THE 2012 ELECTIONS A LOOK AHEAD DOUG SOSNIK MAY 31, 2012 The current economic and political climate suggests that we are headed for a fourth change election in a row. (slide #2) It s not hard to see why. The electorate s continued dissatisfaction with the slow economic recovery, the disconnect between voters priorities and politicians own agendas, and a lack of faith in the ability of our government or public institutions to solve our biggest problems have fueled voters anxiety and frustration levels. With five months to go until Election Day, all incumbents regardless of party are at risk of losing their seats. President Obama is no exception. But buried in all the recent bad news about Obama s vulnerabilities are several underlying indicators that suggest the president remains poised for victory this November. THE 2012 ELECTORATE: DISSATISFIED, DISAPPOINTED AND DISAFFECTED The economic recovery s slow pace has left many voters uncertain about the future. Recent polls confirm the public s continued dissatisfaction with the status quo. Today, the vast majority of voters continue to believe that the country is on the wrong track. (slide #4) A poll conducted by the PEW Center for the People & the Press on April 26 th found that sixty-two percent of the public holds an unfavorable view of the federal government. Americans confidence in public institutions is also down, with Congress ranking dead last among other institutions on the list. (slides #5 and 6) The difficult political landscape at home is complicated by the instability abroad. Increasingly, the global economy has linked the United States fate with that of its world partners. Rising unemployment, staggering public debt, social discord and deep austerity measures have contributed to a growing trend of antiincumbency around the world. Since the start of the recession, eleven European leaders including those in France, Spain and Italy - have fallen victim to the economic crisis. And as the global turmoil continues to play out the president is powerless to control the impact of these world events back home. Other factors at home could play into an already volatile environment. It s possible that Obama s support of gay marriage and the Supreme Court s ruling on the health care law (either striking down all or parts of the law) could impact public opinion and even marginally help in a handful of swing states. But it s very unlikely that these issues or any others will eclipse the economy in voters minds and meaningfully impact the results of the presidential race. THE CASE FOR OBAMA Despite Struggling Economy, Voters Haven t Abandoned Obama: The current economic conditions are hardly ideal for any incumbent seeking re-election. The 8.1% national unemployment rate makes the president s re-election campaign even more difficult. No modern-day president has ever been re-elected to a second term with unemployment this high. And the Conference Board s release of the latest consumer confidence ratings of 64.9% - a five-month low - should be of great concern to the Obama re-election campaign. (slide #7) Nevertheless, elections are about the future and while Americans could hardly be characterized as buoyant, they continue to express more hope than anxiety. Last week s Washington Post-ABC News poll found that a majority of Americans (58% to 38%) are more hopeful than anxious about their personal finances over the next few years. Fifty-one percent said that Obama would do a better job of advancing the interests of the middle class; forty-two percent said that would do a better job.
