Flash Eurobarometer 270 The Gallup Organization Flash Eurobarometer European Commission Introduction of the euro in the new Member States Fieldwork: May 2009 This survey was requested by Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs and coordinated by Directorate General Communication This document does not represent the point of view of the European Commission., page 1 The interpretations and opinions contained in it are solely those of the authors.
Flash EB Series #270 Introduction of the euro in the new Member States Wave 8 Survey conducted by The Gallup Organization, Hungary upon the request of the European Commission, Directorate-General Economic and Financial Affairs Coordinated by Directorate-General Communication This document does not represent the point of view of the European Commission. The interpretations and opinions contained in it are solely those of the authors. THE GALLUP ORGANIZATION, page 2
Table of Contents Introduction... 4 Main findings... 5 1. Awareness of and experience with the euro... 7 1.1. Citizens awareness of the euro s introduction and of the euro area... 7 1.1.1. Awareness of current euro area countries... 7 1.1.2. Expected date of the euro s adoption... 8 1.1.3. Can new Member States choose whether or not to adopt the euro?... 10 1.1.4. Knowledge of euro banknotes... 11 1.1.5. Familiarity with the design of euro coins... 13 1.2. Experience with euro cash... 15 1.2.1. Euro banknotes... 15 1.2.2. Euro coins... 16 1.3. Where do people use the euro?... 17 1.4. Socio-demographic segments: awareness and experience of the euro... 20 2. Informing citizens about the euro... 21 2.1. Level, channels and content of information... 21 2.1.1. Self-perceived level of information... 21 2.1.2. Scheduling information... 23 2.1.3. Trusted distributors of information on the euro... 24 2.1.4. Preferred channels of information... 26 2.1.5. Most favoured topics of information campaigns... 28 2.1.6. Main activities and events essential for an information campaign... 30 3. The euro: perceptions and support for its introduction... 31 3.1. Consequences of the euro s introduction... 31 3.1.1. Consequences at the national level... 31 3.1.2. Consequences at the personal level... 33 3.2. Support for the single currency... 36 3.2.1. Opinions within the respondents social environment... 36 3.2.2. Support for replacing the national currency by the euro... 37 3.2.3. The most desired timeframe for the euro s adoption... 38 3.2.4. Status of the euro as an international currency... 3.3. Analysis by demographic variables... 42 4. Consequences of adopting the euro... 43 4.1. Political and economical consequences of introducing the euro... 4.1.1. Will the changeover to the euro increase prices?... 4.1.2. Favourable political and economic consequences of the euro... 46 4.1.3. The euro as an ingredient in European identity... 49 4.2. Practical consequences of the euro changeover... 51 4.3. Fears regarding the introduction of the euro... 53 4.3.1. Fear of abuses and cheating on prices during the changeover... 53 4.3.2. Loss of national identity due to adoption of the euro... 55 4.3.3. Expected difficulties due to the euro s introduction... 56 4.3.4. Loss of control over a nation s economic policy... 58 4.4. Fears related to the euro from a socio-demographic perspective... 59 Annex tables... 61 Survey details... 90 Survey questionnaire... 92 page 3
Introduction The EU s Member States can adopt the common currency, the euro, once they have fulfilled the criteria defined in the Maastricht Treaty. There is no common strategy or fixed timetable with regard to the introduction of the euro in each of the new Member States, but the Treaty requires them to join the euro area in the future. Considering the countries from the 2004 and 2007 rounds of EU enlargement, Slovenia, Cyprus and Malta have already joined the euro area in 2007 and 2008, and Slovakia followed in January 2009. Before adopting the euro, a country must comply with the Maastricht criteria and have been a member of the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II) for a minimum of two years. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are members of the ERMII, whereas Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania have not yet joined. Concerning the introduction of the euro in the new EU Member States, the European Commission is keeping track of general opinions, the levels of knowledge and information and the familiarity with the single currency among citizens of the respective countries. The objective of this survey is to identify and further track citizens perceptions in the new Member States not yet in the euro area (hereafter described as the NMS8 1 ), regarding the future introduction of the common currency. The main themes of this report are the: levels of knowledge and experience of the euro among citizens in the NMS8 feelings as to whether citizens are informed and their most favoured information channels perceptions about the single currency expectations and fears concerning the adoption of the euro. This report sums up the main attitudes towards the euro in the NMS8, and describes the climate of opinion in each of the countries due to adopt the common currency in the coming years. It should be noted that average perceptions might change because of the different composition of the samples in comparison to previous waves: as of 2009, Slovakia was dropped from the surveys, Malta and Cyprus in 2008 and Slovenia in 2007. In addition, Bulgaria and Romania joined the surveys as of autumn 2007. This study is the eighth of its kind, following earlier Flash Eurobarometer surveys in the period 2004 2008. The present questionnaire is fully comparable to those of 2006-2008. Please note that the analysis always provides results for the relevant NMS of the time. In the current wave, the NMS average does not include Cyprus and Malta, Slovenia, Slovakia of the 12 countries that joined the EU since 2004. The survey s fieldwork was carried out between 5 and 9 May 2009. Over 8,000 randomly selected residents aged 15 and above were interviewed in the eight new EU Member States not yet using the euro as their legal tender (the NMS8). 1 Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. page 4
