CHAPTER-V DYNAMICS OF POPULATION GROWTH. Human population is not static in place and time. It changes

CHAPTER-V DYNAMICS OF POPULATION GROWTH INTRODUCTION: Human population is not static in place and time. It changes at every point of.time and at every place. This change may be slow or rapid depending upon certain physico-socio-cultural factors. Most of the developing nations of the world are facing with the threat of population explosion. Accelerated decline in mortality is a common feature of the demographic experience of backward countries; in some, the rates are already as slow as observed in industrialised countries, '-in others they are fast approaching equality. No parallel trend is yet to be noticed in respect -of fertility. The increasing gap between- level' of fertility and mortality implies population upsurge of a magnitude unprecedented in the history of the,developed nations. This involves an inevitable price to the developing economies, but it may be rewarding to see how best to minimise it. Population explosion is an arithmetic truism; any variable growing at a constant rate is bound to explode. It becomes disastrous when it requires for its support on resources which refuse to grow except at a diminishing rate. The situation was well within control so long as the Malthusian devils of famines, epidemics and wars were in action. But what is the price that we have to pay for chaining these devils- Human disaster or race extinction? Self preservation and race perpetuation are the human instincts at least as long as man s sex or reproductive instinct, exists. If science does not open up new resources or new ways of using resources to assure the maintenance of growing numbers, value systems inhibiting fertility must evolved). Change in the size of a population, whether increase or decrease is called growth or population dynamics Postive or negative, growth of

: 84 : population comes from only three sources births, deaths and migration. It is not a separate aspect of people's existence, but the out come of these district factors, Population growth attracts wide notice, because people often feel that it is related to their national "survival". There are several ambitious theories which treat it in relation to social and economic development^). Natural increase or decrease depends upon the age structure, marriage pattern, economic level, socio-religious beliefs and values. A population containing a large number of.young people will have higher birth rate than a population consisting more of children and old people. The rate of growth is a function of the size of population already attained. Society exercises pressure on the individuals by religious, moral and legal sanctions sometimes with the object of quickening, and sometimes of retarding the growth of population. Man is the only animal that can direct its own evolution(3) Growth is regarded as the change in the size of population whether it increases(positive growth) or decreases(negative growth). It is the balance of births, deaths, immigrations and emigrations The growth of population between two periods of time is determined as: P2= P (B-D) (i - e) Where, P.,, is the population of a given region at time Pp, is the population of the same region at time B, is the births. D, is the deaths i,.is the immigrations e, is the emigrations The natural increase ( or decrease) is the margin or gap between the birth and death. The difference between immigrations and emigrations of the area over a time is termed as net migration(4). The relative change is measured by the ratio, i.e., P?- P^ and*it. is expressed in terms of per cent change. The change may be an increase or decrease depending on which population is

: 85 : arger P^or p (5). This growth rate may be calculated in terms of annual or decennial change.population is a dynamic variable. It changes numerically at every point of time. It is not correct, therefore, to assume that a fixed number of persons is added to a given size of population at the end of every year. Population growth according to the principle of "compound interest" rather than the 'simple interest'. The base is increased each year by the amount of increase during the preceeding year(6). Population Growth in India & Orissa: India had a very complex demographic history. It has a rapid growth of population. In India a child is born in every.5 seconds. In other wards about 2 crore people are added to our population annually. India's total population in 300 B.C. was about 0 crores, which was almost same till.600 A.D.(7).. But it rose to 2 crores in 800, 23.83 crores in 90 and 68.5 crores in 98. The total population of Orissa was 0.3 million in 90 which increased to 26.4 million in 98. The annual average or arthmetic growth rate of Orissa is. 2.5 per cent as against the all India figure of 2.48 per'cent. But the geometric growth rate is 2.24 per cent for Orissa as against 2.22 per cent for India(8). The growth rate of population in the first decade of the country was 0.57 per cent, owing to good agriculture, lack of any natural or artificial calamity. But the growth rate fell to 0.3 per cent during 9-2, the only decade which registered an annual decrease of population. This was caused by severe famines and epidemics of the year preceeding the cenus, of which the most devastihg was the nationwide influenza, plague, cholera epidemics of 98-9 and the First World War. Upto the year 92, the year'of the "great divide", the populate ion of India increased at a very low rate, rather say there was a negative growth rate or declination of population (Table 5.).

vo CO 90-98 79.9 39.34 o vs o in n OV in in oo ^r r~ K\ V 2.23 PERCENTAGE OF DECADAL POPULATION GROWTH.RATE IN INDIA AND ORISSA, 90-98 97-8 96-7 V I V in 0} 94-5 \ T" v~ T V V c\j <J\ 9-2 P opulation 90-24.75 24.80 2.64 s rn rn V m CM If 8 V V rṇ o i m in T otal 24.56 2.86 VS 6 eg 8.7 9.8 8 CTi 4' -.29 o ST VO Rural 46.02 tn (M CO m T- '3' d. C\j -I- m- -m- m 9.2 8.27 in m d Urban 20.7 in o in CM SI cn V d 0.22.94 m e- n 22.26 6.99 CvJ in 9.7.92 -.94-2.04 0.44 T otal 8 o T~ Rural ^T tn 4 R d 86.79 44.0 tn o d m 2.70 rn o Cvj 8.04 Urban fo r in c re a se and - f o r d ecrease. i i In d ia O rissa NOTE:

: 87 : The second phase, since 92 shows a continuous growth in population. The growth rate has been accelerating from decade to decade. There is an increase of 450 millions of population in 80 years, from 90 to 98. After 92, the growth rate has gone ahead from per cent to 24.75 per cent in 98. During the 30 years period from 90 to 93 the average growth rate of the State per decade was higher than the all India average and for each of the subsequent decades upto 96 has fallen behind the all * India rate. Again it shows a high growth rate of 25.05 per cent.in- 96-7 which falls down to 20.7 per cent with comparison to all India'growth rate of 24.75 per cent during the decade 97-8(Fig. 5-).. Over the period 90-8 (except the first decade 90-) the growth rate of urban population exceeds the rural population in India as well as Orissa. However, in 9-2 decade there was a negative growth rate in rural po" lation while the urban population increased appreciably for the country. The exceptions being during the decades 95-6 and 96-7 where the urban growth rate gives a low figure as compared to the decade 94-5 and 97-8. In case of Orissa, the rural growth rate was not only negative in 9-2, bt still higher than that of India, while the urban 'growth rate fell from 8.4 per cent in 90- to 2.30 per cent in 9-2. However, since 92-3 decade the rural population of India witnessed an increase of 0 per cent while the urban population increased by 9 per cent the corresponding figure for the state being nearly.9 and 2.7 per cent respectively. During the next decade 93-4, the growth rate of rural population maybe said to be marginal while the urban population made a rapid stride. But over the same period the state's picture shows a marked fall in the rate of growth of rural population and a substantial jump in urban population by 30 per cent, compared to 2.7 per cent in the preceeding decade. The 94-5 decennial percentage variation of rural population for

