59 0.76 0.83 1.34 Population (%) Weight Caste/Ethnicity 2.1070 Chamar/Harijan 0.5666 Majhi 2.2179 Sarki/Mijar 0.7310 Kalwar 1.5910 Koiri 0.7453 Bhujel 0.4711 Lohar 0.5393 Hajam 1.1318 Kurmi 0.5686 Mallah 0.4300 Sudhi 0.6343 Tarai Brahman 0.7888 Musahar 0.6752 Dhanuk 0.8067 Teli Demographic characteristics
23 0. 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.27 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.40 0.47 0.50 0.50 0.53 0.53 0.56 Sample (%) 0.06 0.88 0.23 0.44 0.42 0.33 0.60 0.16 0.34 0.64 0.70 0.23 0.55 0.42 0.29 Population (%) Weight Caste/Ethnicity 0.3010 Thakali 3.7840 Sanyasi 0.9890 Chepang 1.89 Kumal 1.5803 Rajbansi 0.9030 Khatwe 1.6418 Kewat 0.4378 Barahi 0.8528 Tatma 1.3760 Sonar 1.4047 Dusadh 0.4615 Danuwar 1.0347 Baniya 0.7901 Kanu 0.5135 Nuniya Demographic characteristics
24 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.17 0. Sample (%) Weight Population (%) Caste/Ethnicity 0.02 0.19 0.09 0.32 0.16 0.07 0.15 0.22 0.19 0.06 0.02 0.42 0.76 0. 0.24 0.60 Meche 5.7190 Marwadi 2.7090 Dhimal 4.8160 Dhobi 2.4080 Bantar 1.0535 Darai 1.5050 Kahar 2.73 Haluwai 1.9063 Satar 0.4515 Tajpuriya 0.1505 Badi 3.1605 Sunuwar 5.7190 Sherpa 1.40 Kayastha 1.40 Kumhar Demographic characteristics
Demographic characteristics Caste/Ethnicity Population (%) Sample (%) Weight Rajput 0.21 0.03 6.3210 Rajbhar 0.11 0.03 3.3110 Bhediya 0.08 0.03 2.4080 Mali 0.05 0.03 1.5050 Sikh 0.01 0.03 0.3010 Others 3.28 0.96 3.4044 Total 100.00 100.00 25
Broad group of caste/ethnicity of the respondents 35 30 31 25 22 Percent 15 10 5 7 5 17 9 5 4 0 Hill Caste Hill Ethnic Hill Dalit Newar Madhesi Caste Madhesi Ethnic Madhesi Dalit Muslim Caste/ethnicity of the respondents by origin Percent 70 60 50 40 30 10 0 65 Non-Madhesi 35 Madhesi 26
Country's overall direction and challenges 27
0% Generally speaking, do you think the country is moving in the right direction, or do you think that it is moving in the wrong direction? (Q11, Base = 3010) 17% 25% Right direction 17% Wrong direction Some in right, some in wrong direction Refused 41% Don't know/cannot say Generally speaking, do you think the country is moving in the right direction, or do you think that it is moving in the wrong direction? (Q11, Base = 3010) 80 60 63 Percent 40 31 28 21 15 12 10 0 Non-Madhesi Madhesi Right direction Wrong direction Some in right, some in wrong direction Don't know/cannot say 28
Percent 50 40 30 10 0 If you think the country is moving in the right direction, then why? (Q12, base = 764) 44 37 Improvement in law and order The 10-year armed conflict has come to an end 18 17 Maoists have entered into open politics The country is normal 15 Don't know/ cannot say 29
If you think the country is moving in the wrong direction, then why? (Q13, base = 12) 50 40 40 33 Percent 30 10 15 15 13 0 There is no improvement in law and order There is lack of unity among the main political parties Price hike Development activities have come to a halt CA election has not taken place The country's situation has not become normal Percent 60 40 If you think the country is moving in the wrong direction, then why? (Q13, base = 12) 53 40 25 28 22 18 19 14 12 17 0 Non-Madhesi Madhesi There is lack of unity among the main political parties There is no improvement in law and order Price hike Constituent Assembly election has not taken place Development activities have come to a halt 30
Percent 30 25 15 10 5 0 In your view, what are the two major problems facing Nepal as a whole? (Q14, base = 3010) 25 Poverty 22 Don't know/ cannot say 17 17 15 Price hike Unemployment Lack of development 10 Bandh/strick/ chakka-jam What are the two major problems at the local level? (Q15, base = 3010) 50 40 41 Percent 30 10 25 24 16 13 11 0 Lack of roads Lack of domestic water Lack of electricity Poverty Lack of irrigation Unemployment 31
Assessing the government and various institutions 32