Main findings Familiarity with the euro Citizens in those new Member States yet to join the euro area (the NMS8) are more familiar with euro banknotes than with euro coins: o 82% of respondents have seen euro banknotes and 74% have seen euro coins; 55% have already used banknotes and 48% have used coins. o Just over half of NMS8 citizens (52%) were correct in knowing that the design of the banknotes is uniform throughout the euro area; only a third of citizens (34%) knew that coins have designs that vary from country to country. The majority of citizens in the NMS8 did not feel well informed about the euro (57%), while a significant minority felt well informed (42%). The Czechs gave the most positive selfassessment of their knowledge about the euro ( well informed : 56%); Latvians and Bulgarians, in particular, said they were poorly informed ( not well informed : 66%). Information and information channels A majority of NMS8 citizens who did not feel well informed would like to have information about the introduction of the euro as soon as possible or at least a few years before the changeover (59%). National central banks and the European Institutions remained the most trustworthy sources of information regarding the euro and issues related to the changeover (trusted by, respectively, 76% and 69% of citizens). However, commercial banks have relinquished third place (that they held in May 2008) to government and national and regional authorities (48%). In every country, the national central bank is the prime source of information that citizens would turn to in regard to the changeover to the euro; the European Institutions figure in the top three in all NMS8 countries. The topic that most people wanted to see in an information campaign was the value of the euro in the national currency (considered essential by 93% of citizens). All of the topics suggested for inclusion in the euro information campaign were considered as essential by large majorities (78% and over). Among information campaign actions, the dual display of prices was seen to be the most essential; both in shops (87%) and on utility bills (e.g. receipts, 81%). Joining the euro area Two-thirds of NMS8 citizens would like to have the euro as their country s currency sooner rather than later (65%; as soon as possible - 28%; after a certain time - 37%). While the share of those who would like their country to join the euro area as soon as possible has only increased slightly overall since 2008 (+2 percentage points), in Hungary the support for an immediate adoption of the euro has increased tremendously (+18 points). A relative majority of respondents expected their country to join the euro area shortly, but not immediately. Estonians, Latvians and Bulgarians were the ones most expecting that their country would have adopted the euro by 2012; Hungarians, Czechs and Romanians tended to believe this would not happen before 2015. Despite a widespread belief in the NMS8 that countries were free to choose whether or not they joined the euro area (62%), hardly anyone thought that their country would never adopt the euro (just 2%). page 5
Perceptions of and support for the euro A majority of NMS8 citizens (55%) believed that the euro s adoption would have positive consequences for their countries, while slightly fewer citizens expected the introduction of the euro to have positive consequences for themselves (49%). A third of citizens (32%) expected negative consequences at a national level, and slightly more (%) expected a negative impact at a personal level. Despite more people in the NMS8 reporting a positive climate of opinion regarding the introduction of the euro in their country, some scepticism remained. Almost half of NMS8 citizens (47%) believed that most people they knew were supportive of their country adopting the euro, while over a third (%) said that the climate in their country was rather opposed to the euro s introduction. Half of respondents in the NMS8 would be happy if the euro would replace their national currency (52%), whereas just over a third (36%) would be unhappy about this. The results indicate that the effects of the financial crisis were particularly sensitive at a country level: while within the NMS8 on average, the trend of an increasingly positive attitude towards the introduction of the euro over the past years was neither slowed down nor accelerated, in some countries (namely Hungary and Poland) there has been a significant improvement in support for the single currency s introduction. In other countries, such as Latvia, however, attitudes towards the euro s introduction have worsened. Expectations and fears regarding the euro More than half of NMS8 citizens agreed that introducing the euro in their country would make them feel more European (53%), while 38% did not feel that way. A notable majority of respondents agreed with all statements concerning the positive effects of introducing the euro e.g. it will be more convenient for those who travel to other EU countries (90%); will make it easier to shop in other countries that use the euro (87%), etc. There was, however, one exception, that being: it offers protection from the effects of an international crisis (just %; essentially unchanged since the 45% measured in the last survey). Looking at the various economic and political effects of the euro s introduction, 63% of respondents agreed that an enlargement of the euro area by the accession of their country would improve Europe s global significance and 55% of citizens agreed that the euro would ensure low inflation rates (although, many are afraid of the price hikes around the changeover, see below). People were more sceptical about whether a change to the euro would improve employment and growth: only % agreed with this statement. The most widespread fear among NMS8 citizens regarding the introduction of the euro was the arrival of abuses and cheating on prices during the changeover (72% agreed that this is a likely side-effect of the introduction). Most people said they were not worrying about personal inconveniences that would be caused by the changeover (58% disagreed), a loss of the country s control of economic policy (54% disagreed) or that adopting the euro could have a negative effect on their country s identity (56% disagreed). Two-thirds of respondents (65%) believed that the euro would cause prices to increase just after its introduction, as opposed to 23% believing that the euro would contribute to price stability. Only a few citizens expected that the introduction of the euro would have no impact on prices shortly after it has been introduced (5%). page 6