POPULATION GROWTH IN INDIA & ORISSA 90-98 ( Absolute, Urban & Rural ) Fig. 5-

: 89 : the country showed a comparatively downward trend than the previous decade I and the country witnessed the high rate of urban growth till 98. The grwoth rate of urban population in Orissa was quite better than the country, as a whole. During 95-6 there was a sudden rise in rural population when the urban population declined significantly compared to that of 94-5. It was mostly due. to change in definition of town adopted by the Census of India in 96. But, however, there was a tremendous boost in urban population. The decade 96-7 saw a nominal increase in rural and urban population of the country while in case of the state the rural population showed an increase where as the. urban population declined to 66.30 per cent compared to 86.79 per cent in the preceeding decade i.e. 95-6. This was due to the establishment of some major industries in the state. But the comparative regression in growth of urban population in the state' during 96-7 was perhaps due to the slow rate of industrialisation. Over the last decade 97-8, India's rural and urban population growth was consistent and progressive with 24.56 and 46.02 per cent as compared to 2.86 per cent and 38.23 per cent in 96-7 respectively. But in case of Orissa the rural.population gro th rate has declined to 5.73 per cent in 97-8 as compared to 22.26 per cent in 96-7, while the urban Orissa showed an increase from 66.30 per cent in 96-7 to 68.54 per cent in 974-8. From the above analysis it si found that, the urbanisation in the state can be said to be rather consistent. The figure 5.2 indicates the absolute growth of population in the districts of Orissa for the year 98. The districts of Cuttack, Puri, Baleshwar, Dhenkanal, Sambalpur, Sundargarh and Koraput shows the highest growth rates i.e.- above 20 per cent while the districts of Ganjam and Keonjhar show the growth rate of 5'to 9 per cent followed by Balangir Phulbani and Kalahandi have a less growth rate i.e. 0 to 4. ner cent. The Mayurbhanj district depicts the lowest growth rate of below

22 ORISSA r GROWTH OF POPULATION Fig. 5 2

: 9 : 9 per cent. This growth rate in different districts of Orissa is due to the * development of of physical, social and economic status from coastal to western region where as less growth rate is in the backward and tribal dominated areas. Pattern of Urban Growth (District-wise): Urbanisation was only started in the district of Koraput in 92, Keonjhar and Phulbani in 94 and Sundargarh in 95. But the districts of Cuttack, Puri, Ganjam and Baleshwar had urbanisation since 90. However, their percentage share in urban population was gradually declined. This ecrease was much more in Baleshwar district (Table 5.2). The coastal districts like Cuttack, Puri and Ganjam the districts of western Orissa like Sundargarh, Sambalpur and Balangir and Koraput had grown in respect of their urbanisation in 98. Over the period 90-4 the total urban population of the state increased nearly one and half times and over the post-independence period i.e. during 95-8 the total urban population increased by more than five times. On the whole during the' last eight decades since 90, the total urban population of Orissa was multiplied by a little over 2 times. The district of Phulbani is found to be least urbanised. The state experienced a growth rate of 2.23 per cent in respect of urbanisation and districts like Sambalpur, Kalahandi, Mayurbhanj and Balangir showed maximum growth rate. Baleshwar and Cuttack had the lowest growth rate among all the districts of Orissa during 90-8. During the pre-independence period, most of the districts showed a declining decadal urban population growth rates. Since 94 almost all the districts showed rather consistent and increasing growth rate till 96. But when we take Into account the growth rate over the decades 96-7 and 97-8, the districts of Sambalpur', Sundargarh, Keonjhar, Phulbani, Balangir,. Kalahandi Koraput and Ganjam grew at an increasing rate in respect of urbanisation.

VO rv> 90-8 2 6 4 6. 8 I i o in V- in o cv) V m leva =go in 4* rn as d Ch co o V as as rn co '=go rn tv V" Os eg rn co tv 7 7 5-8 2 rn eg eg V. V 00 V" >- cn VO 03 eg c\l in IV rn CM rn tv vo vo VO tv V V CO a co rn VO in n Os n d tv tv VO in in 00 eg co CMV4* 03 in rn a in rn CM V VD vo S s 4-4- 4-4- 4~ PERCENTAGE OF DECINNIAL VARIATION OF URBAN POPULATION FROM-90-8 (V Rj I eg 5 OS v vo I n Os 94-5 i n Os v rn Cvj as V eg i T" as. V r as v- LPl Cvj eg V" tn in vd tv in * rn CO tv tv as Os CM i o tv o eg Cvj eg vo IV tn r tv in o -^r in rn 8 eg- in o eg V ft CO 4* S o eg V" V as vd V~ n vo cv vo eg* in m o rn o o 4* o in d (V vd eg CM CM CM 4- rn V o V eg eg d l eg in V" V rn O eg eg vo eg d rn eg as d erv 8 eg vj- as vo CO ft 4* c\l oo d OS rn *g V- v (Nv 'd- V VO VO rn rn vd rn 0 tv vd eg 4" as eg rn "St vo (V 00 as o eg ft CM ^t vo eg ft Q evi id o vo rn in rn d Os *3- in in os 00 OS eg Os o rn 4- i Hh l 4-4- in o CNJ rg 8 o s eg in in in V- V in eg eg eg m eg vo eg tn eg in co CO o V CM <T~ tv CT V- IV OS in VO V V o 'g- 00 t os cvj i i 4- -4 l 4-4- 4- o in in rn R tn CO v~ 8 xj- 00 S V in ej d l i 4" i l 4* i a. ' ft d rn I I ft vo CO KV r* oo ^r Bv o l IV vo rn vg- <r~ in m 4- i rn eg V -St 4-8 eg ft vd vo Ov V VO CO o 4- R cm V* o rn eg 4- vo n as V* O 00 4- D is tr ic t c-> 3 ex rh 03 JO CO -C Li cd to Li cd T3 CO eg c. CO sr, TV) c o0) PI rn TV) a CO JC O l s 'St u co 5* x: w 0) r-h 0 CQ in o 03 4.p 3 O VO r CO s <D f. Cl V- r4 Ccfl JO ( J -J.n a, CO Li H b0 C 03 i i cd cu as *r4 i s 6 V" -> D co Cj :2 V Y~ n> CD cvj v~ H Li <2 rn v~ ft