I am going to ask you about some of the organizations and associations of our country. What is the level of trust towards these organizations and associations ñ trust very much, trust somewhat, not much trust or no trust at all? (Q16, base = 3010) Q16 Trust very much Trust somewhat Not much trust No trust at all Refuse Donít know Legislative Parliament 3.4 22.0 15.5 22.2 0.1 36.8 Cabinet 3.2 21.5 16.4 28 0.1 30.8 Civil service 8.0 28.5 19.1 15.5 0.0 28.9 Nepal Police 11.8 36.9 19.7 19.2 0.0 12.4 Nepali Army 14.5 38.1 17.2 16.6 0.0 13.6 Judiciary 13.1 34.3 16.0 13.2 0.1 23.4 NGOs 10.1 32.9 17.5 9.7 0.1 29.7 Human rights activists 13.5 34.0 12.7 8.2 0.1 31.5 Media persons.1 37.4 12.5 6.1 0.0 23.8 Religious organizations.8 33.2 13.2 9.4 0.0 23.4 Ethnic organizations 17.8 34.0 13.2 11.4 0.0 23.5 Civil Society 16.4 32.6 12.0 6.0 0.1 32.8 33
6% Generally speaking, how do you assess the performance of the present government - very good, good, bad, very bad? (Q17, Base = 3010) 3% 24% 38% Very good Good Bad Very bad Don't know/cannot say 29% Percent 50 40 30 10 0 Generally speaking, how do you assess the performance of the present government - very good, good, bad, very bad? (Q17, Base = 3010) 42 24 25 4 6 7 4 Non-Madhesi 27 39 Madhesi Very good Good Bad Very bad Don't know/cannot say 22 34
Percent 50 40 30 10 0 What are the strengths of the present government? (Q18, base = 3010) 39 Don't know/ cannot say 31 There is no positive feature 14 Prospects for lasting peace has increased 10 It is negotiating with agitationsmovements 6 The government has made daily life normal 40 What are the weaknesses of the present government? (Q19, base = 3010) 34 Percent 30 10 25 21 12 10 0 Don't know/ cannot say It has not controlled price hike It has not held Constituent Assembly election The government has not fulfilled basic needs It has not fulfilled the demands of agitations - movements 35
Political intimidation 36
Do people express their political views without intimidation in the area where you live? (Q, base = 3010) 27% 50% Yes, they do No, they do not 23% Don't know/cannot say Percent 60 50 40 30 10 0 Why do you think people express their political views without feeling intimidated? (Q21, base = 1505) 48 The conflict has declined 28 26 The state has guaranteed freedom of speech Maoists have entered into open politics 14 Don't know/ cannot say 11 The people cannot take it any more 37
Percent 40 30 10 0 Why do you think people are hesitant to express their political views? (Q22, base = 679) 33 29 22 15 15 12 Don't know/ cannot say The conflict has not ended permanently Activities of armed groups has increased The state has not been able to guarantee freedom of speech Violent behaviour persists among Maoists Political parties have been inactive at the local level Percent 50 40 30 10 0 Why do you think people are hesitant to express their political views? (Q22, base = 679) 42 44 41 18 7 11 Non-Madhesi 22 Madhesi The conflict has not ended permanently Activities of armed groups has increased Violent behaviour persists among Maoists Don't know/cannot say The state has not been able to guarantee freedom of speech 8 38
Constituent assembly 39
Public's understanding of the constituent assembly Percent 80 70 60 50 40 30 10 0 55 59 60 67 49 29 23 23 24 26 14 14 18 18 21 04 Dec 06 Jan 06 Sep 07 May 08 Jan Heard about it Claim knowledge Correctly understand 40
Do you think that elections for constituent assembly can be held within the next six months? (Q31, Base = 16) 22% 36% Yes No Don't know/cannot say 42% Do you think that elections for constituent assembly will be held within the next six months? Percent 50 40 30 10 0 40 41 31 36 28 22 07 May 08 Jan Yes No Don't know/cannot say 41
Perceptions regarding 'New Nepal' 42
Have you ever heard about 'New Nepal'? (Q32a, Base = 3010) 5% 36% 59% Yes No Don't know/cannot say If you have heard about 'New Nepal', do you agree or disagree with the phrase? (Q32b, Base = 1778) 11% 6% 6% 37% Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree 40% Strongly disagree Don't know/cannot say 43
If you strongly agree or somewhat agree with the phrase 'New Nepal', what do you expect from 'New Nepal'? (Q32c, base = 1365) Percent 60 50 40 30 48 29 25 22 18 10 0 There will be development The law and order situation will be good There will be equal opportunities for all The unemployment problem will be solved There will be equal development in all regions 44