1. Awareness of and experience with the euro The first chapter looks at respondents awareness of the euro and their familiarity with the currency. 1.1. Citizens awareness of the euro s introduction and of the euro area 1.1.1. Awareness of current euro area countries When asked about the number of countries already in the euro area, roughly one in three respondents (29%) knew the correct answer: 16. The same number thought that 13 countries have introduced the common currency, and 14% believed it was six countries. Only four percent thought that all Member States of the EU have already introduced the euro. Nearly a quarter of respondents didn t know how many countries have the euro as their currency (24%). These findings are similar to those of the last survey wave in May 2008. 2 Number of current euro area countries 6 13 (12) 16 (15) 27 (25) DK/NA %MNS8 14 29 29 4 24 %NMS9 13 31 28 4 25 %NMS11 15 29 27 4 25 %NMS11 18 28 26 3 25 %NMS10 21 20 3 17 %NMS10 23 38 19 3 17 09/2005 %NMS10 18 38 16 2 26 09/2004 %NMS10 15 16 2 28 Q5. According to you, how many EU countries have already introduced the euro? (figures in parentheses were asked in previous surveys) Estonian, Latvian, Czech and Hungarian respondents were the ones most often correctly stating the correct number of EU Member States having the euro as their currency (37%-%). On the other hand, only one fifth of Romanians (21%) and a quarter of Bulgarians (24%) gave the right answer. Estonia, Bulgaria and Romania were the only countries where fewer respondents knew the right number compared to the previous survey wave. While in Estonia, the decrease was fairly minor, (-2 percentage points), it was slightly more noticeable in Romania (-3 percentage points) and in Bulgaria (-4 percentage points). In all of the other surveyed countries, the number of respondents giving the right answer has increased, particularly in Latvia (+11 percentage points). 2 Even if the numbers of countries provided as answering cateogries were different, this question is comparable to the previous wave as the proportion of differences in the numbers has remained similar. page 7
Number of current euro area countries (% correct answers, 16 in 2009 and 15 in 2008) 100 90 %NMS9 %NMS8 80 70 60 30 20 28 29 38 37 37 31 27 30 32 26 28 28 24 24 21 10 0 NMS8/NMS9 EE LV CZ HU LT PL BG RO Q5. According to you, how many EU countries have already introduced the euro? % of correct answers, by country 1.1.2. Expected date of the euro s adoption A relative majority of respondents expected their country to join the euro area shortly, but not immediately. Indeed, slightly more than 4 in 10 respondents thought their country would join the EU in 2011/2012, and nearly 2 in 10 in 2013/2014 (17%). Only 8% thought the accession was immediate (2009/2010) and 16% expected it to be in 2015 or later. Not more than a handful of respondents thought the euro would never be adopted in their country (2%). About one in seven (15%) said they didn t know or gave no answer. Estonians (60%), Latvians (58%) and Bulgarians (51%) were most positive that their country would have adopted the euro by 2012, and 16% of Bulgarians expected the country would join the euro in 2010 at the latest. That view was only shared by 4% of Polish respondents. The latter were, however, the most likely to expect the euro to be adopted in 2011 or 2012 a majority voiced that conviction (55%). Romanians were fewest to think that their accession to the euro area would happen during this timeframe (27%). The Romanians, Hungarians and Czechs were the most pessimistic about their country joining the euro area. A quarter of Romanians expected this to happen in 2013 or 2014, and roughly another fifth (18%) in 2015 or later. Roughly one in six Czechs and Hungarians, 17% and 16% respectively, expected the accession in 2013 or 2014, and more than a quarter only foresaw it in 2015 or later (26% and 27%, respectively). The Bulgarians were the ones most frequently saying they didn t know about the possible accession date of their country (32%); Hungarians were the least likely not to answer (9%). page 8
Expected date of the euro s adoption 2009-2010 2011-2012 2013-2014 2015 or later Never DK/NA 100 90 80 70 60 15 2 16 17 32 2 7 8 10 16 3 12 3 10 19 12 12 22 1 3 26 15 15 17 19 2 18 26 9 12 1 3 12 27 14 16 30 20 42 48 34 32 27 55 10 0 16 12 8 12 12 11 8 7 4 NMS8 BG LV EE LT CZ RO HU PL Q5ter. When, in which year do you think the euro will be introduced in [ COUNTRY]? % by country Comparing the current results with those of the previous survey wave, we can see a continuing trend: more and more respondents expect a later accession date for their countries. The most drastic drop in numbers for those expecting an immediate accession was observed in Bulgaria: while in May 2008, 42% expected the country to join the euro area in 2009/2010, this number dropped to 16% in April 2009 - a decrease of 26 percentage points. On the other hand, % of Bulgarians now expect the date of entry to be 2011-2012 (an increase of 16 points), and 15% think it will be 2013 or later (+ 6 points). Countries that followed Bulgaria with a drop in the number of respondents expecting the adoption of the euro in 2009/10 were Lithuania, Latvia and Romania. In Lithuania, the number dropped from 28% to 12% (-16 percentage points), in Latvia from 26% to 12% (-14 points), and in Romania from 21% to 8% (-13 points). In all of these countries, we saw a corresponding increase in the number of respondents who expect a later date for the euro s adoption in their country. Romanians were the most pessimistic, as the share of respondents who expected the euro to be the country s currency in 2011/12 increased only slightly (+4 percentage points), while the number of those who expected the accession to the euro to be at a later date (2013/14) increased significantly from 11% to 26% (+15 points). The Czech Republic had the greatest increase in the number of respondents expecting the adoption of the euro in 2015 or later (+7 percentage points, from 19% in 2008 to 26% in 2009). Latvia and Estonia, however, actually experienced a small decrease of respondents expecting such a date: in Latvia, the share of those opting for 2015 or later decreased from 16% to 12% (-4 percentage points) and in Estonia from 13% to 10% (-3 points). page 9
