Migration and multicultural Britain British Society for Population Studies 2 nd May 2006, Greater London Authority
Why migration and cultural origin? Public debate on population patterns Influence on small areas Migration at heart of public policy Community cohesion Housing investment Immigration
Migration in multicultural Britain Origins of immigration Destinations of immigrants Transnational communities Housing capacity in inner cities Migration, class and culture The changing nature of ethnicity Migration and demographic characteristics Indigenous population Diverse communities
Data sources for migration and multicultural Britain No civil registration of migration Census migration question Census country of birth 1991-2001 net migration Areas of changed composition Population databases Migrant databases Qualitative studies
More mixing? More segregation? Ludi Simpson, Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research, University of Manchester BSPS Migration and multicultural Britain, 2 nd May 2006
Integration, migration and Assimilation population patterns Dispersal lower segregation residential melting pot Plural continuity Social capital in clusters dispersal suburban clustering / mosaic
Rochdale Area classification according to Asian population and growth 1991 1991-2001 Settlement >33% +6,186 +31% Middleton Oldham Growth 500 +5,510 +98% Small growth 100 +1,134 +249% Other <100 +445 +75%
Migration 2000-01 Net Migration within the UK 2000-2001 % of 2001 population All White Immigration 2000-2001, % of 2001 population Groups other than White All White Groups other than White Asian settlement 1991-2.2-2.6-2.0 0.7 0.2 1.0 Asian growth 91-01 -0.7-1.5 2.4 0.5 0.2 1.3 Small Asian growth -0.3-0.7 4.1 0.2 0.1 0.9 Other areas -0.6-0.7 2.1 0.2 0.1 0.8
Net Migration 1991-2001 method Ethnic group 1991 and 2001 categories matched White, Bangladeshi, Pakistani, Chinese, Indian, Caribbean, African For each ethnic group: Neighbourhood population change = 2001-1991 Neighbourhood births 1991-2001 = children in 2001 Constrained to vital statistics Borough total 1991-2001 Neighbourhood deaths 1991-2001 estimated from 1991 age structure Equal mortality rates Constrained to vital statistics Borough total 1991-2001 Neighbourhood net migration = Population change (Births Deaths)
Net Migration 1991-2001 evaluation Methodological issues Adjust for undercount, population base, geography, age information Children 2001 and estimated deaths include migrants Leads to under-estimation of absolute size of net migration Comparison with 2000-01 shows consistency Extensions Age-specific: net migration profiles USA Counties Paul Voss et al: 1960-70- 80-90- 00 Albert Sabater / Nissa Finney at CCSR Results for Oldham and Rochdale neighbourhoods Vasilis Gavalas
Migration 1991-2001 Natural change 1991-2001 Total persons White Black Indian Pak ni B shi Other Asian settlement 1991 5164-1158 -3 77 3410 2527 314 Asian growth 91-01 2442-812 17 43 2160 583 448 Small Asian growth 795 302 9 3 233 122 126 Other areas 885 382 5 14 168 46 269 Net migration 1991-2001 Total persons White Black Indian Pak ni B shi Other Asian settlement 1991-4188 -4454-300 -358-211 741 392 Asian growth 91-01 -3481-6599 -164-56 1743 1037 555 Small Asian growth 414-494 -54 9 508 258 185 Other areas -3253-3640 -105-4 168 53 270
Districts with one ward more than 10% Black and Asian Migration within UK from wards with most Black/Asian residents White left, Black / Asian left White came, Black / Asian left Black / Asian came Black/Asian Births vs Black/Asian immigration Of all 83 Districts 45 20 18 56 Ealing -99, -1438 Births more Newham -160, -931 Births more Leicester +35, -816 Immigration more Birmingham -786, -1320 Births more Blackburn -148, -193 Births more Brent -128, -348 Immigration more Bradford +185, -444 Births more Redbridge -210, -155 Births more Pendle -23, -120 Births more Tower Hamlets -28, -693 Births more http://www.ccsr.ac.uk/ research/migseg.htm Southwark -28, -693 Births more Luton -150, -89 Births more Burnley -30, -159 Births more
More mixing? More segregation? Increasing number of mixed wards 10% both White and Other: 1,070 (2001, from 864 in 1991) Mixed ethnic group 4 th largest group after White, Indian, Pakistani Half aged under 16 Index of segregation (dissimilarity, spread) Decreased for each ethnic group 1991-2001 Among religions, highest for Jewish Index of polarisation (average proportion) Up for Pakistani and Bangladeshi to 17% for wards Reflects changing composition, not migration toward concentrations Migration away from Black and Asian areas Yes, of all groups In similar proportions
Migration 2000-2001 Net migration with rest of UK England and Wales electoral wards Fifths of minority population Not White White Lowest minority ethnic population (2%) +9,700 +40,189 Low (13%) +12,841-9,503 Medium (27%) -615-9,382 High (43%) -8,238-11,570 Highest minority ethnic population (66%) -13,033-9,463 From highest as % of population -1.4% -2.0%
Conclusions Figures are not in dispute Decreasing segregation: not migration towards ones own group Increased geographical evenness, spread between areas Movement away from areas that are full up and/or poor housing Growing black and asian population in all areas More mixed areas More areas that have minority White These are usually diverse areas The debate has been based upon a type of analysis that suggests that too many Black people or too many Asians living together is a problem, while the same dominance by White people is acceptable. We find this suggestion offensive to the people of London. (Greater London Authority, 10 Nov 2005)