State unemployment and housing data also indicate that the economic picture looks a lot better state, bystate than it does nationally. In April, the unemployment rate decreased in two-thirds of the states. In the twelve states that are considered either toss-ups or in play by the campaign, eight states have unemployment rates lower than the national average, and five have unemployment rates under seven percent. Sales of existing U.S. homes rose sharply in April and a falloff in foreclosures pushed prices higher. Several of the battleground states showed signs of improvement, particularly in hard-hit states like Florida, Ohio and Virginia. Voters Continue to Blame Bush More than Obama for Economic Problems: Americans understand that the country s economic problems have been long in the making. They haven t forgotten that the economy was already on a downward spiral when Obama inherited it in 2008. According to the recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, 49% of the electorate continues to believe that Bush is more responsible for the country s economic problems than Obama. Thirty-four percent of the public holds Obama more accountable. This week s NBC-Marist polls conducted in Colorado, Iowa and Nevada show similar results: By margins of twenty points or more, voters blame inherited conditions rather than Obama policies for the current economic conditions of the country. Obama s Favorability Ratings Remain Relatively Strong: Despite voters ongoing angst they have continued to give Obama relatively high favorability marks. The May 27 th Washington Post poll showed Obama s favorability rating holding steady at 52% - a relatively strong rating in the current economic environment, especially when compared to other elected officials ratings right now. s Weakness Apparent in Thin Support Levels: In the same Washington Post poll, s current 45% unfavorable rating is higher than his 41% favorable rating. The long and divisive Republican primary underscored s lack of personal appeal to Republicans in general and his inability to connect with people specifically. Charlie Cook recently noted that by the time sealed the Republican nomination in April during the competitive phase of the primaries he had compiled the lowest share of the national Republican primary results since the beginning of the primary-dominated process in the 1970 s. The primary process also drove up s negatives among Independents. All of this happened at a time when the Republicans primary field will likely go down as one of the weakest in history. The Republican Party s Negative Brand Compounds s Problems: Voters remain sharply negative toward the Republican Party. The May 20 th NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll showed the party with net negative approval ratings. Thirty-three percent of those surveyed approved of the party, while 43% disapproved. These low ratings will be a drag for among Independents and soft Democrats. The Electoral College Map Favors Obama: Obama has an easier path than to gain the 270 electoral votes he needs to win this November. That s in part because the electoral map currently tilts toward Democrats as illustrated by the results of the last few elections. In 2008, Obama won with 365 electoral votes. Clinton was elected in 1992 with 370 electoral votes and again in 1996 with 379. Contrast that with the fact that no Republican candidate has won 300 electoral votes since 1988 despite winning the White House twice. Part of the Democratic advantage stems from the fact that 104 of those votes come from the safe Democratic states of California, New York and Illinois. In at least 38 states there seems to be general agreement about which candidate will win in November. The remaining twelve states are considered to be toss-ups by some political analysts, although many have cut this list down to nine toss-up states. Doug Sosnik 2
OBAMA S PATHS TO 270 Earlier this year the Obama campaign laid out several different paths to get to 270 using the 2004 Kerry map as their starting point 246 electoral votes (251 pre-reapportionment). (slide #19) The four most plausible routes are focused on: 1) the West, 2) Florida, 3) the South, and 4) the Midwest. 1. Western Route 2. Florida Route 3. Southern Route 4. Midwest Route Colorado (+9) Florida (+29) Virginia (+13) Ohio (+18) New Mexico (+5) N. Carolina (+ 15) Iowa (+6) Nevada (+6) Iowa (+6) 272 Electoral Votes 275 Electoral Votes 274 Electoral Votes 270 Electoral Votes Doug Sosnik 3