Flash EB N o 270 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States Expected date of the euro s adoption 34 27 152 Up till 2008 2009-2010 2011-2012 2013-2014 2015 or later Never CZECH REPUBLIC ESTONIA HUNGARY LATVIA 8 02 1 03 2 9 1 11 16 15 5 14 1 13 10 4 17 17 12 2 19 26 10 19 24 27 7 6 16 5 12 21 21 10 9 12 15 9 13 29 16 31 17 31 32 31 28 58 71 48 51 34 46 32 30 31 31 22 31 30 19 21 18 12 8 11 7 12 3 7 4 2 1 7 1 1 0 0 2 29 51 31 7 7 10 4 5 19 24 38 43 36 13 9 16 12 32 26 0 12 19 12 01 10 72 LITHUANIA 0 5 1 5 6 3 4 14 17 18 8 29 47 48 36 28 4 4 15 15 34 12 POLAND 8 2 10 12 10 11 12 2 5 18 4 7 19 14 23 49 55 30 26 15 13 15 4 1 0 4 BULGARIA 5 31 5 1 13 4 7 9 8 19 53 42 16 8 5 0 ROMANIA 8 10 16 18 11 8 11 16 19 26 23 30 31 27 21 8 8 1 8 Q5ter. When, in which year do you think the euro will be introduced in [COUNTRY]? % by country 1.1.3. Can new Member States choose whether or not to adopt the euro? Even if the Accession Treaty obliges all of the NMS to join the euro area, the majority of the surveyed countries citizens believe that their nation has the choice of adopting the euro as its currency or not. Indeed, more than 6 in 10 respondents (62%) hold this opinion and 3 in 10 (29%) have an opposite view. Can Member States choose whether or not to adopt the euro? Yes No DK/NA %NMS8 62 29 9 %NMS9 65 27 8 %NMS11 62 29 8 %NMS11 64 28 8 %NMS10 67 26 7 %NMS10 69 26 5 09/2005 %NMS10 58 30 11 09/2004 %NMS10 57 33 10 Q5bis. Can [COUNTRY]choose whether or not to introduce the euro? page 10
Awareness of that legal obligation was the highest in Hungary and Latvia, where half of the respondents gave the correct answer (both 51%). On the other hand, only one in six in Poland and one in four in Romania were aware of this (17% and 23%, respectively). While, on average, the knowledge on this topic has increased only slightly since May 2008 (29% vs. 27% in 2008), the Hungarian respondents were particularly well informed about the obligatory adoption of the euro: the share of respondents giving the right answer has increased 20 percentage points from 31% in 2008 to 51%. In Latvia, the increase was not so great but still significant, (+9 percentage points from 42% to 51%). In Poland, Lithuania (+2 points) and the Czech Republic (+4 points) slightly more respondents gave the correct answer in this wave; Bulgaria and Estonia, though, witnessed a decrease in the knowledge about the necessity for a country to adopt the euro. This decrease was particularly noticeable in Estonia (-10 percentage points, from 42% to 32%). Can Member States choose whether or not to adopt the euro? % of correct ( NO ) answers 100 90 %NMS9 %NMS8 80 70 60 30 20 27 29 31 51 51 42 43 38 36 42 32 25 23 15 17 10 0 NMS8/NMS9 HU LV CZ BG LT EE RO PL Q5bis. Can (OUR COUNTRY) choose whether or not to introduce the euro? % of correct answers (NO), by country 1.1.4. Knowledge of euro banknotes Half of the respondents in the NMS8 were correctly aware that euro banknotes look exactly the same in all Member States; this figure has not changed since 2007 (-2 percentage points compared to the last measurement wave). About 3 in 10 citizens (29%) thought that euro banknotes have partly different designs from country to country, while 21% of respondents either did not know the answer or did not reply. page 11
Familiarity with the design of euro banknotes: the euro banknotes look exactly the same in all countries that use the euro %NMS8 %NMS9 52 %NMS11 49 %NMS11 %NMS10 45 %NMS10 46 09/2005 %NMS10 56 09/2004 %NMS10 59 2006-2009: Q3. And what do you think, which of the following statements is correct? The euro banknotes look exactly the same in all countries / have partly different designs from country to country/ that use the euro 2004-2005: Q15. According to you, do the euro banknotes look the same in all countries of the euro area? Yes /No /DK/NA In most of the NMS8 countries, respondents who gave the correct answer outnumbered those who gave a wrong answer. The knowledge about the euro banknotes design was particularly high among Romanians (71%), followed by Czechs (60%) and Lithuanians (57%). In Poland (%), Hungary and Bulgaria (both 37%) however, only approximately 4 in 10 respondents answered that the euro banknotes looked the same across all countries of the euro area. Across the NMS8 countries, a significant number of respondents didn t know what to answer or gave no answer. Such a non-response was particularly high in Bulgaria, where 34% gave no answer, followed by Poland (24%), Lithuania (23%) and Estonia (22%). 100 Familiarity with the design of euro: euro banknotes look exactly the same in all countries of the euro area 90 %NMS9 %NMS8 80 70 68 71 60 52 53 60 47 57 46 53 53 48 49 37 38 37 30 20 10 0 NMS8/NMS9 RO CZ LT LV EE PL HU BG Q3. What do you think, which of the following statements is correct? % by country page 12
Compared to the last wave, respondents were less likely to know that banknotes have exactly the same design in all countries (% vs. 52%). The evolution in the different countries, however, was split: in half of the countries, more respondents gave the right answer, and in the other half, fewer respondents did so. The increase in survey participants being informed about the design of the euro banknotes was particularly high in Lithuania (+10 percentage points, from 47% to 57%), while a decrease was most pronounced in Hungary (-12 points, from 49% to 37%). 