: 93 : Over the decade 97-8 the districts of Dhenkanal and Mayurbhanj were «found to be growing at a rapid rate followed by Phulbani, Puri and Keonjhar districts. This is perhaps due to the growth of new towns(9)(fig. 5.3). Pattern of Urban Growth (Towns Class-wise): The growth rate of population among the six different size-classes of towns of Orissa has varied from -6.32 per cent in class-v towns to 85.63 per cent in class-iv towns. Whereas the state's average is only 68.54 per cent d ring the decade 97-8(Table 5.3). There were no class-i towns during the period 90-4. It started only in 95. During the decade 90-, the class-vi towns had shown maximum growth rate i.le. 22.67 per cent where as the class-iii towns with least growth, i.e. -3*58 per cent, the class-iv towns with.58 per cent, the class-ii towns with 2.27 per cent and the class-v towns with 45-42 per cent. The state's average ' was only 8.04 per cent during this period. During the decade 9-2 there was a low growth rate in comparison to other decades. The decadal variation of population for class-ii, class-iii and class-vi towns were negative, i.e., less than the state's average growth rate of 2.30 per cent. But in case of class-iv and class-v towns, the growth rates were much high, i.e., 20.54 and 47-84 per cent respectively as against Orissa's urban population growth rate of 2.30 per cent. This low population growth was due to the epidemic of Cholera, Plague and influenza during this decade.' During the decade 92-3 the state's average growth rate had gone upto 2.70 per cent as -gainst 2.30 per cent in 9-2. The class-ii, class-iii and class-v towns had shown an increase of growth rate, i.e.,27.95, 33-55 and 8.4 per cent respectively where as class-iv and class-vi towns had shown negative growth rate, i.e., -8.80 and -58.88 per cent respectively. There was a positive population growth in almost all the towns of Orissa during.the decade 93-4. It varied from 0.74 per cent in

IECENNIAL VARIATION OF URBAN POPULATION 95-8 DHENKANAL KEONJHAR *- -PHULABANI PURI ^-'BALESHWAR SUNDARGARH MAYURBHANJ ORISSA KORAPUT SAMBALPUR CUTTACK BALANGIR GANJAM KALAHANDI 800-780- 240-220- 200-80- 60-40- BO- 00- SO SO- 40-20- to- 98 Years Fig. 5-3

: 95 PERCENTAGE OF DECINNIAL GROWTH OF POPULATION IN DIFFERENT SIZE CLASS OF TOWNS IN ORISSA, 90-8 CO rn CD V in l CM o ^r rn 30 CM 00 to IV & 03 rn s tv 8 CM V C\J 8! 30 n 30 CM V 5T* \ r- I 8 rn rn CM cm 'vt CO *< 03 3D K3 LC\ i i v~ id in in n 3D n 8 D- i OD C\J co \ 3D Ch l 'ST T I -t v i co o- CM 03 fc- -=a- o co in tn 03 O ^r K3 i i cm co 03 V 03 K3 8 8! CO tv co CM v~ K3 ^ l ' l i rn 03 m 03 V" 03 30 tv rn tv V CO IV I C\j co 8 5 '=t 3D n i 'sa- n ^3 03 CO 03 rn ^ v~ t v i a Q\ 8 V V \ m i i o 3D 00 LT3 o d CD n vt 03-3- ^ i v- m n CM 03 I i i ' rn "O' I l 00 V I in ^r V 8 8 3D o' 6 oo IT* rn o rn l V in 3D V- rn 03 l l!- i -I v i in o eg o rn i i 03 n 00 IV I. tv N3 to' CO co CM C\J 00 K3 v- n Cr\ T~ i I i i v i 9 03 -=3- o 8 C\J i 03 V n CO V cm CM d IV V CM CM CM '3- a\! i v i tv 00 CO CM V V" 00 n n 3D o cm* rn V- n CM* co * &! ^r V CM i i I W o \ E-n I <H O (A 3 CO 3 i i l 06 > i l i l t t t l M f > > O l i l < co CO m co co CO i CO <L> I co CO co co co CO CO N 0) CO c6 a) c8 CO M H r H f -j r-h f i»! r- DC co i O o. o o o o O

class-iii towns to 68.64 per cent for class-v towns as against the state's average growth rate of 30.03 per cent. It was the only decade in the pre- Independence period when there was a positive growth of population in case of almost all the classes of towns of Orissa. Though the growth rate of the urban population of the state had gone upto 44.0 per cent during the decade 94-5, as against 30.03 per cent during 93-4, the individual size class of towns had shown rather a wide variation. Except class-v owns with 54-57 per cent population growth, others had low growth rate. The class-ii and class-iv towns had shown negative growth rates with -6.08 and -5.09 per cent respectively. After the Independence during 95-6 all the classes of towns had an average growth rate of 86.79 per cent which was twice the growth rate of 94-5. Hence, it is said that the Independence of the country has much impact on its urban growth. During this period the class-ii towns had the highest growth rate with 358.69 per cent as against the lowest with.7 per cent in case of class-v towns. The class-i towns had a growth rate of 42.73 per cent which was half of the state's average growth rate; The other classes of towns, i.e., class-iii, class-iv, class-vi towns had 34s.75, 66.9 and 94.8 per cent of growth respectively.. The pattern of growth rate of urban population in Orissa changed again during 96-7. The average growth rate came down from 86.79 per cent in 95-6 to 66.30 per cent in 96-7. The class-i towns had a high growth rate i.e., 382.88,-er cent. But class-iii towns and class-v towns had 89-32 per cent and 29.07 per cent respectively. Whereas class-ii, class-v and class-vi towns had shown neg tive growth rate i.e. 78.57, 4.99, and 43-44 per cent respectively. The large towns or class-i towns had contributed about 382.88 per cent of growth while the medium towns and small towns had contributed 29.47 and 7*0 per cent respectively(io).