ROMNEY S PATHS TO 270 s potential paths to 270 electoral votes are much more limited. The easiest option has been characterized as the 3-2-1 option, which starts out with the 2008 McCain map with 180 electoral votes (post-reapportionment), plus three Republican-leaning states (Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina), plus two swing states (Ohio and Florida), and either Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada or New Mexico to reach or exceed 270 electoral votes. s second path requires breaking the Democratic stronghold on the industrial Midwest by capturing either Pennsylvania, Michigan or (all three states have voted Democratic in the last five presidential elections) as a foundation to reach 270. 1. The 3-2-1 Route 2. Industrial Midwest McCain 2008 Electoral Votes - 180 Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming Indiana (+11) Indiana (+11) North Carolina (+15) Ohio (+18) Virginia (+13) Florida (+29) Ohio (+18) North Carolina (+15) Florida (+29) Either New Hampshire (+4), Iowa (+6), Colorado (+9), Nevada (+6) or New Mexico (+5) MY VIEW OF WHERE THE RACE STANDS TODAY McCain 2008 Electoral Votes 180 Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming 1 of 4 of the Following Options: Pennsylvania (+20) Michigan (+16) and Iowa (+6) Michigan (+16) and New Hampshire (+4) (+10), Iowa (+6), New Hampshire (+4) 270-275 Electoral Votes 273-275 Electoral Votes Based on the current environment I think that Obama starts out with 237 electoral votes. This map tracks closely with Kerry s 2004 results, but adds New Mexico and moves and New Hampshire to the undecided column. starts with 191 electoral votes, which tracks with McCain s 2008 states (180 electoral votes post-reapportionment), but adds Indiana s eleven electoral votes. The remaining 110 electoral votes in nine states (Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio,, New Hampshire and Iowa) are up for grabs. (slide #20) This week s ad buys by both campaigns and the outside groups supporting them line up closely with this map, with the exception of (facing a recall election next week) and New Mexico (where neither campaign has purchased media). The target states are being saturated by paid media, with the heaviest concentration in Virginia and North Carolina. Doug Sosnik 4
Demographic Trends Improve Obama s Chances: In 2008, strong support and turnout among African Americans, Hispanics, younger voters and women delivered the presidency to Obama. The demographic trends that aided Obama in 2008 are even more pronounced in 2012. As recently as 1992, white voters comprised 87% of the total vote with their share of the vote down to 74% in 2008. (See Slide #24) A recent analysis by William Frey of the Brookings Institute shows how the white vote is becoming a significantly lower percentage of the total eligible vote across the country. Since 2008, white voters have declined by 2.2% of the voter eligible population. This decline of white eligible voters has occurred in every toss-up state, with the exception of Ohio. In Nevada, there has been a 9.2% decline in the white percentage of total eligible voters in just the past three years. The latest data released by the U.S. Census Bureau last week shows that the country s population has reached a significant turning point, with the births of Hispanic, Asian, African Americans, and those of mixed race constituting a majority of births for the first time. In the twelve-month period that ended last July, minorities made up 50.4% of the births in the United States. Historically, new and infrequent voters are the least likely to vote in a low-intensity election. The Obama campaign clearly recognizes that voters in general are less enthusiastic this year and that turnout could be a problem. In an effort to engage voters and boost turnout the campaign has invested tens of millions of dollars into the field effort in battleground states rather than plowing this money into paid media. This strategic decision is one of the most significant ones of the entire election cycle, but has been underreported by the media. The attached chart (Appendix A) provides a state-by-state look at the 2008 presidential election results and the conditions on the ground. TWO FACTORS THAT WON T DETERMINE THE PRESIDENTIAL OUTCOME Money: A lot has been written about the unprecedented infusion of money into Super PACs following the Supreme Court s Citizens United decision. There s no question that there will be lots of money spent by both sides. But it s doubtful that money alone will shape the outcome of the presidential. Both candidates and their surrogates will have plenty of money to make their case. The place where money could make a significant difference would be in the Senate and House races, particularly in red and purple states. s Vice Presidential Running Mate: In the weeks to follow there will be a lot of breathless speculation about s pick for vice president. But you would have to go back over half a century to the Kennedy/Nixon election when Kennedy selected Lyndon Johnson as his running mate to find a case where the selection of the vice presidential candidate impacted the outcome of the presidential contest. THE U.S. SENATE AND HOUSE ELECTIONS U.S. Senate: Republican candidates continue to squander their opportunity to pick up a net of four seats they need to take control of the Senate. In the 2010 elections, Republicans tidal wave in the House resulted in a gain of 63 seats, but Republicans failed to take full advantage of the environment in the Senate, limiting their gains to only six seats. Republicans paid a high cost for their poor candidate recruitment, weak fundraising and the Tea Party primaries, and have repeated the same mistakes this cycle. The opportunity costs for continued failure are even higher this year as Democrats fight to hold on to the 23 seats they currently hold this November. (slide #21) Doug Sosnik 5