1.1.5. Familiarity with the design of euro coins In contrast to respondents familiarity with the design of euro banknotes, fewer respondents provided the correct answer concerning euro coins. While half of the NMS8 citizens (%) were aware that the banknotes look exactly the same, only one-third of citizens (34%) were aware that the euro coins have somewhat different designs from country to country. However, slightly more respondents gave the correct answer in 2009 compared to 2008 (+3 percentage points). Just over 4 in 10 (42%) of NMS8 citizens incorrectly believed that all euro coins look exactly the same. Also here, a substantial share of respondents (23%) did not answer this question. Familiarity with the design of euro coins: the euro coins have partly different designs from country to country %NMS8 34 %NMS9 31 %NMS11 33 %NMS11 31 %NMS10 37 %NMS10 37 09/2005 %NMS10 28 09/2004 %NMS10 30 2006-2009: Q4. And what do you think, which of the following statements is correct? The euro coins look exactly the same in all countries- / have partly different designs from country to country/ that use the euro 2004-2005: Q16. According to you, do the euro coins look the same in all countries of the euro area? Yes /No /DK/NA Apart from Lithuania and Estonia, the share of respondents giving the right answer has increased since the last wave (between +1 percentage point in Romania and Bulgaria and 10 points in Hungary). The decrease in correct answers was the most pronounced in Lithuania, where there was a drop of eight percentage points (from 43% in 2008 to %). While the share of citizens not knowing the answer or not responding to this question was high across all NMS8 countries (between 9% in the Czech Republic and 27% in Lithuania), the Bulgarians stood out again with 4 in 10 respondents not answering the question (%). page 13
COINS HAVE A PARTLY DIFFERENT DESIGN Flash EB N o 270 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States Familiarity with the design of euro: the euro coins have partly different designs from country to country 100 90 80 %NMS9 %NMS8 70 60 30 31 34 56 51 37 30 38 43 33 34 20 10 14 15 0 NMS8/NMS9 EE HU LV CZ PL LT BG RO Q4. What do you think, which of the following statements is correct? % by country As in the previous surveys, Estonia was the only country where respondents were more (even if only slightly) likely to give the right answer concerning both euro banknotes (%) and coins (51%). In most countries, respondents were either more informed about the design of coins, e.g. Hungary (%) or banknotes, e.g. the Czech Republic (60%), Lithuania (57%) and Latvia (53%). The differences in knowledge were particularly noticeable in Romania, where respondents were the most frequently familiar with the design of banknotes (75%), while they were the least familiar with the coins (15%). A totally opposite observation can be made for Hungarians: half of the respondents said they were informed about the varying design of coins, but only 37% gave the correct answer concerning banknotes. The design of the euro money 60 HU EE LV PL 30 BG 20 LT CZ Bulgarians were the least informed about the design of the euro: only approximately a third gave the right answer concerning banknotes (37%) and coins (34%); furthermore, a third (34%) gave no response concerning the banknotes and % did not respond on the question of the coins. Concerning both types of money, the Czechs stood out with a low share of respondents who didn t know what to answer (7% banknotes, 9% coins). 10 RO 0 20 30 60 70 80 BANKNOTES LOOK EXACTLY THE SAME Q3-Q4. What do you think, which of the following statements is correct? % by country page 14
1.2. Experience with euro cash 1.2.1. Euro banknotes Just as in May 2008, 82% of respondents in the surveyed countries indicated that they have seen euro banknotes. The number of those who have already used the euro has slightly increased by two percentage points from 53% in 2008 to 55% in 2009. Seen and used euro banknotes Seen Used %NMS8 55 82 %NMS9 53 82 %NMS11 79 %NMS11 48 77 %NMS10 45 77 %NMS10 45 80 Q1a. Have you already seen euro banknotes? Q2a. Have you already used euro banknotes? %, all respondents Citizens in Estonia and Romania were the most familiar with euros. Indeed, in both countries, nearly 9 in 10 respondents (88% and 87%, respectively) said they have seen euros and around two-thirds of respondents have actually used them (Romania: 68%, Estonia: 63%). In Poland, as well, an overwhelming majority of 85% have seen euro banknotes, but only half of respondents said they have used them. Together with Romania and Estonia, usage of the euro was the most common in the Czech Republic (77%). On the other hand, Bulgarians and Lithuanians remained the least likely to have seen or used euro banknotes. In Bulgaria, three-quarters (74%) of citizens said they have seen, and 46% used, euro banknotes; in Lithuania these numbers were, respectively, 75% and %. The most significant increases have occurred in Estonia: familiarity with the euro has increased by nine percentage points, from 79% to 88%, and usage has increased by 11percentage points, from 52% to 63%. In the Czech Republic, however, the share of those who said they have seen and/or used euros has dropped 3, from 86% to 77% and from 66% to 63%, respectively. In Hungary, the share of respondents who have seen euros has dropped five percentage points, from 79% to 74%, while the number of those who have used euros has slightly increased from 47% to 49%. 3 While any decrease in such a measure might seem illogical (as the question inquires about any past use of the currency and therefore one might expect an ever-increasing figure for such an indicator), a certain memory effect plays a role when such questions are answered. It might be the case that someone still remembers that they used the euro during last years vacation, but they would no longer remember such an event three years later. page 15
Flash EB N o 270 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States In the other countries, the number of those who have seen and/or used euros either remained stable or increased slightly by about 1-3 percentage points (Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, and Bulgaria), while in Latvia the increase in usage was more pronounced (+7 percentage points from 47% to 54%). Seen and used euro banknotes Seen Used 83 CZECH REPUBLIC ESTONIA HUNGARY 83 83 80 86 77 77 82 79 82 79 88 71 69 79 77 79 74 62 56 62 59 66 63 51 46 53 52 63 42 48 46 47 49 74 LITHUANIA LATVIA POLAND 74 73 75 75 75 77 69 71 75 78 79 82 78 74 82 84 85 38 42 42 37 48 47 54 42 48 47 BULGARIA 66 71 72 74 ROMANIA 83 79 85 87 37 46 46 63 57 67 68 Q1a. Have you already seen euro banknotes? Q2a. Have you already used euro banknotes? % all respondents, by country 1.2.2. Euro coins Generally, euro coins are less known and less widely used than euro banknotes in the NMS8. Just as in May 2008, three-quarters (74%) of respondents said they have seen euro coins, while 48% have actually used them (+1 percentage point). Seen and used euro coins Seen Used %NMS8 %NMS9 %NMS11 48 47 72 74 74 %NMS11 %NMS10 68 70 %NMS10 75 Q1b. Have you already seen euro coins? Q2b. Have you already used euro coins? % all respondents page 16