e o " i 8 o o t *, GROWTH IN PERCENT g to n> o> O w oo o *% o o

: 93 : The cities like Cuttack 43-98 per cent, Rourkela 9-06q?er cent Bhubaneswar 76.07 per cent, Berhampur 52.94 per cent and Sambalpur 82.0 per cent had under gone a high per cent of growth. Cuttack, Berhampur and Sambalpur are the three regional commercial centres and centres of three distinct cultural regions which are well-connected with national road and rail networks. Bhubaneswar is the State Capital, a new planned city and well-connected with national road, rail and air routes. Rourkela is an &n important industrial centre of the state. During the last decade i.e. 97-8, all the classes of towns had.positive growth rates- except the class-v towns which had negative growth rate -6.32 per cent. The- highest growth rate was occured in class-ii towns 445-43 per cent followed by class-iv towns 85.63 per cent, class-i towns 83.0 per cent, class-vi towns 65-2 per cent and class-iii towns 25-94 per cent (Fig. 5-4). The large towns had the maximum growth rate 83-0 per cent, while the small towns had the minimum growth rate 40.40 per cent. The medium towns had almost medium growth rate 75-84 per cent. The average growth rate for all the towns wa 68.54 per cent. During this period there was very little change in the general tendency of urban phenomena(table 5-3). Pattern of Urban Growth (Town-wise): During the last decade 97-8, Paradip had the highest growth rate accounting 392.80 per cent followed by Anandapur 289.8 per cent, Jharsuguda 2.86 per cent, Malkanagiri 07-83 per cent, Bhubaneswar 07.80 per cent, Angul 99-49 per cent and Rourkela 87-02 per cent. Paradip the only port town of Orissa had the highest growth rate, because of its port facilities and industrial potentiality- Anandpur attracts more population because of its administrative arid mining facilities, Jharsuguda- a railway junction, vast commercial activities, and Malkanagiri an ago-industrial centre. Bhubaneswar being the state's capital a planned city and a cultural

GROWTH IN PERCEN T Fig. 5-5 la)

fig. 5 '5 tb )

POPULATION GROWTH OF SELECTED C L A S S - III TOWNS IN ORISSA DURING 90 TO 98 DHENKANAL BHAWANIPATNA BARGARH KEONJHAR ADA Nl HENORAPARA. SUNCARGARH TlTLAGARH JAJPUR PARALAKHEMUNDI BIRAMITRAPUR YEA Fig. 5-5 (C ) ±N3Da3d Nl HAMOd

POPULATION GROWTH OF SELECTED CLASS-IV TOWNS Fig. 5 5(d)

POPULATION GROWTH OF SELECTED CLASS-V & CLASS-VI TOWNS 20-0- INDEX 00-90- 80-70- 60-50- \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ CLASS-V Nayagarh. ------------- Khariar ------------------ KHatlkote Chandabali Bellaguntho ------------ CLASS-VI Gopalpur... 40. 30-20- 0-0- 0-20- 30- ^ 95 ' 96 ig7l 98 Census Years Fig. 5-5 (e>

: 204 : stronghold has also a rapid growth rate. Rourkela the Steel city%of Orissa, grew rapidly because of its industrial expansion. Angul is growing fast because of the location of the National Alluminium Industrial Complex(NALCO). The small towns are growing slowly in a normal way due to lack of diversi- fied industrial and commercial functions(appendix-ill)(fig. 5-5;a,b,c,d,e). FERTILITY AND BIRTH-RATE: Fertility is the most important demographic variable.( ). The growth of the population of the present day world depends entirely on human fertility. Any society replenishes itself through the prpcess of human fertility. Thus, in population dynamics, fertility is a positive force, through which the population expands, counteracting the force of attraction caused by mortality. If this replacement of human number is not adequate - that is if the number of deaths in a particular society continues to be more than that of births, that society would face -the danger of becoming extinct. On the other hand, excessive replacement of human numbers can also create several social and political problems for a country. The process of replacement of a group through fertility is a complicated process. Within the biological limits of human fertility, several social cultural, physiological as well as economic and political factsrs are found to operate and these are responsible for determining the levels and differentials of fertility. In fact today rate of fertility and related population problems are being studied by the academicians and the policy makers'. There is no aspect of human life 'which is not influenced by fertility today. The fertility of women has always been a mater of vital concern. to all the people(2). Fertility is generally used to indicate the actual- -reproductive performance of a woman or groups of women. The crude birth rate (number of births-per 000 population per year) is only one measure of fertility(3). Fertility measure the rate at which a population adds to itself by- births

: 205 : and is normally assessed by relating the number of births to the size of % some' section of population, such as the number of married couples of the numbers of women of child bearing are i.e. an appropriate yard stick of potential fertility(4) The study of fertility does not indicate the level: of fecundity for which there is no direct measurement(5) Fecundity is a* biological potential - the physiological capacity to participate in reprod- uction. The absence of this potential is known as infecundity or sterility. It is the capacity to conceive or bear children(l6). There are various factors which influence fertility. These factors are of various types,.such as, ) Biological factors - Health, diseases and food habits etc. 2) Indirect Social Factors - a) Age of marriage, b) Polygamy, c.) separation and divorce, d) widowhood, e) post-partum abstinence, f) abstinence and menstruation, g) celebacy, h) frequency of coitus 3) Direct factors influencing Fertility - a) Oral pills, b) Loops, c) Condom d) Abortion, e) Infanticide 4) Social and Economic Factors - a) food supply, b) economic conditions, c) family system, d) social status of women e) political system, f) attitude towards children, g) intellectual freedom, h) role of _ science, i) desire to maintain status, j) Urbanisation.. The measurement of fertility may be related to something e.g. total population of the country/region, total moment of the child bearing age, total married women etc.(7). As the number of births in a year in any given population will depend on its size, it is necessary to convert' the births into some sort of a rate to make any comparison (over pace or over time)feasible. Demographers have evolved a number of measures of

