UNEQUAL prospects: Disparities in the quantity and quality of labour supply in sub-saharan Africa World Bank SP Discussion Paper 0525, July 2005 Presentation by: John Sender
TWO THEMES A. There are important DIFFERENCES between and within African economies in: i. The QUANTITY of labour supplies ii. The QUALITY of labour supplies B. The huge gaps in labour quality in the capacity of the labour supply from some countries and some households (especially rural households) to work productively - have important POLICY implications
A.i. Labour supply quantitative differences Size of total population Rate of growth of population Age structure of population Degree of urbanization Rate of growth of urbanization Age structure of population Rate of growth of working-age population Age and Gender Impact of HIV/AIDS
Estimated and Projected Labour Force Losses as a Result of HIV/AIDS Estimated number of persons 15-64 years in the labour force who are HIV positive in 2003 Projected Cumulative mortality losses to the total labour force as a result of HIV/AIDS, as an equivalent proportion of the total labour force, 2005 Côte d Ivoire 399,400 5.2 Ethiopia 1,336,766 2.1 Ghana 292,297 1.5 Kenya 1,003,534 4.2 Lesotho 211,300 8.3 Malawi 737,700 6.9 Mozambique 1,128,500 2.4 South Africa 3,698,827 2.5 Swaziland 134,100 4.9 Uganda 454,242 8.4 Tanzania 1,401,300 3.3 Zambia 726,800 10.2 Total (Sub-Saharan Africa, 35 Countries, Weighted ) 18,610,517 3.2 Total (Asia, 5 countries) 4,886,600 0.2
A.ii. Labour supply qualitative differences Illiteracy rates Female and Youth illiteracy rates Educational attainment rates Malnutrition rates Life Expectancy/ Work Experience
Focus on intra-country differences in the quality of labour supply The supply of labour from some households especially female labour from poorer and rural households will have much less capacity to work productively than labour from other households within the same country, because of: Massive inequalities in the intra-country distribution of education health and other services
Inequalities in Educational Attainment Country: (date of DHS) Percentage Without Any School National Rural Urban Gini Cote d'ivoire (1994) Ghana (1998) Kenya (1998) Malawi (1992) Mozambique (1997) Senegal (1992) Tanzania (1999) Uganda (1995) Zambia (1996) 48 57.3 36 0.622 21.1 26.9 11.1 0.378 6.3 7 4.3 0.253 33.2 36.6 14.3 0.522 33.5 40.8 13.5 0.547 64.3 83.9 38.4 0.796 18.2 21.8 8.7 0.305 22.2 24.8 8.1 0.431 9.7 15.2 3.1 0.305
Indicators of Fertility and Health for Women and Children: Richest and Poorest Households Country Percentage of Women Aged 15-19 Giving Birth in One Year Percentage of Children Moderately and Severely Stunted Percentage of Malnourished Women Total Fertility Rate (Lifetime Births per Women) Poorest Richest Poorest Richest Poorest Richest Poorest Richest Cote D'Ivoire 19 7 34 13 11 6 6.4 3.7 Ethiopia 8 7 53 43 32 25 6.3 3.6 Ghana 13 2 35 10 18 5 6.3 2.4 Kenya 16 6 44 17 18 6 6.5 3.0 Malawi 19 14 58 34 10 6 7.1 4.8 Mauritania 9 5 39 23 17 9 5.4 3.5 Mozambique 19 13 48 22 17 4 5.2 4.4 Senegal 15 4........ 7.4 3.6 South Africa 11 2........ 4.8 1.9 Tanzania 20 8 50 23 12 7 7.8 3.4 Uganda 23 11 43 25 15 5 8.5 4.1
Ante- and Neo-Natal Health Care: Poorest and Richest Households Country Percentage of Women with 3+ Antenatal Care Visits Percentage of Births Attended by Medically Trained Personnel Poorest Richest Poorest Richest Cote D'Ivoire 26 75 17 84 Ethiopia 7 45 1 25 Ghana 59 91 18 86 Kenya 77 87 23 80 Malawi 77 86 43 83 Mauritania 16 75 15 93 Mozambique 30 75 18 82 Senegal 44 84 20 86 South Africa 78 90 68 98 Tanzania 82 93 29 83 Uganda 59 86 20 77 Zambia 80 92 20 91
B. Policy Implications Market friendly, conventional policies to promote selfemployment More radical policy interventions: i. Intervention to encourage production of female wage labour intensive crops by large and medium-scale agribusiness; ii. Concentrate physical and social infrastructure investments on areas with strong agro-export potential; iii. Invest to facilitate migration by the poorest from low-potential rural areas and to provide money transmission facilities in these areas
Political Voice and Bargaining Power iv. Invest to increase the bargaining power of the poorest, most disadvantaged labour market participants; v. Concentrate investment in education on the daughters of illiterate rural women v. Strengthen donor support for trade unions and organizations that represent workers; vi. Assist the organization, mobilization and education of poor, casual wage workers in the unenumerated sector; vii. Reverse donor neglect of investment to obtain reliable statistics, data on casual, seasonal, unenumerated and rural labour markets.
Defects of Existing Data Methodological and other defects are discussed at great length in the paper Here we can briefly point to the obvious dangers for policy making using the simplest of models
GARBAGE IN GARBAGE OUT