Flash EB N o 270 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States Familiarity with the euro coins was the highest in Estonia (83%) and Poland (79%), where approximately 8 in 10 respondents said they have seen euro coins. In Lithuania (63%), Latvia and Bulgaria (both 66%), on the other hand, approximately two-thirds of respondents said they have already seen euro coins. Usage of euro coins was most common in the Czech Republic (61%) and Estonia (59%); it was the least widespread in Lithuania (37%), Bulgaria (%) and Latvia (%). In half of the surveyed NMS8 countries - Latvia, Poland, Bulgaria and Romania-, both familiarity and usage of euro coins has increased slightly (between +1 and +3 percentage points since May 2008). The increase was the greatest in Estonia, however, where familiarity with, and usage of, euro coins increased by +12 percentage points (from 71% to 83%, and from 47% to 59%, respectively). Both in Hungary and Lithuania, the share of respondents who said they have seen euro coins decreased slightly, while the usage of coins has increased. In Lithuania, the share of respondents who said they have used euro coins has decreased by four percentage points, from 67% to 63%, and in Hungary by two percentage points (from 75% to 73%), while the share of those who have seen them has increased from 36% to 37% and from 46% to 48%, respectively. In the Czech Republic, fewer respondents in the current wave have both seen the euro coins (76% from 81%, -5 percentage points) and used them (61% from 65%, -4 points). Seen and used euro coins Seen Used 78 CZECH REPUBLIC ESTONIA HUNGARY 78 80 80 81 76 73 76 74 72 71 83 70 77 74 75 63 73 58 54 61 60 65 61 46 46 46 47 59 37 47 45 46 48 61 LITHUANIA LATVIA POLAND 77 78 66 67 59 57 63 63 61 61 63 66 70 68 56 78 79 29 28 31 36 37 32 27 31 36 37 45 46 47 BULGARIA 62 63 56 66 ROMANIA 63 64 69 69 29 33 43 45 48 Q1b. Have you already seen euro coins? Q2b. Have you already used euro coins? % all respondents, by country 1.3. Where do people use the euro? Most people who have used the euro have only used it abroad. Just as in May 2008, half of the respondents in the NMS8 said they have only used euro banknotes abroad. Euro coins were even more likely than banknotes to have only been used only in a foreign country: 60% (no change) of respondents said they have done so. Similar proportions of respondents said they have used euro page 17
banknotes and coins in both their country and abroad (banknotes: 25%, no change; coins: 24%, +1 point). Respondents use of banknotes only in their home country was more widespread (25%, +1 point) than the usage of coins limited to their home country s territory (15%, -1 point). Where do people use the euro...? Banknotes Coins %NMS8 25 25 %NMS8 15 60 24 %NMS9 24 25 %NMS9 16 60 23 %NMS11 24 51 24 %NMS11 16 61 23 %NMS11 29 21 %NMS11 19 61 19 %NMS10 15 66 20 %NMS10 11 70 19 %NMS10 13 67 20 %NMS10 9 71 19 In [country] Abroad In [country] and abroad Q2bis. /Q2ter. You said you already used euro banknotes/coins. Was it..? Base: those, who have already used euro banknotes/coins Looking more closely at the country-level results in the NMS8, we see considerable differences in the usage of the euro banknotes and coins between individual countries. In Estonia, the Czech Republic and Hungary, a large majority of respondents have only used euro coins and banknotes in a foreign country and a minority have used them in their home country. Indeed, in Estonia nearly 9 in 10 respondents have only used euro banknotes abroad (87%, + 6 percentage points); high proportions were also seen in the Czech Republic 82% (no change), and in Hungary (74%, + 2 points). As for using euros at home as well, the numbers were 14% in Estonia (-5 percentage points), 18% in the Czech Republic (+1 point) and 26% in Hungary (-1 point). In Latvia and Poland, respondents were also more likely to have only used euro banknotes abroad and not in their home country, but the gap in the number of respondents who have used them abroad and in their home country was smaller. Roughly 6 in 10 Polish respondents (61%, +5 percentage points) and 56% of Latvian respondents (-3 points) have only used euro banknotes abroad, while approximately 4 in 10 have also used them in their home country (only or as well) (Poland: %, -4 points, Latvia 43%, +2 points). In Lithuania, the share of respondents who have only used them abroad decreased by eight percentage points, while the proportion having used them at home and abroad increased by the same number of percentage points making them equal in the current wave (both %). Approximately two-thirds of respondents in those countries have only used euro coins abroad, while around one-third have also used them in their home country (Lithuania: 62% vs. 38%, Latvia 66% vs. 34%, Poland 68% vs. 32%). In Bulgaria and Romania, however, respondents were more likely to have used both euro banknotes and coins in their home country as well as abroad rather than having just used them abroad. This was particularly the case in Romania, where nearly 9 in 10 respondents said they have used euro banknotes also in their home country (88%, +2 points) and 73% said they have done the same concerning euro coins; 1 in 10 respondents have only paid with euro banknotes abroad (11%, -3 percentage points) and 24% have used euro coins (-2 points). page 18