: 206 : fertility but we shall discuss below the more commonly use ones. ^The various rates obtained by making use of vital registration data are known as "direct fertility measures". While those, are derived from census statistics alone are known as indirect fertility measures(8). The most widely used measure of fertility is the crude birth rate. It is represented as.:cbr= x K where CBR is the crude birth rate B is the number of live births in a calander year in a given geographical area P is the population of that area at the mid of the year K is the constant, i.e. 000(9) In this measurement only live births are considered, because these affect the size of population of any given area at any time. There are always a certain amount of still births in any population, but they are excluded from the computation of crude birth'rate(20). The total population is considered at the mid of the -year and not at the beginning or at the end of the year, because, population is continuously changing by births, deaths and migration and if population is consider at the biginning of the year, the rate will be high and if we take at the end of the year, the rate will be low. Decade Table - 5.4 AVERAGE DECADAL BIRTH RATE IN INDIA AND ORISSA 90-8 Birth Rate India - Orissa 90-49.2 39.8 ' 9-2 48. ' 38.5 92-3 46.4 37.3 93-4 45.2 35.7 94-5 39.9 28.2 95-6 A\.7 24.7 96-7 4.2 26.7 97-8 34.0 32.65 '

DECENAL BIRTH RATES 5N INDIA & ORISSA 90-8 Fig. 5-6

: 208 : TqIdIs * 5 5 ANNUAL BIRTH RATES IN INDIA AND ORISSA, 970-79 *.( Total, Rural, Urban ) 970 97 972 973 974 975 976 977 978 979 T 36.8 36.9 36.6 34.6 34.5 35.2 34.4 33.0 33.3 33.2 India R 38.9 38.9 38.4 35.9 35.9 ' 36.7 35.8 34.3 34,6 34.4 U 29.7 ' 30. 30.5 28.9 28.4 28.5 28.4 27.8 27.8 28.0 T 38. 34.6 34.5 34.8 33.6 33.6 34.8 29.9 32.9 32.4 Orissa R 38.5 34.7 34.7 35.0 33.9 33.8 35.3 30.2 33.3 30.6 U 34.2 33.0 3.7 22.7 30.5 30.7 29. 26.0 28.9 32.5 During the last eight decades the bith rate in India has been declining from 49.2 in 90- to 34.0 in 97-8. The sudden slump during 94-5 (39-9) was because of the difference in -methodology adopted for estimated age structure which, in turn, affected the estimate of the birth rate(2)(fig.5.6). The National Sample Survey and the Sample Registration System have both consistently shown that the birth rate has tended to be lower in the urban areas than in rural areas since 970(Table 5.5). Lowurban fertility is caused by unbalanced sex-ratios, high living standards economic insecurity and unemployment, social capability, occupational status female employment, educational facilities and the availability of clinical aids towards family planning. Rural societies also have different fertility levels. Just as in the other parts of the world, in India too, rural farm population are usually more fertile, than the rural non-farm. Within the rural farm population owners and tenants have a larger number, of children than the field labourers and amongst the agricultural labour families, the landless labour families are even smaller in size. Poverty in their case plays on important role in accentuating the process of multiplication^) (Fig. 5-7).... The birth rate in all the states of India is not uniform. By and large, it was high (more than 45) in Assam and Gujarat during 95-6.

X ------X - ANNUAL BIRTH RATES IN INDIA & ORISSA 970-79 Y o a rs Fig. 3-7 INDIA Rural Urban Absolute. ORISSA Rural.. Urban. Absolute. IN D EX i

: 20 : Table - 5.6 ANNUAL BIRTH RATES IN THE DISTRICTS OF ORISSA, 980 & 98 Districts 980 98 Total 6.3 5.4. Balangir Rural 5.9 4.8 Urban 20.9 2.6 Total 0.3 0.2 2. Sambalpur Rural 9.4 9.2 Urban 5.7 5.8 Total 0.3 8.7 3- Sundargarh Rural 7.7 6. Urban 6.3 4.4 Total 0.3.9 4. Keonjhar Rural 0.6 2.3 Urban 8.2 9.3 Total 2.7 3.5 5. Mayurbhanj Rural.9 2.6 Urban 25. 27.5 Total 3.0.2 6. Baleshwar Rural 2.7 0.7 Urban 7. 5.7 Total 3.3 3,8 7. Cuttack Rural.6 2.6 Urban 27.5 24.6 Total 0.6 0.9 8. Dhenkanal Rural 0.5 0.5 Urban 2.0 6. Total. 2.5 9. Phultjani Rural.0 2.4 Urban 2.5 4.8 Total 2.6 9.4 0. Kalahandi Rural 2.6 9.7 Urban 2.7 5.8 Total 5.6 5.. Koraput Rural 4.9 4.4 Urban 0.7 0.7 Total. 0.5 * 5.7 2. Ganjam Rural 7.6 3.9 Urban 27.4 26.3 Total.9 5.3 3. Puri. Rural 9.0,.3.5 - Urban 28.2 9C C

: 2 : The birth rate is also high (more than 35) in the states of Utter Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat. It is lowest in the state of Kerala. (26) which is probably due to high level of literacy. The average birth. rate of India was 36 in 98. The high birth rates in the districts of Orissa mentioned in the Table 5.6 is mostly due to the rural dwellers who' depended solely on agriculture. They are not highly educated and also prefer child marriage. They have the desire to increase their family members soon after their marriage, so that they can assist in various field of earning. Secondly the proportions of muslims and other religions have no control on their birth rate. The birth rates is high in the districts of Ganjam, Balangir and Puri whereas it is low. in the districts of Koraput followed by Sundargarh in 98. When the rural-urban birth rates is studied it is seen that the rural birth is lower than the urban, except in the district of Kalahandi and Keonjhar for the year 98; because of the concentration of less urban population. The rural birth rate is high, i.e. 4.8 in Balangir and lowest 4.4 in Koraput district. The higher urban birth rates may be mainly due to the better reporting in municipality and N.A.C. areas which is due to the attitude of the peoples of different religions. The unskilled and daily wage labourers are found more here who have get pleasure in sex after a hard days labour in industrial sector. Tnis urban birth rate varies from 27.5 in Mayurbhanj to 5.8 in Kalahandi district in 98. In 980, Berhampur had the highest birth rate (37.3) followed by Puri (36.0), Cuttack (34.) and Balangir (26.0). Brajarajnagar had the lowest (4.2) birth rate. The average birth rate for all the towns of Orissa was 25.6. In 98, there was a decline in the birth rate for all the towns of 0rissa(20.6) and also for individual towns. Baripada had the highest (39.0) whereas Brajarajnagar was the lowest(4.0).the birth rate is decreasing day by day in the state as well as in almost all the towns of Orissa. (Table 5.7). «