Rating of Variuous Rights Q40 Mean Public's rating towards the right to equality Public's rating towards the right to freedom of opinion and expression Public's rating towards the right to freedom to assemble peacefully and without arms Public's rating towards the right to freedom to practise any profession Public's rating towards the right to property Public's rating towards the cultural and linguistic rights Public's rating towards the right to religion Public's rating towards the right to information Public's rating towards the right to select political party Public's rating towards the right to freedom to form unions and associations 8.64 8.42 8.34 8.23 8.14 8.00 7.98 7.93 7.81 7.59 45
State restructuring 46
Should there be or should there not be a place for monarchy in the Nepal of the future? (Q41, Base = 3010) 12% 50% There should be There should not be 38% Don't know/cannot say Public's stand on monarchy Percent 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 10 0 81 74 53 46 49 45 39 43 38 43 19 14 5 6 6 10 2 12 04 Dec 06 Jan 06 Sep 07 Jan 07 May 08 Jan Support for monarchy No support for monarchy Don't know/cannot say 47
Should the Nepal of the future be a secular state or a Hindu state? (Q43, Base = 3010) 10% 31% It should be a secular state It should be a Hindu state 59% Don't know/cannot say Percent 70 60 50 40 30 10 0 Should the Nepal of the future be a secular state or a Hindu state? 59 59 59 31 33 31 9 9 10 06 Sep 07May 08 Jan It should be a Hindu state Don't know/cannot say It should be a secular state 48
What should be the language policy of the Nepal of the future? (Q44, Base = 3010) 7% 42% Nepali language should be the only official language 51% Other national languagess should be adopted as official languages at local level Don't know/cannot say Percent 100 80 60 40 0 What should be the language policy of the Nepal of the future? (Q44, Base = 3010) 56 33 Non-Madhesi 9 12 82 Madhesi 3 Nepali language should be the only official language Other national languagess should be adopted as official languages at local level Don't know/cannot say 49
Percent 60 50 40 30 10 0 What should be the language policy of Nepal of the future? 55 38 6 48 43 5 06 Sep 07 May 08 Jan Nepali language should be the only official language Other languages should be also adopted as official language Don't know/cannot say 50 41 6 50
How do you like to identify yourself? (Q45, Base = 3010) 2% 4% I like to be identified as Nepali only 41% 53% I like to be equally identified as Nepali & with particular ethnicity/region I like to be identified with particular ethnicity/region only Don't know/cannot say 80 How do you like to identify yourself? (Q45, Base = 3010) 70 76 60 Percent 40 21 19 5 3 0 Non-Madhesi Madhesi I like to be identified as Nepali only I like to be equally identified as Nepali & with particular Don't know/cannot say 51
How do you like to identify yourself? 60 50 54 52 Percent 40 30 39 41 10 0 6 07 May 08 Jan 2 I like to be identified as Nepali only I like to be equally identified as Nepali and with particular ethnicity/region I like to be identified with particular ethnicity/region only 52
Have you ever heard about various electoral systems like First-Past-the-Post System and Proportional System? (Q46, Base = 3010) 15% 30% Have heard Have not heard 55% Don't know/cannot say Have you ever heard about various electoral systems like First- Past-the-Post System and Proportional System? Percent 40 30 10 13 30 0 06 Sep 08 Jan Have heard 53
Have you ever heard about the unitary system and the federal system? (Q48, Base = 3010) 11% 23% Have heard Have not heard Don't know/cannot say 66% Have you ever heard about the federal system? 30 Percent 10 10 16 23 0 06 Sep 07 May 08 Jan Have heard 54
Women's issues 55
Do you think that women have to face specific kinds of problems in our country? (Q50, Base = 3010) 7% 6% Yes No Don't know/cannot say 87% 50 If you think that women have to face specific kinds of problems, what are the two biggest problems? (Q51, base = 2618) 46 40 37 Percent 30 10 24 23 11 0 Lack of access to education Lack of freedom Domestic violence Unemployment Lack of control over one's body 56