9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 Flash EB N o 270 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States Where do people use the euro banknotes? Abroad only In COUNTRY (as well) 86 14 CZECH REPUBLIC ESTONIA HUNGARY 71 77 77 74 77 78 81 87 74 76 69 76 76 70 86 83 80 82 82 82 82 29 16 21 25 14 17 18 17 18 23 23 23 21 26 32 29 19 24 23 23 14 72 27 74 26 LITHUANIA LATVIA POLAND 61 61 64 58 58 51 59 47 38 42 42 36 52 48 53 47 55 57 43 56 61 59 56 43 52 48 55 45 57 43 56 56 57 43 56 43 61 BULGARIA ROMANIA 63 69 61 60 87 87 86 88 38 30 38 13 13 14 11 Q2bis. You said you already used euro banknotes. Was it..? Base: those, who have already used euro banknotes, % by country Where do people use the euro coins? 86 12 CZECH REPUBLIC ESTONIA HUNGARY 78 78 71 76 75 73 89 91 82 83 84 82 82 84 83 86 87 74 79 79 76 26 17 17 15 18 11 17 23 15 21 18 17 22 28 21 23 20 26 13 13 9 72 27 76 24 57 51 LITHUANIA LATVIA POLAND 70 76 76 74 64 58 62 66 70 64 66 66 56 59 61 62 65 65 52 63 68 42 48 30 23 23 36 42 38 33 29 36 33 26 34 47 49 38 38 36 32 BULGARIA ROMANIA 55 59 49 55 74 74 73 73 49 43 25 25 26 24 Q2ter. You said you already used euro coins. Was it..? Base: those, who have already used euro coins, % by country page 19
1.4. Socio-demographic segments: awareness and experience of the euro Some clear patterns appear when analysing the awareness of - and experience with - the euro according to different socio-demographic groups. With some deviations, these patterns have been quite stable throughout the various waves of the survey. In general, men, younger generations, highly-educated citizens and those who are still in the educational system, the self-employed, employees and people from large cities have more experience and a better knowledge of the euro than women, the older respondents (aged 55+), those with less education, those not working, manual workers and respondents from rural areas. Regarding those respondents who have seen and used euro banknotes and coins, this patterns fits perfectly, despite slight variations dependent on their age: while the 15- year-old respondents are the ones the most likely to have seen both euro banknotes and coins, those aged 25- were the most likely to have used both euro banknotes and coins. A similar pattern was observed concerning the knowledge that euro coins have partially different designs from country to country men, the 25- year-olds, those with high levels of education, people from metropolitan zones and the self-employed and employees were the ones most informed about this aspect of the currency. Concerning banknotes, however, men were more often providing the incorrect answer that banknotes have partially different designs (37% vs. 25% of women); respondents in rural areas and manual workers were more knowledgeable on that point then their respective counterparts. However, on the same issue, the level of knowledge increased with level of education and it was more symptomatic of the younger (particularly the 15-24 year olds: 60%) respondents than the older ones (e.g. 55+: %). Furthermore, regarding questions about the number of countries that have already joined the euro area - the socio-demographic categories most likely to give a correct response were: men (34%), the youngest generation (the 15-24 year-olds: 36%), those from metropolitan zones (31%) and urban areas (30%), those with the highest level of education (who left school after the age of 19: 32%) and employees and manual workers (both 33%). Respondents from metropolitan zones, those with high levels of education and both the 15-24 year olds and the -54 year olds were the most likely to be aware of the possibility of choice with regard to the adoption of the common currency. A demographic breakdown for responses to each question in this survey is included in the annex tables attached to this report. Regarding the aforementioned questions, please see annex tables 1-10. page 20
2. Informing citizens about the euro This chapter analyses the degree to which NMS8 citizens feel informed about the euro, their preferred - and most used - information channels, the kind of information they would like to have and the desired timing for the distribution of such information. 2.1. Level, channels and content of information 2.1.1. Self-perceived level of information Overall in the NMS8, 8% believed that they are very well informed about the euro and another 34% said they are rather well informed. This result is surprisingly- slightly better than in past surveys even though no country is conducting an active information campaign. On the other hand, 14% said they are not at all well informed about the euro. The relative majority of citizens in the NMS8 thought that they are not very well informed about the euro (43%). Self-perceived euro-related knowledge has slightly increased since May 2008: fewer citizens (59% vs. 57%, +2 percentage points ) now said that they are not very well informed or not at all well informed, while the share of those who said they are very well or rather well informed has increased by +3 percentage points (from % to 42%). Evolution of self-perceived information level regarding the euro, % Very well informed Rather well informed Not very well informed Not at all well informed DK/NA %NMS8 8 34 43 14 1 %NMS9 6 33 42 17 1 %NMS11 7 34 16 2 %NMS11 5 32 17 2 %NMS10 5 42 16 2 %NMS10 5 32 43 18 2 09/2005 %NMS10 3 29 51 16 1 09/2004 %NMS10 3 31 48 16 2 Q6. To what extent do you feel informed about the euro? Do you feel : Apart from the Czech Republic, respondents who did not feel well informed outnumbered those who felt well informed across the NMS8 countries. The feeling of being poorly informed was particularly widespread in Bulgaria and Latvia, where twothirds of respondents said they are not very well - or not at all - informed (66%, + 6 percentage points in Bulgaria, +1 point in Latvia), and only one-third of respondents felt they had the impression of having a sound knowledge about the euro (33%, -6 percentage points; 32%, -2 points, respectively). In Romania and Estonia, the gap of those feeling and not feeling - informed was smaller. Just under half (47%) of Romanian respondents felt either quite well or very well informed (+5 percentage page 21