: 22 : Table - 5-7 ' BIRTH RATES IN TOWNS WITH POPULATION 30,000 AND OVER IN 980-8 OF ORISSA Towns 980 98 Birth Rate Birth Rate. Balanglr 26.0 26.5 2..Baleshwar 20.3 20.3 3. Barbil - 0. 4. Bargarh - 23.3 5. Baripada - 39.0 6. Bhadrak 4.5.6 7. Bhawanipatna ' - 0.4 8. Bhubaneswar 23.7 9.8 9. Birmitrapur - 5. 0= Berhampur 37.3 33.8. Brajrajnagar 4.2 4.0 2. Chowdwar -.8.5 3. Cuttack 34. 28.5 4. Dhenkanal - 22.9 5. Jatni - 29. 6. Jeypore 7.0 8.3 7. Jharsuguda -.4 8. Koraput - 4.6 9. Paralakhamundi - 9.3 20. Puri 36.0 32. 2. Rajgangpur - 9.0 22. Rayagada - 7.4 23. Rourkela(ST).5 0.? 24. Rourkela(ST) 2.7 8.7 25. Sambapur 24.7 22.3 26. Sunaibeda - 9. All Towns 25.6 20.6

: 23 : MORTALITY & DEATH RATE: Mortality is also one Of the most important components of population change.. Mortality plays a dominant role in determining the growth of. population. In fact, the single most important contribution of demography has been the revelation of the fact that sharp declines in the mortality rates, rather than any rise in the fertility rates, have been responsible for bringing about' a rapid growth of population. Mortality is the.rate of death in the population. Death is the permanent disappearance of all evidence of life at any time after birth (post natal)(23). Death can occur only after live birth. Therefore, mortality is closely associated with live birth. Death prior to live birth is not included in mortality. It is known s still birth(24). The most important causes of high mortality rates are ) Famines and food shortages, 2) Epidemics, 3) Recurrent works, 4) Poor, sanitary conditions. However, after the agricultural and industrial revolutions mortality rates have declined everywhere, because of; ) the spread of European settlemtns all over the world; ii) development and growth of transport facilities due to which food cold be easily sent to different areas; iii) increase in per capita income which led to availability of nutrious food; iv) technological development and improvements in the standard of living; v) improvements in sanitary conditions; vi) social reforms decreasing industrial hazards and improving health of working population; vii) the development of asepsis (precautionary exclusion of pathog'enic micro-organisms) and antisepsis (killing inhibiting the growth.of micro-organisms already present); viii) development of immunology to eradicate chicken pox, small pox, cholera, sheep anthrox, ' hydrophobia diphtheria, tetanus, typhoid, yellow fever, scarlet fever, poliomyelitis, influenza, measles, whooping cough etc.; ix) use of drugs or chemotherapy; and x) increase in the supply of food. *

: 24 : Various measures have been used in the analysis of mortality. However, the crude death rate is the most simple and commonly used.. It is a ratio of the total registered deaths of a specified year to the total mid year population multiplied by 000. It is computed as follows: CDR = p X R Where, CDR, is the crude death rate; D, is the total number of deaths registered during a* calender year; P, is the total population at the mid year, and K, is the constant, i.e. 000 Another important index of mortality is the infant mortality. It is particularly important due to the fact that in all most all- the countries it is invariably high during the first year of life. Infants are defined in demography as an exact age group, namely, age, "Zero" or those children in the first year of life, who have not yet reached age one(25). The most important factors about infant mortality age genetic or biological and environmental. The former are the endogenous factors and the- later are the exgenous factors. The biological factors include the age of the mother order of birth, time interval between births, weight of the child at birth, multiple births, premature births, etc. It has been observed that foetal and neonatal mortality rates are higher at the younger age of the mother (below 9) at first parity and for the first birth order. Upto the age of 29 o the mother these mortality rates decline and increase after it. Tne environmental factors include physical social, cultural, and economic conditions affecting mortality particularly during the post neo- natal period. Most of the post neo-natal deaths are due to communicable diseases of digestive and respiratory system and non-availability of medicine in some countries. Some important environmental factors include congestion, insanitation, lack of sufficient sunshine, fresh air, etc.

: 25 : There is high rate of mortality among the illegitimate infants. The infant mortality rate is generally computed as a ratio of infant deaths registered in a calender year to the total number of live births registered in the same year. Mathematically it is represented as: IMR = -SoX K B where, IMR is the infant mortality rate, j dq, is the number of deaths below the age of registered during a calender year. B,is the number of live births registered during the same year K,is the constant, i.e. 000 Death rate in India upto 92 was very high due to the spread of epidemics such as, plague, influenza, etc. and occurrance of local and regional famines. But, the death rate has been decreased since 92 due to the development of a better transport system to carry food from one part of the country to another, better health measures to control epidemics; and large scale industrial and technological development. It has been decreased from 48.6 in 92 to 4.8 in 98(Table 5.8). Table - 5.8 DEATH RATES IN INDIA AND ORISSA, 90-8 Year D e.a t -h s India per 000 p o p_u.l a t i o n ^Orissa India Orissa IMR 90-42.60 35.90 278 9T-2 48.60 35.40 228 92 *-3 36.30 30.80 207 95-4 3.20. 28.40 92 94-5 27.40 26.40 40 95-6 22.80 6.20 4 96-7 8.80 5.50 2 97-8 4.80 3.08 IMR refers Infant Mortality Rate.

