CAMBODIA SYSTEMATIC COUNTRY DIAGNOSTIC Public Engagement Nov Dec 2016
Contents Objectives of the Engagement Country Context Main research questions I. What are the challenges to sustaining economic growth? II. III. What can be done so that the benefits of economic growth are more widely shared? What can be done to improve environmental sustainability? Identifying priority areas for development Next Steps
Objectives of the Engagement
World Bank Group in Cambodia The current World Bank Group (WBG) support to Cambodia is guided by the Country Engagement Note (CEN) for 2016-2017. The focus areas of the CEN are: Improved Business Environment Enhanced Connectivity and Improved Competitiveness Improving Service Delivery Reducing Vulnerability Cross-Pillar Engagement: Setting Out WBG Medium Term Engagement
What is the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD)? The SCD is a study conducted by the WBG, based on empirical evidence, to identify key challenges and opportunities for poverty reduction and inclusive, shared growth and development in Cambodia (not limited to areas of WBG engagement).
Country Context
Country Context An overview over the past two decades of Cambodia: Economic Growth Status Very strong Evidence 3 rd in the world in 1994-2014, 7.7% growth Poverty reduction Status Very strong Human Development Status Moderate gains Evidence Extreme poverty declined from around 7 million in 2004 to 1.6 million in 2013 Evidence Cambodia ranks 143 out of 188 in the Human Development Index HDI increased from 0.386 to 0.555 since 1990
Country Context Distinguishing features of Cambodia s development: Civil conflict left the country s fragile social, human, institutional, and physical capital devastated Large share of rural population (79% of total as of 2015, 14 th in the world) Highly open and market oriented economy (merchandise trade at 146% of GDP in 2015, 8 th in the world) High foreign aid, investment, and financing. Substantial dollarization
I. What are the challenges to sustain strong economic growth?
1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Paddy Yield Kg/Ha Changing winds affecting agriculture Strong performance in agriculture up to 2011 was explained by three factors: International commodity price boom Land expansion Improvements in agriculture productivity 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 Rice Productivity gains Vietnam Bangladesh Phillipines Thailand Cambodia Going forward, Cambodia is expected to be able to grow largely due to productivity gains and cannot rely on further land expansion or a continued commodity price boom 1000 0 Source: World Bank staff calculations using National Accounts.
High export concentration in garments with some nascent diversification Over the last decade, products and markets have concentrated in textile and clothing (representing 70% of exports in 2014) 100% 80% 60% Cambodia (% total merchandise exports) Cambodia s garment exports are cheaper than average Export sophistication is low, although some value addition and some diversification beyond garments is observed 40% 20% 0% 1994 1999 2007 2014 Textiles & Clothing Footwear Vegetable Transportation Mach/Elec Wood Plastic / Rubber Other Source: COMTRADE
but there are challenges to the business environment Doing business in Cambodia, distance to frontier Cambodia 2016 Vietnam 2016 Resolving insolvency Enforcing contracts Starting a business 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Dealing with construction permits Getting electricity Trading across borders Registering property Protecting minority investors Source: Doing Business, the World Bank Group Getting credit
Investment is gearing towards construction, & fast credit growth poses macro-financial risks Percentage of GDP 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015/p Capital formation averaged 18 percent of GDP in 1994-2014. Vietnam and Thailand have been in the 30-40% Capital has increased in recent years, but mostly going to construction The investment savings gap increased from 2 to 10 percent of GDP since 2009 Credit growth booming at 30-40 percent growth rates, with MFI lending saturation Composition of investment Cambodia 30% Durable Equipment 25% Construction 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: National accounts of Cambodia
II. What can be done so that the benefits of economic growth are more widely shared?
Cambodia s performance in shared prosperity has been outstanding Lao PDR Philippines Vietnam Nicaragua Thailand Cambodia 60.0% Poverty incidence under national line Per capita consumption growth, bottom 40% 2008-2012 6.5% 50.0% 40.0% 2008-2013 4.9% 30.0% 2009-2014 4.7% 20.0% 2010-2014 4.5% 10.0% 2006-2012 1.7% 0.0% 2004 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2007-2012 1.5% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% Source: WB Staff estimates from CSES 2004 2013 and the Global Monitoring report, 2016.
but the economically vulnerable population remains large. Share of the population 100 90 80 0.8 2.2 2.4 1.4 1.6 15.7 Economic mobility in Cambodia 19.0 30.4 27.8 32.6 Poor and economically vulnerable population together still represent 65% of the total population 70 60 50 40 30 31.7 35.0 32.5 31.9 41.6 48.5 46.2 Slowdown in agriculture may expose the economically vulnerable 20 10 0 21.4 16.7 14.4 4.2 19.6 2.7 17.8 1.7 2004 2007 2009 2011 2012 Extreme poor Moderatetly poor Economically Vulnerable Economically secure Middle class At 70% of total health expenditure, out-of-pocket expenditure in Cambodia is among the highest in the World Source: WB Staff estimates from CSES.