9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 9/2004 9/2005 4/2006 9/2006 4/2007 9/2007 5/2009 Flash EB N o 270 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States points), as did 45% of Estonians (+8 points), while 52% (-4 points) and 54% (-8 points) respectively in those countries did not feel informed. The Czech Republic was the only country where more respondents felt well informed than poorly or not informed: 56% (+6 percentage points) said they were quite well or very well informed, and only 42% said they are not very well or not at all informed (-6 points). Estonia was the country where the increase of self-perceived knowledge about the euro has increased most substantially: +8 percentage points. In half of the remaining NMS8 countries, the number of respondents feeling well informed has increased by five or six percentage points (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania); their number has decreased, however, in Lithuania (-5 percentage points), Latvia (-2 points) and Bulgaria (-6 points). Evolution of self-perceived information level regarding the euro, % % of quite well and very well-informed % not very well and not at all informed CZECH REPUBLIC ESTONIA HUNGARY 63 67 49 49 55 56 68 65 63 62 62 57 62 54 65 62 66 65 56 60 62 57 33 31 48 48 48 43 48 42 30 34 36 36 37 37 37 45 34 36 34 37 43 68 69 LITHUANIA LATVIA POLAND 72 71 68 73 72 68 65 66 64 69 65 67 56 54 54 54 56 61 58 66 60 31 31 42 49 27 28 31 27 28 32 34 32 31 32 37 31 33 BULGARIA ROMANIA 68 68 60 66 59 56 56 52 31 31 33 43 42 47 Q6. To what extent do you feel informed about the euro? Do you feel : % by country Men, the -54 year-olds, those with higher levels of education and the self-employed were more likely to feel well informed than their counterparts in the respective socio-demographic categories (see annex table 12) page 22
2.1.2. Scheduling information Next, those respondents who said they did not feel well informed were asked when, i.e. at what stage of the process, they would like to have more information about the euro and its introduction. As in previous years, a majority of citizens lacking proper information in the (now) NMS8 would like to be informed about the introduction of the euro well in advance of the changeover. 4 Indeed, a majority of respondents would like to be informed as soon as possible or at least a few years before the introduction of the euro (59%). While the share of those who want to be informed as soon as possible has remained stable since May 2008 (37%), the number of those who want to be informed a few years before has decreased slightly by -3 percentage points (22% from 25%). The ratio of those who want to be informed a few months before has increased by +4 points (31% from 27%), and those who want information only a few weeks in advance has decreased by 1 point (5% from 6%). Desired timeframe for being informed about the euro As soon as possible A few years before A few months before A few weeks before DK/NA %NMS8 37 22 31 5 5 %NMS9 37 25 27 6 5 %NMS11 34 24 30 5 7 %NMS11 29 26 32 6 7 %NMS10 29 30 31 5 5 %NMS10 28 30 33 5 3 Q7. When would you like to be informed about the introduction of euro in [COUNTRY]? Base: who are not informed Polish respondents were the ones who most wanted to be informed as soon as possible about the introduction of the euro in their country (%, +5 percentage points), while Lithuanians and Hungarians were less eager for early information (23%, -1 point and +6 points, respectively). (23%, -1 point and +6 points, respectively). Hungarians, in fact, tended to say that being informed a few months ahead of accession was sufficient: approximately 4 in 10 felt this way. Together with Bulgarians, the Lithuanians and Hungarians were also the respondents who were most likely to be satisfied with being informed about the euro only a few weeks before its introduction (8%, +1 percentage point; 7%, +2 points; 7%: -2 points, respectively). Latvians, however, were those who most felt that being informed a few years before its introduction was ideal (%, but -5 percentage points compared to 2008). Bulgarians were the least likely to say they wanted information about the euro a few years before it was actually introduced (-1 point). 4 Due to the different national target dates, it is sometimes hard to compare what the different time perspectives mean, but generally, the selection of the as soon as possible and the a few years before categories in most countries suggest a rather immediate need for information on this matter page 23
Desired timeframe for being informed about the euro As soon as possible A few years before A few months before A few weeks before DK/NA 100 90 80 70 60 5 3 3 8 5 5 3 31 23 31 29 8 6 25 12 8 31 5 5 3 4 7 7 31 38 42 30 22 19 28 25 24 21 27 26 20 10 37 38 38 37 29 26 23 23 0 NMS8 PL EE CZ RO BG LV LT HU Q7. When would you like to be informed about the introduction of euro in [COUNTRY]? Base: who are not informed, % by country Men, the younger respondents (the 15- year-olds), those with a higher level of education, those living in metropolitan areas and the self-employed and manual workers, were most frequently saying that they wanted to have information on the topic as soon as possible. (See annex table 13). 2.1.3. Trusted distributors of information on the euro Trust is a key factor in the provision of information: people tend to differentiate between possible sources based on their assessments of how trustworthy such sources are. It is therefore essential to provide the necessary information through channels that are widely trusted in those countries planning to adopt the euro. Traditionally, as previous measurements have established, national central banks were seen to be the most trustworthy sources of information regarding the euro and issues related to the changeover. As in May 2008, the National Central Banks were seen as the most trusted distributor of information and campaigns (79%, -3 points). However, their share has slightly decreased by three percentage points. They are followed by the European Institutions, with 69% of citizens trusting them about eurorelated information ( 1 point), and government, national or regional authorities (48%, -1 point). Trusted distributors of information and campaigns National Central Bank 76 79 European Institutions Government, national or regional authorities 48 49 69 70 Commercial banks 53 Consumer associations 43 Local government Journalists Trade unions, professional organisations, etc N.A. 34 %NMS8 %NMS9 Q8. For each of the following institutions or groups, please tell me if you would trust information they provide on the changeover to the euro, or not? % of trust page 24