DECENAL DEATH RATES IN INDIA & ORISSA 907 8 Death Rate in IOOO Persons w w O O O u» O. I9QI 9 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 Census Years Fig. 5 8

: 27 : Table - 5-9 ANNUAL DEATH RATES IN INDIA AND ORISSA, 970-79 ( Total, Rural & Urban ) * T 970 5.7 97 4.9 972 6.9 973 5.5 India R 7.3 6.4 8.9 7.0 U 0.2 9.7 0.3 9.6 974 975 976 977 978 979 4.5 5.9 5.0 4.7 4.2 2.8 5.9 7.3 6.3 6.0 5.3 ' 3.9 9.2 0.2 9.5 9.4 9.4 8.4 -.. T 6.4 5.5 20.0 8.2 Orissa R 6.8 5.9 20.6 8.8 U.4 0.0 2. 0.6 5-8 7.7 5.8 6.6 4. 5.0 6.3 8. 6.3 2.2 4.5 5.4 9.9 2.7 9.9 9.6 9.8 0. Rural- Urban Differentials: Like birth rates, the death rates are also much larger, in rural areas compared to urban areas (Table 5.9).In Kerala,.the difference between rural and urban death rate is, by and large, less one point. In Maharashtra this difference is of 3.4 points(26). In the rural areas of Orissa the death rate was 5-4 whereas in urban areas, it was 0. in-979. The death rate in urban Orissa is around 5 point less to that of the state Ls average of 5.0. The state's death rate in total, rural and urban surpasses the national average of 2.8, 3.9 and 8.4 in total rural and urban respectively for 979(Fig. 5.9). The table 5.0 gives a clear picture of the annual death rates and infant death rates in total, rural and urban population in the districts of Orissa, 98. The reason for high death rates in the less.developed districts like Mayurbhanj(6.), Phulbani(5.9) and Balangir(6.0), is due to the inhospitable climate, unfavourable terrain and less medical facilities available the rural & tribal inhabitants. The urban death rates is higher than the rural i.e. highest 2. in Mayurbhanj, followed by 9.8 in Cuttack and lowest 2..8 in Sundargarh districts, whereas the rural death rates varies from 6.0 in Balangir to 2.7 in Sundargarh district. The death rates in coastal.belt is comparatively high because of natural calamities

ANNUAL DEATH RATES IN INDIA & ORISSA 970-79 Urban. ------------------ Urban -------------- Rural.----------------- Rural... Absolut# ----------------- Absolut* x X Fig. 3-9

Table - 5.0 ANNUAL DEATH RATES AND INFANT DEATHS IN THE DISTRICTS OF ORISSA, 980 & 98 Districts D.R. 980 IDR D.R. 98 IDR Total 5.7 45 4.5 38. Sambalpur Rural 5.8 4 4.3 22 Urban 5.4 55 5.7. 57 Total 3.4 39 2 7 37 2. Sundargarh Rural 3.6 36 2.7 55 Urban 2.9 4 2.8 4 Total 5.2 50 4.3 55 3. Keonjhar Rural 5.3 48 4.3 49 Urban 3.8 68 4.4 85 Total 7. 39 6. 55 4. Mayurbhanj Rural 6.8 36 Gj y 29 Urban 2.0 72 2. 83 Total 5.2 58 4.8 5 5. Baleshwar Rural 5. 59 4.6 49 Urban 6. 57 6.9 64 Total 5.0 68 4.4 64 6. Cuttack Rural 4.6 66 3.7 60 Urban 9. 74 9.8 83 Total 6.3 54 5.3 42 7. Dhenkanal Rural 6.3 5 5.2 40 Urban 5.8 84 5.6 5 total 8.3 96 5.9 87 8. Phulbani Rural 8.4 95 5.9 87 Urban 5.9 0 7. 98 Total 8.0 50 6.0 4 9- Balangir' Rural ' 8.2 49 6.0 39 Urban 6.9 58 6.5 53 Total 6.7 40 4.5 44 0. Kalahandi Rural 6.8 38 4.6 43 Urban 5. 70 5-0 80 Total 3.8 36 5. 44. Koraput Rural 3.8 46 5.0 40 Urban 3.9 39. 4.2 58 Total 5.9 68 5.6 66 2. Ganjarrf Rural 5.6 80 5.3 67 Urban 7.6 79 7.5 6 * Total 5.6 59 5. 75 3- Puri Rural 4.6 6 4.7 70 Urban 7.3 56 7.6 62' Source - Director of Health, Dept, of Vital. Statistics, Govt, of Orissa, Bhubaneswar.

: 220 : like flood, cyclone etc. The infant death rates.show the similar pattern being more in urban areas than rural, exception in Ganjam and Puri districts where the rural infant death rates is high because of the lack of proper plans and programmes for the rural and urban development simultaneously. Infant Mortality Rate: The infant mortality rate is considered to be a fairly sensitive index of the condition of the health of a region. It is affected by both biological (endogenous) and environmental(exogenous) conditions. It is somehow difficult to control the biological causes of infant deaths. But the environmental causes, like nutrition and prenatal care, sanitory conditions, control of diseases to which infants are highly prone, etc. can be controlled by various health measures(27). In India, the infant mortality rate is still high even though it has been declined by nearly 50 ' per cent during the last fifty years. It has been declining continuously(table 5.8). The Sample Registration System has estimated that the infant mortality rate in the years 970 and 97 were 33 and 3 in the rural areas, 86 and 8 the urban areas and 25 and 22 in the country as a whole respectively(28). Death Rates in the Towns of Orissa: In 980, the death rates in the towns of Balangir, Baleshwar, Berhampur, Cuttack and Puri were more than the average urban death rate of Orissa, i.e. 8. per thousand persons, where, as other towns had a lower death rate. Brajarajnagar had the lowest death rate i.e. 0.6t followed by Bhadrak(Table 5-).In 98, the death rate further declined. The average death rate declined to 6.8 persons. But in some towns like Cuttack, Phulbani etc., it increased to some extent. The death rates were l6.2(baripada), 5.7(Puri), 3.6(Cuttack), and 9.9(Berhampur). Rajagangpur had the lowest dpath rate with person followed by Choudwar with.4 per thousand. Out