Nutrition problems still prevalent Nutrition problems are still prevalent across quintiles (42% stunting for children under 5 for first quintile), and partly related to limited access to sanitation Prevalence of stunting, height for age (% of children under 5) Guatemala (2014) Bangladesh (2014) Philippines (2013) Cambodia (2014) Vietnam (2010) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Q5 Q1 Source: World Development Indicators.
and secondary completion rates are low Cambodia secondary completion rates (45% for lower secondary) are inferior to lower MICs (72% completion rate), partly due to access issues. Lack of human capital limits mobility and prospects for economic upgrading School completion, 2013 Cambodia Lower-MICs Guatemala Bangladesh Nicaragua Vietnam Philippines 0 20 40 60 80 100 Primary Completion Rate Lower Secondary Completion Rate Source: GIS and EMIS, from Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports, and JICA.
Governance challenges impair the quality of public service delivery Governance indicators (-1.5 to 1.5 scale) Control of Corruption Rule of Law Cambodia 2014 Cambodia, 2005 L-MICs, 2014 ASEAN-5, 2014 Voice and Accountability 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5 Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terroris m Government Effectiveness Low effectiveness of the bureaucracy affects public service delivery Corruption affects the cost of firm operation, as well as access to public services Weak rule of law has resulted in disputes around land Lack of sufficient voice and accountability could eventually lead to social instability Regulatory Quality Sources: World Governance Indicators, World Bank Group.
Percent Gender equality and social challenges 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Gender equality in the enterprise Cambodia is a country with one of the highest female labor force participation (85% in the garment sector) Cambodia stands out in % of firms with a female in top management, but only 18.8 percent of nonproduction jobs are done by women Women earned 22% less than men after controlling for all other socioeconomic and geographic characteristics Percent of firms with a female top manager Proportion of permanent full-time production workers that are female (%) Proportion of permanent full-time non-production workers that are female (%) Domestic violence and discrimination remain serious problems for women, LGBTI people, and people with disabilities Sources: Enterprise Surveys, World Bank Group. Note: latest available year
III. What can be done to improve environmental sustainability?
Rapid natural resource degradation is heightened by high exposure to environmental risks. Forest cover decreased by 28% between 2000 and 2014, driven largely by agricultural development, and 45% of original, natural wetland area has been lost 100 90 80 70 Environmental sustainability indexes Cambodia Lower-MICs World Climate change (a 2 C rise by 2050) could reduce Cambodia s GDP by 1.5% in 2030 and 3.5% in 2050 60 50 40 30 Cambodia is ranked 145 th out of 178 countries on the 2014 Environmental Performance Index 20 10 0 Environmental Health Ecosystem Vitality Exposure Vulnerability Source: World Risk Index, 2015. United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security.
Identifying priority areas for development
How can Cambodia achieve lasting strong, inclusive, and sustainable growth? I. What are the challenges to sustaining strong economic growth? Fostering economic diversification by improving the business environment, building infrastructure, and supporting public and private sector investment and savings in a sustainable manner II. What can be done so that the benefits of economic growth are more widely shared? Cambodia has lagged behind in some human capital dimensions, and would need to enhance the provision of public services need to build human assets III. What can be done to improve environmental sustainability? Improved natural resource management and infrastructure to keep pace with strong growth and rapid urbanization
Initial ideas: Competitiveness and Diversification Rationale: Sustain growth rates and create jobs To increase economic competitiveness and diversification, Cambodia can: 1. Reduce the cost to firm establishment and operation Including business environment, informal fees, electricity cost... 2. Improve public investment management To boost infrastructure in an effective and sustainable way 3. Boost domestic savings and private investments Into tradable sectors 4. Modernize agriculture To unleash its export potential 5. Strengthen regulation and supervision of financial sector
Initial ideas : Build Human Assets Rationale: Facilitate economic mobility and shared prosperity 1. Invest in early years Nutrition and preprimary education 3. Build safety nets and shield households from shocks 2. Foster attainment of secondary education and above 4. Public administration reform For improved service delivery
Initial ideas : Improved natural resource management Rationale: Improve the sustainability of the economic model given increasing food and energy needs 1. Mitigate negative urbanization externalities 2. Enhance forest and aquatic ecosystem management
Next Steps Results from the SCD is expected to help inform: Diagnosis of development challenges and selection of policy priorities A wide number of stakeholders (government, private sector, international donors, civil society, academia) The planned Country Partnership Framework of the World Bank Group with Cambodia that will follows this SCD
Questions for discussion How do you see Cambodia's development achievements to date and its development challenges and goals for the future? In your view, what are the three most important development priorities for Cambodia to focus on and address over the next 5-10 years?
Thank you! A summary of recommendations and participant list from this meeting will be sent to you and posted on the WBG Website Suggestions or comments should be sent to: cambodia@worldbank.org There is an online survey available on the World Bank Cambodia website: www.worldbank.org/en/country/cambodia