The biggest overall shift in the Senate elections is the growing correlation between how people vote for president and the Senate, without splitting their vote. Gone are the days when Democrats could control the entire Senate delegations in states like North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska where voters overwhelmingly favored the Republican candidate for the presidency. Democrats are most imperiled in strong red presidential states such as North Dakota, Nebraska, Missouri and Montana. The states currently held by Republicans that are most at risk are Massachusetts and Maine that tend to vote Democratic for the president. Hawaii and the remaining purple states of Virginia, Nevada,, Ohio, Florida and New Mexico all face toss-up Senate races. U.S House of Representatives: The 2012 elections will be the first since the 2010 Census reapportioned electoral votes by state. Democrats need 25 seats to take back the House. Even though most analysts predict a net gain for Democrats, it will take a strong Obama performance at the top of the ticket and significant anti-incumbent headwinds for Democrats to pick up enough seats to regain control. (slide #22) THE END GAME THE FINAL FIVE MONTHS At this point it is unlikely that the basic contours of the campaign will change much in the next five months. The economy is likely to continue to experience ups and down, and the turbulence abroad shows no signs of dissipating. Between now and Election Day the presidential election will continue to be close. Despite all the challenges, Obama has improved his overall position in the last six months. And while Obama's job approval is not as high as the 53% that Reagan and Clinton enjoyed at this point in their first term, it is far better than George H.W. Bush's 41% approval rating or Jimmy Carter's 38%. In fact, Obama's current approval rating is identical to George W. Bush's in May of 2004. s weak standing can only help Obama. Up until now has failed to connect with voters or articulate a coherent vision for the future. There s no doubt that is a man of faith, family and professional accomplishment, but he has yet to reveal the personal, positive aspects of his life that drive him. He has also gone to great lengths to distance himself from his two most significant professional achievements serving as governor of Massachusetts and his time at Bain Capital. The primary season gave ample time to find his voice and make the case for his presidency. History hasn t been kind to candidates who have headed into the general without a clear narrative about who they are and where they want to lead the country. Last September I wrote a memo that looked at the history of the last five presidential campaigns with an incumbent on the ballot. (memo attached) Based on my look back, I concluded that the presidential campaign would come down to two distinct phases: 1) The referendum phase (the period between the last quarter of year three and the selection of the opposition party s nominee) and 2) The choice phase (the general election period). I made the case that the referendum phase could be determinative for Obama. Even though the referendum phase wouldn t necessarily secure his re-election, it could have effectively ended it. Obama successfully cleared that hurdle in the last six months. Obama s durability in the polls ensures that the election will ultimately come down to a choice between the two candidates, rather than a referendum on his first term. There s no one indicator that points to an Obama victory. Obama s relative popularity, the recognition by the public that he inherited the country s economic problems, s weaknesses as a candidate, and a favorable electoral map should be enough for Obama to secure four more years in the White House making him the fourth president out of the last five to win a second term. Doug Sosnik 6
APPENDIX A: TOSS-UP STATE PROFILES Toss-up States Obama 08 Vote (52.9% Nationally) Obama 08 White Vote (44% Nationally) 2012 State Polling Michigan 57.4% 51% 53% Obama/ 39% [PPP, 5/27] New Mexico 56.9% 42% 54% Obama/40% [PPP, 4/22] 56.2% 54% 51% Obama/43% [Marquette, 5/26] Nevada 55.15% 45% 48% Obama/46% [NBC/Marist, 5/24] Pennsylvania 54.49% 48% 47% Obama/41% [Rasmussen, 5/21] Iowa 53.9% 51% 44% Obama/44% [NBC/Marist, 5/24] New Hampshire 54.13% 54% 53% Obama/41% [PPP, 5/13] Colorado 53.6% 50% 46% Obama/45% [NBC/Marist, 5/24] Virginia 52.6% 39% 48% Obama/ 44% [NBC/Marist, 5/20] Ohio 51.5% 46% 48% Obama/42% [NBC/Marist, 5/20] Florida 50.9% 42% 48% Obama/ 44% [NBC/Marist 5/20] North Carolina 49.7% 35% 44% Obama/45% [Survey USA, 5/21] Unemployment Rate (April 12) 8.3% 6.9% 6.7% 11.7% 7.4% 5.1% 5% 7.9% 5.6% 7.4% 8.7% 9.4% Doug Sosnik 7