: 22 : Table - 5. DEATH RATE, IN-FAflT DEATH RATE AND MATERNAL DEATH RATE IN TOWNS WITH POPULATION 30,000 AND OVER IN 980-8 Towns 980 98 D.R. I.D.R. M.D.R. D.R. I.D.R. M.D.R.. Balangir 8.3 67 5.0 7.5 55 7.4 2. Baleshwar 8.7 64 6.9' 9.8 92 9-7 3. Barabil - - - 3.2 57 4. Bargarh - - - 4.9 3-5. Baripada - - - 6.2 8-6. Bhadrak 3-4 34-3.9 38-7. Bhawanxpatna - - - 7.2 27-8. Bhubaneswar 4.6 5 0.2 4.4 59-9. Birmitrapur - - ' -.6 25-0. Berharapur 0.3 5 8.0 9.9-63 7.2. Brajrajnagar 0.6 5 -.4 50 _ 2. Choudwar - - -.4 8-3.- Cuttack 3.0 8-3.6 9-4. Dhenkanal - - - 7.8 53.2 5. Jatni - - - 3.8 23-6. Jeypore 5.6 50-6.4 64 9.0 7. Jharsuguda - - - 3.2 74-8. Koraput - 3.8 68-9. Paralakhemundi - - - 6.3 58 6.5 20. Puri 4.4 69-5.7 79 0.9 2. Rajgangpur - - -.0 28-22. Rayagada - - - 4.6 05-23. Rourkela(C.T.) 7. 56 -.9 22 -.24. Rourkela(S.T.) 5.7 23-3.2 39-25.. SambaJLpur 6.2 44 0.4 5.4 36 26. Sunabeda - - -.4 30 2.7 All Towns 8. 57 2. 6.8 63 2.0

: 222' : of the total 26 towns with population 30,000 and above, only 8 towns had high death rates which were more than the average and other remaining 8 towns have a low death rate. So over all the death rate has been declining from time to time. In 980, all the towns of Orissa, had the Infant mortality rate of less than 00. The average' of all towns was 57- Cuttack, Puri- Balangir and Beleshwar towns had 8, 69, 67 and 64 infant death rates respectively. In 98, the infant death rates in most of the towns had increased. The average infant death rate in 98 was with the highest of 27 in Bhawanipatna, followed by Rayagada(05), Baleshwar(92), Cuttack(9), and Baripada(8) and the lowest of. 8 in Choudwar. This analysis clearly shows that the infant mortality is generally high in those towns where the birth rate is relatively high. On the other hand the maternal death rate is negligible in Orissa. It was only 2. in 980 and declined to 2.0 in 98(average of all towns). Birth Rate Versus Death Rate: The decreasing birth rate is closely followed by a falling death rate but the disparity between the two is clearly reflected in the decennial variations of population figure in the country and state(table 5-4 and 5-8). Over all in the post-independence period the birth rates_ and death rates are diminishing in total, rural and urban categories of population which is due to different steps taken by the government as well as the public consciousness. The country, now in the state of development. Figure 5.*0 depicts a close view of the annual birth rates and death rates of urban Orissa in'98. The districts of Mayurbhanj shows the highest birth rate followed by Ganjam, Puri and Cuttack whereas Kalahandi is the least i.e. 5.8 only. But in case of death rate Mayurbhanj, stands first followed by Cuttack, Gan jam, Puri, and lowest'being Sundargarh, i.e. 2.8 only. So it may be inferred that the death rate is much less in comparison to birth

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: 224 : rate which over all accelerate the growth rate of population. MIGRATION: Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Besides, natural increase, it is another source of of increase of population in a region. Migration takes place due to social, economic* political and cultural causes, out of which economic and political causes are the most important. The migration is the movement of living organisms from one place to another within the country or outside it. It is thus a.response of human organisms to economic, social and demographic forces in the environment(29). Hence, migration is a form of geographical mobility or spatial mobility between one geographical unit and other; generally involving a change in residence from the place of origin or place of departure to the place of destination or place of arrival(30). Migration may be classified into various types on the basis of three important aspects - temporal, spatial or regional, and size of population. Temporally, migration is of three types - permanent migration, temporaary migration and seasonal migration or transhumane. Spatially, migration is of immigration and emigration (international migration) and in-migration and outmigration internal or national or regional' migration). m And considering the population size involved in the process ' of migration, it is of two types - gross migration (total arrivals and deparatures i.e. volume of migration) and net migration (difference between the total arrivals and total departure or balance of migration). Employment, income and population growth are the most important factors which determine the extent and pattern of migration flows. People move out of the areas having less employment opportunities, low level of income and high rate of population grwoth to the areas having more employ-

merit opportunities, such as industrial centres, market and administrative centres etc. In Orissa or India, there is a low rate of migration, because of the continuous dependence of most of the people on agriculture, the caste system and strong community ties, diversity of language and culture, lack of education and low level of industrialisation. Migration can be measured from a direct method in which the place of birth, duration of living in the present place, etc. can be got frian the persons by asking a questionaire to them. And an indirect method follows an estimation basing on the total population at the end of the' period and the expected population growth which gives the estimates of the net change due to migration. The most important methods of arriving at such estimation are the vital statistics method and the rate of migration method. Vital Statistics method is used in the estimation of national as well as international migration of population. By substracting the natural increase from the total population change, the estimate of the net migration of any region can be achieved, as: Mn = (P - PQ ) - ( B - D ) Where Mn is the net migration, PQ is the population at the earlier census, Pp is the population at the later census B is the number of births D is the number of deaths. Likewise, the rate of migration method is used to estimate the net migration of population in any region as: M R = - X 000 in p Where Rm is the rate of migration during a specified migration interval M is the number of net migrants P is the average population of the area during the migration «interval.

: 226 : Similarly, IRm = p X 000 OR = S X 000 m P and GR =- ^ X 000 m P IR is the Immigration Rate 0Rm is the Out migration Rate GR^ is the Gross migration Rate I is the Immigration during the interval and 0 is the Out migration during the interval. Migration Trends in India: Migration rate in India was lower during the 960's in comparison to the 950's because of partition of India in 947. In 96, 'there were 35-3 million migrants (33 per cent of the total population) which rose to 60. million (30.4 per cent of the total population) in 97. There are usually four types of migration found in a region, such as: ) Rural to rural(rural turnover), 2) Rural to urban (rural push), 3) Urban to rural (push back, reverse or return migration), 4) urban to urban(urban turnover). On the basis of the distance'of movement, there are also thee types of migration - (a) short distance migration(intra-district migration), (b) medium distance migration(inter-district or intranstate migration), and (c) long distance migration(inter-state or intra national migration). Rural to rural migration formed the dominant migration streams in India according for more than 70 per cent of the internation migrations. Migration of female population is much higher than the males both in 96 and 97. In 97, the total migrants were 60. million out of which 2.2 million (i.e. 70 per cent) were females. In 96, out of the total migrants of 35.3 million, about 93-5 million (i.e. 69. per-cent) were females. This high proporation of female migration was due to social reasons such as marriage, widowhood, desertation and abandonment, etc.