Percent 60 50 40 30 10 f you think that women have to face specific kinds of problems, what are the two biggest problems? (Q51, base = 2618) 43 49 37 37 26 23 22 23 11 10 0 Female Male Lack of access to education Lack of freedom Domestic violence Unemployment Lack of control over one's body 57
Agitation-movements 58
The Madhesi movement has been going on for the past few months. Have you ever heard of this? (Q52, Base = 3010) 3% 28% 69% Yes No Don't know/cannot say Percent 100 80 60 40 0 The Madhesi movement has been going on for the past few months. Have you ever heard of this? (Q52, Base = 3010) 61 35 Non-Madhesi 84 14 4 2 Yes No Don't know/cannot say Madhesi 59
If you have heard of the Madhesi movement, do you know the demands put forth by the movement? (Q53, Base = 75) 9% 33% Yes No Don't know/cannot say 58% If you have heard of the Madhesi movement, do you know the demands put forth by the movement? (Q53, Base = 75) 70 60 61 54 Percent 50 40 30 10 27 11 40 7 0 Non-Madhesi Madhesi Yes No Don't know/cannot say 60
If yes, do you agree or disagree with the demands of the Madhesi movement? (Q54, Base = 677) 25% 11% 40% Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree 24% If yes, do you agree or disagree with the demands of the Madhesi movement? (Q54, Base = 677) 80 73 70 Percent 60 50 40 30 27 18 49 21 10 0 4 Non-Madhesi 2 4 2 1 Madhesi Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know/cannot say 61
In your opinion, how can the Madhesi movement be resolved? (Q55, Base = 75) 9% 11% By the government fulfilling their demands unconditionally By the govt negotiating with leaders of Madhesi movemement Don't know/cannot say 80% In your opinion, how can the Madhesi movement be resolved? (Q55, Base = 75) 100 80 82 76 Percent 60 40 0 7 Non-Madhesi 16 9 8 Madhesi By the government fulfilling their demands unconditionally By the govt negotiating with leaders of Madhesi movemement Don't know/cannot say 62
The Janjati movement has been going on for the past few months. Have you ever heard of this? (Q56, Base = 3010) 5% Yes 42% 53% No Don't know/cannot say If you have heard of the Janjati movement, do you know the demands put forth by the movement? (Q57, Base = 1579) 7% 36% Yes No Don't know/cannot 57% 63
If yes, do you agree or disagree with the demands of the Janjati movement? (Q58, Base = 568) 10% 0% 9% 33% Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know/cannot say 48% In your opinion, how can the Janjati movement be resolved? (Q59, Base = 1579) 1% 7% 10% By the government fulfilling their demands unconditionally By the govt negotiating with leaders of Janjati movemement By suppressing Janjati movement through state security force 82% Don't know/cannot say 64
Constituent Assembly Elections and Political Parties 65
Percent 50 40 30 10 0 If the election for constituent assembly were to be held today, whom would you vote for? 45 39 27 35 24 07 Jan 07 May 08 Jan 22 43 38 15 Don't know/cannot say Political Parties Refused to disclose 66
Conclusion ï ï ï ï Only a small proportion of people have heard about the issues raised by the political parties such as federal state, proportional electoral system, etc. Likewise, only a small proportion understand what a constituent assembly election is. The people have identified poverty, price hike and unemployment as the major problems facing the country. People have likewise identified development related issues as the main challenges at the local level. There is a mismatch between the expectations of the people and the issues raised by political parties. It is necessary for political parties to be sensitive towards overcoming poverty, price hike and unemployment and initiate development activities at the local level. The mood of the Madhes is different from the mood of the rest of the country. The mood in the Madhes is becoming pessimistic. If the state is not able to address the genuine greviances of Madhes the country may be headed for another accident. 67